Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Minnesota Safe D

Minnesota — 4th District

Portrait of Paul Wikstrom

Republican

Paul Wikstrom

The 2026 general election for Minnesota's 4th Congressional District features long-serving Democratic incumbent Betty McCollum against Republican challenger Paul Wikstrom, an engineering manager. McCollum, who has represented the district since 2001 and holds senior seats on the House Appropriations Committee, is campaigning on her legislative record of funding infrastructure, public education, and environmental protection. Wikstrom, who won the Republican primary in August 2026, centers his platform on combating state and federal program fraud, cutting taxes, reducing regulatory red tape, and tackling local crime. Major rating outlets—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—rate the race as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.5%
Republicans
3.9%
Kalshi ↗
Betty McCollum
96.0%
Paul Wikstrom
2.0%
Kalshi ↗
Paul Wikstrom
99.0%
Paul Xiong
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Betty McCollum
99.0%
Aswar Rahman
4.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Tax Policy

high salience

Wikstrom advocates expanding broad tax cuts and slashing federal regulations, whereas McCollum has voted against Republican tax and reconciliation packages in favor of targeted infrastructure and economic investments.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Opposes Republican tax and budget cuts

McCollum has consistently opposed Republican federal budget and tax reconciliation packages, voting against H.R. 1 ('One Big Beautiful Bill Act') and the FY2025 budget resolution in 2025. Her economic focus centers on federal investments in infrastructure, worker rights, and keeping local economies growing.

  • Voted Nay on H.R. 1, the reconciliation bill addressing federal funding, debt limit, and tax policy in 2025.
  • Voted Nay on H.Con.Res. 14, setting the FY2025 federal budget framework and debt limit reconciliation instructions.
  • Voted Nay on the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 during the 118th Congress.

“At home in Minnesota, Betty is working to improve our environment, promote excellence in public education, provide quality, affordable health care, and ensure investments in transportation infrastructure to keep our Twin Cities and East metro economy strong and growing.”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Supports tax relief and spending cuts

Wikstrom pledges to protect and expand tax cuts while containing federal deficit spending and national debt. He advocates eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, expanding the child tax credit, eliminating the death tax, and cutting regulatory red tape with a one-in/two-out rule.

  • Proposes eliminating taxes on tips, eliminating taxes on overtime, expanding child tax credits, and ending the death tax.
  • Calls for containing federal deficit spending and national debt.
  • Proposes cutting red tape by requiring Congressional approval for major regulations and implementing a 'One-in/two-out' rule.

“Protect and Expand Tax Cuts – eliminate tax on tips, no tax on overtime, expand child tax credits and eliminate the death tax to protect farms and small businesses.”

“Cut Red Tape - require Congressional approval for major regulations and follow One-in/two-out rule for new regulations.”

02

Government Oversight and Fraud Prevention

high salience

Wikstrom centers his platform on mandatory federal audits and conditioning spending on strict anti-fraud controls, while McCollum supports specific disclosure laws like the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports targeted transparency measures

McCollum supports specific federal government transparency legislation, such as voting in favor of publishing unclassified records regarding Jeffrey Epstein. She routinely opposes Republican spending control resolutions and full-year continuing appropriations bills.

  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) in 2025.
  • Voted Nay on Republican-led continuing appropriations and budget reconciliation bills.

“The Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R.4405) was a bill passed by the 119th Congress and signed into law by President Donald Trump (R) on 11/19/2025”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Demands mandatory audits and fraud controls

Wikstrom makes stopping government fraud a central pillar of his campaign, pointing to state spending scandals like Feeding Our Future. He advocates for mandatory federal spending audits, making fraud controls a mandatory condition for appropriations, and establishing a fraud crime stopper hotline.

  • Mandatory audits for all major federal spending.
  • Prohibit appropriation of program funds without required fraud-prevention controls.
  • Propose legislation creating a fraud crime stopper hotline.

“STOP THE FRAUD- I will fight to stop the fraud by restoring integrity to the government, so that your hard earned tax dollars are not stolen and diverted from the programs that help the vulnerable in Minnesota.”

“No appropriation without controls – require fraud-prevention measures as a condition of funding.”

03

Education

medium salience

Wikstrom calls for reducing administrative overhead and eliminating political agendas in favor of phonics and vocational training, whereas McCollum supports direct public education investments and college tuition affordability.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports public school and tuition affordability

McCollum focuses on promoting excellence in public elementary and secondary education while working to keep higher education tuition affordable for students and families. She is endorsed by Education Minnesota.

  • Supports increased federal funding and quality improvements for public K-12 education.
  • Advocates for affordable higher education tuition across the district's post-secondary institutions.
  • Endorsed by Education Minnesota.

“And, with more than twenty higher education institutions in the Fourth District, Betty is committed to keeping tuition affordable for students and families.”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Focuses on academic basics and vocational training

Wikstrom argues that Minnesota public school performance has declined due to rising administrative overhead and political agendas. He advocates refocusing classrooms on academic fundamentals like phonics, restoring reading specialists, and expanding vocational training.

  • Focus K-12 education on academic basics like reading phonics rather than political agendas.
  • Expand vocational and technical training opportunities.
  • Address growth in school district administrative overhead compared to direct teaching expenditures.

“Fix the Education System – prepare our children to succeed by focusing on academics, not political agendas, and expanding vocational training opportunities.”

“We need to return important learning tools to the classroom like phonics! We need to bring back reading specialists.”

04

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

medium salience

Wikstrom focuses on backing law enforcement and fully funding police to reverse rising crime, while McCollum links community safety to supporting first responders alongside gun violence prevention legislation.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports first responders and gun safety laws

McCollum supports federal investments in first responders and law enforcement resources to build safe communities. She complements this with support for sensible gun violence prevention measures, earning an 'F' rating from the NRA.

  • Supports federal funding for first responders and community safety resources.
  • Supports sensible gun violence prevention legislation.
  • Voted Nay on the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875).

“A strong supporter of safe and strong communities, McCollum supports federal investments for our first responders and ensuring that America’s infrastructure is world class.”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Supports fully funding police and reducing crime

Wikstrom focuses heavily on reversing rising crime rates, such as shoplifting and carjacking, in urban and suburban East Metro communities. He pledges full funding for law enforcement agencies and strongly opposes hostile political rhetoric against police.

  • Ensure full funding for law enforcement and supporting resources.
  • Address rising urban and suburban crime rates like retail shoplifting and carjacking.
  • Counter political hostility toward police officers to improve recruitment and retention.

“When elected I WILL HAVE YOUR BACK! I will work to make sure that law enforcement and supporting resources are fully funded.”

“Stop the Rising Crime Rates and Make our Communities Safer”

05

Environment and Energy

medium salience

McCollum prioritizes environmental conservation and Mississippi River protection legislation, whereas Wikstrom seeks to increase domestic energy production by cutting federal environmental regulations.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports environmental protection and river restoration

McCollum is a long-standing environmental champion in the House who serves on the Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee. She leads companion legislation for the Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative (MRRRI Act) and has been endorsed by Clean Water Action and the Sierra Club.

  • Leads House companion legislation for the MRRRI Act to restore and protect the Mississippi River.
  • Serves on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies.
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 1, the Lower Energy Costs Act, in the 118th Congress.

“Congresswoman Betty McCollum (D-MN-04) leads companion legislation in the US House of Representatives.”

“At home in Minnesota, Betty is working to improve our environment”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Supports unleashing domestic energy production

Wikstrom advocates for boosting American production of energy, food, and housing to drive down consumer costs. He calls for achieving energy independence by reducing federal regulations and creating a favorable investment climate.

  • Unleash domestic energy production to lower energy costs for families.
  • Pursue national energy independence and domestic manufacturing investments.
  • Reduce environmental regulations that inhibit business investment.

“Unleash American Production – increase American energy, food and housing supply by reducing regulation and improving investment climate.”

“Invest in America and Minnesota starting with domestic manufacturing and energy independence.”

06

Healthcare

medium salience

Wikstrom promotes market-based healthcare solutions like interstate insurance sales and drug price transparency, while McCollum focuses on protecting Medicare and securing federal reproductive healthcare rights.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports reproductive rights and Medicare

McCollum advocates for quality, affordable healthcare and the protection of Medicare and Social Security. She strongly supports reproductive health care access without government interference and voted against rolling back CDC COVID-19 rules.

  • Protects Medicare and Social Security benefits.
  • Guarantees access to affordable, quality reproductive healthcare.
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 185 (terminating CDC COVID-19 vaccination rules for foreign travelers).

“ensuring all women can access affordable, quality reproductive health care without government interference.”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Supports market competition and transparency

Wikstrom proposes free-market healthcare solutions to increase affordability, including price transparency and interstate insurance purchasing. He also advocates stopping pharmaceutical companies from blocking generic and imported drugs.

  • Increase price transparency across healthcare providers.
  • Allow purchase of health insurance across state lines.
  • Prevent pharmaceutical companies from blocking generic and imported medications.

“Bring Back Competition in Healthcare – increase price transparency, allow purchase of insurance across state lines, stop drug companies from blocking access to generics and imported drugs.”

07

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Wikstrom advocates for enacting stronger federal border security laws, whereas McCollum has consistently voted against Republican immigration enforcement bills such as the SAVE Act and Laken Riley Act.

Democratic Betty McCollum

Opposes Republican immigration enforcement bills

McCollum consistently votes against Republican-sponsored immigration enforcement bills, including measures requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voting and mandatory detention for non-citizens arrested for theft or DUI.

  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration.
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention for non-citizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 875 making DUI offenses grounds for non-citizen deportation.

“The Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act, or the SAVE Act (H.R. 22), was a bill passed by the House of Representatives on 4/10/2025... Vote: Nay”

Republican Paul Wikstrom

Supports enacting stronger border laws

Wikstrom advocates for federal legislation to strengthen national borders and immigration enforcement as part of his core campaign platform.

  • Enact federal laws to strengthen national borders and immigration enforcement.

“A Congress that will enact laws to further strengthen our country and our borders”

08

Foreign Policy and Defense

low salience

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports global leadership and defense funding

McCollum serves on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense and supports strong U.S. international leadership in global health, human rights, and food security. She authored the Global Food Security Act and recently criticized Donald Trump's comments blaming Minnesota for foreign cyberattacks.

  • Serves on the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense (formerly Chair and Ranking Member).
  • Author of the bipartisan Global Food Security Act.
  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY2024.

“Betty strongly supports a robust U.S. global leadership role in advancing international development, global health and human rights.”

“‘It’s outrageous that he blames American cities and the State of Minnesota for attacks from foreign entities that he provoked,’ she said.”

Republican Paul Wikstrom No documented position in our sources
09

Guns and Firearms Policy

low salience

Democratic Betty McCollum

Supports gun violence prevention laws

McCollum strongly supports sensible gun violence prevention legislation, a position that has earned her an 'F' rating from the National Rifle Association.

  • Supports federal gun violence prevention legislation.
  • Holds an 'F' rating from the National Rifle Association.

“She supports sensible gun violence prevention legislation which has earned her an “F” rating from the National Rifle Association (NRA).”

Republican Paul Wikstrom No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MN-04 House Election Winner

95.5% Democrats
3.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.5REPUBLICANS 3.9

Kalshi ↗

MN-04 House winner?

96.0% Betty McCollum
2.0% Paul Wikstrom
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MCCOLLUM 96.0PARTY 92.1PARTY 5.5WIKSTROM 2.0

Kalshi ↗

MN-04 Republican nominee?

99.0% Paul Wikstrom
1.0% Paul Xiong
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16WIKSTROM 99.0XIONG 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MN-04 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Betty McCollum
4.0% Aswar Rahman
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16MCCOLLUM 99.0RAHMAN 4.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.