Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Minnesota Likely R

Minnesota’s 1st District race

01

Economy & Cost of Living

high salience

Johnson proposes lowering consumer costs by ending foreign tariffs and wars while cutting working-family taxes, whereas Finstad focuses on locking in small-business tax deductions and curbing federal spending.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports lower costs and working family tax cuts

Jake Johnson argues that federal policies are inflating costs for groceries, gas, and utilities in southern Minnesota. He pledges to lower costs by ending foreign tariffs and military conflicts, cutting red tape for housing and childcare, and providing tax cuts for working families funded by closing corporate tax loopholes.

  • End tariffs that cost typical families an estimated $1,700 per year
  • Cut taxes for working families and small businesses, funded by closing corporate loopholes
  • Cut red tape to accelerate construction of new housing and childcare facilities
  • Take on corporate monopolies and healthcare companies to curb cost increases

“Groceries, gas, diesel, fertilizer, rent, electric bills, and health insurance cost way too much in southern Minnesota, and Washington is making it worse.”

“I'll vote to end the tariffs and the war, take on health insurers and Big Pharma, cut red tape so we can build more homes and childcare, stop data centers from raising electric bills, and cut taxes for working families, paid for by closing corporate loopholes.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports tax cuts and fiscal restraint

Brad Finstad focuses on reducing tax burdens and curbing federal spending to aid Main Street businesses and family paychecks. He supported key tax-cut legislation to protect business deductions and ease regulatory pressures.

  • Voted for the Working Families Tax Cuts to lock in the Section 199A small business deduction
  • Recognized as a 'Small Business Deduction Champion' by the National Federation of Independent Business
  • Supports reducing federal spending and easing regulatory burdens on local businesses

“Keep more money in your paycheck and give small businesses the certainty they need to operate and grow.”

“Brad voted for the Working Families Tax Cuts to lock in critical tax provisions, specifically the 199A small business deduction.”

02

Agriculture & Rural Economy

high salience

Finstad emphasizes expanded crop insurance and technology loans for family farms, while Johnson pledges a bipartisan farm bill, right-to-repair protections, and restrictions on foreign ownership of farmland.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports bipartisan farm bill and E15

Jake Johnson advocates passing a bipartisan farm bill that protects family farmers, ensures equipment right-to-repair, and extends year-round E15 fuel access. He strongly opposes foreign corporate purchases of local farmland.

  • Pass a bipartisan farm bill tailored to southern Minnesota family farms
  • Guarantee farmers the right to repair their own agricultural equipment
  • Extend year-round E15 fuel availability and crack down on foreign ownership of U.S. farmland

“I'll fight for a bipartisan farm bill, year-round E15, and full funding for our police departments and rural clinics.”

“Finstad took $22,500 from Syngenta, a company owned by the Chinese government and a company the Pentagon affiliates with the Chinese military, that owns 411 acres of farmland in Goodhue County; and he voted against cracking down on foreign purchases of American farmland.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports family farmers and crop insurance

As a fourth-generation farmer, Brad Finstad advocates for agricultural policies written by farmers to reduce input costs and strengthen crop insurance. He opposes federal regulatory burdens and state-level mandates like California's Proposition 12.

  • Introduced the USDA Express Loan Act and supported the PRECISE Act to increase access to farm capital and technology
  • Championed the FARMER Act to expand crop insurance coverage and reduce premium costs
  • Opposes regulations such as California's Proposition 12 that impact Minnesota livestock producers

“Ensure that federal farm policy avoids creating burdensome obstacles and is written by farmers, for farmers.”

“Brad recently introduced the USDA Express Loan Act and supports the PRECISE Act to expand farmer access to advanced agricultural technology and capital.”

03

Government Integrity & Budget Reform

high salience

Johnson advocates for a balanced budget amendment, stock trading bans, and strict fraud prosecution, while Finstad points to his support for spending limitation bills and transparency measures.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports balanced budget and ethics reforms

Jake Johnson calls the national debt an existential crisis and supports a constitutional balanced budget amendment. He refuses corporate PAC money and advocates for strict accountability in government fraud cases, congressional stock trading bans, and term limits.

  • Supports a balanced budget amendment and pledges to vote against debt ceiling increases until the budget balances
  • Signed a pledge to recover funds and seek prison sentences for individuals involved in state fraud scandals
  • Proposes banning congressional stock trading, prohibiting members from becoming lobbyists, and instituting term limits
  • Refuses all corporate PAC contributions and commits to holding 21 town halls per term

“I'm a math teacher and I believe the budget is an existential crisis, so I support a balanced budget amendment.”

“The first item in my Taxpayer Protection Pledge is to get our fraud money back and to require prison time for everyone (including government officials) who broke the law related to Minnesota’s massive fraud scandals.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports federal spending controls and transparency

Brad Finstad emphasizes Midwestern fiscal common sense, voting for statutory caps on federal spending and supporting government transparency measures. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing to oppose tax increases.

  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to raise the debt limit alongside spending caps and entitlement reforms
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act to compel publication of unclassified investigative records

“Washington, D.C., sorely needs some Midwestern common sense, and southern Minnesotans deserve a representative who will work hard to advance our priorities.”

04

Energy & Data Centers

high salience

Johnson calls for a moratorium on new data centers to prevent rising utility bills, whereas Finstad supports tax incentives and regulatory stability for data center and technology development.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports data center moratorium and consumer protections

Jake Johnson opposes un-vetted data center expansion in southern Minnesota, warning it inflates residential electric bills and consumes local resources. He calls for a moratorium on new facility construction until strict cost, environmental, and transparency safeguards are enacted.

  • Enact a moratorium on new data centers until utility rates, natural resources, and local economic benefits are secured
  • Prohibit non-disclosure agreements (NDAs) in public data center development negotiations
  • Criticizes tax breaks and federal preemption bills for AI and data center developers

“I support a moratorium on new data centers until there are protections to ensure costs don’t go up, natural resources are protected, economic gains are realized locally, and NDAs are prohibited.”

“Finstad took nearly $40,000 from data center builders like Google, Dell, and Honeywell and from utilities like Xcel Energy, then voted for $83 billion in tax breaks for data center developers and for a bill that would have blocked state and local rules on AI and data centers for 10 years.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports domestic energy growth and infrastructure

Brad Finstad supports boosting domestic energy development to lower input costs and build supply chain resilience. He supported federal legislation expanding energy production and providing development certainty for commercial infrastructure.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand oil, gas, coal, and critical mineral production
  • Voted for federal tax provisions and regulatory frameworks supporting tech and energy infrastructure

“Lower input costs, stronger supply chains, and a secure, high-quality food supply for the nation.”

05

Healthcare & Social Safety Net

medium salience

Johnson favors expanding Medicaid and SNAP while negotiating drug prices, whereas Finstad voted for fiscal reforms that included work requirements for federal benefit programs.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Protects Medicaid, SNAP, and Medicare

Jake Johnson opposes cuts to safety-net programs, arguing Medicaid and SNAP are vital for rural clinics and low-income families. He pledges to protect Medicare, Social Security, and veterans' benefits while curbing healthcare and prescription drug costs.

  • Protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP, and veterans' benefits from budget cuts
  • Take on health insurers and pharmaceutical companies to lower prescription drug and insurance prices
  • Ensure full funding for rural clinics and hospitals to keep healthcare accessible in small towns

“I care deeply about protecting SNAP, Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' benefits; passing a bipartisan farm bill for family farmers; keeping rural hospitals open...”

“...and he voted to cut $1 trillion from Medicaid that supports our rural clinics.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports targeted safety net reforms

Brad Finstad supports reforming entitlement programs to improve government program effectiveness and enforce accountability. He supported expanding work requirements for certain benefit programs while voting to protect specific public safety net structures.

  • Voted for the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, expanding work requirements for SNAP and TANF
  • Voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 regarding government pension benefit offsets

“...helping make our neighborhoods safer, our jobs more secure, our schools better, our government programs more effective, and our tax burdens lighter.”

06

Border Security & Immigration

medium salience

Finstad advocates completing the southern border wall and increasing immigration enforcement resources, while Johnson has not documented a specific platform on border enforcement in provided sources.

Democratic Jake Johnson No documented position in our sources

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports border wall and strict enforcement

Brad Finstad prioritizes securing the southern border, resuming wall construction, and giving law enforcement tools to detain and deport non-citizens charged with crimes. He co-sponsored legislation requiring citizenship proof for federal programs and voting.

  • Voted for H.R. 1 border security provisions to complete the border wall and hire additional Border Patrol agents
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act requiring detention of non-citizens arrested for burglary, theft, or shoplifting
  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act of 2023 and voted to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
  • Co-sponsored the Deporting Fraudsters Act and supported mandatory detention for serious criminal offenses

“Continue to keep our border secure, restore the rule of law, resume construction of the southern border wall, and alleviate staffing shortages for Customs and Border Patrol.”

“Brad secured the largest border security investment in history through H.R. 1 to complete the border wall, increase immigration enforcement resources, and hire new border patrol agents.”

07

Elections & Voting Rights

medium salience

Finstad supports federal legislation requiring proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote, while Johnson has not documented a public stance in campaign materials.

Democratic Jake Johnson No documented position in our sources

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports citizenship proof for voter registration

Brad Finstad supports implementing federal safeguards to ensure only U.S. citizens vote in federal elections. He co-sponsored legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voter registration and supported excluding non-citizens from congressional apportionment counts.

  • Co-sponsored and voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote
  • Backed the Equal Representation Act to prevent non-citizens from being counted in congressional apportionment
  • Supports the Minnesota Voter Integrity Act

“Implement common-sense safeguards to ensure that only U.S. citizens can vote in our federal elections and to protect individual liberties from left-wing efforts.”

“Brad co-sponsored the SAVE Act, which requires proof of U.S. citizenship and identity to register to vote in federal elections.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

MN-01 House Election Winner

60.0% Republicans
40.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31REPUBLICANS 60.0DEMOCRATS 40.0

Kalshi ↗

MN-01 House winner?

61.0% Brad Finstad
41.0% Jake Johnson
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31FINSTAD 61.0PARTY 52.0PARTY 45.0JOHNSON 41.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.