Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Minnesota Likely R

Minnesota — 1st District

In Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, incumbent Republican Brad Finstad faces Democratic challenger Jake Johnson in the November 3, 2026 general election after both advanced from their August 11 primaries. Major rating outlets designate the race as Likely Republican or Solid Republican, reflecting the district's recent conservative lean. The contest hinges on economic policy, farm and rural initiatives, government ethics, and border security, with Johnson leveraging his background as a public school math teacher to critique rising costs and corporate influence while Finstad highlights his agricultural background and conservative voting record in Congress.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
82.0%
Democrats
18.0%
Kalshi ↗
Brad Finstad
82.0%
Jake Johnson
21.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Johnson advocates ending high tariffs and raising taxes on the wealthy to fund middle-class relief, whereas Finstad highlights locking in small business tax deductions and reining in federal spending.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Lowers costs and corporate monopolies

Johnson focuses on making life affordable for middle-class families by addressing inflation in groceries, utilities, and healthcare. He advocates ending broad tariffs, breaking up corporate monopolies, cutting red tape for housing and childcare, and providing tax relief to working families funded by taxes on the wealthy.

  • Calls to end massive tariffs that drive up prices and shut down export markets.
  • Proposes tax cuts for working families and small businesses paid for by closing tax loopholes for the super wealthy.
  • Advocates cutting red tape to build new homes and expand childcare options.

“I’ll vote to end the massive tariffs driving up prices and shutting down export markets.”

“And I will support tax cuts for working families and small businesses, paid for by raising taxes and closing loopholes for the super wealthy.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports tax relief and fiscal discipline

Finstad emphasizes reining in federal spending and cutting taxes to give small businesses certainty and relief to working families. He highlights his votes in favor of tax deductions for small businesses and key legislative spending cuts.

  • Voted for the Working Families Tax Cuts to lock in the Section 199A small business deduction.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) reconciliation bill in 2025.
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax increases.

“Keep more money in your paycheck and give small businesses the certainty they need to operate and grow.”

02

Agriculture and rural policy

high salience

Johnson focuses on right-to-repair rights, ending export tariffs, and passing a bipartisan farm bill, while Finstad emphasizes his background as a farmer, expanding crop insurance, and fighting federal and state regulatory burdens.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports bipartisan farm bill and repair rights

Johnson stresses the need to pass a bipartisan farm bill to support rural communities and small agricultural producers. He supports right-to-repair legislation for farm machinery, opposing trade tariffs that hurt exports, and investing in local agricultural innovation.

  • Calls for passing a bipartisan farm bill.
  • Advocates ensuring farmers have the right to repair their own equipment.
  • Opposes tariffs that shut down export markets and raise agricultural input costs.

“Finally pass a bipartisan farm bill and fund rural healthcare.”

“Our small towns need actual investments, not excessive regulations. That means finally passing a bipartisan farm bill, ensuring farmers have the right to repair their own equipment, and extending tax credits for health insurance.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Advocates pro-farmer policy and crop insurance

A fourth-generation farmer serving on the House Committee on Agriculture, Finstad pushes for farm policy written directly by producers rather than federal bureaucrats. He opposes state-level regulations like California's Proposition 12 and champions expanded crop insurance and agricultural credit.

  • Introduced the USDA Express Loan Act and supported the PRECISE Act to expand access to capital and ag tech.
  • Championed the FARMER Act to expand crop insurance access and lower producer costs.
  • Opposes state regulations like California's Proposition 12 that burden Minnesota livestock operations.

“Ensure that federal farm policy avoids creating burdensome obstacles and is written by farmers, for farmers.”

03

Government ethics and reform

medium salience

Johnson promises to reject corporate PAC money and ban congressional stock trading and lobbying, whereas Finstad highlights practical conservative work, signing anti-tax pledges, and voting for government transparency legislation.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Supports term limits and PAC restrictions

Johnson centers his campaign on government reform, refusing corporate PAC money to remain independent. He supports constitutional amendments establishing congressional term limits, banning stock trading and lobbying for members of Congress, and requiring a balanced budget.

  • Refuses all corporate PAC contributions.
  • Supports constitutional amendments for congressional term limits and a balanced budget.
  • Advocates banning members of Congress from stock trading and becoming lobbyists.

“Support term limits and refuse money from corporate PACs.”

“I will vote to ban members of Congress from trading stocks and from becoming lobbyists.”

Republican Brad Finstad

Promotes government transparency and fiscal pledges

Finstad emphasizes delivering practical Midwestern governance rather than seeking media attention. He supports federal transparency legislation and signed tax protection pledges to remain accountable to taxpayers.

  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) requiring public disclosure of investigative records.
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax increases.

“Washington has plenty of folks focused on “going viral” or getting the next 30-second TV soundbite. I’m there to make a positive impact for Minnesotans by helping make our neighborhoods safer, our jobs more secure, our schools better, our government programs more effective, and our tax burdens lighter.”

04

Border security and immigration

medium salience

Finstad champions border wall construction, mandatory detention, and expanded deportation enforcement, while Johnson has not published a formal position on border security.

Democratic Jake Johnson No documented position in our sources

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports strict border enforcement and wall construction

Finstad strongly favors physical border security, resuming border wall construction, and expanding resources for border patrol agents. He supports strict deportation enforcement for non-citizens charged with crimes.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act and the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2).
  • Co-sponsored the Deporting Fraudsters Act and voted to deport non-citizens convicted of DUIs.
  • Voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024.

“Continue to keep our border secure, restore the rule of law, resume construction of the southern border wall, and alleviate staffing shortages for Customs and Border Patrol.”

05

Election integrity and voting rules

medium salience

Finstad supports mandatory proof of U.S. citizenship for federal election registration, whereas Johnson has not documented a position on federal voting rules.

Democratic Jake Johnson No documented position in our sources

Republican Brad Finstad

Supports citizenship verification for federal voting

Finstad advocates strict federal safeguards to ensure only U.S. citizens vote in federal elections. He supports requiring proof of citizenship during voter registration and excluding non-citizens from census calculations for congressional seats.

  • Co-sponsored and voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.
  • Backed the Equal Representation Act to prevent non-citizens from counting toward congressional apportionment.
  • Supports the Minnesota Voter Integrity Act.

“Implement common-sense safeguards to ensure that only U.S. citizens can vote in our federal elections and to protect individual liberties from left-wing efforts.”

06

Healthcare and safety-net programs

medium salience

Johnson supports expanding rural health funding and reversing cuts to Medicaid and SNAP, while Finstad's campaign priorities page does not detail a standalone healthcare platform.

Democratic Jake Johnson

Protects healthcare access and safety-net benefits

Johnson stresses funding rural clinics to prevent local healthcare closures, extending health insurance tax credits, and protecting social safety nets. He calls for reversing recent cuts to Medicaid and SNAP and preserving Social Security, Medicare, and veterans' benefits.

  • Advocates funding rural healthcare to address local clinic closures.
  • Calls for undoing recent cuts to Medicaid (Medical Assistance) and SNAP.
  • Supports extending health insurance tax credits and protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans benefits.

“protecting Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans benefits, and undoing the recent cuts to Medicaid (Medical Assistance) and SNAP.”

Republican Brad Finstad No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MN-01 House Election Winner

82.0% Republicans
18.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 82.0DEMOCRATS 18.0

Kalshi ↗

MN-01 House winner?

82.0% Brad Finstad
21.0% Jake Johnson
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16FINSTAD 82.0PARTY 52.0PARTY 45.0JOHNSON 21.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.