Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Safe D

Michigan — 11th District

Michigan's 11th Congressional District is an open-seat election in 2026 following the decision of Democratic incumbent Haley Stevens not to seek re-election. State Senator Jeremy Moss won the August 4, 2026 Democratic primary, while Troy Mayor Ethan Baker advanced as the Republican nominee. Major nonpartisan election handicappers—including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill—rate the general election matchup as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
96.5%
Republicans
2.6%
Kalshi ↗
Jeremy Moss
97.0%
Ethan Baker
3.4%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Moss advocates federal regulations on corporate price gouging, affordable housing funding, and tariff rollbacks, while Baker emphasizes nonpartisan collaboration on local economic stability and flatter tax reform.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Lowers costs and regulates corporate pricing

Moss advocates tackling the cost-of-living crisis through federal investments in affordable housing, expanding Pre-K, ending costly foreign conflicts, stopping chaotic tariff policies, and curbing corporate price gouging. In state government, he supported tax relief for seniors and working families.

  • Invest in affordable housing construction and crack down on corporate real estate investors
  • Expand federal Pre-K and Head Start programs to save families on childcare costs
  • End monthly tariff changes and crack down on corporate consolidation and price gouging

“We are facing an affordability crisis, from groceries and gas to healthcare and childcare.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Promotes growth, infrastructure, and tax reform

Baker identifies the cost of living, economic uncertainty, local jobs, and infrastructure as critical issues requiring nonpartisan, collaborative solutions. In earlier platform positions, he called for flatter, smaller tax structures and reforming transportation funding to maximize infrastructure dollars.

  • Bring leaders together to address cost of living, economic uncertainty, and local job growth
  • Reform transportation dollar collection and expenditure to eliminate wasted infrastructure funds
  • Advocated making the tax code flatter and smaller

“The issues we’re facing—cost of living, economic uncertainty, local jobs, infrastructure, our mental and physical health, and safety at home and abroad—need to be addressed now and are too important to be handled through division alone.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Moss supports establishing a federal public health insurance option and expanding ACA protections, whereas Baker has advocated state-level market reforms while opposing Obamacare.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Supports public option and lower drug prices

Moss supports creating a robust public health insurance option as a pathway to universal coverage while preserving employer-negotiated plans. In the Michigan Senate, he restored state Medicaid and SNAP funding, enshrined ACA protections in state law, and worked to ban aggressive medical debt collection.

  • Establish a robust public option to expand coverage and lower health premiums
  • Lower prescription drug costs and prohibit aggressive medical debt collection
  • Enshrined Obamacare protections into Michigan state law

“I strongly support a robust public option as a pathway to universal coverage.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Supports market-based health reform and local solutions

Baker highlights mental and physical health as key priorities needing focused, collaborative solutions. In past platform statements, he opposed Obamacare while advocating that Michigan develop state-level models of healthcare reform.

  • Address mental and physical health needs through focused, collaborative solutions
  • Opposed Obamacare while encouraging state-level healthcare system improvements

“While we continue to fight against the negative impact of Obamacare, there is nothing that prohibits the State of Michigan from improving our health care system for our citizens and becoming a model of reform for the nation.”

03

Civil rights and abortion

medium salience

Moss strongly supports federal protections for abortion access and LGBTQ+ equality, while Baker was endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan in a previous state campaign.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Protects abortion rights and LGBTQ+ equality

Moss championed Michigan's constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights, passed the Reproductive Health Act, and sponsored legislation adding LGBTQ+ protections to the state civil rights act. In Congress, he pledges to pass the Equality Act and protect federal abortion access.

  • Pass the federal Equality Act to ban anti-LGBTQ+ discrimination in housing and employment
  • Vote to codify federal abortion protections and support reproductive healthcare access
  • Passed Michigan's Reproductive Health Act and expanded the Elliott-Larsen Civil Rights Act

“After Roe v. Wade was overturned, I championed the Michigan ballot proposal that restored abortion rights in our State Constitution and passed the Reproductive Health Act into law.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan

Baker received the endorsement of Right to Life of Michigan during his 2014 state legislative primary campaign. His 2026 platform statements focus primarily on unifying leadership and nonpartisanship rather than explicit social policy positions.

  • Endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan in 2014
04

Government ethics and reform

medium salience

Moss supports explicit federal bans on congressional stock trading and expanding public record disclosures, while Baker emphasizes restoring community trust through nonpartisan local governance.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Supports transparency and banning stock trading

Moss led state legislative efforts to open legislative and executive records to public disclosure. He supports a complete federal ban on individual stock trading and prediction market participation by members of Congress, staff, and executive administration officials.

  • Support a total ban on congressional members, staff, and administration officials trading stocks or using prediction markets
  • Led Michigan Senate efforts to expand public records transparency for the legislature and governor's office

“I support a total ban on members, staff, and the administration from participating in individual stock trades and prediction markets.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Emphasizes transparent local governance and trust

Baker emphasizes restoring trust and openness in government, pointing to his tenure as Mayor of Troy as evidence of rebuilding trust between local officials and the community. His general platform focuses on listening, respect, and collaborative leadership.

  • Promoted open, nonpartisan government leadership as Mayor of Troy
  • Prioritizes rebuilding public trust in government through respectful, solution-oriented dialogue

“He prioritized rebuilding trust between the city and the community it serves and has remained committed to that ever since.”

05

Environment and energy

medium salience

Moss supports transition to a clean energy grid and strict regulations on data centers, whereas Baker highlights his leadership on Great Lakes ecological and economic protection.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Supports clean energy grid and data center regulations

Moss advocates transitioning to a clean energy grid, protecting infrastructure against extreme weather, and holding environmental polluters accountable. He voted for state regulations governing data centers to safeguard local water supplies and protect utility ratepayers.

  • Voted for Michigan data center regulations protecting water resources and ratepayer costs
  • Support federal clean energy grid goals and funding for extreme weather infrastructure resilience
  • Advance legislative protections to hold environmental polluters accountable

“We have a moral imperative to make progress towards a clean energy grid, enact strong environmental protections, and better prepare our communities for extreme weather events.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Promotes Great Lakes ecological protection

Baker served as chair and U.S. Commissioner for the Great Lakes Fishery Commission, leading international efforts to protect the Great Lakes economy and ecology. His platform emphasizes bringing diverse groups together around shared environmental and economic challenges.

  • Served as chair and U.S. Commissioner for the Great Lakes Fishery Commission protecting ecology and economy

“In my work as Mayor of Troy, and working with mayors across our state and country, and leading international efforts to protect the economy and ecology of the Great Lakes—I’ve seen that same thing up close.”

06

Education

low salience

Moss advocates expanding federal Pre-K and Head Start funding, while Baker supports local decision-making over federal educational standards.

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Increases public school funding

Moss secured state budget funding for classrooms in Pontiac and consistently advocates protecting school funding. He supports expanding federal early childhood education access through Pre-K and Head Start programs.

  • Delivered state budget investments directly into Pontiac classrooms
  • Expand federal early childhood education access through Pre-K and Head Start funding

“I delivered an historic investment in our state budget to our county seat to invest in and grow downtown Pontiac, fix the MLK Bridge, and ensure more money goes into Pontiac classrooms.”

Republican Ethan Baker

Supports local control over standards

Baker supports raising educational standards through local decision-making rather than top-down, one-size-fits-all policies.

  • Opposed top-down educational standards in favor of locally established standards

“If we want standards, they should be established locally, with local groups making the decisions.”

07

Immigration and border security

high salience

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Dismantle ICE and create legal pathways

Moss calls for dismantling ICE in its current state, citing cruelty and chaos, and replacing it with a heavily trained, oversight-driven interior agency. He advocates legal pathways to citizenship for DACA recipients and long-standing undocumented residents, along with updating the visa system.

  • Dismantle ICE and establish an interior agency with rigorous training, oversight, and due process
  • Provide legal pathways to citizenship for DACA recipients and long-term undocumented residents
  • Revamp the visa system to meet labor and economic needs

“The cruelty and chaos caused by ICE cannot be repaired or reformed under Donald Trump and the agency must be dismantled.”

Republican Ethan Baker No documented position in our sources
08

Voting rights and elections

high salience

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Expands voting access and protects elections

As chair of the Michigan Senate Elections Committee, Moss drafted laws implementing 9 days of in-person early voting and sponsored elements of the Michigan Voting Rights Act. In Congress, he plans to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and oppose the SAVE Act.

  • Pass the federal John Lewis Voting Rights Act and oppose the SAVE Act
  • Authored Michigan laws establishing 9 days of in-person early voting before Election Day
  • Sponsered state voting rights legislation to safeguard ballot access

“The most critical thing a new majority must do is protect voting rights because voting rights secure all other rights.”

Republican Ethan Baker No documented position in our sources
09

Gun safety

medium salience

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Supports assault weapon bans and red flag laws

Moss co-founded the Gun Violence Prevention Caucus in Michigan and helped pass state legislation in 2023 establishing red flag laws, safe storage requirements, and expanded background checks. Federally, he advocates banning assault-style rifles and restricting firearm access for domestic abusers and suspected terrorists.

  • Ban assault-style rifles and prohibit firearm access for individuals with domestic abuse histories or on terrorist watchlists
  • Passed Michigan laws expanding background checks, safe storage, and red flag protective orders
  • Co-founded the Michigan Legislature Gun Violence Prevention Caucus

“We need to pass this legislation on the federal level to make sure every community has common sense gun safety protections, including banning assault-style rifles, expanding background checks, and ensuring that suspected terrorists and individuals with a history of domestic abuse cannot access firearms.”

Republican Ethan Baker No documented position in our sources
10

Labor and worker rights

medium salience

Democratic Jeremy Moss

Supports unions and PRO Act

Moss served in Michigan Senate leadership when the legislature repealed the state's right-to-work law. In Congress, he pledges to support the federal PRO Act, safeguard collective bargaining, and defend labor union organizing.

  • Support the federal PRO Act to protect workers' freedom to organize
  • Voted to repeal Michigan's right-to-work law as part of state Senate leadership
  • Protect collective bargaining against corporate opposition

“In Congress, I will continue to uplift organized labor, strengthen unions, and protect workers’ rights. I will proudly support the PRO Act and ensure that every worker has the freedom to organize.”

Republican Ethan Baker No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-11 House Election Winner

96.5% Democrats
2.6% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 96.5REPUBLICANS 2.6

Kalshi ↗

MI-11 House winner?

97.0% Jeremy Moss
3.4% Ethan Baker
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MOSS 97.0PARTY 94.9PARTY 3.8BAKER 3.4

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.