Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Toss-up

Michigan — 10th District

Portrait of Christina Hines

Democrat

Christina Hines

Portrait of Michael Bouchard

Republican

Michael Bouchard

Michigan's 10th Congressional District features an open-seat matchup between Democratic nominee Christina Hines and Republican nominee Michael Bouchard after incumbent Republican John James stepped down to run for governor. Located in Macomb and Oakland Counties, the district is a key battleground that Donald Trump won with 52.2% of the vote in 2024. The race hinges on cost-of-living concerns, manufacturing protections, border security enforcement, and education reform. Major election forecasters currently rate the general election as Lean Republican, Tilt Republican, or Toss-up.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
63.5%
Republicans
36.0%
Kalshi ↗
Christina Hines
65.0%
Michael Bouchard Jr.
37.0%
Kalshi ↗
Michael Bouchard
99.0%
Steffan Demetropoulos
2.0%
Justin Kirk
1.0%
Robert Lulgjuraj
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Christina Hines
99.0%
Tim Greimel
1.0%
Eric Chung
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy & Inflation

high salience

Hines focuses on raising wages, labor union protections, and corporate price-gouging accountability, whereas Bouchard emphasizes deregulation, protecting local manufacturing, and Trump-aligned trade policies.

Democratic Christina Hines

Lowers costs and strengthens unions

Hines focuses on reducing essential household expenses such as groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy. She advocates holding corporations accountable for price gouging, raising the federal minimum wage, expanding paid family leave, and passing the PRO Act to empower labor unions.

  • Lower essential costs including groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy
  • Hold corporations accountable for price gouging
  • Increase the federal minimum wage and expand paid family leave
  • Support the PRO Act and strengthen the National Labor Relations Board
  • Invest in public transit, defense, aerospace, and advanced technology innovation

“When I’m in Washington, I’ll work to lower the cost of essentials like groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy.”

“I’ll support small businesses and entrepreneurs who drive our local economy, stand with union workers, strengthen manufacturing and innovation, support our defense and aerospace industries, and fight to bring good-paying, family-sustaining jobs back to our district and across Michigan.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Promotes manufacturing and deregulation

Bouchard emphasizes protecting Michigan's manufacturing base and defending American jobs by cutting federal red tape. He aligns with Donald Trump's economic approach to bring manufacturing back from abroad and relieve cost-of-living pressures on local workers.

  • Support President Trump's efforts to protect Michigan manufacturing and American jobs
  • Bring manufacturing jobs back home to Michigan
  • Cut red tape and regulations crushing small businesses
  • Enact policies that lower everyday costs for working families

“I support President Trump’s efforts to protect Michigan manufacturing, defend American jobs, and ensure that our workers — not China or Washington bureaucrats — shape the future of our economy.”

“That means bringing manufacturing jobs back home and cutting red tape that crushes small businesses.”

02

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Bouchard supports building the border wall, restoring 'Remain in Mexico,' and deporting criminal undocumented immigrants, whereas Hines focuses border security on stopping fentanyl while opposing DHS enforcement policies that destabilize families.

Democratic Christina Hines

Supports targeted enforcement and border security

Hines advocates strengthening border security to combat the illegal flow of fentanyl and narcotics into local communities. She supports stricter criminal penalties for drug dealers alongside treatment options, while opposing Homeland Security policies that destabilize families.

  • Increase border security to intercept fentanyl and illicit narcotics
  • Impose stricter penalties for the sale of fentanyl while expanding addiction treatment
  • Oppose Department of Homeland Security policies that destabilize families or target communities unfairly

“I will also ensure state and local law enforcement agencies have the resources they need to combat the fentanyl crisis through increased border security, stricter penalties for the sale of fentanyl and other narcotics, expanded access to treatment and rehabilitation, and better job opportunities so fewer people are pulled into cycles of addiction and despair.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Supports strict border enforcement and wall

Drawing on his military deployment to the southern border, Bouchard views border security as an urgent national security crisis. He advocates completing the border wall, restoring the 'Remain in Mexico' program, ending catch-and-release, and deporting criminal undocumented immigrants.

  • Finish construction of the southern border wall
  • Reinstate the 'Remain in Mexico' policy
  • End catch-and-release practices permanently
  • Deport criminal undocumented immigrants to protect local security
  • Equip Border Patrol with resources to halt cartel fentanyl trafficking

“I stand for finishing the wall, restoring the “Remain in Mexico” policy, and ending catch-and-release once and for all.”

“We must secure the border, stop the flow of illegal drugs, and deport criminal illegals who endanger our citizens.”

03

Healthcare

medium salience

Hines supports federal protections and universal healthcare coverage, while Bouchard advocates free-market competition, price transparency, and consumer choice.

Democratic Christina Hines

Supports affordable, reliable healthcare coverage

Hines pledges to lower prescription drug costs and ensure every family has access to reliable, affordable healthcare. She supports universal healthcare protections and safeguarding Medicare and Medicaid against budget cuts.

  • Lower the cost of prescription drugs and medical care
  • Protect Medicare and Medicaid from federal spending cuts
  • Promote universal healthcare access for all families

“I’ll hold corporations accountable for price gouging, protect Social Security, invest in quality and accessible public transportation, including high-speed rail, and fight for healthcare that is affordable and reliable for every family.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Supports market-based, transparent healthcare choice

Bouchard supports a free-market healthcare system that gives families choice, lowers costs through price transparency, and maintains high-quality options. He strongly opposes single-payer government healthcare plans.

  • Empower families to choose their own healthcare plans
  • Lower healthcare costs through increased market transparency and competition
  • Oppose costly government-mandated single-payer healthcare plans

“I want you to pick the health care that works for you and your family. It should be low cost, high quality, and transparent about what you are paying for.”

“My opponent wants to pick your health care out for you in a one-size fits all socialist program. It would cost trillions.”

04

Education

medium salience

Bouchard promotes a federal Parents' Bill of Rights and a return to basic academic instruction, whereas Hines focuses on funding public school resources and expanding career and technical education.

Democratic Christina Hines

Supports public school funding and CTE

Hines focuses on equipping K-12 public schools with necessary resources for teachers and students. She also advocates expanding career and technical education (CTE) pathways to allow students to secure local jobs after graduation.

  • Increase classroom resources and support for public school teachers and students
  • Invest in career and technical education (CTE) programs
  • Regulate social media companies to protect youth mental health

“Ensuring our kids are set up for the future starts with improving education and making sure teachers and students have the resources they need to succeed in and out of the classroom.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Supports parental rights and basic academics

Bouchard favors refocusing public school curricula on fundamental academic subjects like reading, math, and science while removing political topics from classrooms. He supports a federal Parents' Bill of Rights to ensure parents retain oversight of their children's education.

  • Refocus K-12 instruction on core subjects: reading, writing, math, and science
  • Pass a federal Parents' Bill of Rights
  • Prepare students for trades, higher education, or entrepreneurship

“Our schools are supposed to teach kids the basics — reading, writing, math, and science — and prepare them for the future. But too many schools have lost focus.”

“In Congress, I’ll back a Parents’ Bill of Rights, so moms and dads always have a say in what their kids are being taught.”

05

Social Security & Medicare

medium salience

Both candidates pledge to protect Social Security and Medicare, but Hines focuses on resisting federal funding cuts while Bouchard emphasizes eliminating program waste and fraud.

Democratic Christina Hines

Opposes cuts to entitlement programs

Hines opposes federal spending cuts targeting Social Security and Medicare. She promises to safeguard these benefits so seniors can age with financial security and dignity.

  • Protect Social Security and Medicare from spending cuts
  • Strengthen protections for seniors against scam communications and financial fraud

“Cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and education, the haphazard firing of federal workers, and the rollback of environmental protections that safeguard Lake St. Clair and our Great Lakes all have real consequences.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Protects entitlements by eliminating fraud

Bouchard commits to preserving Medicare and Social Security for seniors who paid into the systems throughout their careers. He proposes securing the programs by identifying and removing administrative waste and fraud.

  • Protect Social Security and Medicare benefits for all eligible recipients
  • Root out waste and fraud within federal safety-net programs

“You paid into these safety-net programs and they need to be there for you. I will always protect Medicare and Social Security.”

“We need to root out the waste and the fraud.”

06

Government Reform & Ethics

medium salience

Democratic Christina Hines

Supports anti-corruption and stock trading bans

Hines champions ethics reform to restore public trust in government. She refuses corporate PAC donations, supports banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks, and calls for protecting Department of Justice independence.

  • Refuse corporate PAC contributions
  • Ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks
  • Ensure an independent, impartial Department of Justice free of political interference

“I do not take corporate PAC money, and I support a ban on members of Congress trading individual stocks, because no one should be able to profit personally from inside information while working families struggle to get by.”

Republican Michael Bouchard No documented position in our sources
07

Environmental Protection

low salience

Democratic Christina Hines

Supports Great Lakes environmental safeguards

Hines criticizes federal rollbacks of environmental regulations. She pledges to protect local freshwater ecosystems, focusing specifically on Lake St. Clair and the Great Lakes.

  • Protect Lake St. Clair and the Great Lakes from pollution and environmental damage
  • Oppose federal rollbacks of environmental regulations

“...and the rollback of environmental protections that safeguard Lake St. Clair and our Great Lakes all have real consequences.”

Republican Michael Bouchard No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-10 House Election Winner

63.5% Democrats
36.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 63.5REPUBLICANS 36.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 House winner?

65.0% Christina Hines
37.0% Michael Bouchard Jr.
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PARTY 70.0HINES 65.0JR. 37.0PARTY 36.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 Republican nominee?

99.0% Michael Bouchard
2.0% Steffan Demetropoulos
1.0% Justin Kirk

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BOUCHARD 99.0DEMETROPOULOS 2.0KIRK 1.0LULGJURAJ 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Christina Hines
1.0% Tim Greimel
1.0% Eric Chung
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HINES 99.0GREIMEL 1.0CHUNG 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.