Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Toss-up

Michigan’s 10th District race

Portrait of Christina Hines

Democrat

Christina Hines

Portrait of Michael Bouchard

Republican

Michael Bouchard

The election for Michigan's 10th Congressional District in 2026 is an open-seat battleground following Republican incumbent John James's decision to run for governor. Democratic nominee Christina Hines, a prosecutor and former law professor, faces Republican nominee Michael Bouchard, a U.S. Army veteran and Bronze Star recipient. The matchup hinges on economic issues including cost of living and manufacturing, border security, healthcare policy, and education.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
76.0%
Republicans
23.5%
Kalshi ↗
Christina Hines
76.0%
Michael Bouchard Jr.
24.0%
Kalshi ↗
Michael Bouchard
99.0%
Steffan Demetropoulos
2.0%
Robert Lulgjuraj
1.0%
Justin Kirk
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Christina Hines
99.0%
Tim Greimel
1.0%
Eric Chung
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Hines emphasizes corporate accountability, minimum wage increases, and labor protections to lower living costs, while Bouchard focuses on deregulation, cutting red tape, and supporting Donald Trump's manufacturing trade stance.

Democratic Christina Hines

Lowers costs and strengthens labor

Hines focuses on lowering everyday costs for working families, including groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy. She advocates for raising the federal minimum wage, expanding paid family leave, holding corporations accountable for price gouging, and strengthening labor unions through the PRO Act.

  • Proposes lowering costs on groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy
  • Supports raising the federal minimum wage and expanding paid family leave
  • Backs pro-worker legislation including the PRO Act and strengthening the NLRB
  • Advocates holding corporations accountable for price gouging

“When I’m in Washington, I’ll work to lower the cost of essentials like groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy.”

“I will fight to rebuild and strengthen the National Labor Relations Board and support pro-worker legislation like the PRO Act, so workers can organize, bargain fairly, and stand up for themselves without fear of retaliation.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Protects manufacturing and cuts regulation

Bouchard emphasizes protecting Michigan manufacturing and American jobs by supporting Donald Trump's economic policies. He advocates cutting red tape for small businesses and bringing manufacturing jobs back from China.

  • Supports President Trump's efforts to protect Michigan manufacturing and defend American jobs
  • Advocates cutting red tape and deregulation to support small businesses
  • Focuses on bringing manufacturing jobs back from China

“I support President Trump’s efforts to protect Michigan manufacturing, defend American jobs, and ensure that our workers — not China or Washington bureaucrats — shape the future of our economy. That means bringing manufacturing jobs back home and cutting red tape that crushes small businesses.”

02

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

Bouchard advocates finishing the border wall, restoring 'Remain in Mexico', and mass deportations, whereas Hines targets fentanyl trafficking alongside addiction treatment while opposing DHS policies that destabilize families.

Democratic Christina Hines

Combats fentanyl and protects families

Hines supports giving law enforcement resources to fight the fentanyl crisis through increased border security and stricter narcotics penalties. She also advocates expanding addiction treatment while pushing back against Homeland Security policies that destabilize families or target communities unfairly.

  • Supports increased border security and stricter penalties for fentanyl trafficking
  • Advocates expanded access to addiction treatment and rehabilitation
  • Opposes DHS policies that destabilize families or unfairly target communities

“I will also ensure state and local law enforcement agencies have the resources they need to combat the fentanyl crisis through increased border security, stricter penalties for the sale of fentanyl and other narcotics, expanded access to treatment and rehabilitation, and better job opportunities so fewer people are pulled into cycles of addiction and despair.”

“I will push back against Department of Homeland Security policies that destabilize families or target communities unfairly, and I will work to rebuild an independent, impartial Department of Justice where the rule of law is applied fairly, consistently, and without political interference.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Secures border and finishes wall

Bouchard views border security as a national security emergency based on his military deployment to the southern border. He supports finishing the border wall, restoring 'Remain in Mexico', ending catch-and-release, and deporting undocumented immigrants who commit crimes.

  • Supports finishing the southern border wall
  • Advocates restoring the 'Remain in Mexico' policy and ending catch-and-release
  • Calls for deporting criminal undocumented immigrants to stop cartel drug networks

“I stand for finishing the wall, restoring the “Remain in Mexico” policy, and ending catch-and-release once and for all. We must secure the border, stop the flow of illegal drugs, and deport criminal illegals who endanger our citizens.”

03

Healthcare and Senior Programs

high salience

Hines supports federal action to lower prescription costs and safeguard Medicare and Medicaid, while Bouchard promotes market choice and criticizes Democratic plans as government-run socialist programs.

Democratic Christina Hines

Expands affordable healthcare and benefits

Hines advocates for affordable, reliable healthcare for every family and opposes federal cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. She also prioritizes senior consumer protections, proposing stricter measures against scam calls targeting retirees.

  • Opposes cuts to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid
  • Advocates making healthcare and prescription drugs affordable for all families
  • Proposes legislation to end scam calls targeting seniors and strengthen consumer protections

“When I’m in Washington, I’ll work to lower the cost of essentials like groceries, childcare, housing, healthcare, and energy.”

“I will fight to end scam and spam calls from predators who target seniors, drain retirement savings, and prey on trust built over a lifetime.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Protects Medicare and market choice

Bouchard pledges to protect Medicare and Social Security by rooting out waste and fraud. He supports transparent, market-based healthcare choice for families while opposing single-payer or government-mandated healthcare systems.

  • Pledges to protect Medicare and Social Security by eliminating waste and fraud
  • Supports transparent, low-cost market choices in healthcare
  • Opposes single-payer healthcare plans, framing them as costly socialist programs

“I want you to pick the health care that works for you and your family. It should be low cost, high quality, and transparent about what you are paying for.”

“My opponent wants to pick your health care for you, in a one-size fits all socialist program. It would cost trillions and raise all of our taxes. I want you to pick the health care you want.”

“I will always protect Medicare and Social Security. We need to root out the waste and the fraud that threatens these critical programs.”

04

Education

medium salience

Bouchard focuses on classroom curriculum oversight through a federal Parents' Bill of Rights, while Hines prioritizes increased funding for schools, technical training, and regulating addictive social media.

Democratic Christina Hines

Increases education funding and pathways

Hines emphasizes strengthening K-12 education through increased funding for classrooms, teachers, and students. She also supports career and technical training pathways and proposes holding social media companies accountable for affecting youth mental health.

  • Supports increasing resources for K-12 classrooms, teachers, and students
  • Advocates expanding career and technical education pathways
  • Proposes regulating big tech platforms that exploit youth mental health

“Ensuring our kids are set up for the future starts with improving education and making sure teachers and students have the resources they need to succeed in and out of the classroom.”

“I will fight back against big tech companies and harmful social media platforms that profit off intentionally addicting our children and exploiting their mental health.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Supports Parents' Bill of Rights

Bouchard advocates returning public education to basic subjects like reading, writing, math, and science. He supports a federal Parents' Bill of Rights to give parents direct oversight over classroom curricula.

  • Advocates refocusing school curricula on core subjects: reading, writing, math, and science
  • Supports a federal Parents' Bill of Rights to give parents curriculum oversight
  • Supports expanding trade school, college, and business pathways for students

“In Congress, I’ll back a Parents’ Bill of Rights, so moms and dads always have a say in what their kids are being taught. Parents should be partners in education, not kept in the dark.”

05

Housing

medium salience

Bouchard focuses on supply-side solutions like faster permitting and workforce training to construct more homes, whereas Hines emphasizes direct cost-of-living relief on mortgages and housing expenses.

Democratic Christina Hines

Lowers housing and mortgage costs

Hines identifies high housing and mortgage costs as major financial burdens for working families and pledges to work in Congress to reduce housing expenses.

  • Includes lowering housing and mortgage expenses as part of her cost-of-living priority

“I’m reminded of it every time the daycare and mortgage bills hit our account, we fill a prescription, pay the utility bill, or take a trip to the grocery store.”

Republican Michael Bouchard

Cuts permitting and builds homes

Bouchard, endorsed by Michigan Realtors, advocates increasing housing availability to improve affordability. His plan includes building more homes, streamlining federal permitting, and strengthening the skilled-trades workforce.

  • Supports building more homes by cutting federal permitting barriers
  • Advocates expanding the skilled-trades workforce to increase construction

“The cost of housing is putting the American Dream out of reach for too many Michigan families. We need to build more homes, speed up permitting, cut unnecessary federal barriers, and rebuild our skilled-trades workforce.”

06

Government Ethics and Campaign Reform

medium salience

Democratic Christina Hines

Bans congressional stock trading

Hines makes ethics reform a central focus of her campaign, pledging not to take corporate PAC money and advocating for a ban on members of Congress trading individual stocks. She also calls for an independent Department of Justice.

  • Refuses corporate PAC contributions
  • Supports banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks
  • Advocates rebuilding an independent Department of Justice free from political influence

“That’s why restoring trust in government starts with accountability. I do not take corporate PAC money, and I support a ban on members of Congress trading individual stocks, because no one should be able to profit personally from inside information while working families struggle to get by.”

Republican Michael Bouchard No documented position in our sources
07

Environment and Great Lakes

low salience

Democratic Christina Hines

Protects Great Lakes and water

Hines opposes rollbacks of environmental regulations, pledging to safeguard Lake St. Clair and the Great Lakes from environmental harm.

  • Opposes rollbacks of environmental protections for Lake St. Clair and the Great Lakes

“Cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and education, the haphazard firing of federal workers, and the rollback of environmental protections that safeguard Lake St. Clair and our Great Lakes all have real consequences.”

Republican Michael Bouchard No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

MI-10 House Election Winner

76.0% Democrats
23.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 76.0REPUBLICANS 23.5

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 House winner?

76.0% Christina Hines
24.0% Michael Bouchard Jr.
255075100AUG 1AUG 26SEP 18OCT 11OCT 31HINES 76.0PARTY 70.0PARTY 36.0JR. 24.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 Republican nominee?

99.0% Michael Bouchard
2.0% Steffan Demetropoulos
1.0% Robert Lulgjuraj

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 19SEP 6SEP 24OCT 11BOUCHARD 99.0DEMETROPOULOS 2.0KIRK 1.0LULGJURAJ 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-10 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Christina Hines
1.0% Tim Greimel
1.0% Eric Chung
255075100AUG 1AUG 19SEP 6SEP 24OCT 11HINES 99.0GREIMEL 1.0CHUNG 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.