Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Safe R

Michigan — 9th District

The 2026 general election for Michigan's 9th Congressional District features incumbent Republican Lisa McClain facing Democratic challenger Ray Pooley. McClain, who serves as the House Majority Conference Chair, is running on a conservative platform emphasizing tax cuts, domestic energy expansion, strict border enforcement, and small-town values. Pooley, a CNC machinist and progressive challenger, centers his campaign on working-class economic policies, Medicare for All, support for small family farms, and sweeping government ethics reform. Major nonpartisan race rating outlets, including Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and DDHQ, rate Michigan's 9th District as Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
94.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Lisa McClain
96.8%
Ray Pooley
2.6%

All markets →

01

Economy and Labor

high salience

Pooley advocates raising taxes on corporations and high earners to fund working-class relief and mandatory profit sharing, whereas McClain signed a tax-pledge commitment and voted for federal spending caps and tax relief.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports union labor and manufacturing

Pooley advocates bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. by supporting trade schools, protecting union organizing rights, and mandating employee profit sharing. He supports raising the minimum wage, capping CEO-to-worker pay ratios, and simplifying the tax code to tax corporations and the ultra-wealthy while cutting taxes for working families.

  • Pass legislation to incentivize domestic manufacturing and trade schools
  • Raise the minimum wage and institute a maximum CEO-to-worker pay ratio
  • Mandate profit-sharing for profitable corporations
  • Simplify the tax code, close corporate loopholes, and cut taxes for working families

“If we want to bring manufacturing back, elect a manufacturer.”

“The working class has carried this nation on our backs for decades; it's time we reward hard work again by paying dignity wages and lowering taxes on working families.”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports tax cuts and spending limits

McClain advocates for fiscal conservatism, tax relief, and federal spending reductions to promote business growth. She signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and voted for major budget reconciliation legislation including H.R. 1 (2025) and the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge with Americans for Tax Reform
  • Voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) in 2025 to address tax policy and debt limits
  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 to cap federal spending and raise the debt limit
  • Endorsed by the Michigan Chamber of Commerce PAC and Detroit Regional Chamber PAC

“FIGHTER FOR SMALL TOWN VALUES”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Pooley supports a universal single-payer Medicare for All system with federal IVF and childcare guarantees, while McClain favors market-based healthcare and holds anti-abortion group endorsements.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports Medicare for All and IVF

Citing personal experience with cystic fibrosis and family health struggles, Pooley treats healthcare as a human right and supports a universal Medicare for All system. He also advocates for guaranteed federal access to IVF, universal childcare services, and paid parental leave for newborns.

  • Enact Medicare for All to guarantee healthcare coverage and eliminate out-of-pocket medical bankruptcy
  • Protect and expand access to IVF treatment
  • Establish universal childcare services and guarantee one month of paid parental leave for newborns

“Healthcare isn't just policy, it's a human right, and Medicare For All is both the fiscally responsible thing to do and will ensure everyone is covered.”

Republican Lisa McClain

Opposes government-run healthcare programs

McClain favors market-driven healthcare policies and chaired the House Oversight Subcommittee on Health Care and Financial Services during the 118th Congress. She maintains strong anti-abortion endorsements and consistently votes against expanding federal healthcare mandates.

  • Served as Chairman of the House Oversight Subcommittee on Health Care and Financial Services in the 118th Congress
  • Endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan PAC and Citizens for Traditional Values PAC
  • Voted to end the national COVID-19 emergency and terminate CDC vaccination proof requirements for foreign travelers
03

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

McClain advocates for strict law enforcement policies including mandatory noncitizen detention and DUI deportations, whereas Pooley opposes ICE raids and focuses on creating swift pathways to citizenship.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports border security with citizenship pathways

Pooley favors securing the border alongside a swift and clear legal pathway to citizenship for immigrants who follow rules. He explicitly opposes ICE raids in local communities and shortcut paths based strictly on status or wealth.

  • Establish a clear, swift legal pathway to citizenship for immigrants
  • End un-American ICE raids and focus immigration policy on root causes of migration
  • Enforce smart border security without granting shortcuts based on money or status

“Our nations strength comes from its immigrants, but a broken system helps no one.”

“End un-American ICE raids and enforce smart border policy, targeting root cause”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports strict enforcement and border restrictions

McClain strongly supports strict immigration laws, mandatory detention, and expanded deportation authority. She voted for the Laken Riley Act, the Secure the Border Act of 2023, and voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring mandatory detention of noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft
  • Voted for the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)
  • Voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas in 2024
  • Voted for H.R. 875 making DUI offenses grounds for noncitizen deportation
04

Energy and Agriculture

medium salience

Pooley prioritizes renewable energy expansion and anti-monopoly agricultural regulations, while McClain votes to expand fossil fuel production and repeal green energy tax credits.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports clean energy and small family farms

Pooley supports achieving energy independence through American-made solar and wind technologies while holding corporate polluters accountable. As a homesteader, he aims to protect small family farms by breaking up agribusiness monopolies, regulating AI data centers, and eliminating PFAS contamination.

  • Expand domestic solar and wind energy production to lower home utility bills
  • Break up seed and meat packer monopolies and combat PFAS in food and water
  • Heavily regulate AI data centers to prevent farmland conversion and resource drain
  • Protect farmers' freedom to install solar arrays on their properties

“Take care of the land, the water, the air, and they'll take care of you.”

“Today, farmers are getting squeezed by seed and meat packer monopolies, land consolidation, higher input costs, PFAS getting into our food and water supplies, and AI data centers moving in.”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports expanding domestic fossil fuel production

McClain supports increasing domestic energy production across oil, natural gas, and coal, and reducing environmental permitting delays. Endorsed by the Michigan Farm Bureau AgriPAC, she voted to repeal green energy tax credits under the Limit, Save, Grow Act.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1, 118th Congress) to expand domestic oil, gas, and coal development
  • Voted to repeal green energy tax credits in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023
  • Endorsed by the Michigan Farm Bureau AgriPAC
  • Voted for H.J.Res. 30 disapproving Department of Labor ESG investment rules
05

Government Reform and Elections

medium salience

Pooley seeks structural campaign finance reform, term limits, and ranked-choice voting, whereas McClain focuses on stricter voting regulations like mandatory proof of citizenship.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports campaign finance reform and term limits

Pooley champions systemic government reforms, including overturning Citizens United, implementing public campaign financing, and adopting ranked-choice voting. He advocates for term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court Justices, alongside a strict ban on stock trading by sitting officials.

  • Overturn Citizens United and establish a public campaign financing system
  • Implement ranked-choice voting to eliminate partisan gerrymandering
  • Enact term limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court Justices
  • Ban stock trading by sitting elected officials and restrict lobbying

“Our democracy should be owned by voters, not corporate donors.”

“We will end the revolving door of lobbyists, enact term limits for congress and SCOTUS to ensure fresh perspectives, and ban stock trading by sitting officials.”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports mandatory voter citizenship verification

McClain focuses her election reform efforts on strict voter eligibility requirements. She voted for the SAVE Act to mandate documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and publicly opposed Michigan's 2022 Proposal 2 constitutional amendment expanding voting access.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections
  • Opposed Michigan Proposal 2 (2022 Voting Policies in Constitution Amendment)
  • Voted for H.R. 1526 (NORRA) to restrict nationwide federal court injunctions
06

Gun Policy

medium salience

Pooley supports universal background checks and raising the firearm purchasing age, while McClain highlights her identity as a gun owner opposed to federal firearm restrictions.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports universal background checks and age limits

Pooley advocates for common-sense firearm restrictions, including universal background checks, raising the purchasing age for firearms, closing domestic violence purchasing loopholes, and expanding mental healthcare funding, while maintaining respect for Second Amendment rights.

  • Mandate universal background checks for all gun sales
  • Raise the minimum purchasing age for firearms
  • Close legal loopholes that permit domestic violence abusers to access firearms
  • Expand mental healthcare access and school security funding

“Responsible gun owners know that safe communities and 2A rights are NOT mutually exclusive.”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports Second Amendment rights

McClain prominently identifies as a gun owner and opposes new federal restrictions on firearm ownership, framing Second Amendment defense as a core component of her platform.

  • Identifies publicly as a proud gun owner and defender of Second Amendment rights
  • Opposes federal gun control legislation and restrictions on firearm sales

“proud CHRISTIAN, MOTHER, gun owner, BUSINESSWOMAN, DOG MOM”

07

Foreign Policy and Defense

low salience

Pooley advocates for military restraint and an end to the Gaza conflict, whereas McClain consistently votes to authorize federal national defense budgets as an Armed Services Committee member.

Democratic Ray Pooley

Supports diplomacy and ending Gaza conflict

Pooley advocates using military strength strictly for deterrence while relying primarily on diplomacy and human rights. He explicitly calls for an end to the conflict in Gaza and stopping the genocide in Palestine.

  • Prioritize diplomacy, economic partnerships, and human rights over military conflict
  • Call for an immediate end to the genocide in Palestine
  • Maintain military deterrence without engaging in endless foreign wars

“A strong America doesn't seek endless war; it uses its power to create a more peaceful world, ensuring our security, and holding our leaders to a moral standard.”

“Our allies are our responsibility; stop the genocide in Palestine”

Republican Lisa McClain

Supports national defense funding

McClain served on the House Armed Services Committee and regularly votes in favor of national defense spending bills. She also supported the Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023.

  • Served on the House Armed Services Committee during the 117th and 118th Congresses
  • Voted for National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) for FY 2024 and FY 2025
  • Voted for the Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023 (H.R. 6090)

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-09 House Election Winner

94.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 94.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

MI-09 House winner?

96.8% Lisa McClain
2.6% Ray Pooley
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16MCCLAIN 96.8PARTY 96.4PARTY 6.5POOLEY 2.6

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.