Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Lean D

Michigan’s 8th District race

Portrait of Kristen McDonald Rivet

Democrat

Kristen McDonald Rivet

Portrait of Thomas J. Smith

Republican

Thomas J. Smith

The 2026 general election for Michigan's 8th Congressional District features freshman Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet facing Republican nominee Thomas J. Smith. The district is a critical House battleground that Donald Trump won 50%-48% in 2024, even as McDonald Rivet secured the congressional seat by six points. The race hinges on economic conditions, cost of living, immigration enforcement, and government ethics reform.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.5%
Republicans
4.3%
Kalshi ↗
Kristen McDonald Rivet
96.0%
Thomas J. Smith
4.6%
Kalshi ↗
Thomas J Smith
99.0%
Amir Hassan
2.0%
Al Lemmo
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

McDonald Rivet focuses on lowering costs for childcare, groceries, and housing through targeted legislation, whereas Smith pushes federal spending cuts, tax reductions, and deregulation under an America First model.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports targeted cost-lowering and workforce development

McDonald Rivet emphasizes lowering daily expenses for groceries, housing, prescription drugs, and childcare while expanding workforce training for high-wage jobs. She also targets corporate tax breaks for data centers and opposed major federal budget reconciliation and tax legislation.

  • Advocates workforce investments to prepare Michiganders for high-wage jobs
  • Targeted tax breaks for data centers
  • Voted NAY on H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act reconciliation legislation)

“to help level the playing field for working families. Kristen works with pragmatic leaders from both parties to lower the cost of groceries, housing and prescription drugs, and to invest in child care.”

“Michigan needs more high-wage jobs. Kristen will make sure we invest in our workforce to prepare Michiganders for the jobs of tomorrow because while college isn’t for everyone, good-paying jobs should be.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Advocates tax cuts, deregulation, and spending cuts

Smith aligns with Donald Trump's 'America First' economic program to reduce inflation by curbing federal government spending and eliminating burdensome regulations. He advocates lowering taxes to ensure families retain more of their earnings.

  • Campaigns on President Trump's America First agenda
  • Calls for cutting wasteful federal spending
  • Pledges to reduce regulations and lower taxes

“advance President Trump's America First agenda to lower costs for working families and make America affordable again.”

“Cutting wasteful spending, reducing regulations, and lowering taxes so families keep more of what they earn.”

02

Immigration and border security

high salience

Smith supports finishing the border wall and restoring mass deportations, while McDonald Rivet voted for targeted detention measures for undocumented immigrants arrested for crimes while opposing voter proof-of-citizenship mandates.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports targeted enforcement and criminal detention rules

McDonald Rivet supported legislation expanding federal detention requirements for undocumented immigrants arrested for theft, burglary, or DUIs, while allowing states to sue the federal government over enforcement failures. However, she voted against mandatory proof-of-citizenship requirements for federal voter registration.

  • Voted YEA on S.5 (Laken Riley Act) to detain undocumented immigrants arrested for theft or burglary
  • Voted YEA on H.R.875 making DUIs grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
  • Voted NAY on H.R.22 (SAVE Act) regarding voter registration proof of citizenship

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Supports border wall completion and restoring deportations

Smith views illegal immigration as a national security crisis. He advocates completing the southern border wall, ending catch-and-release, and fully restoring deportation enforcement.

  • Complete the southern border wall
  • Restore federal deportation enforcement
  • End catch-and-release policies

“Finishing the wall, restoring deportations, and ending catch-and-release to stop the national security crisis.”

03

Government ethics and reform

medium salience

McDonald Rivet targets congressional self-enrichment by proposing stock trading bans, whereas Smith focuses on enacting term limits to replace career politicians.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports stock trading bans for members of Congress

McDonald Rivet introduced legislation banning members of Congress from trading stocks or participating in prediction markets, arguing elected officials should not enrich themselves while in office. She also voted to mandate the disclosure of unclassified investigative files related to Jeffrey Epstein.

  • Introduced legislation banning congressional stock trading and prediction market trading
  • Voted YEA on H.R.4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act)

“No one in government should be using their position to enrich themselves while working people struggle, regardless of Party.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Supports congressional term limits and transparency

Smith advocates structural government reforms, promising to push for congressional term limits, greater federal transparency, and heightened accountability for career politicians.

  • Pushes for congressional term limits
  • Advocates government transparency
  • Demands accountability for career politicians

“will push for term limits, government transparency, and accountability for career politicians.”

04

Constitutional rights and gun policy

medium salience

Smith opposes federal regulation of firearm rights as overreach, while McDonald Rivet advocates gun safety laws to restrict access for dangerous individuals.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports firearm restrictions for dangerous individuals

McDonald Rivet supports gun safety regulations designed to keep firearms out of the hands of dangerous individuals while protecting public safety.

  • Pledges to keep guns out of dangerous hands
  • Supports public safety initiatives

“keeping guns out of dangerous hands.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Opposes federal gun control and defends 2nd Amendment

Smith promises to stand against federal overreach and protect First and Second Amendment constitutional rights for all citizens.

  • Defends 1st and 2nd Amendment rights
  • Opposes federal overreach on gun control

“Protecting the 1st and 2nd Amendment rights of every American against federal overreach.”

05

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

McDonald Rivet actively campaigns on defending abortion access, whereas Smith has no documented position on abortion in the provided sources.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports legal abortion access and reproductive rights

McDonald Rivet places the protection of legal abortion access at the core of her platform, securing endorsements from major reproductive rights advocacy organizations.

  • Pledges to defend abortion access
  • Endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILY's List

“defending the right to abortion”

Republican Thomas J. Smith No documented position in our sources
06

Healthcare affordability

medium salience

McDonald Rivet focuses on federal policy to lower prescription drug and care costs, while Smith's platform contains no detailed healthcare commitments in the provided sources.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports federal intervention to lower healthcare costs

McDonald Rivet prioritizes healthcare affordability, backing federal efforts to lower prescription drug costs and ensure accessible care for working families.

  • Works to lower prescription drug costs
  • Prioritizes healthcare affordability for working families

“lower the cost of groceries, housing and prescription drugs”

Republican Thomas J. Smith No documented position in our sources
07

Transgender sports policy

low salience

McDonald Rivet voted against federal legislation prohibiting transgender women from competing in women's sports programs, while Smith's platform contains no documented stance on the issue in the provided sources.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Opposes federal ban on transgender athletes in female sports

McDonald Rivet voted against federal legislation that aimed to bar biological males from participating in athletic programs designated for women or girls.

  • Voted NAY on H.R.28 (Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025)
Republican Thomas J. Smith No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

MI-08 House Election Winner

95.5% Democrats
4.3% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 95.5REPUBLICANS 4.3

Kalshi ↗

MI-08 House winner?

96.0% Kristen McDonald Rivet
4.6% Thomas J. Smith
255075100AUG 2AUG 26SEP 18OCT 11OCT 31RIVET 96.0PARTY 93.7PARTY 9.8SMITH 4.6

Kalshi ↗

MI-08 Republican nominee?

99.0% Thomas J Smith
2.0% Amir Hassan
1.0% Al Lemmo
255075100AUG 2AUG 20SEP 7SEP 25OCT 11SMITH 99.0HASSAN 2.0LEMMO 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.