Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Lean D

Michigan — 8th District

Portrait of Kristen McDonald Rivet

Democrat

Kristen McDonald Rivet

Portrait of Thomas J. Smith

Republican

Thomas J. Smith

Democratic incumbent Kristen McDonald Rivet faces Republican challenger Thomas J. Smith in Michigan's 8th Congressional District for the 2026 general election. MI-08 is a highly competitive battleground district that Donald Trump won in 2024 (50% to 48%) while McDonald Rivet won the House seat (51% to 45%). Smith, a retired engineer, won the Republican primary after defeating a candidate endorsed by Donald Trump. The race is rated Lean Democratic by Cook Political Report and Likely Democratic by Decision Desk, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
91.5%
Republicans
8.2%
Kalshi ↗
Kristen McDonald Rivet
93.0%
Thomas J. Smith
9.0%
Kalshi ↗
Thomas J Smith
99.0%
Amir Hassan
2.0%
Al Lemmo
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

McDonald Rivet seeks to lower living expenses through workforce investments and targeted cost-reduction measures, whereas Smith proposes cutting taxes, government spending, and federal regulations.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Lowering costs and investing in workforce

McDonald Rivet focuses on lowering everyday expenses such as groceries, housing, prescription drugs, and child care. She advocates for workforce training programs to ensure access to high-wage jobs without requiring a college degree.

  • Proposes workforce investments to prepare Michiganders for good-paying jobs.
  • Focuses on reducing costs for groceries, housing, child care, and prescription medication.
  • Voted against the H.R. 1 reconciliation bill and federal budget resolutions.

“to help level the playing field for working families. Kristen works with pragmatic leaders from both parties to lower the cost of groceries, housing and prescription drugs, and to invest in child care.”

“Michigan needs more high-wage jobs. Kristen will make sure we invest in our workforce to prepare Michiganders for the jobs of tomorrow because while college isn’t for everyone, good-paying jobs should be.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Cutting taxes and federal spending

Smith campaigns on reducing the cost of living by advancing President Trump's America First agenda. His economic approach centers on cutting wasteful government spending, reducing regulations, and lowering taxes for working families.

  • Pledges to advance President Trump's America First agenda to make America affordable.
  • Advocates cutting wasteful government spending and deregulating.
  • Proposes lowering taxes so working families retain more earnings.

“advance President Trump's America First agenda to lower costs for working families and make America affordable again.”

“Cutting wasteful spending, reducing regulations, and lowering taxes so families keep more of what they earn.”

02

Government reform and ethics

high salience

McDonald Rivet targets financial ethics through prohibitions on congressional stock and prediction market trading, while Smith targets political tenure through term limits and increased government transparency.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Banning congressional stock and prediction trading

McDonald Rivet advocates reforming federal governance by banning members of Congress from trading stocks and prediction market contracts. She introduced legislation aimed at preventing politicians from using official positions for personal financial gain.

  • Introduced legislation to prohibit Congressional stock and prediction market trading.
  • Campaigns on reforming the system to prevent politicians from self-enrichment.
  • Voted YEA on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).

“No one in government should be using their position to enrich themselves while working people struggle, regardless of Party.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Enacting term limits and transparency

Smith advocates government reform through strict accountability measures for career politicians. He campaigns on enacting congressional term limits and expanding federal government transparency.

  • Pushes for term limits on members of Congress.
  • Advocates for increased government transparency and accountability.
  • Positions himself as a conservative outsider reforming Washington.

“will push for term limits, government transparency, and accountability for career politicians.”

03

Border security and immigration

medium salience

McDonald Rivet supports targeted statutory detention and deportation policies for noncitizens arrested for specific criminal offenses, whereas Smith calls for completing the border wall, restoring deportations, and eliminating catch-and-release.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Supports selective enforcement and detention

McDonald Rivet has voted in favor of targeted law enforcement and detention measures for noncitizens arrested for specific crimes. However, she voted against broader voter registration citizenship documentation mandates like the SAVE Act.

  • Voted YEA on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring DHS detention for noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted YEA on H.R. 875 making DUI offenses grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.
  • Voted NAY on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Building wall and restoring deportations

Smith supports hardline border security and immigration policies to address national security concerns. He advocates finishing the southern border wall, ending catch-and-release, and expanding deportations.

  • Calls for finishing construction of the southern border wall.
  • Advocates restoring deportation procedures.
  • Demands an immediate end to catch-and-release policies.

“Finishing the wall, restoring deportations, and ending catch-and-release to stop the national security crisis.”

04

Constitutional rights and gun policy

medium salience

McDonald Rivet supports gun safety regulations to keep firearms out of dangerous hands, while Smith opposes federal overreach and defends Second Amendment rights.

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Protecting gun safety laws

McDonald Rivet supports gun safety measures aimed at preventing firearm violence. She emphasizes restricting access to firearms for individuals deemed dangerous.

  • Supports keeping firearms out of dangerous hands.
  • Advocates for sensible gun safety laws.

“keeping guns out of dangerous hands.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith

Defending First and Second Amendment rights

Smith campaigns on protecting constitutional rights against federal intervention. He pledges to defend First and Second Amendment liberties from federal overreach.

  • Pledges to protect 1st and 2nd Amendment rights.
  • Opposes federal overreach on constitutional freedoms.

“Protect the 1st and 2nd Amendment rights of every American. Tom will stand firm against federal overreach and defend the liberties that make America great.”

05

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Defending abortion access

McDonald Rivet advocates for defending reproductive freedom and legal access to abortion. She is endorsed by Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILY's List.

  • Supports defending the right to abortion.
  • Endorsed by major reproductive rights organizations like Planned Parenthood Action Fund and EMILY's List.

“defending the right to abortion”

Republican Thomas J. Smith No documented position in our sources
06

Healthcare

low salience

Democratic Kristen McDonald Rivet

Lowering healthcare and prescription costs

McDonald Rivet focuses on making healthcare and prescription drugs affordable for working families. She highlights affordable healthcare as a key priority of her campaign platform.

  • Identifies affordable healthcare as a core campaign priority.
  • Works to reduce prescription drug prices.

“Groceries and prescriptions are unaffordable, gas is through the roof, and home ownership feels out of reach for the majority of Michiganders.”

Republican Thomas J. Smith No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-08 House Election Winner

91.5% Democrats
8.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 91.5REPUBLICANS 8.2

Kalshi ↗

MI-08 House winner?

93.0% Kristen McDonald Rivet
9.0% Thomas J. Smith
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PARTY 93.7RIVET 93.0PARTY 9.8SMITH 9.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-08 Republican nominee?

99.0% Thomas J Smith
2.0% Amir Hassan
1.0% Al Lemmo
255075100AUG 2AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16SMITH 99.0HASSAN 2.0LEMMO 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.