Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Toss-up

Michigan — 7th District

Portrait of William Lawrence

Democrat

William Lawrence

In Michigan's 7th Congressional District, freshman incumbent Republican Representative Tom Barrett faces Democratic nominee William Lawrence in a highly competitive general election. The race hinges on sharp contrasts between Barrett's conservative platform focused on spending cuts, border security, energy production, and support for law enforcement, and Lawrence's progressive platform centered on housing affordability, Medicare for All, climate action, and labor rights. Major election forecasters classify the race as a Toss-up (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), while Decision Desk rates it Lean Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
51.5%
Republicans
47.0%
Kalshi ↗
William Lawrence
52.0%
Tom Barrett
48.0%
Kalshi ↗
William Lawrence
99.0%
Matt Maasdam
1.0%
Bridget Brink
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Lawrence proposes taxing billionaires and lifting the payroll tax cap to expand public programs, whereas Barrett focuses on reining in inflation by cutting spending, lowering taxes, and opposing corporate welfare.

Democratic William Lawrence

Tax billionaires and lower living costs

Lawrence advocates for lowering the cost of living by taxing billionaires and corporations to fund social programs like Social Security, healthcare, and housing. He supports a billionaire minimum wealth tax, protecting Social Security by lifting the payroll tax cap, and ensuring small businesses do not pay higher tax rates than multinational corporations.

  • Supports a billionaire minimum wealth tax.
  • Proposes lifting the payroll tax cap to protect Social Security.
  • Advocates ensuring small businesses do not pay higher tax rates than multinational corporations.

“Taxing the billionaires would pay for all of the basic goods that the people of this district deserve. I support a billionaire minimum tax, which is a minimum wealth tax rate that the mega-wealthy must pay.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Cut spending and lower taxes

Barrett emphasizes reining in inflation by cutting federal spending, lowering taxes, and opposing corporate welfare subsidies. He signed the Taxpayer's Protection Pledge and voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) to address tax policy, statutory debt limits, and federal funding.

  • Signed the Taxpayer's Protection Pledge promising to oppose tax hikes.
  • Voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) providing for spending reconciliation, debt limit increases, and tax policy adjustments.
  • Opposes government subsidies and corporate welfare for large corporations.

“It’s time to rein in inflation once and for all. That means cutting government spending, lowering taxes, and putting America First in our trade policies.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Lawrence advocates for a universal Medicare for All system and defending Medicaid, whereas Barrett supports federal budget reconciliation measures that limit government healthcare spending.

Democratic William Lawrence

Supports Medicare for All and Medicaid

Lawrence supports Medicare for All to remove profit motives from health insurance and guarantee quality care for everyone at a lower cost. He opposes cuts to health programs, criticizing Barrett for voting to remove Michiganders from Medicaid, and advocates for protecting Community Mental Health and VA healthcare services.

  • Supports Medicare for All single-payer healthcare system.
  • Protects Medicaid coverage and criticizes cuts to federal health assistance.
  • Supports expanding mental health services and defending Community Mental Health programs.

“I support Medicare for All, which would remove the profit motive from health insurance and allow us all to access quality care, for a lower price.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Opposes expanded federal healthcare programs

Barrett opposes expansive government healthcare spending and voted for federal budget reconciliation measures. Lawrence criticizes Barrett's record for supporting Medicaid cuts that affected hundreds of thousands of Michiganders.

  • Voted for federal spending reconciliation measures under H.R. 1.
03

Border security and immigration

high salience

Barrett supports completing the border wall, enforcing strict deportation laws, and backing ICE, while Lawrence calls for holding ICE accountable and establishing a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Democratic William Lawrence

Path to citizenship and ICE accountability

Lawrence advocates creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants to level wages for all workers. He sharply criticizes ICE enforcement actions in American cities, calling to end what he terms the ICE occupation and hold the agency accountable for unconstitutional conduct.

  • Supports a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
  • Calls for holding ICE accountable for unconstitutional conduct and stopping neighborhood raids.

“I support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, in order to level the playing field for all workers in the United States, and raise wages for everybody.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Secure border and strict enforcement

Barrett views the southern border as out of control and supports finishing the border wall along with fully funding agencies like Border Patrol, ICE, and DHS. He voted for the Laken Riley Act, the SAVE Act, and the DUI deportation bill (H.R. 875) to enforce immigration laws and remove individuals present without legal permission who commit crimes.

  • Supports finishing the border wall and providing full resources to Border Patrol, ICE, and DHS.
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of illegal immigrants arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Voted for H.R. 875 making DUI convictions grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.

“Our Southern Border is out-of-control and has been for too long. The last few years have seen record numbers of people entering the country illegally, some on the terrorist watch list, and the flow of fentanyl into our communities is now the #1 killer of Americans age 18-45.”

04

Abortion and reproductive rights

high salience

Lawrence supports codifying abortion rights into federal law, whereas Barrett maintains a pro-life record opposing federal abortion protections and taxpayer funding.

Democratic William Lawrence

Codify federal abortion rights

Lawrence supports defending women's right to choose an abortion and codifying abortion rights into federal law. He frames reproductive health as a private family decision and criticizes political attempts to control healthcare choices.

  • Supports codifying federal abortion rights in law.
  • Opposes government restrictions on reproductive healthcare choices.

“I will defend women’s right to choose an abortion, and seek to codify this right in federal law.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Opposes abortion and supports restrictions

Barrett maintains a consistent pro-life record from his time in the Michigan State Legislature and receives endorsement from the Right to Life of Michigan PAC. His campaign criticizes opponents who support unrestricted abortion access and tax-funded abortions.

  • Maintains a pro-life voting record and is endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan PAC.
  • Opposes taxpayer-funded abortions and late-term abortions.

“While Senator Barrett has been a consistent pro-life state legislator, Elissa Slotkin supports some of the most extreme abortion policies of anyone in Congress.”

05

Foreign policy and defense

medium salience

Lawrence calls for stopping arms sales to Israel and reallocating military funds to domestic needs, while Barrett advocates for a strong national defense and prioritizing American military strength.

Democratic William Lawrence

Reduce military spending and aid Ukraine

Lawrence opposes endless war and advocates cutting military defense spending to reinvest in domestic needs, specifically calling to stop arms sales to Israel and end aggressive actions against Iran. On Ukraine, he supports continued military and humanitarian aid alongside active multilateral diplomatic negotiations to end the war.

  • Calls to halt arms sales to Israel and end the war on Iran.
  • Supports military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine alongside multilateral negotiations.
  • Advocates redirecting military defense dollars toward domestic social programs.

“The United States must work for peace around the globe, rather than pursuing escalation. Most urgently, we must stop arming Israel, which is pursuing a genocide of Palestinians in Gaza with U.S. weapons and tax dollars.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Strong national defense and American interests

Barrett emphasizes strong national security and putting American lives and interests first in foreign policy, drawing on his 22 years of military service in the U.S. Army. He strongly criticizes the Biden administration's withdrawal from Afghanistan.

  • Focuses on putting American interests and protection of military lives at the center of foreign policy.
  • Criticizes military withdrawal strategies that abandon allies.

“America’s standing in the world has never been so tenuous. Feckless leadership in the White House, questionable military leadership, and increased global threats have all made us more vulnerable than ever.”

06

Energy and climate

medium salience

Lawrence advocates for clean energy investments, polluter accountability, and a moratorium on data centers, while Barrett supports expanding domestic oil drilling and opening pipelines.

Democratic William Lawrence

Clean energy transition and water protection

Lawrence, a co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, prioritizes fighting climate change, protecting Michigan's Great Lakes, and holding utility companies and corporate polluters accountable. He supports a 12-month federal moratorium on new data centers and investments in renewable energy to lower electric bills.

  • Co-founder of the Sunrise Movement advocating for clean energy jobs.
  • Proposes a 12-month federal moratorium on new data centers.
  • Supports wetland and river restoration to protect Michigan water quality.

“I will fight for investment to secure the climate we depend on, adapt to the changes we can’t prevent, and finally drive our electric bills down.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Expand domestic energy production

Barrett advocates making America energy independent by expanding domestic energy production, opening pipelines, and increasing drilling. He argues that boosting domestic oil and gas will lower fuel prices for working families.

  • Supports expanding domestic oil and gas drilling and opening pipelines.
  • Promotes domestic energy independence to lower gas and home heating prices.

“Gas prices are at record highs and Americans are feeling the pain at the pump. I will work to expand America's energy production, open pipelines, increase drilling, and end our reliance on foreign oil.”

07

Education

medium salience

Lawrence seeks to expand public education funding and protect public universities, whereas Barrett focuses on promoting parental rights and restricting progressive curricula in schools.

Democratic William Lawrence

Invest in public education and universities

Lawrence advocates strong support and funding for public K-12 education, community colleges, trade schools, and public universities like Michigan State University. He opposes efforts by billionaires and politicians to undermine public school systems and higher education funding.

  • Defends political independence and long-term funding for Michigan State University.
  • Supports investments in trade schools, community colleges, and K-12 public education.

“We need to defend the political independence and long-term funding of Michigan State and other public universities across the country. Public universities actually make America great.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Parental rights and oppose woke curriculum

Barrett emphasizes parental rights in public education, opposing union influence, Critical Race Theory (CRT), and gender curriculum in schools. He voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R. 28) to restrict male-born athletes from female sports divisions.

  • Supports empowering parents over school district bureaucracies and teachers' unions.
  • Opposes CRT instruction, gender-identity policies, and school mask/at-home learning mandates.
  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R. 28).

“Our schools should spend less time on progressive and woke indoctrination, and more time focused on educating our children and keeping them safe.”

08

Government integrity, AI, and democracy

medium salience

Lawrence advocates banning congressional stock trading and regulating AI, while Barrett voted for strict citizenship proof requirements for federal voting and court injunction limitations.

Democratic William Lawrence

Regulate Big Tech, ban stock trading, transparent government

Lawrence proposes regulating AI and corporate/government surveillance to protect privacy, job markets, and mental health. To restore rule of law, he advocates banning stock trading by members of Congress and executive branch officials, prosecuting high-level tax evasion and human trafficking, and protecting democracy.

  • Proposes banning stock trading by members of Congress and executive branch officials.
  • Calls for regulation of AI and 24/7 corporate/government surveillance.

“Ban stock trading by members of Congress & the executive branch”

Republican Tom Barrett

Voter ID proof and federal transparency

Barrett voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration, voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) to release DOJ records on Jeffrey Epstein, and voted for NORRA (H.R. 1526) to limit nationwide district court injunctions.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship to vote in federal elections.
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).
  • Voted for NORRA of 2025 (H.R. 1526) limiting federal district court nationwide injunction authority.
09

Veterans affairs

low salience

Lawrence focuses on defending VA staffing against federal layoffs, while Barrett emphasizes his 22-year Army career and leadership on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee.

Democratic William Lawrence

Protect VA funding and staffing

Lawrence opposes proposed staffing layoffs at the VA and works to preserve quality healthcare and housing benefits for military veterans.

  • Opposes laying off VA staff and defends veteran healthcare and housing benefits.

“Trump and Musk want to lay off 80,000 V.A. workers, which would seriously diminish the quality of service and veterans’ ability to access benefits.”

Republican Tom Barrett

Advocate for veterans healthcare and reform

Barrett, an Army veteran of 22 years, serves on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee and chairs the Technology Modernization Subcommittee. He championed veteran advocacy during his eight years in the Michigan state legislature.

  • Chairs the House Veterans' Affairs Technology Modernization Subcommittee.
  • Served 22 years in the U.S. Army, logging 1,000+ helicopter flight hours.

“I also care deeply about our military and our veterans. I spent 22 years in the Army, and I know what it is like to serve, and what it is like to come home.”

10

Housing and homelessness

high salience

Democratic William Lawrence

Expand federal housing investment and tenant rights

Lawrence calls for major federal investment in quality housing across all price points, highlighting mixed-income housing models and a federal tenant bill of rights to combat landlord price-gouging. He also advocates a 'Housing First' strategy along with rapid rehousing, transitional, and permanent supportive housing to end homelessness.

  • Supports major federal investments in quality, mixed-income housing.
  • Proposes a federal tenant bill of rights to prevent corporate landlord price-gouging.
  • Advocates a 'Housing First' model to address homelessness.

“We need major federal investment in quality housing, at all price points. I am particularly excited about the mixed-income housing model that has been pioneered in Montgomery County, MD, and is now being adopted around the country.”

Republican Tom Barrett No documented position in our sources
11

Public safety and crime

medium salience
Democratic William Lawrence No documented position in our sources

Republican Tom Barrett

Fund police and tough-on-crime laws

Barrett focuses on law enforcement funding, opposing defunding police efforts, and criticizing soft-on-crime prosecutors. He highlights receiving the 'Legislator of the Year' award from the Michigan Corrections Officers Organization and sponsoring state police budgets.

  • Opposes defunding police or prosecutors.
  • Sponsored historical funding levels for state police in Michigan.
  • Received 'Legislator of the Year' award from Michigan Corrections Officers Organization.

“Years of attacks on our law enforcement and under-funding of our police has led to the highest crime in decades. Soft-on-crime prosecutors are letting violent criminals back on the street and our communities are less safe.”

12

Labor and union rights

medium salience

Democratic William Lawrence

Pass PRO Act and strengthen unions

Lawrence strongly advocates for organized labor, supporting the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act to hold corporations accountable for labor violations. He highlights walking picket lines with GM and Starbucks workers and fighting against CEO retaliation against unionization efforts.

  • Supports the PRO Act to lower barriers to worker unionization.
  • Walked picket lines with striking GM and Starbucks workers in the district.

“I support the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which lowers barriers to unionization by holding corporations accountable for labor law violations.”

Republican Tom Barrett No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-07 House Election Winner

51.5% Democrats
47.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 51.5REPUBLICANS 47.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-07 House winner?

52.0% William Lawrence
48.0% Tom Barrett
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 59.0LAWRENCE 52.0PARTY 49.0BARRETT 48.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-07 Democratic nominee?

99.0% William Lawrence
1.0% Matt Maasdam
1.0% Bridget Brink
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16LAWRENCE 99.0MAASDAM 1.0BRINK 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.