Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Safe D

Michigan — 6th District

Portrait of Heather Smiley

Republican

Heather Smiley

In Michigan's 6th Congressional District, veteran Democratic incumbent Rep. Debbie Dingell faces Republican nominee Heather Smiley in a general election rated Solid or Safe Democratic across all major outlets, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. The race hinges on economic and manufacturing growth, healthcare reform, border security and immigration policies, and environmental protections for the Great Lakes region. Dingell highlights her extensive legislative record on organized labor, Medicare for All, and PFAS chemical cleanup, while Smiley campaigns on free-market deregulation, fiscal discipline, border closure, and educational reform.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.5%
Republicans
0.5%
Kalshi ↗
Debbie Dingell
98.0%
Heather Smiley
4.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Manufacturing

high salience

Dingell focuses on strengthening labor unions and targeted trade renegotiation, whereas Smiley advocates unleashing the free market, in-sourcing manufacturing, and cutting government regulation.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports union labor and domestic manufacturing

Dingell prioritizes bolstering domestic manufacturing and protecting Michigan auto jobs against unfair trade and corporate outsourcing. She co-chairs the Labor Caucus, advocates for union rights through the PRO Act, and supports renegotiating trade agreements like the USMCA.

  • Co-chairs the Labor Caucus and co-sponsored the PRO Act
  • Advocates renegotiating the USMCA and applying targeted tariffs to protect auto manufacturing
  • Fights against corporate outsourcing and poor trade deals

“Debbie Dingell is working to close unfair loopholes that reward companies for shipping jobs overseas, create manufacturing jobs and ensure the recovery helps everyone.”

Republican Heather Smiley

Promotes free-market deregulation and in-sourcing

Smiley emphasizes leveraging her 32-year career at Ford Motor Company to bring business efficiencies to government and restore economic strength. She supports unleashing the free market, in-sourcing manufacturing, protecting citizen jobs, and enforcing reciprocal trade.

  • Promises to unleash the free market and restrict unnecessary government meddling
  • Advocates in-sourcing manufacturing and protecting domestic food chains
  • Calls for reciprocal, bi-directional trade agreements

“I am a life-long problem solver who applies my real-world experience, common sense, and understanding of cause & effect nuances to work smarter, save money, and overcome issues.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Dingell supports single-payer Medicare for All and defending federal ACA and Medicaid funding, while Smiley focuses on pro-life restrictions and bringing drug manufacturing back to the U.S.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports Medicare for All and ACA protection

Dingell considers healthcare a fundamental right and serves as Co-Chair of the Medicare for All Caucus. She aggressively opposes Republican cuts to Medicaid and ACA tax credits, while advocating for lower prescription drug costs and pre-existing condition protections.

  • House lead for the Medicare for All Act and Co-Chair of the Medicare for All Caucus
  • Voted against Republican reconciliation legislation that cut Medicaid funding
  • Introduces legislation to lower prescription drug costs and expand home- and community-based care

“Debbie Dingell will never stop fighting to guarantee quality healthcare for all Americans and lowering the cost of prescription drugs.”

Republican Heather Smiley

Advocates pro-life policies and domestic pharmaceuticals

Smiley focuses her healthcare platform on protecting human life from conception to end-of-life care. She also champions in-sourcing drug production and halting the importation of illicit drugs.

  • Pledges to protect life in the womb, for special needs, and the elderly
  • Supports in-sourcing pharmaceutical drug production
  • Advocates stopping illegal drug importation and production
03

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Dingell advocates for comprehensive reform and ICE enforcement oversight, whereas Smiley demands closing the border and remediating illegal entry.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports comprehensive reform and ICE accountability

Dingell supports comprehensive immigration reform and family reunification while criticizing aggressive enforcement tactics that spread fear in local communities. She advocates strict oversight for ICE, including mandatory body cameras, judicial warrants, and prohibiting masks.

  • Co-sponsored the Keep Families Together Act and the Family Reunification Act
  • Demands ICE reforms including body cameras, no masks, and judicial warrants
  • Voted against making DUIs automatic grounds for deportation (H.R. 875)

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports border closure and strict enforcement

Smiley calls for immediate action to secure and close the nation's borders to stop illegal immigration. She advocates remediating illegal entrants, ending chain migration, and enforcing guest-worker provisions.

  • Calls for closing the border and remediating illegal entrants
  • Advocates ending chain migration while protecting existing guest-worker provisions
  • Demands restoring border security and addressing issues associated with illegal entry

“Restore border security, improve immigration policies & practices, and address the issues associated with those who have entered the country illegally”

04

Energy and Environment

high salience

Dingell supports federal regulation of PFAS chemicals and government-funded Great Lakes restoration, while Smiley emphasizes energy independence through free-market policies.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports Great Lakes protection and PFAS regulation

Dingell is a prominent environmental advocate in Congress, co-chairing the Great Lakes Task Force and the PFAS Task Force. She has secured GLRI funding, fought to designate PFAS as hazardous chemicals, and advocated for Gelman Sciences' Superfund listing.

  • Co-Chairs the Great Lakes Task Force and PFAS Task Force
  • Secured funding for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative and fought to designate PFAS as hazardous
  • Secured EPA Superfund listing for the Gelman Sciences contaminated site

“Debbie Dingell is helping clean our Great Lakes and is leading the fight against PFAS chemical contamination.”

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports energy independence and environmental conservation

Smiley supports restoring American energy independence by unleashing free-market solutions and upgrading infrastructure. She also supports protecting air, water, land, and wildlife habitats.

  • Advocates restoring energy independence and unleashing free-market energy development
  • Pledges to protect and restore air, water, land, and wildlife habitats
  • Supports upgrading and protecting national energy infrastructure
05

Voting and Elections

medium salience

Dingell voted against federal proof-of-citizenship voting requirements, whereas Smiley explicitly champions restricting voting solely to verified legal U.S. citizens.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Opposes voter proof-of-citizenship restrictions

Dingell emphasizes the importance of voting rights as a pillar of democracy. She voted against the SAVE Act (H.R. 22), which required documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.

  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voting
  • Consistently encourages broad voter registration and participation in elections

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports strict voter integrity and citizenship proof

Smiley prioritizes election integrity and ballot security as core constitutional rights. She advocates enforcing strict voter verification to guarantee that voting in federal elections is restricted solely to legal U.S. citizens.

  • Demands ballot security and enforcing voter integrity laws
  • Supports restricting voting strictly to legal U.S. citizens
06

Government Spending and Budget

medium salience

Dingell opposes budget cuts that trim Medicaid and social programs, while Smiley advocates balancing the budget, eliminating federal departments, and instituting term limits.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Opposes safety-net budget cuts

Dingell opposes Republican spending bills that reduce funding for health, education, and social safety net programs. She voted against major Republican budget and reconciliation legislation, criticizing cuts to Medicaid, Head Start, and student aid.

  • Voted Nay on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and H.Con.Res. 14 budget resolutions
  • Voted Nay on fiscal year 2025 and 2026 continuing appropriations bills
  • Opposes spending cuts that target Medicaid, Head Start, and higher education aid

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports fiscal discipline and term limits

Smiley advocates strict fiscal responsibility to eliminate wasteful spending, pay down national debt, and balance the federal budget. She champions structural government reforms, including term limits for elected officials and eliminating omnibus spending.

  • Calls for balancing the budget, paying off national debt, and eliminating wasteful spending/departments
  • Supports term limits for all elected officials and requiring blind-trust investments
  • Advocates eliminating omnibus spending bills in favor of individual review
07

Education

medium salience

Dingell supports raising federal spending for public education and teacher salaries, while Smiley advocates stripping non-academic focus from curricula and eliminating wasteful federal departments.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports federal investment in public education

Dingell advocates robust federal funding for public education from Pre-K through higher education. She co-sponsored the American Teacher Act to establish a minimum teacher salary of $60,000 and introduced campus safety legislation for students with disabilities.

  • Co-sponsored the American Teacher Act to set minimum teacher salaries at $60,000
  • Introduced the Safe Equitable Campus Resources and Education Act
  • Fights to protect Title IX and restore Head Start and federal student aid funding

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports academic focus and eliminating federal departments

Smiley advocates refocusing school curricula strictly on core academics, American excellence, and global competitiveness. She also supports eliminating wasteful federal education departments and ensuring school safety.

  • Pledges to restrict school curricula solely to academics, American excellence, and global competitiveness
  • Supports eliminating wasteful federal departments
  • Focuses on school safety and unbiased educational opportunities
08

Civil Rights and Equality

medium salience

Dingell champions federal LGBTQ+ anti-discrimination legislation and opposes trans sports bans, whereas Smiley prioritizes protecting religious practice from government overreach.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports LGBTQ+ non-discrimination legislation

Dingell is a member of the Congressional Equality Caucus and co-sponsors the Equality Act to prohibit discrimination based on sex, sexual orientation, and gender identity. She also voted against H.R. 28, which prohibited transgender females from competing in women's sports.

  • Co-sponsor of the Equality Act and the PRIDE Act of 2025
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 28 (Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act)
  • Supported renewal of the Violence Against Women Act with transgender protections

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports religious freedom and unbiased opportunities

Smiley supports enforcing unbiased opportunities in education, employment, and housing while protecting fundamental civil rights. She strongly emphasizes defending religious freedom against government overreach and judicial bias.

  • Advocates protecting the free practice of religion without fear or judicial bias
  • Supports unbiased opportunities in employment, education, and housing
  • Pledges to uphold constitutional rights as intended by the framers

“Pursue and enforce laws where violations occur, and uphold our God-given rights as the framers intended”

09

Gun Policy and Self Defense

low salience

Dingell prioritizes legislation to reduce gun violence, whereas Smiley champions protecting Second Amendment self-defense rights and liability protections for manufacturers.

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports gun violence reduction policies

Dingell identifies reducing gun violence as a core personal passion and policy priority in her legislative platform.

  • Lists reducing gun violence as a core legislative priority

Republican Heather Smiley

Supports Second Amendment self-defense rights

Smiley strongly defends the constitutional right to keep and bear arms for self-defense. She supports shielding firearm manufacturers from personal liability.

  • Protects the right to arm and defend oneself and others
  • Supports legal liability shields for firearms manufacturers
10

Veterans Affairs

low salience

Democratic Debbie Dingell

Supports VA accountability and veteran healthcare

Dingell actively oversees veteran services in her district, having requested a VA Inspector General investigation into the Detroit VA Medical Center. She introduced legislation to mandate peer-review neutrality in VA facilities and supports reducing veteran homelessness.

  • Initiated VA Inspector General investigation into Detroit VA Medical Center mismanagement
  • Introduced legislation ensuring neutrality in the VA peer review process
  • Advocates expanded mental healthcare and job training for returning veterans
Republican Heather Smiley No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-06 House Election Winner

95.5% Democrats
0.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.5REPUBLICANS 0.5

Kalshi ↗

MI-06 House winner?

98.0% Debbie Dingell
4.0% Heather Smiley
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16DINGELL 98.0PARTY 91.9PARTY 4.0SMILEY 4.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.