Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Safe R

Michigan — 2nd District

Portrait of John Moolenaar

Republican

John Moolenaar

The general election for Michigan's 2nd Congressional District features Democratic nominee Ben Ambrose, a Marine Corps veteran, challenging Republican incumbent John Moolenaar. Rated Safe/Solid Republican by major political forecasters (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, DDHQ/The Hill), the district covers 20 Western Michigan counties. The race hinges on competing approaches to lower consumer costs, domestic energy and agricultural priorities, foreign influence concerns regarding China, and healthcare access.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
98.0%
Democrats
0.8%
Kalshi ↗
John Moolenaar
97.0%
Benjamin Ambrose
4.1%
Kalshi ↗
Ben Ambrose
99.0%
Jamie Hill
1.0%
Clyde Welford
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Ambrose emphasizes holding corporations accountable for price gouging and promoting 'Buy American' policies, whereas Moolenaar focuses on cutting federal spending and delivering tax relief.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports corporate price-gouging accountability

Ambrose focuses on lowering costs for everyday essentials like groceries and gas by holding big corporations accountable for unfair price gouging. He advocates for 'Buy American' manufacturing policies, reduced red tape for small businesses, and clean energy job creation.

  • Hold corporations accountable for price gouging to lower grocery and gas prices.
  • Provide tax incentives and reduce red tape for small businesses.
  • Implement 'Buy American' policies to restore manufacturing jobs to Michigan.

“Bringing down the cost of essentials like groceries and gas by holding big corporations accountable for unfair price gouging”

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports cutting federal spending

Moolenaar advocates for reducing federal spending to curb inflation and make groceries and fuel more affordable. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and voted for federal budget reconciliation measures.

  • Voted for budget reconciliation bills including H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act).
  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform's Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
  • Supported cutting taxes on Social Security benefits for seniors.

“cut wasteful Washington spending, rebuild our military, grow our economy and defend the dignity and value of every human life.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Ambrose supports Medicare for All and strengthening the ACA, whereas Moolenaar opposes federal government involvement in healthcare and voted against the ACA.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports Medicare for All

Ambrose champions Medicare for All to guarantee quality healthcare while working to protect and expand the Affordable Care Act. He prioritizes lowering drug costs for seniors, protecting rural hospitals, and expanding mental health services.

  • Champion Medicare for All to guarantee healthcare for all Americans.
  • Protect and strengthen the Affordable Care Act while lowering prescription drug costs.
  • Expand mental health and addiction treatment services and support rural hospitals.

“Ben proudly supports Medicare for All and is committed to making affordable, accessible healthcare a reality for every American.”

Republican John Moolenaar

Opposes government-run healthcare

Moolenaar opposes federal government involvement in healthcare and voted repeatedly to repeal Obamacare. He pledges to preserve Social Security and Medicare while opposing federal healthcare mandates.

  • Maintains consistent opposition to the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare).
  • Opposes federal government involvement and intervention in healthcare decisions.
  • Supports protecting Social Security and Medicare programs.

“They have made it clear that they do not want the federal government involved in their health care in any way.”

03

Agriculture and Energy

medium salience

Ambrose advocates transitioning to clean energy and expanding regional crop caps, while Moolenaar supports expanding domestic oil and gas production and blocking foreign acquisitions of U.S. farmland.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports clean energy transition

Ambrose advocates transitioning to clean energy sources to make Michigan energy independent while protecting the Great Lakes. He supports raising federal caps on West Michigan agricultural products and promoting sustainable farming practices.

  • Increase Federal Caps on agricultural products grown in West Michigan.
  • Protect the Great Lakes from pollution and invasive species.
  • Transition to clean energy to create manufacturing jobs and reduce emissions.

“Transition to clean energy sources and reduce carbon emissions”

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports traditional energy and farmland protection

Moolenaar supports boosting domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production to achieve lower energy costs. He works to protect American agricultural land from purchase by foreign adversaries like the Chinese Communist Party.

  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic fossil fuel production.
  • Opposes Chinese-linked agricultural developments, including the Gotion project in Michigan.
  • Works to block foreign adversaries from buying U.S. farmland as Chair of the Select Committee on China.

“This includes preventing our adversaries from buying up American farmland and protecting our Michigan communities from foreign threats, including stopping the Chinese-linked Gotion project right here at home.”

04

Veterans' Affairs

medium salience

Both candidates prioritize VA reform, with Marine Corps veteran Ambrose highlighting comprehensive mental healthcare access and Moolenaar emphasizing administrative overhaul of the VA.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports comprehensive veteran healthcare

Drawing on 20 years of service in the Marine Corps, Ambrose focuses on streamlining the VA system. He pledges to expand comprehensive physical and mental health resources to help veterans transition to civilian life.

  • Improve VA systems to deliver health services efficiently.
  • Expand mental health care access for returning veterans.
  • Protect healthcare and retirement benefits for military families.

“Ben served our country alongside men and women who were injured, mentally and physically, he knows what Veterans need to assimilate back into civilian life”

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports reforming VA benefits

Moolenaar emphasizes upholding promises to veterans by addressing systemic failures within the Department of Veterans Affairs and securing necessary healthcare funding through appropriations.

  • Voted for Military Construction and Veterans Affairs continuing appropriations.
  • Advocates reform of the Department of Veterans Affairs to ensure benefit delivery.

“Sadly, the current situation of Veterans Administration is proof that the federal government is failing our veterans in the most basic way.”

05

Education

medium salience

Ambrose focuses on increasing federal funding for public schools and Pell Grants, whereas Moolenaar supports local educational control and federal restrictions on transgender participation in female sports.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports federal public school funding

Ambrose prioritizes increasing federal investments in public K-12 education, expanding Pell Grants, and reducing class sizes. He advocates for higher teacher pay and accessible vocational and apprenticeship programs.

  • Increase federal funding for public schools and reduce class sizes.
  • Expand Pell Grants and vocational apprenticeship programs.
  • Improve teacher compensation and professional development.

“Increase federal funding for public schools and reduce class sizes”

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports parental rights and athletic restrictions

Moolenaar supports local control of education and federal legislation restricting athletic participation based on biological sex.

  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
  • Supports local educational control and parental involvement.

“Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025”

06

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Ambrose supports protecting access to reproductive healthcare services, while Moolenaar opposes abortion and believes life begins at conception.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports reproductive healthcare access

Ambrose advocates protecting women's access to reproductive healthcare as a core pillar of his healthcare platform.

  • Ensure women have access to full reproductive healthcare services.

“Ensure women have access to reproductive healthcare”

Republican John Moolenaar

Opposes abortion; pro-life

Moolenaar maintains a strict pro-life stance, stating that human life begins at conception. He is endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan PAC.

  • Endorsed by the Right to Life of Michigan PAC.
  • Believes human life begins at conception and opposes abortion access.

“Life begins at conception. We must protect human life, the foundation of our civilization.”

07

Gun Rights

low salience

Ambrose is endorsed by Gun Sense Voter, whereas Moolenaar pledges to defend Second Amendment rights against new firearm restrictions.

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports gun safety legislation

Ambrose is endorsed by Gun Sense Voter and supports common-sense gun safety policies.

  • Endorsed by Gun Sense Voter.

“Gun Sense Voter”

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports Second Amendment rights

Moolenaar strongly defends Second Amendment rights and opposes restrictions on law-abiding gun owners.

  • Pledges to defend Second Amendment rights against new gun control measures.

“As your member of Congress, I will always defend the 2nd Amendment”

08

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience
Democratic Ben Ambrose No documented position in our sources

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports strict border enforcement

Moolenaar contends immigration reform must start with physical border security. He voted for strict enforcement legislation, including mandatory detention for unauthorized immigrants charged with theft and proof of citizenship for voting.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of unauthorized immigrants arrested for theft.
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
  • Voted for H.R. 875 to make driving while impaired grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.

“I strongly believe that immigration reform must begin with border security.”

09

Public Safety and Crime

medium salience

Democratic Ben Ambrose

Supports community policing and accountability

Ambrose supports community policing alongside police accountability measures and increased transparency. He champions investments in violence intervention, increased public servant pay, and treatment programs to combat the opioid crisis.

  • Support community policing and law enforcement transparency measures.
  • Invest in community violence prevention and intervention programs.
  • Increase pay for public safety personnel and expand opioid addiction treatment.

“Support community policing and police accountability measures”

Republican John Moolenaar No documented position in our sources
10

Foreign Policy and China

medium salience
Democratic Ben Ambrose No documented position in our sources

Republican John Moolenaar

Supports countering Chinese influence

As Chairman of the Select Committee on China, Moolenaar focuses on protecting U.S. national security and economic interests from the Chinese Communist Party, including stopping Chinese-linked local industrial projects.

  • Serves as Chairman of the Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the U.S. and the CCP.
  • Opposes Chinese-backed investments in Michigan like the Gotion battery plant project.
  • Pushes policies to stop CCP purchase of American farmland.

“It's been a privilege to Chair the Select Committee on China for the past two years working with our allies to hold the CCP accountable.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-02 House Election Winner

98.0% Republicans
0.8% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 98.0DEMOCRATS 0.8

Kalshi ↗

MI-02 House winner?

97.0% John Moolenaar
4.1% Benjamin Ambrose
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16MOOLENAAR 97.0PARTY 95.2AMBROSE 4.1PARTY 2.2

Kalshi ↗

MI-02 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Ben Ambrose
1.0% Jamie Hill
1.0% Clyde Welford
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16AMBROSE 99.0HILL 1.0WELFORD 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.