Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Michigan Likely R

Michigan — 1st District

The 2026 election for Michigan's 1st Congressional District features incumbent Republican Representative Jack Bergman, a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general seeking re-election, against Democratic nominee Callie Barr, an attorney, educator, and military caregiver. Michigan's 1st District encompasses Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, making rural healthcare, agricultural policy, economic affordability, Great Lakes conservation, and veterans' services the central issues of the campaign. Major political handicappers rate the race as Safe Republican or Solid Republican (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball), while DDHQ/The Hill rates it as Likely Republican. The general election will take place on November 3, 2026, following primary victories by both candidates on August 4, 2026.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
93.5%
Democrats
7.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jack Bergman
94.8%
Callie Barr
7.1%
Kalshi ↗
Jack Bergman
99.0%
Matthew DenOtter
1.0%
Justin Michal
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Callie Barr
99.0%
Kyle Blomquist
1.0%
Wayne Stiles
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Barr advocates tax increases on the wealthy, worker protections via the PRO Act, and housing subsidies, whereas Bergman champions tax simplification, deregulation, and a constitutional balanced budget amendment.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports lowering living costs and labor protections

Barr focuses on reducing kitchen-table expenses by tackling high housing, food, energy, and prescription drug costs. She advocates for tax fairness by making the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share, supporting labor unions through the PRO Act, and protecting Social Security.

  • Proposes making the ultrawealthy pay their fair share and removing the Social Security tax cap.
  • Supports labor unions and passage of the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
  • Calls for unlocking federal funding for local affordable homebuilding and practical zoning reform.
  • Advocates ending tariff battles that raise housing material and food prices.

“Rent is too high, wages have not kept up, and too many houses are being turned into investments instead of homes.”

“Working people are more productive than ever, but the gains keep flowing upward.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports tax cuts and fiscal discipline

Bergman prioritizes pro-growth economic policies centered on tax simplification, deregulation, and federal spending cuts. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and supports a balanced budget amendment to curb national debt.

  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax increases.
  • Supports a Balanced Budget Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
  • Voted for the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act reconciliation legislation.
  • Advocates streamlining federal regulations to stimulate private-sector job growth.

“Every Michigander knows that freedom leads to prosperity. We need streamlined regulations that help create jobs and economic growth.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Barr advocates for universal Medicare access, rural hospital funding, and drug price negotiations, while Bergman opposes government healthcare expansions and focuses on market-based policies and VA administrative reforms.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports universal healthcare and Medicare expansion

Barr views healthcare as a basic right and advocates for a universal system allowing individuals to enroll in Medicare from birth. She pledges to protect rural hospitals from spending cuts, extend ACA subsidies, and lower prescription drug costs through federal negotiation.

  • Supports universal healthcare by making Medicare an option available to all citizens from birth.
  • Pledges to protect Medicaid and rural hospitals from federal budget cuts.
  • Advocates extending ACA subsidies and empowering federal negotiation of prescription drug prices.
  • Calls for insurance reforms so physicians put patient care before corporate profits.

“Health care should be a right, not a privilege. Make Medicare an option that is available to everyone from the moment they are born.”

“Rural hospitals, nursing homes, veterans, and working families need a healthcare system that puts patients before insurance companies and political games.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Opposes federal healthcare mandates and expansions

Bergman opposes government-run healthcare systems and mandates, while leading efforts to block taxpayer funding for elective procedures such as transgender surgeries in the VA. He supports expanding telehealth options and community care access for veterans.

  • Opposes federal healthcare expansion mandates and public healthcare options.
  • Led congressional efforts to block VA taxpayer funding for elective transgender surgeries.
  • Supported the GHAPS Act (H.R. 4624) to expand veteran access to community care and telehealth.
  • Voted to terminate CDC COVID-19 vaccine proof requirements for foreign travelers (H.R. 185).

“Lead the charge against the Biden VA’s attempts to pay for elective transgender surgeries with tax-payer dollars through letters and amendments.”

03

Veterans' Services and Military Families

high salience

Barr emphasizes full federal funding for the VA and protections for family caregivers, whereas Bergman focuses on committee oversight, expanding private community care options, and legislative suicide prevention grants.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports full VA funding and caregiver protections

Drawing on her background as a Marine spouse and caregiver for her injured husband, Barr advocates for fully funding the VA and improving support services for military families. She vows to protect veterans from predatory benefit schemes and expand access to legal and mental health services.

  • Pledges to fully fund the Department of Veterans Affairs and enhance rural healthcare access.
  • Advocates protecting veterans from predatory benefit schemes and claim scams.
  • Leverages personal experience as a caregiver and advocate with Blue Star Families and the Rosalynn Carter Institute.
  • Focuses on mental health resources and legal services for veterans and military families.

“When Callie’s husband came home from Iraq and couldn’t get the care he needed, she fought for him and other military families with the nonprofit Blue Star Families and the Rosalynn Carter Institute for Caregiving.”

“Fully fund the VA and protect veterans from predatory benefit schemes.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports VA reform and expanded community care

As a retired Marine Corps lieutenant general and senior leader on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, Bergman prioritizes veteran suicide prevention, caregiver oversight, and access to private community care. He authored the IMPROVE Wellbeing for Veterans Act to provide community-level grants for veteran mental health.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Veterans' Affairs, holding subcommittee leadership roles.
  • Authored the IMPROVE Wellbeing for Veterans Act (Public Law 116-17) for local veteran suicide prevention grants.
  • Introduced the VA Caregiver Transparency Act (H.R. 4625) and VA AIM Act (H.R. 4626).
  • Passed legislation streamlining military education benefits and renaming the Gaylord VA facility.

“40 years in the Marine Corps and now in his capacity as a leader in the House Veterans Affairs Committee (HVAC), Congressman Bergman has committed his career in Congress to those who served and sacrificed to defend our Nation and our freedoms.”

04

Agriculture and Food Systems

medium salience

Barr focuses on ending consumer tariffs, reversing SNAP cuts, and expanding food assistance, while Bergman emphasizes agricultural deregulation, international trade protection, and capping guest-worker labor costs.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports local food supply programs and ending agricultural tariffs

Barr supports agricultural producers by calling for an end to foreign tariffs that raise equipment costs and depress crop prices. She advocates for reversing SNAP cuts, expanding local food banks, and deploying mobile markets in rural food deserts.

  • Calls for ending trade tariffs that burden local farmers and inflate grocery prices.
  • Supports reversing federal SNAP cuts to protect children, seniors, and disabled residents.
  • Advocates expanding mobile food markets in underserved rural communities facing food deserts.
  • Pledges support for regional food supply infrastructure and local food banks.

“End tariffs that hurt farmers and raise food prices.”

“Families need food that is affordable, healthy, and locally available. That means standing with farmers and strengthening the food systems that keep communities fed.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports agricultural deregulation and pro-producer trade protection

Endorsed by the Michigan Farm Bureau AgriPAC, Bergman supports trade agreements like the USMCA to open foreign markets for local dairy and crop producers. He has fought against foreign dumping of tart cherries and cosponsored legislation to address agricultural labor costs under the H-2A program.

  • Endorsed by the Michigan Farm Bureau AgriPAC.
  • Championed the USMCA to expand international market access for Michigan farmers.
  • Fought anti-competitive foreign dumping of tart cherries and secured over $60 million in surplus USDA crop purchases.
  • Cosponsored the Keep Food Local and Affordable Act (H.R. 5887) to cap H-2A guest-worker wage increases.

“In order to unleash their full potential, Congressman Bergman believes the federal government should always stand as an ally – and never impose burdensome anti-growth regulations on the men and women who feed America.”

05

Great Lakes and Natural Resources

medium salience

Barr focuses on environmental protections for clean water and the outdoor economy, whereas Bergman highlights securing federal appropriations for the GLRI, Soo Locks, and invasive species control.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports Great Lakes conservation and environmental stewardship

Barr prioritizes the protection of the Great Lakes and Northern Michigan's freshwater ecosystem, viewing environmental stewardship as vital for public health, clean drinking water, and the region's outdoor recreation economy.

  • Emphasizes protecting the Great Lakes as the world's largest body of freshwater.
  • Supports environmental stewardship policies to preserve clean drinking water and local shorelines.
  • Advocates balancing tourism and natural resource management to protect the outdoor economy.

“The Great Lakes contain the largest body of freshwater in the world, and we must protect it.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports Great Lakes restoration funding and invasive species control

Bergman highlights his legislative work securing federal funding for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) and the Soo Locks project. He supports invasive species mitigation, including preventing Asian carp entry and managing cormorant populations that damage native fish stocks.

  • Helped secure federal funding for the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) and Soo Locks modernization.
  • Introduced legislation to manage cormorant populations threatening local fisheries.
  • Supports barrier infrastructure projects to prevent Asian carp from entering the Great Lakes.

“Through the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative, I helped secure the largest investment in the Great Lakes in over two decades — ensuring we protect our most important resource for generations to come.”

06

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Barr advocates for federal protection of abortion rights and private medical decisions, whereas Bergman supports statutory abortion bans and prohibiting federal funds for abortion services.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports protecting abortion rights and healthcare privacy

Barr advocates for protecting women's reproductive freedom and healthcare access, asserting that personal medical decisions should remain between patients and doctors without government interference.

  • Supports legal protections for abortion and women's reproductive healthcare services.
  • Endorsed by Her Bold Move and MI List.
  • Opposes federal restrictions or political interference in personal healthcare decisions.

“In Congress, Callie will advocate for all people to make their own medical decisions, free from political interference.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Opposes abortion and supports pro-life legislation

Endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan PAC and Citizens for Traditional Values PAC, Bergman opposes abortion and supports statutory restrictions on abortion procedures, including bans on federal funding.

  • Endorsed by Right to Life of Michigan PAC.
  • Cosponsored the No Taxpayer Funding for Abortion Act (H.R. 18) to prohibit federal funds for abortion.
  • Supported the Pain-Capable Unborn Child Protection Act (H.R. 1080) and the Born-Alive Abortion Survivors Protection Act.
  • Cosponsored the Conscience Protection Act and Title X Abortion Provider Prohibition Act (H.R. 243).

“As a member of Congress, I will protect the unborn and move the pro-life message forward.”

“The first inalienable right described in the Declaration of Independence is the right to life, and the job of Congress is to protect our rights - not take them away.”

07

Rural Broadband and Infrastructure

medium salience

Barr frames broadband expansion as a core public infrastructure priority, while Bergman emphasizes targeted legislative mechanisms like levying fees on tech companies and expediting seasonal grant applications.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports federal expansion of rural high-speed broadband

Barr advocates for federal investments to expand high-speed internet access across rural areas of Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, viewing connectivity as vital for local businesses, schools, and remote healthcare.

  • Pledges to work to close the digital divide across Northern and Upper Michigan.
  • Supports federal funding for high-speed broadband deployment in underserved rural districts.
  • Links internet expansion to economic growth, small business development, and rural healthcare access.

“In Congress, Callie will join the efforts to close the digital divide and bring high-speed broadband to every corner of Northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports funding and targeted legislation for rural connectivity

Bergman serves on the House Rural Broadband Caucus and created a district advisory committee to secure federal broadband grants. He introduced legislation to require major technology firms to contribute to rural infrastructure funds and expedite funding approvals for regions with short construction seasons.

  • Member of the Bipartisan House Rural Broadband Caucus.
  • Supported over $2 billion in federal broadband funding in FY2021, including USDA ReConnect and NTIA grants.
  • Introduced the Big Tech Accountability for Broadband Act (H.R. 4905) to fund rural deployment through tech company fees.
  • Introduced the Rural Broadband Window of Opportunity Act (H.R. 1610) and the BOOST Act (H.R. 1362).

“Our families and businesses need reliable, fast, affordable internet – that’s why Congressman Jack Bergman is achieving and fighting for more connectivity than ever before.”

08

Gun Policy and Second Amendment

medium salience

Barr supports universal background checks, safe storage rules, and red flag laws alongside Second Amendment ownership, while Bergman opposes new gun control restrictions.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports gun safety regulations and Second Amendment rights

As a gun owner raised in a hunting family, Barr supports the Second Amendment while advocating for firearm safety measures. She supports universal background checks, safe storage laws, and red flag legislation to prevent gun violence and school shootings.

  • Supports Second Amendment rights for law-abiding gun owners.
  • Advocates for universal background checks on firearm purchases.
  • Supports federal safe storage requirements and red flag laws.
  • Emphasizes gun safety measures to reduce firearm-related injuries and school shootings.

“As a gun owner and a mother, Callie also believes that when it comes to firearms, common sense makes a lot of sense.”

“It’s why she supports common sense solutions that are supported by a majority of Americans and Michiganders, including background checks, safe storage, and red flag laws...”

Republican Jack Bergman

Opposes gun control and supports Second Amendment rights

Bergman strongly opposes new restrictions on firearm ownership, viewing the Second Amendment as a vital constitutional protection of individual liberty rather than just a right tied to hunting or sport.

  • Opposes federal gun control restrictions and firearm purchasing regulations.
  • Pledges to protect individual constitutional rights under the Second Amendment.
  • Frames gun rights as essential to maintaining a free nation.

“The right to bear arms is not just about hunting or target practice—it’s about being a free nation. I will protect the Second Amendment.”

09

Education and Childcare

medium salience

Barr advocates for increased public school funding, teacher pay, and expanded childcare, whereas Bergman champions school choice vouchers and restrictions on transgender participation in women's sports.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports public school funding and teacher support

A former high school English teacher, Barr advocates for fully funding public education, trade schools, and early childhood programs. Endorsed by teacher unions, she calls for increasing teacher compensation, reducing class sizes, and expanding access to affordable childcare.

  • Endorsed by the Michigan Education Association (MEA) and National Education Association (NEA).
  • Supports fully funding public education systems, career technical education, and trade schools.
  • Advocates for higher teacher compensation and smaller class sizes.
  • Calls for federal support to expand affordable childcare and early childhood education.

“This means trusting and paying our teachers, smaller class sizes, safer learning environments, and quality public schools no matter what zip code you live in.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports school choice and education reform

Bergman advocates for educational choice, including charter public options, private schooling, and homeschooling. He criticizes government monopolies in public education and voted for federal restrictions on transgender athletes in girls' sports.

  • Supports expanded school choice policies, including private school options and homeschooling.
  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
  • Criticizes traditional public school administration as a government monopoly.

“The government monopoly on education for a large portion of Americans is a tragedy and should be viewed as the modern civil rights issue of our time. We need to offer education reform that supports more choice in education, from public schooling to home schooling.”

10

Democracy and Election Administration

medium salience

Barr focuses on protecting voting rights and expanding ballot access, while Bergman voted against certifying the 2020 electoral votes in two states and voted for strict federal voter proof-of-citizenship requirements.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports protecting voting rights and democratic institutions

Barr emphasizes safeguarding democratic processes, protecting voting rights, and ensuring equal civic participation for all individuals, including people with physical and intellectual disabilities.

  • Identifies absolute commitment to democracy as the most vital principle for an elected official.
  • Pledges to defend voting rights and protect democratic institutions.
  • Advocates for equal rights and civic inclusion for individuals with disabilities.

“The most important characteristic of an elected official is her absolute committement to democracy and the democratic ideals that the United States was founded on.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports voter ID requirements and challenged 2020 election certification

Bergman voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election results in Arizona and Pennsylvania. He supports stricter voter identification rules, voting for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) to require documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration.

  • Voted against certifying 2020 presidential electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6-7, 2021.
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.
  • Voted for the No Rogue Rulings Act (NORRA of 2025, H.R. 1526) to limit nationwide federal court injunctions.

“Bergman voted against certifying the electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania.”

11

Public Safety and Opioid Crisis

low salience

Barr emphasizes full funding for police officers and local emergency responders, while Bergman focuses on federal intervention and community coordination to address opioid addiction and overdose rates.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports full funding for first responders and mental healthcare

Barr supports community safety by calling for full funding for law enforcement, firefighters, and emergency medical personnel, alongside expanded access to rural mental health treatment.

  • Supports fully funding police officers, firefighters, and emergency first responders.
  • Advocates expanding mental health services to enhance public safety.

“Callie knows that we want to live in safe communities and to do this, she supports fully funding our police officers, firefighters, and other first responders.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports a comprehensive federal strategy against the opioid epidemic

Bergman highlights the severe impact of opioid addiction and overdose deaths across Northern Michigan, advocating for federal coordination between law enforcement, healthcare providers, and local community groups.

  • Advocates comprehensive federal action targeting illegal drug trafficking and addiction.
  • Engages district community groups to address regional overdose trends and treatment access.

“According to CDC more than 1 million people died since 1999 from a drug overdose and more than 75% of drug overdose deaths in 2021 involved an opioid. This is not a simple problem and there are no simple solutions, but Congress must take a comprehensive approach...”

12

National Defense and Foreign Policy

low salience

Barr connects national defense with upholding democratic rights and supporting military families, whereas Bergman relies on his leadership of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and military general background.

Democratic Callie Barr

Supports strong national security and military support

Barr emphasizes supporting service members and national defense while upholding democratic values and civil rights both domestically and internationally.

  • Supports maintaining national security against domestic and foreign threats.
  • Advocates protecting service members and military families.

“Callie will take care of our veterans while ensuring our national security and protecting against threats at home and abroad.”

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports military readiness and strict troop deployment thresholds

Bergman leverages his military background as a retired Marine Corps general to lead defense readiness efforts in Congress. He chairs the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and advocates for strict constitutional limits before sending troops into conflict.

  • Chairs the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness.
  • Former Chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations.
  • Voted for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024.
  • Advocates high readiness standards while supporting troop deployments only when vital.

“He is fully committed to only support the use of troops when it is absolutely necessary. When the threat requires the deployment of our military, Congressman Bergman will ensure that our troops are trained and equipped to win decisively...”

13

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Bergman advocates for physical border wall construction, asylum restrictions, and penalizing sanctuary cities, whereas Barr has no documented position in the provided sources.

Democratic Callie Barr No documented position in our sources

Republican Jack Bergman

Supports strict border enforcement and barrier construction

Bergman views border security as a fundamental component of national security. He supports funding physical border barriers, closing legal loopholes in asylum processing, and penalizing sanctuary jurisdictions.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act (H.R. 875).
  • Cosponsored the BUILD WALL Act (H.R. 88) to fund border barriers using seized cartel assets.
  • Sponsored the No Tax Breaks for Sanctuary Cities Act (H.R. 894) to revoke tax exemptions for non-compliant jurisdictions.
  • Cosponsored the Fix Immigration Loopholes Act (H.R. 1901) to reform asylum screening procedures.

“Border security is National Security. We are a welcoming Nation, but we are a Nation of rule of law.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MI-01 House Election Winner

93.5% Republicans
7.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 93.5DEMOCRATS 7.5

Kalshi ↗

MI-01 House winner?

94.8% Jack Bergman
7.1% Callie Barr
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16BERGMAN 94.8PARTY 87.0PARTY 13.0BARR 7.1

Kalshi ↗

MI-01 Republican nominee?

99.0% Jack Bergman
1.0% Matthew DenOtter
1.0% Justin Michal
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BERGMAN 99.0DENOTTER 1.0MICHAL 1.0

Kalshi ↗

MI-01 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Callie Barr
1.0% Kyle Blomquist
1.0% Wayne Stiles
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BARR 99.0BLOMQUIST 1.0STILES 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.