Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Maine Lean R

Maine’s 2nd District race

The 2026 election for Maine's 2nd Congressional District is an open-seat battleground race following the retirement of Democratic incumbent Jared Golden. Democratic nominee Matthew Dunlap, Maine's State Auditor and former Secretary of State, faces former Republican Governor Paul LePage in a district won three times by Donald Trump. The matchup hinges on contrasting economic visions, healthcare policies, and the candidates' executive records in state government.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Kalshi ↗
Paul LePage
56.0%
Matthew Dunlap
46.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Dunlap opposes tariffs and advocates government investment in housing and childcare, whereas LePage focuses on eliminating wasteful spending, lowering taxes, and cutting regulations to curb inflation.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Lowers costs by ending tariffs

Dunlap blames rising cost of living on federal tariffs and foreign conflicts like the war in Iran. He proposes lowering household costs through universal childcare, expanded affordable housing, and making corporations and billionaires pay their fair share. He advocates lifting blanket tariffs to relieve price pressures on groceries, gas, and home heating.

  • Lift blanket tariffs imposed by the Trump administration
  • Establish universal childcare and expand affordable housing
  • Make billionaires and corporations pay their fair share of taxes
  • End foreign conflicts driving up fuel costs

“In Congress, I’ll fight for universal childcare, good-paying jobs, and a surge in affordable housing to help our neighbors manage a middle-class life again.”

Republican Paul LePage

Curbs inflation by cutting spending

LePage focuses on eliminating wasteful federal spending that he argues drove up inflation under the Biden administration. Drawing on his business experience, he advocates for lowering taxes, cutting red tape, and reducing government regulation to stimulate job growth. He positions himself as a fiscal conservative focused on protecting family and senior budgets.

  • Eliminate wasteful government spending to reduce inflation
  • Lower taxes and reduce regulatory red tape
  • Unleash free-market job creation based on business executive experience

“He will work to eliminate wasteful spending which drove up inflation under Biden.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Dunlap advocates for Medicare for All and expanding Medicaid, while LePage focuses on protecting existing Medicare and Social Security programs without structural expansions.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports Medicare for All

Dunlap advocates transitioning to a Medicare for All system to guarantee healthcare access and lower costs. He calls for standing up to Big Pharma, re-establishing ACA tax credits, and reversing Medicaid cuts that hurt rural hospitals.

  • Enact Medicare for All system
  • Reverse Medicaid cuts affecting rural hospital clinics
  • Re-establish Affordable Care Act tax credits
  • Cap prescription drug prices and challenge pharmaceutical companies

“It's past time to move towards a Medicare-for-all system that puts people’s health and financial well-being over private profits for health insurance companies and executives.”

Republican Paul LePage

Protects Medicare and Social Security

LePage commits to protecting Medicare and Social Security benefits for seniors without cutting programs. During his governorship, he opposed Medicaid expansion and vetoed bills expanding access to harm-reduction medications.

  • Protect Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors
  • Secure local hospitals from financial insolvency
  • Opposed Medicaid expansion during tenure as governor

“Paul has always protected, and will always protect, Social Security and Medicare.”

03

Democracy and governance

medium salience

Dunlap highlights his record suing Trump's voter fraud commission and defending voting access, while LePage emphasizes fighting government overreach and executive leadership.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Protects voting rights and law

Dunlap emphasizes his record as Secretary of State successfully suing to disband President Trump's voter fraud commission. He pledges to resist partisan redistricting and voting restrictions on absentee ballots and voter ID.

  • Successfully sued and disbanded Trump's voter-fraud commission
  • Oppose restrictions on absentee voting and voter ID rules
  • Uphold the rule of law against authoritarian executive overreach

“When I was Secretary of State, I sued Trump’s sham voter-fraud commission. I won and got it disbanded.”

Republican Paul LePage

Opposes government overreach

LePage promises to fight government overreach and defend constitutional liberties. His gubernatorial tenure was marked by frequent conflicts with the legislature over veto power and executive authority.

  • Fight federal government overreach
  • Defend constitutional liberties and family rights
  • Maintain strict executive oversight over state spending

“Paul will defend your Second Amendment rights, fight government overreach, and stand up for parents and families.”

04

Education and culture

low salience

Dunlap opposes tax cuts for billionaires in favor of school funding, while LePage focuses on parental rights and opposing transgender participation in girls' sports.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Funds public schools over tax breaks

Dunlap ran campaign advertisements criticizing federal tax breaks for billionaires at the expense of public school funding.

  • Prioritize federal investment in K-12 public schools
  • Oppose billionaire tax cuts that reduce school funding

Republican Paul LePage

Opposes woke extremism in schools

LePage positions himself as a defender of parents and families, advocating against what he calls woke extremism in schools. He specifically opposes transgender participation in female sports.

  • Oppose transgender female participation in girls' sports
  • Protect parental rights in education
  • Highlight past gubernatorial record of increasing K-12 spending

“bring our northern Maine economy back, help end the woke extremism — putting boys in girls sports, protect our freedoms like the Second Amendment”

05

Guns

low salience

Dunlap emphasizes Maine's outdoor heritage, while LePage emphasizes defending Second Amendment rights against government overreach.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports Maine's outdoor heritage

Dunlap draws on his past background as executive director of the Sportsman's Alliance of Maine and NRA member to advocate for Maine's outdoor sporting tradition.

  • Protect Maine's hunting and outdoor sporting heritage

Republican Paul LePage

Defends Second Amendment rights

LePage pledges to defend gun owners' freedoms and Second Amendment rights against federal government restrictions.

  • Defend Second Amendment gun rights against federal legislation

“Paul will defend your Second Amendment rights, fight government overreach, and stand up for parents and families.”

06

Border security and immigration

medium salience
Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Secures border and finishes wall

LePage pledges to finish the southern border wall and end illegal immigration to restore law and order. As governor, he strongly opposed the federal government's resettlement of Syrian refugees in Maine.

  • Finish construction of the border wall
  • End illegal immigration and enforce immigration laws
  • Oppose unvetted refugee resettlement in Maine

“Paul will fight to finish the wall, end illegal immigration, and restore law and order.”

07

Labor and trade

medium salience

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports PRO Act and unions

Dunlap pledges 100% support for labor unions, advocating for the PRO Act to defend workers' rights, fair wages, and collective bargaining. He supports targeted trade policies against unfair foreign practices while removing blanket tariffs.

  • Pass the PRO Act to protect union organizing
  • Defend fair wages and safe working conditions
  • Apply strategic tariffs against unfair foreign trade while removing blanket tariffs

“I am 100% pro-labor. As a former labor union member, I’ll be a steadfast pro-union voice in Congress.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
08

Abortion

medium salience

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports constitutional abortion rights

Dunlap views reproductive healthcare decisions as a fundamental personal choice for women without government interference. He supports establishing safe access to abortion as a constitutional right.

  • Protect a woman's right to make her own health decisions
  • Establish safe access to reproductive healthcare as a constitutional right

“Safe access to reproductive health care should be a constitutional right.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
09

Foreign policy

medium salience

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Opposes war in Iran

Dunlap opposes military intervention in Iran, calling it an illegal war of choice that inflates energy prices. He advocates redirecting foreign war spending toward domestic priorities like healthcare and infrastructure.

  • End military involvement in Iran
  • Redirect federal spending from foreign wars to domestic priorities

“While we’re at it, we’re going to fight to advance policies that will actually help Mainers — like Medicare for All, affordable childcare, a lower cost of living, and stopping this illegal war in Iran.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
10

Veterans

low salience
Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Protects veterans' benefits and healthcare

LePage highlights his long-standing work with veterans' charities in Maine and promises to safeguard healthcare and earned benefits for military veterans.

  • Protect veterans' healthcare access
  • Safeguard earned benefits for military veterans

“In Congress, Paul will fight to protect Veterans healthcare and the benefits earned by the men and women who served.”

11

Cryptocurrency and technology

low salience
Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Supports crypto and deregulation

LePage advocates cutting regulations to foster tech innovation and defends the right of Americans to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency.

  • Protect rights to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency
  • Cut burdensome tech and financial regulations

“Paul supports the right of Americans to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency without unnecessary government interference.”

Prediction markets 1

updated Oct 31

Kalshi ↗

ME-02 House winner?

56.0% Paul LePage
46.0% Matthew Dunlap
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 29SEP 12SEP 26OCT 10OCT 24OCT 31LEPAGE 56.0DUNLAP 46.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.