Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Maine Lean R

Maine — 2nd District

Maine's 2nd Congressional District features an open general election between Democratic State Auditor Matthew Dunlap and Republican former Governor Paul LePage following incumbent Jared Golden's decision not to seek re-election. The race in this rural, Trump-leaning district hinges on economic pressure, cost of living, healthcare delivery, and contrasts between Dunlap's progressive platform and LePage's conservative executive record. Rating outlets generally view the district as favoring the Republican nominee, with Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Likely Republican, and Decision Desk HQ rating it Lean Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Kalshi ↗
Paul LePage
56.0%
Matthew Dunlap
42.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of Living and Economy

high salience

Dunlap proposes lifting tariffs, taxing corporations, and expanding public housing and childcare to reduce costs, while LePage focuses on eliminating wasteful government spending, cutting taxes, and reducing regulations.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Lower costs by ending tariffs

Dunlap attributes high inflation and rising prices to blanket tariffs from the Trump administration and foreign military conflicts in Iran. He advocates for lifting these tariffs, expanding affordable housing, enacting universal childcare, and making corporations and billionaires pay their fair share in taxes.

  • Lift blanket tariffs that drive up prices on consumer goods and home heating
  • Enact universal childcare and surge investments in affordable housing
  • Ensure billionaires and large corporations pay their fair share of taxes

“Prices are rising fast, and thanks to the Trump Administration, they’re not coming down.”

“And I’ll fight to lift Trump’s blanket tariffs and end his war of choice so families can afford to live in Maine.”

Republican Paul LePage

Cut spending and lower taxes

LePage pledges to combat inflation by curbing wasteful federal spending and reducing red tape for businesses. Drawing on his experience as governor and business executive, he advocates for tax cuts and lower energy costs to spur job growth.

  • Eliminate wasteful federal spending to curb inflation
  • Lower taxes and reduce regulatory red tape to stimulate job creation
  • Lower electricity and energy costs for families and businesses

“Paul will help secure our broken borders, support Maine jobs, grow our economy, and help lower inflation by ending wasteful spending.”

“Lower taxes. Less red tape. More jobs for Maine families.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Dunlap supports a single-payer Medicare for All system and reversing Medicaid cuts, while LePage pledges to protect existing Medicare, Social Security, and local hospital access.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports Medicare for All

Dunlap advocates transitioning to a single-payer Medicare for All system to eliminate corporate health insurance profits and lower prescription drug costs. He also pledges to protect Social Security and Medicaid and reverse cuts that harm rural Maine hospitals.

  • Enact a Medicare for All healthcare system
  • Protect Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security
  • Reverse Medicaid cuts affecting rural hospital clinics and maternity wards
  • Re-establish ACA tax credits and rein in pharmaceutical drug prices

“It's past time to move towards a Medicare-for-all system that puts people’s health and financial well-being over private profits for health insurance companies and executives.”

“Paul LePage supported the Medicaid cuts that are leaving too many Mainers without care and forcing hospitals across the state to shut down maternity wards and other clinics.”

Republican Paul LePage

Protect Medicare and rural hospitals

LePage pledges to protect entitlement programs like Medicare and Social Security from cuts. He also highlights securing local hospitals and preserving healthcare benefits earned by military veterans.

  • Protect Medicare and Social Security from benefit reductions
  • Secure funding and support for Maine hospitals
  • Safeguard healthcare benefits for veterans

“Paul has always protected, and will always protect, Social Security and Medicare.”

“...secure our hospitals ... [and] always protect social security and Medicare.”

03

Border Security and Immigration

medium salience

LePage explicitly campaigns on finishing the border wall and stopping illegal immigration, whereas Dunlap outlines no detailed border security platform in the sources.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Supports border wall and enforcement

LePage places border security at the forefront of his platform, advocating to finish the southern border wall, end illegal immigration, and restore law and order. During his gubernatorial administration, he also strongly opposed placing Syrian refugees in Maine.

  • Finish construction of the southern border wall
  • End illegal immigration and enforce immigration laws
  • Opposed federal placement of Syrian refugees in Maine during his tenure as governor

“Paul will fight to finish the wall, end illegal immigration, and restore law and order.”

“I adamantly oppose any attempt by the federal government to place Syrian refugees in Maine, and will take every lawful measure in my power to prevent it from happening.”

04

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Dunlap supports enshrining abortion access as a constitutional right, while LePage has no documented platform position on abortion in the provided sources.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports constitutional reproductive rights

Dunlap firmly defends abortion rights, holding that reproductive choices belong solely to women without government interference. He supports establishing safe access to reproductive care as a constitutional right.

  • Protect a woman's right to make her own reproductive health choices
  • Establish safe access to reproductive healthcare as a constitutional right

“The decision to terminate a pregnancy belongs to the woman faced with whatever circumstances that affect her, and no one should have the right to predetermine what health choices any woman makes.”

“Safe access to reproductive health care should be a constitutional right.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
05

Labor and Union Rights

medium salience

Dunlap explicitly commits to passing the pro-union PRO Act, whereas LePage provides no specific labor union policy in the text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Supports pro-union PRO Act

As a former union member, Dunlap describes himself as 100% pro-labor. He pledges to champion the federal PRO Act to safeguard worker rights, safe working conditions, fair wages, and collective bargaining.

  • Pass the federal PRO Act
  • Defend workers' right to organize and bargain collectively
  • Protect fair wages and safe working conditions

“As a former labor union member, I’ll be a steadfast pro-union voice in Congress. That means fighting for workers’ rights through legislation like the PRO Act, defending fair wages, safe working conditions, and the right to organize.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
06

Democracy and Voting Rights

medium salience

Dunlap actively opposes voter ID requirements and Republican redistricting attempts, while LePage lists no specific voting administration policy in the provided text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Opposes voter restrictions and gerrymandering

Highlighting his tenure as Maine Secretary of State, Dunlap points to his lawsuit that successfully disbanded President Trump's voter-fraud commission. He opposes mid-decade redistricting efforts as well as restrictions on absentee voting and voter ID requirements.

  • Oppose restrictions on absentee ballots and voter ID laws
  • Resist mid-decade redistricting pushes intended to rig elections
  • Defend the rule of law against executive overreach

“When I was Secretary of State, I sued Trump’s sham voter-fraud commission. I won and got it disbanded.”

“Republicans are also pushing for restrictions on absentee ballots and voter identification requirements—proposals recently defeated by Maine voters.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
07

Guns and Second Amendment

medium salience

LePage explicitly vows to defend Second Amendment rights, whereas Dunlap outlines no formal policy statement on firearms in the provided source text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Defends Second Amendment rights

LePage emphasizes defending constitutional liberties, specifically highlighting his commitment to protecting Second Amendment gun rights against government regulation.

  • Protect Second Amendment rights
  • Oppose federal government overreach regarding gun ownership

“Paul will defend your Second Amendment rights, fight government overreach, and stand up for parents and families.”

08

Foreign Policy and Defense

medium salience

Dunlap actively calls for an end to military intervention in Iran to lower gas prices, while LePage outlines no foreign policy position in the text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap

Opposes foreign war in Iran

Dunlap opposes U.S. military operations in Iran, calling it an illegal war of choice that drives up domestic energy prices. He advocates ending foreign conflicts to refocus public spending on domestic healthcare and middle-class needs.

  • End U.S. military conflict in Iran
  • Redirect foreign war spending toward domestic healthcare and infrastructure

“While we’re at it, we’re going to fight to advance policies that will actually help Mainers — like Medicare for All, affordable childcare, a lower cost of living, and stopping this illegal war in Iran.”

Republican Paul LePage No documented position in our sources
09

Technology and Cryptocurrency

low salience

LePage champions cryptocurrency rights and tech deregulation, whereas Dunlap takes no position on digital assets in the provided text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Supports cryptocurrency and deregulation

LePage advocates for economic freedom in technology, supporting the right of Americans to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency without federal interference. He argues deregulation is key to maintaining U.S. tech leadership.

  • Protect Americans' right to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency
  • Eliminate burdensome regulations slowing tech innovation
  • Maintain U.S. economic leadership in emerging tech

“Paul supports the right of Americans to buy, trade, and invest in cryptocurrency without unnecessary government interference.”

“Crypto technology represents a new frontier of economic freedom, and the UnitedStates should lead, not fall behind, by keeping innovation here at home and in the hands of the American people.”

10

Culture and Education

low salience

LePage campaigns against 'woke extremism' and transgender participation in female athletics, while Dunlap presents no platform on cultural issues in the sources.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Opposes transgender athletes in female sports

LePage calls for opposing 'woke extremism', explicitly advocating to prohibit biological boys from competing in girls' sports programs and pledging to stand up for parental rights.

  • End 'woke extremism' in public policies
  • Prevent biological males from competing in female sports divisions
  • Stand up for parental rights in education

“...help end the woke extremism — putting boys in girls sports...”

11

Veterans Affairs

low salience

LePage explicitly highlights protecting veterans' healthcare and earned benefits, while Dunlap outlines no explicit veterans policy in the text.

Democratic Matthew Dunlap No documented position in our sources

Republican Paul LePage

Protects veterans healthcare and benefits

Citing years of involvement with veterans' charities in Maine, LePage promises to defend healthcare access and earned benefits for military veterans in Congress.

  • Protect healthcare services for military veterans
  • Defend earned benefits for military service members

“In Congress, Paul will fight to protect Veterans healthcare and the benefits earned by the men and women who served.”

Prediction markets 1

updated Sep 16

Kalshi ↗

ME-02 House winner?

56.0% Paul LePage
42.0% Matthew Dunlap
255075100AUG 1AUG 8AUG 15AUG 22AUG 29SEP 5SEP 12SEP 16LEPAGE 56.0DUNLAP 42.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.