Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Massachusetts Safe D

Massachusetts — 9th District

Portrait of R. Tyler MacAllister

Republican

R. Tyler MacAllister

In Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, seven-term Democratic incumbent Bill Keating faces Republican challenger R. Tyler MacAllister, a Mattapoisett Select Board member and veteran commercial fisherman. The race hinges on regional economic pressures, commercial fishing regulations, offshore wind development, and federal spending priorities across Cape Cod, the Islands, South Coast, and South Shore. Major nonpartisan election handicappers including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Decision Desk HQ rate the general election contest as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.2%
Republicans
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Bill Keating
97.8%
R. Tyler MacAllister
4.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bill Keating
99.0%
Craig Swallow
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

MacAllister pledges to curb Washington spending and mandates to lower cost of living, while Keating highlights his support for working families and opposition to Republican federal budget cuts.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports working families and targeted tax relief

Keating emphasizes supporting working families, small businesses, and labor unions to strengthen the regional economy. He voted against major Republican spending and tax legislation in the 119th Congress while supporting targeted tax credits for families.

  • Voted against H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) in 2025
  • Voted against Republican budget resolutions H.Con.Res. 14 and full-year continuing appropriations
  • Voted YEA on the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
  • Endorsed by major labor organizations including the Massachusetts AFL-CIO and United Steelworkers

“Bill’s priorities have always been protecting our citizens, whether by promoting policies to strengthen our economy while allowing small businesses to thrive or ensuring healthcare benefits and civil rights are protected for all.”

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister

Opposes federal spending driving up costs

MacAllister argues that rising prices for groceries, fuel, and housing are driven by federal spending and government mandates. He promises to fight for policies that reward work and cut wasteful federal spending to help local families get ahead.

  • Promises to take on Washington spending driving up kitchen-table costs
  • Focuses on high cost of living in Massachusetts pricing families out of local communities
  • Advocates cutting federal waste and lowering taxes

“Tyler will take on the mandates and Washington spending driving up kitchen-table costs, and fight for common-sense policy that rewards work and lets families in the 9th get ahead instead of just getting by.”

02

Commercial Fishing and Offshore Wind

high salience

MacAllister opposes industrial wind farms in fishing grounds and federal fleet regulation, whereas Keating supports the local fishing industry alongside clean energy investments and federal infrastructure grants.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports local fishing industry and clean energy

Keating advocates for federal resources to support New Bedford's fishing industry and local marine infrastructure. He also supports clean energy initiatives backed by environmental organizations while securing federal funding for regional infrastructure.

  • Delivered federal resources and support for New Bedford's commercial fishing fleet
  • Endorsed by Clean Water Action for advancing clean energy and infrastructure
  • Secured over $1.7 billion in federal funding toward the replacement of Cape Cod bridges

“Congressman Keating brings major resource to our community and to the fishing industry which is a key economic driver to New Bedford.”

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister

Opposes offshore wind in fishing grounds

MacAllister strongly opposes industrial wind farms in regional fishing grounds and data center projects that burden local utilities. Drawing on 40 years of commercial fishing experience, he opposes federal overreach and pushes for science-based policies to protect the working waterfront.

  • Opposes industrial offshore wind farms in local fishing grounds
  • Opposes data center developments that strain the electrical grid and water supply
  • Advocates for science-based fisheries policy and standing up to federal overreach

“No industrial wind farms in our fishing grounds, and no data centers draining our grid and our water.”

“Tyler will stand up to the federal overreach and bad rules choking the fleet, and push for practical, science-based policy that keeps our working waterfront alive for the next generation.”

03

Energy Policy

high salience

MacAllister calls for an all-of-the-above energy strategy to reduce utility rates, while Keating supports clean energy advancement and voted against Republican domestic energy legislation.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports clean energy transition and infrastructure

Keating supports clean energy initiatives, water infrastructure protection, and environmental conservation. He voted against the Republican Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) in the 118th Congress.

  • Voted NAY on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1)
  • Endorsed by Clean Water Action for promoting clean energy and water infrastructure
  • Focuses on confronting PFAS contamination and protecting coastal ecosystems

“Protecting clean water, confronting PFAS contamination, investing in critical water infrastructure, and advancing clean energy are essential to our communities' health and future.”

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister

Supports all-of-the-above energy strategy

MacAllister advocates an all-of-the-above energy approach focused on affordability and grid reliability. He pledges to prioritize lowering high electricity and heating costs over ideological energy mandates.

  • Supports an all-of-the-above energy approach to lower heating and utility bills
  • Pledges to prioritize reliable and affordable power
  • Opposes high-cost mandates and projects that export profits while burdening ratepayers

“Tyler backs an all-of-the-above energy approach that puts reliable, affordable power ahead of ideology — and works to drive our sky-high energy costs back down.”

04

Public Safety and Emergency Services

medium salience

Both candidates emphasize community safety: MacAllister focuses on backing local police and child safety standards, while Keating highlights federal funding for fire departments and gun safety endorsements.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports emergency responders and gun safety

Keating emphasizes public safety through delivering federal grants to local fire departments and supporting gun safety measures. He has been recognized as a Gun Sense Candidate by Moms Demand Action and is endorsed by local firefighter unions.

  • Helped secure over $250,000 in federal training funding and FEMA grants for the New Bedford Fire Department
  • Endorsed by New Bedford Firefighters Local 841
  • Recognized as a Gun Sense Candidate by Moms Demand Action

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister

Supports local police and child safety

MacAllister prioritizes backing local law enforcement and establishing common-sense child safety standards to ensure secure communities throughout the district.

  • Pledges to back local police departments across the 9th District
  • Supports common-sense child-safety standards
  • Focuses on community safety as a core local priority

“Tyler will back our local police, stand up for common-sense child-safety standards, and fight to keep the communities of the 9th District places where our kids can grow up secure.”

05

Veterans and Seniors

medium salience

Both candidates express strong support for honoring commitments to veterans and seniors, with MacAllister promising to protect earned benefits and Keating citing his constituent advocacy.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports benefits for veterans and seniors

Keating highlights his ongoing work advocating for veterans, senior citizens, and families across the district. His supporters point to his long record of protecting healthcare and federal benefit programs.

  • Advocates for federal programs supporting local veterans and seniors
  • Supported legislation protecting healthcare and earned benefit programs
  • Cited by local supporters for constituent advocacy on veterans' issues

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister

Pledges to protect earned benefits

MacAllister promises to ensure Washington fulfills its commitments to veterans and senior citizens by protecting their earned retirement and healthcare benefits.

  • Pledges to protect earned benefits for veterans and seniors
  • Framed as keeping promises made through a lifetime of work and service
  • Focuses on ensuring federal accountability for senior and veteran support

“Our veterans and seniors kept their word — Washington should keep its word to them. Tyler will fight to protect the benefits they earned through a lifetime of service and work, and make sure the promises made to them are promises kept.”

06

Healthcare

medium salience

Keating actively opposes Republican cuts to Medicaid and champions Medicare for All, whereas MacAllister has not detailed a formal healthcare platform.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports protecting Medicaid and Medicare for All

Keating strongly opposes federal legislation that cuts Medicaid funding or reduces healthcare access. Endorsed by the Massachusetts Nurses Association, he advocates protecting Medicaid and continuing the push for Medicare for All.

  • Opposes the federal 'Big Beautiful Bill' for slashing Medicaid funding
  • Supports protecting Medicaid and advancing Medicare for All
  • Endorsed by the Massachusetts Nurses Association

“Trump and his MAGA allies passed their “Big Beautiful Bill,” which slashes Medicaid and strips healthcare from working families, putting patients and providers at risk.”

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister No documented position in our sources
07

LGBTQ+ Rights and Civil Rights

medium salience

Keating actively champions LGBTQ+ and transgender rights, whereas MacAllister has no documented position on social or LGBTQ+ legislation.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports LGBTQ+ equality and civil rights

Keating is a vocal advocate for civil rights, reproductive freedom, and LGBTQ+ equality. He voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act in 2025 and earned endorsements from Equality PAC, Bay State Stonewall Democrats, and the Human Rights Campaign.

  • Voted NAY on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)
  • Endorsed by the Human Rights Campaign, Equality PAC, and Bay State Stonewall Democrats
  • Pledges to defend transgender rights and reproductive freedoms against federal rollbacks

“At a time when the rights and freedoms of LGBTQ+ Americans, particularly transgender Americans, are under attack, silence is not an option.”

Republican R. Tyler MacAllister No documented position in our sources
08

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Keating opposes major Republican border enforcement and detention bills while supporting targeted measures for criminal offenses; MacAllister has not published a detailed immigration platform.

Democratic Bill Keating

Supports targeted enforcement, opposes broad detention mandates

Keating has taken a selective voting approach on immigration enforcement, voting against broad Republican border security and mandatory detention bills while supporting legislation making DUIs grounds for deportation.

  • Voted NAY on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention for certain theft arrests
  • Voted NAY on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)
  • Voted YEA on H.R. 875 making driving under the influence grounds for deportation
Republican R. Tyler MacAllister No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MA-09 House Election Winner

95.2% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.2REPUBLICANS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

MA-09 House winner?

97.8% Bill Keating
4.0% R. Tyler MacAllister
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 97.8KEATING 97.8PARTY 4.0MACALLISTER 4.0

Kalshi ↗

MA-09 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Bill Keating
1.0% Craig Swallow
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16KEATING 99.0SWALLOW 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.