Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Massachusetts Safe D

Massachusetts — 4th District

Portrait of Jake Auchincloss

Democrat

Jake Auchincloss

TS

Republican

Thomas Stalcup

The 2026 election for Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District features incumbent Democratic Representative Jake Auchincloss against Republican challenger Thomas Stalcup, a PhD physicist and entrepreneur. Auchincloss, a Marine veteran serving in Congress since 2021, emphasizes defending democratic norms, lowering prescription drug prices, expanding housing supply, and exercising legislative oversight on foreign policy. Stalcup, a former Bernie Sanders supporter running as an independent-minded Republican under the banner 'Science Over Politics', proposes universal hybrid healthcare, drug price negotiation, minimum wage increases, and strict War Powers oversight. Major nonpartisan rating outlets rate the district as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
97.3%
Republicans
0.6%
Kalshi ↗
Jake Auchincloss
97.5%
Tom Stalcup
4.1%
Kalshi ↗
Jake Auchincloss
99.0%
Jason Poulos
2.0%
Chris Boyd
1.0%

All markets →

01

Healthcare & Prescription Drug Costs

high salience

While Auchincloss defends existing federal programs like the ACA and Inflation Reduction Act to lower costs, Stalcup proposes a hybrid system combining universal Medicare with cross-state private insurance competition and unrestricted drug price negotiations.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Supports drug price negotiation and universal access

Auchincloss advocates for lowering drug prices for seniors and middle-class families while expanding healthcare access as a fundamental human right. He voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to enable Medicare price negotiation and supports protecting women's reproductive decisions.

  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices
  • Advocates treating healthcare as a human right rather than a job perk
  • Pledges to protect seniors from high prescription drug costs

“Jake is focused on defending democracy in Washington and lowering prices in Massachusetts.”

“A pandemic is exactly the time to finally ensure that healthcare is a human right, not a job perk; that no senior citizen struggles to pay for the drugs they need, and that every woman controls her own reproductive decisions.”

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Supports hybrid Medicare system and drug negotiations

Stalcup proposes a hybrid healthcare system that guarantees Medicare coverage for all Americans while allowing private insurers to compete across state lines. He calls for immediate drug price negotiations without artificial limits, Canadian drug imports, and reforms to PBM practices.

  • Guarantees Medicare coverage for every American alongside cross-state private insurance competition
  • Demands broad prescription drug price negotiations without artificial drug limits
  • Supports safe Canadian prescription drug imports and restricting pharmaceutical and PBM price inflation
  • Proposes using cannabis and vaping industry tax revenues to fund youth prevention campaigns

“I would pursue a hybrid healthcare system that guarantees Medicare coverage for every American while allowing private insurers to compete across state lines under strong consumer protections.”

“That starts with immediate, broad drug price negotiation—without artificial limits on which drugs are included.”

02

Foreign Policy & Defense

high salience

Both candidates express skepticism of unauthorized foreign conflicts, but Auchincloss focuses on legislative funding resistance against Middle East actions, whereas Stalcup emphasizes structural reforms like removing defense contractors from policy decisions and enforcing War Powers oversight.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Opposes unauthorized Middle East wars

Auchincloss, a Marine veteran, opposes unauthorized military interventions in the Middle East and vows not to vote for funding what he calls illegal wars. He urges strong economic statecraft to cut off illicit trade and isolate hostile foreign regimes like Iran and China.

  • Pledged to refuse funding for unauthorized military operations in the Middle East
  • Voted against National Defense Authorization Acts (FY2024 and FY2025)
  • Advocates for targeted economic statecraft to halt fentanyl exports from China and Iranian oil imports

“No more troops, no more treasure. No more wars in the Middle East.”

“Jake joins Bloomberg to discuss how he will not vote “for a single dollar” to fund what he calls a failed and illegal war, arguing Congress must prevent it from becoming a “forever war.””

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Advocates restraint and War Powers oversight

Stalcup advocates for a foreign policy centered on maintaining a strong defense while avoiding unnecessary wars of choice. He seeks to strictly enforce Congress's War Powers authority and limit defense contractors to technical roles to prevent commercial interests from influencing war policy.

  • Pledges to use War Powers resolutions and funding controls to end unauthorized foreign wars
  • Advocates restricting defense contractors to technical and advisory functions rather than policy decision-making
  • Emphasizes strong defensive deterrence backed by intelligence and special operations

“I would use War Powers resolutions and Congress’s control of funding to end unauthorized wars and prevent future presidents from bypassing Congress.”

“To achieve this, we must limit the role of those with financial interests in war to technical and advisory functions—not policy decisions.”

03

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience

Auchincloss focuses his stance on condemning aggressive ICE tactics and voting against restrictive GOP border bills, while Stalcup outlines a specific reform framework mandating ICE body cameras and establishing legal options for long-settled undocumented residents.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Opposes paramilitary enforcement and border crackdowns

Auchincloss criticizes aggressive federal immigration enforcement, characterizing ICE's tactics as a presidential paramilitary. He consistently voted against conservative border enforcement bills while supporting targeted measures to deport non-citizens convicted of drunk driving.

  • Voted against the Secure the Border Act of 2023 and the Laken Riley Act
  • Criticized ICE operations, labeling the agency an instrument of fear
  • Voted Yea on the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025

“Jake debates Fox News' Peter Doocy on how ICE has morphed from targeted immigration enforcement into a presidential paramilitary.”

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Supports ICE accountability and legal pathways

Stalcup advocates for humane reforms to immigration enforcement, including body cameras and standardized rules for ICE. He supports protecting long-settled undocumented workers from deportation alongside a structured reentry process for recent arrivals without asylum claims.

  • Mandates body cameras and standardized humane-training rules for ICE operations
  • Protects long-settled undocumented workers from deportation
  • Establishes a time-limited self-departure and lawful reentry process for recent arrivals lacking viable asylum claims

“I would require body cameras and standardized humane-training rules for ICE operations, protect long-settled undocumented workers from deportation, and create a time-limited self-departure and lawful reentry process for recent arrivals without viable asylum claims.”

04

Economy & Housing

medium salience

Auchincloss prioritizes boosting housing supply through zoning reform and taxing inherited wealth, whereas Stalcup focuses on raising and indexing the federal minimum wage to protect wage earners.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Supports homebuilding expansion and wealth taxation

Auchincloss focuses on lowering housing costs by expanding construction and endorsing state lot-size zoning reforms. On federal taxation, he advocates closing loopholes used by ultra-wealthy estates to create a national tax on inherited wealth.

  • Endorsed 2026 Massachusetts Question 7 to limit required lot sizes for single-family home development
  • Advocates building more housing supply to reduce high purchase prices for young adults
  • Proposes closing the buy-borrow-die loophole to tax inherited wealth held by billionaires

“To make housing more affordable, build more housing.”

“Closing the billionaires' buy-borrow-die loophole = a national tax on inherited wealth.”

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Supports minimum wage increase indexed to inflation

Stalcup aims to boost worker purchasing power by raising the federal minimum wage to approximately $15 per hour and indexing it to inflation. He also seeks tax and healthcare reforms that reduce the living expenses burdening working families.

  • Proposes raising the federal minimum wage quickly to approximately $15 per hour
  • Indexes the federal minimum wage to inflation to prevent loss of purchasing power
  • Supports structural cost-lowering measures across healthcare and tax policy

“I would vote to raise the federal minimum wage quickly to approximately $15 per hour and then index it to inflation so workers do not lose purchasing power.”

05

Government Accountability & Transparency

medium salience

Auchincloss focuses on election system changes like top-two primaries and federal voting standards, while Stalcup emphasizes data transparency in rule-making, campaign finance amendments, and term limits.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Supports election reform and transparency measures

Auchincloss supports electoral system reform, including ranked-choice voting and top-two primary initiatives in Massachusetts. He voted for national voting standards in the For the People Act and supported government transparency bills like the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

  • Endorsed Massachusetts Question 2 (2020 ranked-choice voting) and Question 3 (2026 top-two primary initiative)
  • Voted Yea on the For the People Act of 2021 to expand voter access and ethics laws
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act of 2025

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Promotes scientific transparency, term limits, campaign finance reform

Stalcup centers his campaign on 'Science Over Politics,' demanding full public disclosure of data behind federal policy decisions. He advocates for congressional term limits, overturning Citizens United, whistleblower protections, and transparency requirements for media algorithms.

  • Requires major federal policies to disclose underlying evidence, assumptions, and data
  • Supports constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United and establish congressional term limits
  • Advocates equal-opportunity standards for public airwave broadcasters and algorithm transparency for social media

“Science Over Politics: I would require major federal policies to disclose the evidence, assumptions, and data supporting them; strengthen protections for scientific whistleblowers; require independent review of high-impact agency findings; and make federally funded research and government data publicly accessible whenever national security and privacy permit.”

“I would also pursue aggressive oversight, subpoenas, and impeachment where warranted, and support constitutional amendments to overturn Citizens United and establish term limits for members of Congress.”

06

Environment & Energy

medium salience

Auchincloss supports federal legislative investments and economic subsidies for green energy, while Stalcup approaches climate policy through scientific monitoring standards and technology investments that avoid economic disruption.

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Supports green economic recovery and clean energy investments

Auchincloss champions clean energy investments and green economic development. He voted for major federal legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act to fund clean energy infrastructure and life sciences manufacturing.

  • Voted Yea on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 providing $369 billion for climate and energy security
  • Voted Yea on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act
  • Advocates building green economic growth around life sciences manufacturing and clean tech

“Finally, I will be a champion for jobs & a green economic recovery.”

Republican Thomas Stalcup

Supports evidence-based climate policy without economic disruption

As a physicist and environmental monitoring entrepreneur, Stalcup treats climate change as a proven scientific reality. He calls for data-driven, practical technological solutions that reverse environmental impact without destabilizing the economy.

  • Affirms human-induced climate change as measurable and supported by overwhelming scientific data
  • Advocates investing in environmental technologies that avoid economic instability
  • Demands high standards of scientific integrity and verifiable evidence in environmental policy decisions

“Human-induced climate change is real and measurable. This is not a matter of opinion—it is supported by overwhelming evidence.”

“We also need practical, results-driven solutions. That means investing in technologies that reverse environmental impact without undermining economic stability.”

07

Combatting Antisemitism

low salience

Democratic Jake Auchincloss

Demands condemnation of antisemitic rhetoric

Auchincloss actively speaks out against antisemitism, urging political leaders across party lines to explicitly reject anti-Jewish rhetoric and violence. He publicly condemned online commentators and political figures who promote hate directed at Jewish Americans.

  • Calls on all Democratic leaders to explicitly condemn antisemitic statements and rhetoric
  • Publicly condemned commentator Hasan Piker for rhetoric targeting Jewish Americans

“I rejected his rhetoric before his recent call to violence against an American Jew, and now I'll be even more direct: every Democrat needs to be condemning Hasan Piker's hate against Jews.”

Republican Thomas Stalcup No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MA-04 House Election Winner

97.3% Democrats
0.6% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 97.3REPUBLICANS 0.6

Kalshi ↗

MA-04 House winner?

97.5% Jake Auchincloss
4.1% Tom Stalcup
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 97.5AUCHINCLOSS 97.5PARTY 5.1STALCUP 4.1

Kalshi ↗

MA-04 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Jake Auchincloss
2.0% Jason Poulos
1.0% Chris Boyd
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16AUCHINCLOSS 99.0POULOS 2.0BOYD 1.0

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