Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Massachusetts Safe D

Massachusetts — 3rd District

The general election for Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District on November 3, 2026, features four-term Democratic incumbent Lori Trahan running against Republican challenger Gary Grossi and Unenrolled candidate Kevin Ades. Major nonpartisan rating outlets—including The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ—rate the contest as Solid or Safe Democratic. The district carried a D+11 Cook PVI and voted 58.4% for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election. The race hinges on economic affordability, healthcare administration, energy costs, public safety, and government accountability, with Trahan holding a dominant fundraising advantage over Grossi.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.8%
Republicans
1.9%
Kalshi ↗
Lori Trahan
97.5%
Gary Grossi
0.1%
Kalshi ↗
Lori Trahan
99.0%
Gaige Clark
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Grossi prioritizes cutting regulations on housing and energy to reduce costs immediately, whereas Trahan emphasizes federal infrastructure investments, climate funding, and targeted tax credits.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports infrastructure and middle-class tax relief

Trahan highlights jobs and the economy as a top platform priority. In Congress, she supported major federal investments including the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, the Inflation Reduction Act, and the bipartisan Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024. She voted against Republican deficit and spending reduction legislation, including the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and the 2025 budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 1).

  • Voted for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021
  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022
  • Voted for the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024
  • Voted against the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 and the 2025 budget reconciliation bill

Republican Gary Grossi

Opposes housing regulations and high costs

Grossi centers his platform on affordability, arguing that Massachusetts families face crushing cost increases. He advocates for eliminating housing regulations that restrict supply, lowering utility costs immediately, and creating Economic Opportunity Zones to encourage small business development.

  • Push for evidence-based energy solutions to lower family heating bills immediately
  • Stop unrealistic regulations that drive up housing costs and limit housing supply
  • Establish Economic Opportunity Zones for small business growth and job creation

“Massachusetts families are being squeezed by rising costs on every front. Gary will fight for practical, evidence-based solutions that deliver relief now -- not decades from now.”

02

Healthcare and Mental Health

high salience

Grossi focuses on streamlining administrative bureaucracy and curbing malpractice costs, while Trahan relies on federal intervention to negotiate drug prices and expand ACA coverage subsidies.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports Medicare drug negotiation and ACA subsidies

Trahan serves on the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health and considers healthcare a core legislative priority. She voted for the Inflation Reduction Act to allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and extend Affordable Care Act premium subsidies. She also focuses on addressing opioids and substance abuse treatment.

  • Serves on the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health
  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act to lower prescription drug prices via Medicare negotiations
  • Prioritizes federal funding for substance abuse and opioid addiction programs

Republican Gary Grossi

Favors streamlining bureaucracy and community-based care

Drawing on his career as a VA nurse, Grossi calls for streamlining healthcare bureaucracy and reducing malpractice costs to lower expenses. He advocates putting patients first and incentivizing community-based mental health and addiction services.

  • Streamline healthcare administration and reduce inflated malpractice expenses
  • Incentivize community-based mental health and addiction services
  • Redirect healthcare resources away from administrative overhead to direct patient care

“A bloated bureaucracy and inflated malpractice costs are siphoning precious health care dollars. Gary will fight to streamline the system and put patients first.”

03

Energy and Environment

medium salience

Trahan advocates for federal investments in clean energy and environmental protection, whereas Grossi focuses strictly on immediate reductions in home heating and utility bills.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports clean energy investments and conservation

Trahan lists Energy and the Environment as a platform priority, highlighting local conservation efforts like protecting the Merrimack River. In Congress, she voted for the Inflation Reduction Act's $369 billion clean energy and climate provisions and opposed the Republican-led Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 2023).

  • Voted for the Inflation Reduction Act providing $369 billion for climate and clean energy investments
  • Voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 2023)
  • Advocates for clean water infrastructure and protection of local resources like the Merrimack River

Republican Gary Grossi

Advocates immediate, evidence-based energy bill relief

Grossi emphasizes that high energy and heating bills are crushing local households. He pledges to push for practical, evidence-based energy policies that deliver immediate financial relief to families.

  • Push for evidence-based energy solutions to lower household utility bills immediately
  • Focus on immediate affordability for home heating costs

“Energy costs are crushing families. Gary will push for affordable, evidence-based energy solutions that lower your bills immediately.”

04

Government Reform and Ethics

medium salience

Both candidates endorse term limits, but Grossi emphasizes local-first governance and mandatory end-of-tour financial audits, while Trahan focuses on federal voting access reform and campaign finance disclosures.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports voting access reform and term limits

Trahan prioritizes election reform and campaign finance transparency, voting for the For the People Act of 2021 and signing the U.S. Term Limits Pledge in 2024. She voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act in 2025 while opposing the SAVE Act's documentary proof of citizenship requirements.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge in 2024
  • Voted for the For the People Act of 2021 to expand voter access and campaign finance disclosures
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (2025) and against the SAVE Act (2025)

Republican Gary Grossi

Supports term limits, audits, and local-first governance

Grossi calls for sweeping transparency and government accountability. He supports mandatory term limits paired with end-of-tour financial audits, eliminating government waste and fraud, and adopting a local-first priority order for public policy.

  • Support term limits with mandatory end-of-tour audits
  • Adopt local-first priorities for government spending and attention
  • Expose and eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse at all levels of government

“Support term limits with mandatory end-of-tour audits. No more career politicians enriching themselves in office.”

05

Gun Policy

medium salience

Trahan supports federal firearm regulations including assault weapons bans, whereas Grossi unreservedly opposes gun control measures based on Second Amendment protections.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports assault weapons ban and gun reform

Trahan lists Gun Reform as a primary policy priority on her platform. In the 117th Congress, she voted for the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 to restrict semiautomatic assault weapons and large-capacity ammunition feeding devices.

  • Voted for the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022
  • Lists Gun Reform as a core policy priority on her campaign platform

Republican Gary Grossi

Opposes gun restrictions and defends Second Amendment

Grossi pledges uncompromised support for the Second Amendment. He opposes any federal or state gun control legislation that restricts the constitutional right of law-abiding citizens to keep and bear arms.

  • Defend the Second Amendment without compromise
  • Protect the constitutional right of citizens to keep and bear arms

“The Second Amendment shall not be infringed. Gary will protect the constitutional right of every law-abiding citizen to keep and bear arms.”

06

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

medium salience

Grossi emphasizes community police partnerships and intact families to foster safety, while Trahan highlights first responder endorsements and voted against DUI-based deportation legislation.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supported by firefighters; voted against DUI deportation bill

Trahan is endorsed by the Professional Fire Fighters of Massachusetts. In Congress, she voted against the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025 (H.R. 875), which sought to make driving while impaired grounds for deporting noncitizens.

  • Endorsed by the Professional Fire Fighters of Massachusetts
  • Voted against the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025

Republican Gary Grossi

Supports police partnerships and intact families

Grossi approaches public safety by backing law enforcement partnerships, fostering intact families, and addressing the root causes of crime through community-based mental health and addiction services.

  • Support law enforcement with community partnerships to build trust
  • Foster intact families as a cornerstone of neighborhood safety
  • Address root causes of crime through mental health and addiction services

“Support law enforcement with community partnerships that build trust and improve public safety outcomes.”

07

Free Speech and Civil Rights

low salience

Grossi focuses on opposing censorship and protecting broad free speech rights, while Trahan focuses on LGBTQ+ civil rights and opposing restrictions on transgender student athletes.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports LGBTQ+ equality and inclusive athletic access

Trahan is endorsed by Trans Rights are Human Rights - Amplify Respect. In Congress, she voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28), which sought to restrict participation in female athletic programs based on biological sex.

  • Endorsed by Trans Rights are Human Rights - Amplify Respect
  • Voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025

Republican Gary Grossi

Opposes speech censorship and defends expression

Grossi frames free speech as fundamental to American democracy. He pledges to oppose any attempts by government or institutions to silence or censor lawful expression.

  • Oppose any attempt to silence or censor lawful expression
  • Defend freedom of speech as a core constitutional right

“The right to speak freely is the foundation of democracy. Gary will oppose any attempt to silence or censor lawful expression.”

08

Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Trahan explicitly champions abortion rights and reproductive healthcare access with Planned Parenthood's endorsement, while Grossi has no documented position in the sources.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports abortion access and reproductive freedom

Trahan makes Women's Rights & Opportunity a centerpiece of her campaign platform and earned the endorsement of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund. She strongly supports protecting access to reproductive healthcare and ensuring women have the freedom to make personal medical decisions.

  • Endorsed by the Planned Parenthood Action Fund
  • Prioritizes Women's Rights & Opportunity on her platform
  • Advocates for protecting personal healthcare freedom and abortion access

“I ran for Congress to fight for women and to ensure they have access to the care they need and the freedom to make their own personal healthcare decisions.”

Republican Gary Grossi No documented position in our sources
09

Immigration and Border Security

low salience

Trahan advocates for immigration reform and legal pathways while opposing conservative border security measures; Grossi has no documented position on immigration in the provided sources.

Democratic Lori Trahan

Supports legal pathways; opposes enforcement mandates

Trahan features Immigration Reform on her campaign website. She voted for the American Dream and Promise Act of 2021 to provide permanent legal status pathways for TPS and DED recipients, while voting against Republican enforcement bills including the Laken Riley Act, the Secure the Border Act of 2023, and H.R. 875.

  • Voted for the American Dream and Promise Act of 2021
  • Voted against the Laken Riley Act (2025)
  • Voted against the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)
  • Voted against the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025
Republican Gary Grossi No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MA-03 House Election Winner

95.8% Democrats
1.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.8REPUBLICANS 1.9

Kalshi ↗

MA-03 House winner?

97.5% Lori Trahan
0.1% Gary Grossi
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PARTY 97.5TRAHAN 97.5PARTY 0.1GROSSI 0.1

Kalshi ↗

MA-03 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Lori Trahan
1.0% Gaige Clark
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16TRAHAN 99.0CLARK 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.