Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Massachusetts Safe D

Massachusetts — 1st District

No Republican nominee

Also on the ballot Anthony Celata (Unenrolled) Nadia Milleron (Unenrolled)

In Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, incumbent Democrat Richard Neal faces unenrolled candidates in the 2026 general election after defeating a primary challenger on September 1, 2026. The race is rated Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic by all major political handicappers, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. With no major-party Republican nominee on the ballot, the general election hinges on Neal's long record in Congress, his leadership on the House Ways and Means Committee, and his platform focused on middle-class tax relief, protecting healthcare, and defending entitlement programs.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.0%
Republicans
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Richard Neal
97.5%
Republicans
1.9%
Kalshi ↗
Richard Neal
99.0%
Nathan Tracy
1.0%
Jeromie Whalen
1.0%
Jarret Dewberry
1.0%
Anthony Celata
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Taxation

high salience

Democratic Richard Neal

Supports middle-class tax cuts and opposing tariffs

Neal advocates for tax relief targeting middle-class families while opposing tax cuts for the wealthy and tariffs that increase consumer prices. He emphasizes leveraging federal investments in infrastructure to drive job creation and regional growth.

  • Opposes tax cuts for high earners enacted under Donald Trump
  • Supports middle-class tax cuts and ending tariffs that increase consumer prices
  • Promotes federal infrastructure funding to generate good-paying jobs

“Donald Trump gave billions in tax cuts to the very wealthy. That's why I'm taking on Trump, fighting for middle-class tax cuts, investing in our communities, ending the tariffs that raise your prices, and opposing reckless wars that threaten our security and our economy.”

No Republican nominee
02

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Richard Neal

Protects affordable healthcare and prescription price caps

Neal opposes Republican budget measures that reduce federal healthcare spending and advocates for lowering out-of-pocket prescription costs. He focuses on protecting Medicare and expanding access to affordable care for working families.

  • Fights Republican budget proposals that slash healthcare funding
  • Focuses on reducing prescription drug costs and preserving Medicare benefits
  • Supports expanding affordable and accessible healthcare coverage

“fighting back against Donald Trump and Republicans’ reckless budget that slashes healthcare for working families to give tax breaks to the wealthy and add trillions to the deficit.”

No Republican nominee
03

Foreign Policy and War Powers

medium salience

Democratic Richard Neal

Asserts congressional authority over military conflict

Neal emphasizes the constitutional authority of Congress to declare war and advocates for exhausting diplomatic solutions before pursuing military action. He opposes costly foreign engagements that place financial strains on working families.

  • Voted for war powers measures to reassert congressional oversight over declarations of war
  • Calls for exhausting all diplomatic options before engaging in military conflict
  • Opposes costly foreign wars that disrupt economic stability

“After billions of dollars were spent and thirteen service members tragically lost their lives, the House reminded the President and the nation who the power to declare war rests with, and that is with Congress.”

No Republican nominee
04

Social Security and Retirement

medium salience

Democratic Richard Neal

Protects Social Security and Medicare benefits

Neal prioritizes safeguarding Social Security and Medicare from spending cuts or structural alterations. He frames entitlement programs as essential promises to seniors and working families.

  • Opposes reductions or structural changes to Social Security and Medicare benefits
  • Fights to protect long-term retirement security for working families

“I’ve fought tirelessly for policies that make a difference for hard-working families and future generations: fairer taxes, affordable and accessible healthcare, taking on climate change, preserving Social Security, and more.”

No Republican nominee
05

Climate Change and Environment

medium salience

Democratic Richard Neal

Supports federal climate change investments

Neal supports federal legislation aimed at reducing carbon emissions and funding clean energy initiatives. He highlights major federal investments delivered to address environmental challenges and build green infrastructure.

  • Supported landmark federal legislation to address climate change
  • Promotes investments in clean energy infrastructure and job creation

“Working with [Former] President Biden, we’ve made historic progress by delivering generational investments in our infrastructure, passing the largest legislation ever to tackle climate change, addressing racial injustice and creating tens of thousands of good-paying jobs.”

No Republican nominee

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

MA-01 House Election Winner

95.0% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.0REPUBLICANS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

MA-01 House winner?

97.5% Richard Neal
1.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16PARTY 97.5NEAL 97.5REPUBLICANS 1.9

Kalshi ↗

MA-01 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Richard Neal
1.0% Nathan Tracy
1.0% Jeromie Whalen

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16NEAL 99.0TRACY 1.0WHALEN 1.0CELATA 1.0DEWBERRY 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.