Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Kentucky Safe R

Kentucky — 5th District

NP

Democrat

Ned Pillersdorf

Portrait of Hal Rogers

Republican

Hal Rogers

Incumbent

Kentucky's 5th Congressional District 2026 general election features 23-term Republican incumbent Hal Rogers facing Democratic nominee Ned Pillersdorf, a long-time legal aid attorney. The race hinges on opposing economic visions for Eastern Kentucky: Rogers highlights his senior role on the House Appropriations Committee and his support for Donald Trump's conservative agenda, while Pillersdorf focuses his campaign on resisting Republican cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and safety net programs. Major election handicappers, including The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate the district as Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.0%
Democrats
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Hal Rogers
97.7%
Ned Pillersdorf
4.5%

All markets →

01

Social Safety Net & Federal Spending

high salience

Pillersdorf strongly opposes proposed cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and food assistance, while Rogers voted for federal reconciliation legislation and expanded work requirements for welfare programs.

Democratic Ned Pillersdorf

Opposes federal safety net cuts

Pillersdorf bases his campaign on protecting low-income Appalachian residents from federal funding cuts. He strongly criticizes proposals to reduce funding for safety net programs to finance tax cuts for higher earners.

  • Opposes reductions to Medicaid, Medicare, SNAP (food stamps), and low-income utility assistance.
  • Opposes defunding public television, public radio, Job Corps, and cancer research.
  • Denounces Rogers' vote for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) as detrimental to the district.

“To be clear, if you support the ongoing proposed slashing of: Medicaid, Medicare, food stamps, funds to help low income folks pay their utilities, and the defunding of public television, public radio, job corp, cancer research, etc – all so the billionaire class can get a deficit busting tax break – I don’t expect to persuade you to support my candidacy.”

“Rogers is enthusiastically supporting the unprecedented assault on our safety net- taking us ten steps back, over the cliff. His deciding vote for the Big Beautiful Bill is a shameful betrayal of the needs of our district.”

Republican Hal Rogers

Supports conservative fiscal reconciliation bills

Rogers leverages his position on the House Appropriations Committee to direct federal investments to Eastern Kentucky while supporting major Republican spending restriction bills. He voted for federal reconciliation measures that adjust funding for federal programs and enforce work requirements.

  • Voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1 reconciliation bill in 2025).
  • Voted Yea on the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023, expanding work requirements for SNAP and TANF.
  • Voted Yea on the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 capping non-defense discretionary spending.

“I’m honored to have the loyal confidence of Southern and Eastern Kentuckians to continue the fight for conservative values on Capitol Hill, securing their seat at the House Appropriations table...”

02

Taxation & Economy

medium salience

Pillersdorf opposes tax cuts that benefit high earners at the expense of social programs, whereas Rogers signed a pledge against tax increases and supports tax simplification that rewards economic success.

Democratic Ned Pillersdorf

Opposes tax cuts for billionaires

Pillersdorf opposes tax policy changes that lower tax liabilities for corporations and high earners, arguing that such cuts increase the federal debt and endanger vital social programs.

  • Opposes deficit-busting tax breaks for the wealthy class.
  • Advocates prioritizing economic support for impoverished and working-class families in Appalachia.

“...all so the billionaire class can get a deficit busting tax break – I don’t expect to persuade you to support my candidacy.”

Republican Hal Rogers

Supports tax simplification and growth

Rogers supports reforming the U.S. tax code to make it simpler and fairer without penalizing financial success. He has signed formal commitments against raising taxes.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge with Americans for Tax Reform.
  • Voted for tax policy provisions in H.R. 1 (2025).
  • Supports simplifying the tax code while maintaining incentives for hard work and innovation.

“There is no question that our current tax system is incredibly complicated and in need of simplification. I support efforts to reform our tax code so that it is easier to understand and comply with the law. At the same time, I believe any reform of the tax code must be fair and should not punish success achieved through hard work and innovation.”

03

Voting Rights & Election Administration

medium salience

Pillersdorf supports structural representation reform via uncapping the House, while Rogers voted for strict federal voter proof-of-citizenship requirements and objected to 2020 election certification.

Democratic Ned Pillersdorf

Supports uncapping the House

Pillersdorf advocates institutional reform of Congress by supporting the expansion of the House of Representatives to increase legislative representation.

  • Supports Uncapping the House to increase legislative seats and grassroots representation.

“I support Uncapping the House.”

Republican Hal Rogers

Supports voter ID and challenged certification

Rogers supports strict voter verification laws for federal elections and voted to object to the certification of the 2020 presidential election results in key states.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.
  • Voted against certifying the 2020 electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6-7, 2021.
04

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience
Democratic Ned Pillersdorf No documented position in our sources

Republican Hal Rogers

Supports strict border enforcement legislation

Rogers consistently votes for conservative immigration enforcement measures, including expanded detention mandates, mandatory employment eligibility verification, and state authority to enforce federal law.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft crimes.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making driving under the influence grounds for deportation.
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2).
05

Energy & Environment

medium salience
Democratic Ned Pillersdorf No documented position in our sources

Republican Hal Rogers

Supports domestic fossil fuel expansion

Rogers advocates boosting domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production to achieve American energy independence and strengthen the local Eastern Kentucky economy.

  • Voted Yea on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 118th Congress) to expand fossil fuel production and streamline permitting.
  • Voted Yea to repeal certain green energy tax credits in the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
  • Supports President Trump's energy agenda to foster local job growth.

“...executing President Trump’s America First agenda to create more jobs here at home and strengthen our energy independence...”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

KY-05 House Election Winner

95.0% Republicans
4.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.0DEMOCRATS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

KY-05 House winner?

97.7% Hal Rogers
4.5% Ned Pillersdorf
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16ROGERS 97.7PILLERSDORF 4.5

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.