Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Illinois Safe D

Illinois — 5th District

Portrait of Mike Quigley

Democrat

Mike Quigley

Incumbent

Incumbent Democrat Mike Quigley faces Republican challenger Tom Hanson in the general election for Illinois' 5th Congressional District on November 3, 2026, following primary victories on March 17, 2026. Major nonpartisan race raters including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill evaluate the seat as Solid/Safe Democratic. Quigley, who has represented the district since 2009, emphasizes his senior committee assignments, government reform, infrastructure investments, and progressive voting record. Hanson, a self-employed commercial real estate professional making another challenge for the seat, campaigns on reducing federal spending, lowering taxes, backing law enforcement to curb Chicago crime, and securing the border.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.0%
Republicans
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Mike Quigley
96.7%
Tom Hanson
3.0%

All markets →

01

Economy, taxes, and federal spending

high salience

Hanson advocates replacing individual income taxes with corporate taxes and halting money printing to curb inflation, whereas Quigley favors targeted bipartisan deficit reduction, eliminating corporate tax loopholes, and investing federal funds in infrastructure.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports balanced budgets and infrastructure investments

Quigley advocates long-term bipartisan budgets aimed at reducing federal deficits without cutting core social safety nets. He supports targeted tax reform to close loopholes, federal infrastructure funding for job creation, and regulatory frameworks for emerging financial tools like stablecoins.

  • Authored reports outlining 60 recommendations to save $2 trillion over ten years through government efficiency
  • Voted against the 2025 Republican budget reconciliation bill (H.R. 1), Limit Save Grow Act, and full-year continuing resolutions, while supporting the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023
  • Voted in favor of the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) to establish a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins
  • Champions long-term transportation and infrastructure funding as a member of the House Appropriations Committee

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports tax reform and federal spending limits

Hanson argues out-of-control federal spending and money printing cause high inflation and national debt over $30 trillion. He proposes replacing individual income taxes with corporate taxes, enacting a Fair Tax and sensible tariffs, and eliminating taxes on food and gasoline.

  • Proposes replacing individual income tax with corporate taxes, implementing tariffs, and passing a Fair Tax
  • Calls on Congress to stop printing money to halt inflation and invoke the Tenth Amendment to restrict federal spending
  • Proposes eliminating taxes on food and gasoline, lowering real estate taxes, and making credit card interest and tuition tax-deductible
  • Suggests using federal marijuana product tax revenues to fund local road repairs and pothole filling

“When I was raised in the north Chicago suburbs, my parents lived within our means. We did not spend what we did not have and we certainly did not take from others to give to someone else. That is what our current government is doing and I will proudly stand with the 5th District to stop runaway federal government spending!”

“stop printing money. Too much money coupled with too little supply = inflation.”

02

Crime and public safety

high salience

Hanson emphasizes mandatory detention for violent criminals, ending bail reductions, and fully backing law enforcement, while Quigley prioritizes strict gun control laws, domestic violence programs, and criminal justice reform.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports gun control and crime victim protections

Quigley advocates comprehensive gun violence prevention legislation, including universal background checks and assault weapon bans. His record includes funding domestic violence prevention resources and supporting criminal justice reform while opposing federal immigration-related criminal penalties.

  • Co-sponsored federal legislation to mandate universal background checks, ban assault weapons, and outlaw gun trafficking
  • Supported the reauthorization of the Violence Against Women Act and spearheaded the construction of the Cook County Domestic Violence Courthouse
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation legislation in the 119th Congress

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports strict prosecution and law enforcement backing

Hanson attributes Chicago's economic struggles and vacant commercial real estate to high crime rates. He advocates mandatory maximum detention for violent offenders, eliminating bail reductions or early release, and increasing support for law enforcement.

  • Proposes prosecuting violent criminals with mandatory detention, opposing early release and bail reductions
  • Pledges full backing for law enforcement and first responders to improve retention and street experience
  • Works with community groups, schools, and churches to increase high school graduation rates and keep youth out of crime
03

Immigration and border security

high salience

Hanson advocates strict border security and limiting ICE operations to states that request them, whereas Quigley supports comprehensive reform with pathways to citizenship and protections for undocumented immigrants.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports comprehensive reform and immigrant protections

Quigley favors comprehensive immigration reform providing an earned pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents. He supports legal protections for DACA and DAPA recipients, opposes mandatory enforcement mandates, and has advocated for Poland's inclusion in the Visa Waiver Program.

  • Co-sponsored the Comprehensive Immigration Reform for America's Security and Prosperity Act
  • Supports DACA and DAPA programs offering legal status and educational/military pathways to undocumented youth and parents
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act, Laken Riley Act, and Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act of 2025

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports border security and state-led ICE deployment

Hanson supports legal immigration but argues open borders and illegal immigration burden taxpayers and enable illegal narcotics like fentanyl to enter the country. He proposes securing the southern border and limiting ICE operations to states that explicitly request federal assistance.

  • Calls for securing the southern border to prevent drug trafficking and fentanyl deaths
  • Proposes that ICE only operate in states that request their enforcement services to reduce unnecessary federal spending
  • Advocates legislation protecting local communities against the financial costs of illegal immigration

“We must secure our border to preserve, protect and defend our country against all enemies, foreign and domestic.”

04

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Hanson opposes abortion and identifies as pro-life, while Quigley advocates codifying federal abortion rights and repealing the Hyde Amendment.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports federal reproductive freedom and abortion access

Quigley is a staunch supporter of abortion access and reproductive healthcare freedom. He supports repealing the Hyde Amendment to permit federal funding for reproductive care and opposes federal restrictions on abortion.

  • Supports the full repeal of the Hyde Amendment
  • Opposed anti-abortion restrictions during the drafting and passage of the Affordable Care Act
  • Maintains endorsement from reproductive rights organizations such as Planned Parenthood

Republican Tom Hanson

Opposes abortion and supports pro-life policies

Hanson states that he is pro-life and considers protecting the family unit a core priority for societal wellbeing and economic growth.

  • Identifies as pro-life on his campaign website issue platform
  • Frames protection of human life and families as essential to societal success

“I am pro-life and believe that every person deserves the opportunity to pursue life, liberty and happiness.”

05

Government reform, ethics, and transparency

medium salience

Hanson seeks to limit federal authority through Tenth Amendment enforcement, while Quigley focuses on legislative transparency, earmark bans, and ethics oversight.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports government transparency and ethical oversight

Quigley co-chairs the House Transparency Caucus and has sponsored multiple good-governance measures banning earmarks and expanding public access to government records. In 2024, he publicly called on President Joe Biden to withdraw from the presidential race to protect the party's legacy.

  • Introduced legislation banning corporate earmarks and authored the Transparency in Government Act
  • Co-chairs the House Transparency Caucus to mandate searchable online access to public agency reports
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405)
  • Publicly urged President Joe Biden to step aside as the 2024 Democratic nominee following the June 2024 debate

“Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants”

“Mr. President, your legacy is set. We owe you the greatest debt of gratitude. The only thing that you can do now to cement that for all time and prevent utter catastrophe is to step down and let someone else do this.”

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports strict Tenth Amendment constitutional boundaries

Hanson advocates returning federal operations to strict Tenth Amendment limits, arguing that federal agencies have expanded far past their constitutional authorization and bankrupted the nation.

  • Invokes the Tenth Amendment to curtail unmandated federal programs and spending
  • Supports returning indefinite power to state and local governments while keeping federal scope 'few and defined'
06

Environment and energy

medium salience

Hanson focuses on lowering consumer energy costs by eliminating gas taxes, whereas Quigley advocates green building standards, Great Lakes conservation, and opposing fossil fuel deregulation.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports green infrastructure and environmental protection

Quigley, a lifelong Sierra Club member, focuses on green building standards, Great Lakes restoration, and climate change mitigation. He opposes deregulation of fossil fuel industries and federal restrictions on ESG investment considerations.

  • Introduced the Federal Birdsafe Buildings Act and sponsored green building ordinances in Cook County
  • Worked with the Great Lakes Task Force to secure federal cleanup funds and prevent Asian Carp migration
  • Voted Nay on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 118th Congress) and ESG investment disapproval resolutions

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports consumer energy tax relief

Hanson focuses his energy platform on immediate consumer relief, proposing the elimination of gasoline taxes and lower utility bills to combat rising living costs.

  • Proposes eliminating gasoline taxes for consumers
  • Advocates policies aimed at lowering monthly electricity bill costs
07

Healthcare

medium salience

Hanson favors free-market competition to lower insurance costs, while Quigley supports defending and expanding the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports Affordable Care Act and public entitlement programs

Quigley supports preserving and expanding the Affordable Care Act while opposing efforts to privatize Medicare or reduce Medicaid funding. He advocates allowing Medicare prescription drug price negotiation and increasing NIH research grants.

  • Voted for the Affordable Care Act and opposes Medicare privatization or Medicaid spending cuts
  • Co-sponsored legislation allowing prescription drug price negotiations in Medicare
  • Fought for increased NIH medical research funding and streamlined FDA drug approvals as an appropriator

Republican Tom Hanson

Supports free-market healthcare competition and cost reduction

Hanson advocates market-driven healthcare reforms aimed at lowering insurance premiums, ending price increases, and fostering insurance carrier competition.

  • Proposes increasing competition among health insurance providers to reduce premiums
  • Calls for halting rising healthcare and insurance costs through free-market solutions
08

Civil rights and LGBTQ+ equality

low salience

Hanson describes himself as socially liberal while prioritizing family unit structures, whereas Quigley actively sponsors LGBTQ+ equality legislation and co-chairs the equality caucus.

Democratic Mike Quigley

Supports full LGBTQ+ legal equality

Quigley serves as Vice Chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus and has consistently voted for LGBTQ+ rights. He supported repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell,' opposed DOMA, and opposes restrictions on transgender participation in sports.

  • Serves as Vice Chair of the Congressional LGBT Equality Caucus
  • Supported repealing 'Don't Ask, Don't Tell' and opposed the Defense of Marriage Act
  • Pushes the FDA to end blood donation restrictions on men who have sex with men
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025

Republican Tom Hanson

Identifies as socially liberal and family-focused

Hanson self-describes as a 'Liberal Republican' who is socially liberal and fiscally conservative, while asserting that strong families are the foundational element of society.

  • Describes his political philosophy as 'fiscally conservative/socially liberal'
  • Emphasizes strong family structures as essential to raising productive citizens

“Liberal Republican – fiscally conservative/socially liberal”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

IL-05 House Election Winner

95.0% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.0REPUBLICANS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

IL-05 House winner?

96.7% Mike Quigley
3.0% Tom Hanson
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16QUIGLEY 96.7HANSON 3.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.