Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Iowa Toss-up

Iowa — 3rd District

Portrait of Sarah Trone Garriott

Democrat

Sarah Trone Garriott

Incumbent Republican Zach Nunn faces Democratic State Senator Sarah Trone Garriott in Iowa's 3rd Congressional District general election on November 3, 2026. The district has been highly competitive, having not been held by an incumbent for more than two terms since 2010; Nunn won election in 2022 and re-election in 2024 by narrow margins. Major election forecasters rate the race as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic, making it a critical battleground that could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
73.5%
Republicans
25.5%
Kalshi ↗
Sarah Trone Garriott
75.0%
Zach Nunn
28.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of Living and Economy

high salience

Trone Garriott focuses on middle-class tax credits, ending tariffs, and curbing corporate price gouging, whereas Nunn emphasizes reining in federal spending and reducing business taxes and regulations.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Lower middle-class costs and stop price gouging

Trone Garriott blames inflation on corporate price gouging and reckless tariff policies that raise prices for ordinary families. She advocates expanding the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, eliminating junk fees, and investing in apprenticeships, infrastructure, and job training.

  • Expand the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit to put money back in working families' pockets.
  • Crack down on corporate price gouging, junk fees, and wage theft.
  • End reckless tariff policies that raise consumer prices and harm Iowa's economy.

“This includes cracking down on corporate price gouging and ending the reckless tariff policy that is raising prices on ordinary families and wreaking havoc on Iowa’s economy.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Rein in federal spending and lower taxes

Nunn attributes high inflation to out-of-control federal spending and government bureaucracy. He advocates stopping tax-and-spend policies and providing tax relief for small businesses to revitalize the economy.

  • Reins in government bureaucracy and stops tax-and-spend policies to control inflation.
  • Promotes tax relief and reduced regulatory burdens for small businesses, earning an endorsement from the NFIB.
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing to oppose tax increases.

“Out-of-control government spending has caused inflation to skyrocket, impacting every Iowa family’s ability to balance their checkbook.”

02

Healthcare and Senior Care

high salience

Trone Garriott supports expanding ACA subsidies, Medicare negotiation, and Medicaid funding, while Nunn focuses on entitlement sustainability and voting for House budget reconciliation measures.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Expand ACA, Medicare, and rural health access

Trone Garriott advocates lowering health costs by letting Medicare negotiate drug prices and extending ACA tax credits. She strongly opposes cuts to Medicaid, Social Security, and Medicare, pointing out that funding reductions threaten rural clinics and hospitals.

  • Allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices and extend ACA tax credits.
  • Roll back Medicaid cuts that threaten rural health clinics and hospital operations.
  • Expand mental health and substance use treatment options.

“To make healthcare accessible and affordable, we need to roll back the massive Medicaid cuts Zach Nunn voted for this year, which will cause 86,000 Iowans to lose their health insurance, and close rural hospitals and clinics.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Protect seniors and support fiscal restraint

Nunn emphasizes protecting seniors and disabled citizens while supporting fiscal responsibility in federal health spending. In Congress, he voted for key budget reconciliation measures and continuing funding resolutions.

  • Protect Social Security, Medicare, and vulnerable senior citizens.
  • Voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1) reconciliation bill.
  • Supported continuing appropriations bills maintaining federal health program funding.

“As a faith-oriented man, Zach will always stand with Iowa’s most vulnerable – that means protecting our seniors, our disabled, and our unborn.”

03

Reproductive Rights and Abortion

high salience

Trone Garriott advocates for federal legislation protecting abortion rights, IVF, and contraception, whereas Nunn identifies as a pro-life leader opposing abortion on demand.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Restore nationwide legal abortion access

Trone Garriott views reproductive freedom as personal and non-negotiable. She pledges to restore federal protections for abortion access and safeguard the right to contraception, IVF, and prenatal care.

  • Restore nationwide protections for abortion access.
  • Safeguard rights to contraception, IVF, and prenatal healthcare.
  • Oppose state and federal politician interference in personal medical decisions.

“In Congress, I’ll work to restore nationwide protections for abortion access and safeguard the right to contraception, IVF, and prenatal care.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Restrict abortion and protect the unborn

Nunn is a recognized pro-life leader committed to protecting the unborn and opposing abortion on demand. He also advocates simplifying the adoption process and expanding parental options for families.

  • Oppose abortion on demand and protect the unborn.
  • Simplify adoption processes to help children find homes.
  • Passed legislation expanding paid parental leave for military families.

“He is a recognized pro-life leader, committed to fighting for the unborn.”

04

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Trone Garriott pairs border security with legal pathways for Dreamers, while Nunn supports strict enforcement legislation, mandatory detention, and voter citizenship verification.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Enact comprehensive reform and border security

Trone Garriott supports comprehensive immigration reform that combines border security with streamlined legal pathways and protections for Dreamers. She also emphasizes ICE accountability and targeted efforts against drug smuggling and human trafficking.

  • Secure the border and invest in preventing drug smuggling and human trafficking.
  • Streamline legal immigration pathways and protect Dreamers.
  • Ensure ICE follows the law and remains accountable to local communities.

“In Congress, I’ll push for comprehensive immigration reform that fixes our broken system: secures the border, streamlines legal pathways, protects Dreamers, and invests in preventing human trafficking and drug smuggling.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Enforce strict border security and deportation laws

Nunn prioritizes securing the Southern Border to combat drug flow, human trafficking, and unlawful entry. In Congress, he voted for major border enforcement measures including the SAVE Act, Laken Riley Act, and Secure the Border Act.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) and Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2).
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voting.
  • Supported making DUI offenses grounds for deportation of undocumented immigrants.

“As your representative, he helped pass the most comprehensive border security solution – ensuring that we’re combatting the flow of illegal drugs, human trafficking, and exploitation coming across our Southern Border.”

05

Education and School Policy

medium salience

Trone Garriott focuses on funding public schools and opposing private school vouchers, whereas Nunn focuses on parental rights and restricting biological males from female school sports.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Fund public schools and oppose vouchers

Trone Garriott champions public education funding, higher teacher pay, and expanded pre-K programs. She strongly opposes private school vouchers and book bans, warning that vouchers divert critical taxpayer dollars from rural public schools.

  • Protect federal funding flowing to public school classrooms.
  • Raise teacher salaries and expand early childhood pre-K education.
  • Oppose private school vouchers and book bans.

“In Congress, I’ll work to protect the Department of Education and the hundreds of millions of federal dollars that flow to Iowa classrooms each year.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Promote parental choice and restrict biological males in girls' sports

Nunn emphasizes empowering parents in education and protecting school athletic integrity. In Congress, he voted for legislation to prevent biological males from competing in female school sports.

  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
  • Promote early literacy programs and expanded parental involvement in education.
  • Highlight opponent's legislative votes regarding biological males in female sports in campaign ads.

“Stand Up For Us features an Iowa athlete in her own words on Trone Garriott’s votes to allow boys in girls’ sports”

06

Agriculture and Renewable Energy

medium salience

Trone Garriott combines biofuel support with broader investments in wind, solar, and water conservation, while Nunn emphasizes Farm Bill priorities and ethanol production.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Invest in clean energy and voluntary farm conservation

Trone Garriott advocates for clean energy investments in wind, solar, and biofuels to create Iowa jobs. She supports voluntary, sustainable farming practices to protect soil health and water quality.

  • Support investments in wind, solar, and biofuel production.
  • Partner with farmers on voluntary soil conservation and water protection practices.
  • Protect public lands and natural resources.

“In Congress, I’ll support investments in clean energy like wind, solar, and biofuels—which already power thousands of Iowa jobs—and I’ll work with farmers to promote sustainable practices that keep our soil healthy and our water safe.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Support Farm Bill legislation and biofuel production

Nunn serves on the House Agriculture Committee and focuses on passing a robust Farm Bill to support Iowa producers. He strongly champions biofuels and ethanol to drive energy independence.

  • Pass a Farm Bill that supports Iowa farmers and rural communities.
  • Promote renewable fuels like ethanol to achieve national energy independence.
  • Protect rural communities from federal regulatory overreach.

“Zach fights in DC for a Farm Bill to ensure Iowa’s farmers and rural communities have support they need to continue to drive Iowa’s economy.”

07

Government Ethics and Reform

medium salience

Trone Garriott advocates banning corporate PACs and insider stock trading, while Nunn highlights signing term limit pledges and supporting federal transparency bills.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Ban insider stock trading and corporate PACs

Trone Garriott champions strict congressional ethics reform to prevent politicians from enriching themselves. She has authored state legislation to ban insider stock trading and impose term limits, and pledges to ban corporate PAC contributions.

  • Ban insider stock trading for members of Congress.
  • Enact congressional term limits.
  • Ban corporate PAC contributions and mandate campaign transparency.

“I’ve authored legislation in Iowa to ban insider stock trading and impose term limits—because public service shouldn’t be a pathway to personal enrichment.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Promote transparency and term limits

Nunn emphasizes government transparency, fighting fraud, and reining in federal bureaucracy. He signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge and voted for federal disclosure legislation in Congress.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge.
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).
  • Promotes government accountability and bipartisan anti-corruption efforts.

“working across the aisle, fighting to lower costs, taking on fraud and corruption, and delivering results for families.”

08

Labor and Workplace Rights

medium salience

Trone Garriott strongly backs organized labor and the PRO Act, whereas Nunn aligns with small business organizations like the NFIB.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Protect union rights and enforce prevailing wages

Trone Garriott holds a 100% lifetime voting record with the Iowa Federation of Labor. She advocates passing the PRO Act to protect collective bargaining rights and enforcing Davis-Bacon prevailing wage standards on federal projects.

  • Pass the PRO Act to strengthen union organizing and collective bargaining rights.
  • Enforce Davis-Bacon prevailing wage laws on infrastructure projects.
  • Combat wage theft and predatory workplace practices.

“As the only candidate in this race with a 100% lifetime voting record with the Iowa Federation of Labor, I will always stand with working people and the labor movement.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Support small businesses and workplace flexibility

Nunn focuses on economic growth driven by small business success and parental leave flexibility. He earned the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

  • Endorsed by the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).
  • Authored legislation expanding military parental leave.
  • Focuses on tax cuts and reducing regulations on employers.

“The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), the nation’s leading small business advocacy organization and the voice of …”

09

Veterans and National Defense

low salience

Trone Garriott focuses on VA healthcare expansion and rural veteran support, while Nunn highlights his 20-year military combat background and defense funding votes.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Expand rural VA services and veteran support

Trone Garriott emphasizes improving healthcare and VA service access for veterans, particularly in rural areas. She supports expanding veteran housing, job training, and mental health crisis response.

  • Expand rural VA healthcare access and reduce appointment wait times.
  • Increase funding for veteran suicide prevention and mental health response.
  • Support housing, job training, and educational resources for veterans.

“In Congress, I’ll work to expand access to VA services—especially in rural areas—and ensure our vets can access housing, education, and job training without jumping through hoops.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Strengthen defense and support military families

As a 20-year Air Force combat veteran and colonel in the Air Force Reserve, Nunn prioritizes robust defense funding and military family support. He passed legislation expanding military parental leave and voted for national defense authorization acts.

  • Voted for National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA).
  • Passed legislation expanding paid parental leave for military parents.
  • Prioritize military readiness, veterans' healthcare, and mental health funding.

“As a 20 year combat veteran, Zach knows the importance of a strong military when it comes to defending our country, protecting democracy, and promoting peace.”

10

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

low salience

Trone Garriott combines police funding with mental health response teams and gun safety reforms, whereas Nunn focuses on backing law enforcement and defending gun rights.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Fund law enforcement and crime prevention

Trone Garriott supports police funding alongside crime prevention strategies. She advocates for victim services, community mental health response teams, and sensible gun safety laws to close illegal weapon loopholes.

  • Provide funding and resources for local law enforcement and first responders.
  • Invest in community-based mental health emergency response teams.
  • Close legal loopholes to prevent illegal weapons on streets.

“That’s why I’ll support investing in what local law enforcement needs, more victim services, and community-based mental health response teams.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Back law enforcement and protect gun rights

Nunn strongly supports law enforcement officers and opposes efforts to restrict police funding. He pledges to protect Second Amendment gun rights against federal government restrictions.

  • Support police officers and first responders ("Back the Blue").
  • Defend Second Amendment gun rights against federal restrictions.
  • Voted for the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act.

“Zach put his life on the line to protect our First and Second Amendment Rights – he’s a firm believer in the right to free speech and the right to bear arms.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

IA-03 House Election Winner

73.5% Democrats
25.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 73.5REPUBLICANS 25.5

Kalshi ↗

IA-03 House winner?

75.0% Sarah Trone Garriott
28.0% Zach Nunn
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GARRIOTT 75.0NUNN 28.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.