Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Iowa Toss-up

Iowa’s 3rd District race

Portrait of Sarah Trone Garriott

Democrat

Sarah Trone Garriott

The general election for Iowa's 3rd Congressional District features Republican incumbent Zach Nunn facing Democratic challenger Sarah Trone Garriott in a highly competitive battleground. The election hinges on economic relief and inflation, abortion rights, federal spending, healthcare access, and agricultural policy in a district Donald Trump won narrowly in 2024.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
85.0%
Republicans
14.0%
Kalshi ↗
Sarah Trone Garriott
85.0%
Zach Nunn
16.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living

high salience

Trone Garriott focuses on targeted relief through tax credits, raising wages, and regulating corporate price gouging, whereas Nunn emphasizes cutting federal spending and reining in government regulation to curb inflation.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Lowering costs and supporting workers

Trone Garriott advocates for lowering everyday costs by addressing corporate price gouging, ending reckless tariffs, and expanding tax credits like the Child Tax Credit and EITC. She supports raising wages and investing in workforce development programs to help families keep pace with expenses.

  • Crack down on corporate price gouging and eliminate junk fees and surprise medical bills.
  • End tariff policies that increase consumer prices and harm Iowa's economy.
  • Expand the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit to put money back in families' pockets.
  • Invest in apprenticeships, community colleges, vocational schools, and rural broadband.

“That’s why I’m committed to lowering costs in real, meaningful ways.”

“In Congress, I’ll fight to raise wages and support local small businesses—not by writing blank checks, but by investing in apprenticeships, vocational schools, community colleges, and job training programs that prepare Iowans for high-skill, high-wage work.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Reining in spending and bureaucracy

Nunn attributes high inflation and cost-of-living challenges to out-of-control federal spending and government bureaucracy. He advocates curbing government expansion, stopping tax-and-spend policies, and helping Americans return to work.

  • Passed legislation to rein in federal bureaucracy and reduce regulatory burdens on the economy.
  • Opposes tax-and-spend policies driving federal debt and inflation.
  • Advocates reining in government spending to lower costs for working families.

“Out-of-control government spending has caused inflation to skyrocket, impacting every Iowa family’s ability to balance their checkbook.”

“We must stop the tax-and-spend policies that have driven us to record cost levels and help get Americans back to work”

02

Abortion

high salience

Trone Garriott seeks to codify nationwide protections for abortion, IVF, and contraception, while Nunn supports pro-life policies to protect the unborn and opposes abortion on demand.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Restore federal abortion protections

Trone Garriott views reproductive health as a personal medical choice that should remain free from political interference. She advocates restoring nationwide protections for abortion access and safeguarding rights to contraception, IVF, and prenatal care.

  • Restore nationwide federal abortion access protections.
  • Protect statutory access to contraception, IVF, and prenatal care.
  • Oppose state and federal abortion bans that penalize patients and healthcare providers.

“In Congress, I’ll work to restore nationwide protections for abortion access and safeguard the right to contraception, IVF, and prenatal care.”

“The right to make deeply personal, private reproductive health care decisions should belong to the Iowans themselves—not politicians.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Protect the unborn

Nunn is a self-described pro-life leader who opposes abortion on demand and advocates for the rights of the unborn. He also highlights efforts to streamline adoption processes to support families.

  • Opposes federal abortion on demand.
  • Advocates for pro-life policies protecting unborn children.
  • Pushes to simplify federal adoption procedures to help children find homes.

“He is a recognized pro-life leader, committed to fighting for the unborn.”

“As a faith-oriented man, Zach will always stand with Iowa’s most vulnerable – that means protecting our seniors, our disabled, and our unborn.”

03

Healthcare

medium salience

Trone Garriott advocates expanding ACA subsidies, negotiating Medicare drug costs, and reversing Medicaid cuts, whereas Nunn's documented healthcare focus centers on veteran mental health and protecting existing promises for seniors.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Expand access and lower costs

Trone Garriott prioritizes making healthcare accessible in rural areas by rolling back Medicaid cuts, extending ACA tax credits, and empowering Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices. She also supports expanding mental health and substance abuse treatment.

  • Roll back Medicaid cuts that threaten rural hospital closures and insurance losses.
  • Extend ACA tax credits to keep health insurance affordable for working families.
  • Allow Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.
  • Expand mental health and substance abuse treatment, supporting rural healthcare providers.

“To make healthcare accessible and affordable, we need to roll back the massive Medicaid cuts Zach Nunn voted for this year, which will cause 86,000 Iowans to lose their health insurance, and close rural hospitals and clinics.”

“In Congress, I’ll fight for common-sense solutions like allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices to lower costs and provide people with more choices.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Focus on veterans and mental health

Nunn emphasizes supporting mental health priorities and expanding healthcare services for veterans, active-duty military, and their families while protecting vulnerable populations.

  • Supports policy measures funding mental health resources for service members and veterans.
  • Pledges to protect healthcare commitments for seniors and disabled populations.

“In Washington, he supported policies that not only adequately fund our military but prioritize our veterans, active military, military families, and mental health.”

04

Border security and immigration

medium salience

Trone Garriott supports comprehensive reform linking border security with legal pathways and Dreamer protections, while Nunn favors strict statutory border enforcement and deportation measures.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Comprehensive reform and enforcement

Trone Garriott supports comprehensive immigration reform that combines strict border enforcement and anti-trafficking investments with streamlined legal pathways, protection for Dreamers, and ICE accountability.

  • Secure the border and streamline legal immigration pathways.
  • Protect Dreamers and invest in stopping drug smuggling and human trafficking.
  • Ensure ICE follows the law and remains accountable to the public.

“In Congress, I’ll push for comprehensive immigration reform that fixes our broken system: secures the border, streamlines legal pathways, protects Dreamers, and invests in preventing human trafficking and drug smuggling.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Enforce laws and secure border

Nunn advocates for strict southern border enforcement to halt illegal immigration, human trafficking, and drug smuggling. In Congress, he voted for major border control measures and legislation penalizing unlawful immigrants who commit crimes.

  • Voted for H.R. 2 (Secure the Border Act) and S. 5 (Laken Riley Act).
  • Supported H.R. 875 to make DUI offenses grounds for deporting undocumented immigrants.
  • Supports expanding physical and law enforcement barriers at the southern border.

“As your representative, he helped pass the most comprehensive border security solution – ensuring that we’re combatting the flow of illegal drugs, human trafficking, and exploitation coming across our Southern Border.”

05

Education

medium salience

Trone Garriott strongly opposes private vouchers and seeks to increase federal funding for public classrooms, whereas Nunn focuses on education reform, literacy programs, and flexible learning options.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Protect and fund public education

Trone Garriott opposes private school voucher schemes that divert public funding, advocating instead for federal support to public classrooms, higher teacher salaries, and expanded pre-K and vocational options.

  • Protect Department of Education funding for local public classrooms.
  • Raise teacher salaries and expand early childhood education.
  • Opposed private school vouchers, book bans, and cuts to Area Education Agencies (AEAs) in state senate.
  • Expand affordable access to community colleges and trade programs.

“In Congress, I’ll work to protect the Department of Education and the hundreds of millions of federal dollars that flow to Iowa classrooms each year.”

“I opposed private school vouchers, book bans, the destructive AEA bill, and the misguided attendance policy.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Promote educational reform and choice

Nunn supports education reforms designed to improve student achievements, highlighting support for early literacy programs, digital learning options, and leadership incentives for teachers.

  • Supported early literacy programs and expanded online learning in state legislature.
  • Advocated for pay and leadership opportunities for teachers alongside student assessment standards.
  • Passed legislation expanding parental leave for military families.

“America’s best educational value in the country -- early literacy programs, online learning, student assessments, and pay and leadership opportunities for teachers.”

06

Agriculture and Energy

medium salience

Trone Garriott emphasizes wind, solar, and conservation investments to combat climate change, while Nunn focuses on Farm Bill support, biofuel expansion, and increasing domestic traditional energy production.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Invest in clean energy and conservation

Trone Garriott supports clean energy development in wind, solar, and biofuels to grow green jobs, paired with voluntary conservation programs for farmers to protect Iowa's water and soil quality.

  • Invest in clean energy technologies including wind, solar, and biofuels.
  • Partner with farmers to implement sustainable soil and clean water practices.
  • Recognized as Izaak Walton League Legislator of the Year for conservation leadership.

“In Congress, I’ll support investments in clean energy like wind, solar, and biofuels—which already power thousands of Iowa jobs—and I’ll work with farmers to promote sustainable practices that keep our soil healthy and our water safe.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Support Farm Bill and biofuels

Nunn champions Iowa's agricultural sector by fighting for a comprehensive Farm Bill and supporting ethanol and biofuel production to ensure national energy independence.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Agriculture.
  • Pushes for strong Farm Bill funding to support rural farm communities.
  • Promotes ethanol and renewable biofuel production to expand domestic energy supplies.
  • Voted for H.R. 1 (Lower Energy Costs Act) to boost domestic oil, gas, and energy production.

“Zach fights in DC for a Farm Bill to ensure Iowa’s farmers and rural communities have support they need to continue to drive Iowa’s economy.”

“Also a tireless advocate for Iowa’s biofuels and ethanol producers, he pushed for strong support for renewable fuels that help make America more energy independent.”

07

Labor and workforce

medium salience

Trone Garriott centers her workforce agenda on union protections like the PRO Act and prevailing wages, whereas Nunn focuses on family-oriented workforce support like military parental leave and childcare.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Protect collective bargaining and wages

Trone Garriott is a staunch ally of organized labor who advocates for protecting collective bargaining rights, passing the PRO Act, and strictly enforcing prevailing wage laws under the Davis-Bacon Act.

  • Supports passing the PRO Act to protect workers' right to organize.
  • Supports enforcing Davis-Bacon Act prevailing wage requirements on infrastructure projects.
  • Holds a 100% lifetime voting record with the Iowa Federation of Labor AFL-CIO.

“In Congress, I’ll support passage of the PRO Act to strengthen and enforce these rights, and I’ll work to ensure strong enforcement of the Davis-Bacon Act so that federally funded infrastructure projects pay workers fair, prevailing wages.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Support working parents

Nunn focuses his workforce platform on helping working parents by expanding childcare availability, simplifying adoption, and passing military parental leave legislation.

  • Passed legislation expanding paid parental leave for military service members.
  • Pushes proposals to expand childcare accessibility and simplify federal adoption procedures.

“He is fighting to make it easier for parents to work, raise families, and pay the bills.”

08

Government ethics and reform

low salience

Trone Garriott emphasizes banning corporate PAC funds and congressional stock trading, while Nunn highlights term limit pledges and federal transparency votes.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Ban stock trading and corporate PACs

Trone Garriott advocates for government transparency and anti-corruption measures, including banning congressional stock trading, banning corporate PAC contributions, and setting term limits.

  • Authored state legislation in Iowa to ban insider stock trading and impose term limits.
  • Supports banning corporate PAC money in political campaigns.
  • Pledges to hold open, regular town halls to maintain transparency.

“I’ve authored legislation in Iowa to ban insider stock trading and impose term limits—because public service shouldn’t be a pathway to personal enrichment. We need to ban corporate PAC contributions...”

Republican Zach Nunn

Support term limits and transparency

Nunn champions limited government and congressional oversight. He has signed term limit pledges and supported legislation requiring government agency transparency.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge.
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge.
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) and SAVE Act (H.R. 22).

“Zach will never stop fighting for Iowans’ individual liberties, fiscal discipline, and limited government.”

09

Veterans and National Defense

low salience

Trone Garriott focuses on expanding rural VA access and suicide prevention services, whereas Nunn draws on his military background to advocate for full defense spending and military family benefits.

Democratic Sarah Trone Garriott

Expand rural VA healthcare and services

Trone Garriott focuses on improving veteran care by expanding rural VA services, eliminating bureaucratic red tape for housing and job training, and increasing funding for veteran suicide prevention.

  • Expand VA healthcare options in rural Iowa communities.
  • Streamline access to veteran housing, education, and job training programs.
  • Advocate for increased investment in veteran suicide prevention and crisis response.

“In Congress, I’ll work to expand access to VA services—especially in rural areas—and ensure our vets can access housing, education, and job training without jumping through hoops.”

Republican Zach Nunn

Fully fund defense and support veterans

Drawing on his 20-year military career, Air Force Reserve Colonel Nunn champions fully funding national defense, supporting active-duty military families, and improving mental healthcare for veterans.

  • 20-year combat veteran and U.S. Air Force Reserve Colonel.
  • Passed legislation expanding parental leave for military service members.
  • Voted for the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2024 and FY 2025.

“As a 20 year combat veteran, Zach knows the importance of a strong military when it comes to defending our country, protecting democracy, and promoting peace.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

IA-03 House Election Winner

85.0% Democrats
14.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 85.0REPUBLICANS 14.0

Kalshi ↗

IA-03 House winner?

85.0% Sarah Trone Garriott
16.0% Zach Nunn
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31GARRIOTT 85.0NUNN 16.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.