Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Iowa Toss-up

Iowa — 1st District

Portrait of Christina Bohannan

Democrat

Christina Bohannan

Portrait of Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Republican

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

The 2026 general election for Iowa's 1st Congressional District is a high-stakes rematch between Republican incumbent Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Democratic challenger Christina Bohannan, who previously faced each other in 2022 and 2024. The contest hinges on cost-of-living concerns, tariffs, healthcare costs, agricultural policy, reproductive rights, government ethics, and education funding. Forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up, with Decision Desk rating it Lean Democratic, making it one of the most competitive battleground U.S. House races in the nation.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
76.0%
Republicans
24.5%
Kalshi ↗
Christina Bohannan
76.0%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
30.0%

All markets →

01

Economy & Cost of Living

high salience

Bohannan advocates ending tariffs, capping costs, and restricting hedge fund home purchases, whereas Miller-Meeks focuses on tax relief, cutting federal debt, and expanding domestic energy production.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Lower living costs and reverse tariffs

Bohannan makes lowering living expenses her top priority, focusing on reversing federal tariffs, curbing corporate price gouging, and preventing private investors from inflating housing costs. She pledges to lower utility bills by expanding clean energy and protecting union jobs.

  • Exercise congressional power to end tariffs that cost Iowa families $2,400 annually.
  • Prohibit hedge funds and private investors from buying family homes and land to raise rents artificially.
  • Build and rehabilitate housing to make safe living affordable for Iowans.
  • Crack down on corporate price gouging on groceries, goods, and agricultural inputs.

“Tackling the high cost of living and lowering prices will be my top priority in Congress.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Cut taxes and reduce debt

Miller-Meeks emphasizes providing tax relief for working families, reducing federal debt, and taking on insurance companies to lower consumer costs. She supported key budget reconciliation legislation and domestic energy development to combat inflation.

  • Voted for H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) to adjust tax policy and federal debt limits.
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to expand domestic energy production and lower consumer energy bills.
  • Opposes far-left policies that block tax cuts for working families.

“I'll take on the big fights: insurance companies raising prices, corrupt politicians trading stocks, fraudsters stealing your benefits, radicals pushing their agenda on our children, and the far left blocking tax cuts for working families.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Bohannan proposes creating a public Medicare buy-in option for all ages and lowering prescription costs, while Miller-Meeks focuses on doctor-led reforms to take on big insurance companies.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Allow Medicare buy-in and lower drug prices

Bohannan advocates allowing Iowans to buy into Medicare at any age to increase market competition without establishing a single-payer system. She also focuses on extending ACA tax credits, protecting pre-existing condition coverage, and capping insulin prices.

  • Allow Iowans of any age to buy into Medicare while preserving private insurance choices.
  • Cap insulin costs at $35 per month for all Americans.
  • Reverse Medicaid cuts and extend ACA tax credits to reduce insurance premiums.
  • Expand Medicare to cover vision, dental, hearing, and home health care.

“I believe that allowing Iowans the option to buy into Medicare at any age – which will increase competition, expand choice, and bring down costs – is the best way to do it.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Lower healthcare costs and reform insurance

Miller-Meeks uses her background as a physician and subcommittee leadership to advocate for taking on big insurance companies to lower costs. She emphasizes patient-centered care and market options.

  • Serves as Health Subcommittee Chair for Veterans' Affairs and member of the Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee.
  • Pledges to confront big insurance companies to bring down consumer health costs.

“The big insurance companies didn't think a small-town doctor would take them on to lower your costs.”

03

Abortion & Reproductive Rights

high salience

Bohannan supports codifying Roe v. Wade to protect federal abortion and IVF rights, whereas Miller-Meeks maintains a pro-life platform supporting abortion restrictions.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Codify Roe v. Wade federally

Bohannan firmly supports restoring federal reproductive rights, opposing state and national abortion bans. She stresses that healthcare decisions should remain between women and their doctors, protecting access to abortion and IVF.

  • Pass legislation to restore Roe v. Wade into federal law.
  • Protect access to IVF fertility treatments nationwide.
  • Oppose state 6-week abortion bans and federal restrictions.

“And I will fight every day to put Roe v. Wade back into federal law where it belongs and restore reproductive freedom for all Iowans.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Pro-life advocate

Miller-Meeks identifies as a pro-life conservative, featuring anti-abortion advocacy as a primary theme in her campaign messaging.

  • Maintains a pro-life policy stance featured prominently on her campaign website.
04

Agriculture & Environment

medium salience

Bohannan focuses on reversing tariffs, cracking down on Big Ag monopolies, and reducing water pollution, while Miller-Meeks emphasizes stopping foreign purchases of farmland and expanding domestic energy.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Support family farms and water quality

Bohannan supports family farmers by advocating for an end to trade wars, cracking down on corporate seed and fertilizer monopolies, and passing a Farm Bill with fair crop insurance. She also calls for urgent action on clean energy and water pollution from nitrates and PFAS.

  • Reverse tariffs and trade wars that threaten Iowa agricultural export markets.
  • Pass a Farm Bill that protects local farmers rather than giant corporations.
  • Reduce PFAS forever chemicals and nitrate pollution in Iowa waterways.
  • Provide incentives for farmers to grow cover crops and expand buffer zones.

“Supporting our family farms and protecting our environment are not mutually exclusive – when done right, they can work together and reinforce each other.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Protect farmland and promote energy production

Miller-Meeks focuses on protecting Iowa farmland from foreign ownership, particularly by China, and boosting domestic energy production through federal legislation.

  • Opposes foreign acquisition of Iowa farmland by adversarial nations like China.
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to support domestic natural gas, oil, and mineral production.

“China didn't think anyone would stop them from buying Iowa farmland.”

05

Government Ethics & Democracy

medium salience

Bohannan advocates for banning congressional stock trading, enacting term limits, and overturning Citizens United, while Miller-Meeks emphasizes voting integrity legislation and opposing stock trading by corrupt politicians.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Pass comprehensive government ethics reform

Bohannan proposes sweeping ethical reforms to curb corporate influence in politics, including banning congressional stock trading, enacting term limits, and overturning Citizens United. She also supports opening primary elections to independent voters.

  • Ban stock trading for Members of Congress, Executive branch officials, Supreme Court Justices, and spouses.
  • Pass a constitutional amendment to reverse Citizens United.
  • Establish term limits, age caps, and a permanent lobbying ban for former members and staff.
  • Pass the Let America Vote Act to allow independent voters to participate in primaries.

“It’s time we put our Constitution over corruption, and people over corporations.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Support election integrity and reform stock trading

Miller-Meeks supports requiring proof of citizenship for federal voting and taking on corrupt politicians trading stocks. She also voted for transparency measures like publishing unclassified Epstein investigation records.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).
  • Campaigns on stopping corrupt politicians from trading stocks and preventing benefit fraud.

“I'll take on the big fights: insurance companies raising prices, corrupt politicians trading stocks, fraudsters stealing your benefits, radicals pushing their agenda on our children, and the far left blocking tax cuts for working families.”

06

Education & School Choice

medium salience

Bohannan opposes school voucher programs and advocates for reinvesting in public education, whereas Miller-Meeks supports school vouchers and restricting transgender participation in female sports.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Reinvest in public schools and oppose vouchers

Bohannan prioritizes robust funding for public pre-K-12 schools, community colleges, and trade apprenticeships while strongly opposing private school voucher plans. She argues vouchers defund rural public schools and harm local communities.

  • Oppose state and national private school voucher plans.
  • Increase national investments in public school infrastructure, with an emphasis on rural districts.
  • Expand Career and Technical Education (CTE) programs.
  • Guarantee free school meals for all students.

“I owe my life – every opportunity I’ve ever had – to public schools and teachers.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Support school vouchers and restrict transgender athletes

Miller-Meeks supports private school voucher programs and believes school sports should restrict participation based on biological sex. She voted for federal legislation prohibiting biological males from competing in women's athletic programs.

  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
  • Supports state and national private school voucher policies.

“The left didn't think a mom and grandmother would keep boys out of girls' sports.”

07

Social Security & Seniors

medium salience

Bohannan opposes privatization or raising the retirement age while seeking to expand Medicare benefits, whereas Miller-Meeks emphasizes her medical leadership and healthcare subcommittee work.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Protect Social Security and expand Medicare benefits

Bohannan opposes any cuts, privatization, or retirement age increases for Social Security and Medicare. She advocates expanding Medicare benefits to cover dental, vision, hearing, and home care for family caregivers.

  • Protect Social Security trust funds and oppose raising the retirement age.
  • Expand Medicare coverage to include vision, dental, hearing, and family caregiver home health costs.
  • Allow Medicare to negotiate lower prices on additional prescription drugs.

“Our seniors have paid into Social Security and Medicare over a lifetime of hard work. They’ve earned it. They depend on it. And we’ve got to protect it.”

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Protect seniors through healthcare leadership

Miller-Meeks highlights her work as Health Subcommittee Chair for Veterans' Affairs, focusing on healthcare access and reform for seniors and veterans.

  • Serves as Chair of the Veterans' Affairs Health Subcommittee overseeing health delivery for older veterans.
  • Campaigns on stopping fraudsters from stealing senior and entitlement benefits.
08

Border Security & Immigration

medium salience

Miller-Meeks advocates for strict immigration enforcement laws and mandatory detention of undocumented immigrants accused of crimes, while Bohannan emphasizes general community safety and rule of law.

Democratic Christina Bohannan

Maintain safe communities and rule of law

Bohannan emphasizes maintaining safe communities free from crime and upholding the rule of law as part of her general platform on freedom and individual rights.

  • Supports safe communities free from crime and upholding constitutional rule of law.

Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Enforce strict border security laws

Miller-Meeks supports tough border enforcement legislation and mandatory detention or deportation for undocumented immigrants who commit crimes in the United States.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring mandatory DHS detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 875 making DUI offenses grounds for deportation or inadmissibility for undocumented immigrants.

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

IA-01 House Election Winner

76.0% Democrats
24.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 76.0REPUBLICANS 24.5

Kalshi ↗

IA-01 House winner?

76.0% Christina Bohannan
30.0% Mariannette Miller-Meeks
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BOHANNAN 76.0MILLER-MEEKS 30.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.