Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Hawaii Safe D

Hawaii — 2nd District

The 2026 election for Hawaii's 2nd Congressional District features Democratic incumbent Jill Tokuda facing Republican state Senator Brenton Awa. Major race ratings from Cook Political Report, Decision DeskHQ/The Hill, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball classify the district as Solid/Safe Democratic. The matchup hinges on competing approaches to Hawaii's cost of living and housing crisis, federal land use, healthcare delivery, and climate resilience following recent natural disasters. Tokuda emphasizes federal tax credits, healthcare expansion, and gun control, while Awa focuses on curbing corporate home purchases, repurposing federal lands, and lowering local consumer fees.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.5%
Republicans
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jill Tokuda
97.3%
Brenton Awa
4.6%

All markets →

01

Housing and Affordability

high salience

Awa focuses on curbing corporate home purchases and leasing federal land to counties for $1 per year, whereas Tokuda relies on expanding federal tax credits, child care subsidies, and minimum wage increases to assist working families.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Expand tax credits, build workforce housing

Focuses on providing immediate budget relief to working families by extending enhanced child tax credits and expanding the earned income tax credit. Advocates for building and preserving affordable workforce, senior, and essential-worker housing using federal assets and military property.

  • Advocate for the continuation of enhanced child tax credits via the American Family Act and expansion of the earned income tax credit.
  • Utilize federal resources to build, purchase, and preserve affordable housing units, including constructing civilian workforce housing on military bases.
  • Tackle speculative home purchases using targeted tax structures.
  • Support legislation expanding affordable childcare assistance by capping expenses at 7% of income for children under five.
  • Increase the minimum wage and support canceling student loan debt.
  • Support temporary federal gas tax suspensions and restart Emergency Rent and Utility Relief programs.

“I’m a working mom with two kids, and I share the same concern and urgency as so many other families. Working families need relief, and our children should be able to make a future for themselves in Hawaiʻi.”

Republican Brenton Awa

Restrict corporate buying, unlock federal land

Proposes restricting corporate investor acquisitions of single-family homes to shift the housing market back to local families. Advocates unlocking federally controlled lands for $1-per-year leases to counties for workforce housing, offering down payment assistance, and establishing a local owner-occupant priority window.

  • Limit corporate acquisitions of single-family homes.
  • Offer counties long-term federal leases at $1 per year on available federally controlled lands for workforce housing.
  • Tie federal infrastructure funding from DOT, EPA, and HUD to local workforce housing commitments.
  • Recalibrate the tax code to provide owner-occupants with tax write-offs similar to real estate investors.
  • Cap federal housing reimbursements and require DOD and DHS to prioritize on-base housing before entering private rental markets.
  • Reduce the blood quantum requirement for Hawaiian Homes to secure long-term housing.
  • Create an Owner Occupant Priority Window for buyers using federally backed loans before outside cash offers are accepted.

“NO ONE SHOULD HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN LEAVING THE PLACE THEY LOVE, AND BUILDING THE LIFE THEY DESERVE.”

02

Healthcare and Mental Health

high salience

Tokuda advocates for single-payer Medicare for All and federal rural health caucuses, while Awa favors expanding community health centers and mandating provider price transparency.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Supports Medicare for All, rural health

Co-founded the Bipartisan Rural Health Caucus to expand healthcare capacity in underserved island communities through mobile clinics and telehealth. Co-sponsored the Medicare for All Act of 2023, framing healthcare as a universal human right.

  • Co-sponsored the Medicare for All Act of 2023.
  • Re-established the Bipartisan Rural Health Caucus to address provider shortages in rural and Neighbor Island communities.
  • Expand capacity at rural hospitals and increase healthcare workforce incentives for underserved areas.
  • Promote mobile health clinics and expanded telehealth funding.

“Getting sick or injured should never be the reason why someone goes into crippling debt. Healthcare is a human right, and I will continue to fight for this critical legislation until equitable healthcare is a reality for all.”

Republican Brenton Awa

Expand health centers, price transparency

Focuses on expanding federally funded community health centers to prioritize affordable care over copays. Supports price transparency mandates requiring healthcare providers to post prices upfront so consumers can shop around.

  • Expand federally funded community health centers across Hawaii.
  • Require health providers to post prices in advance so patients can compare costs.
03

Gun Reform and Public Safety

medium salience

Tokuda champions strict federal firearm bans and red flag laws, whereas Awa approaches public safety by proposing National Guard deployments to high-crime communities.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Enact comprehensive federal gun controls

Serves on the Gun Violence Prevention Task Force and supports federal legislation to ban assault weapons, mandate universal background checks, and implement red flag laws. Points to her state legislative record banning bump stocks and multi-burst trigger activators.

  • Ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
  • Mandate universal background checks on all gun sales and transfers.
  • Enact nationwide Red Flag Laws and licensing requirements for firearm ownership.
  • Target unregulated ghost guns.
  • Supported state laws making bump stock possession a Class C felony and requiring firearm surrenders during mental health crises.

“How many lives do we have to lose before Republicans in Congress act on gun reform?”

Republican Brenton Awa

Deploy National Guard to high-crime areas

Proposes temporary deployments of National Guard units to assist local law enforcement in high-crime areas identified by data and local requests.

  • Authorize temporary National Guard unit deployments to assist local police in high-crime areas.
04

Climate Change and Environment

medium salience

Tokuda pushes for aggressive federal climate mandates and rapid clean energy growth, whereas Awa cautions that energy transitions must not drive up electric bills or compromise power reliability.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Aggressive climate action, renewable leadership

Calls for aggressive climate action to combat sea-level rise and coastal erosion by developing Hawaii as a national leader in solar, wind, and hydropower. Supports partnering with the Department of Defense to lower carbon emissions and drive green job growth.

  • Promote Hawaii as a leader in solar, wind, and hydropower energy production.
  • Align environmental policies with economic growth and clean energy job creation.
  • Partner with Department of Defense initiatives to reduce carbon footprints and improve climate resiliency.

“Aggressive action needs to be taken to address climate change impacts and increase renewable energy production.”

Republican Brenton Awa

Balanced energy approach, food forests

Urges a balanced federal energy strategy that ensures utility bills remain affordable while preventing power outages and blackouts. Promotes hands-on community restoration projects, including founding Hawaii's first roadside food forest.

  • Pursue a balanced energy policy ensuring clean energy transitions do not outpace consumer affordability.
  • Founded Hawaii's first roadside food forest and leads three 'aina-based restoration projects.
  • Saved over 26 million gallons of drinking water through community projects.
05

Election and Campaign Finance Reform

medium salience

Both candidates pledge independence from special interest money, with Tokuda supporting federal reform laws like the DISCLOSE Act while refusing corporate PACs, and Awa maintaining a personal 'No-Gift' pledge and zero-spending campaign model.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Reject corporate PACs, overturn Citizens United

Refuses to take corporate PAC contributions and pledges to overturn Citizens United to eliminate dark money influence in elections. Supports federal campaign finance legislation including the For the People Act and the DISCLOSE Act.

  • Pledged from day one of her campaign to refuse corporate PAC money.
  • Supports overturning Citizens United.
  • Supports the For the People Act and the DISCLOSE Act to increase donor disclosure and expand voting access.
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration.

“To demonstrate my commitment to this principle, I have refused to accept corporate PAC money from day one of my campaign.”

Republican Brenton Awa

Refuses gifts, minimal campaign spending

Maintains a strict self-imposed 'No-Gift' policy as a Hawaii state legislator and won re-election to the state Senate in 2024 without raising or spending campaign money.

  • Maintains a strict 'No-Gift' policy in public office.
  • Won re-election to the Hawaii State Senate in 2024 without raising or spending campaign funds.
  • Cast over 1,000 'No' votes against establishment legislative proposals.
06

Food Security and Agriculture

medium salience

Awa focuses on restoring canceled USDA grants and planting food forests, while Tokuda uses her House Agriculture Committee assignment to connect federal child nutrition grants with local farm purchases.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Boost local ag through federal nutrition

Serves on the House Committee on Agriculture and focuses on securing federal funding for child nutrition programs that purchase locally grown Hawaii produce.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Agriculture.
  • Secure federal child nutrition funds and direct them toward purchasing local agricultural produce.

Republican Brenton Awa

Restore USDA grants, food forests

Advocates restoring canceled USDA grants intended for Hawaii food production, invasive species management, and direct farmer assistance. Personally leads community food forest initiatives.

  • Restore canceled USDA grants designated for Hawaii food production, invasive species control, and farmer assistance.
  • Expand public roadside food forests across the state.
07

Consumer Fees and Transportation Costs

low salience

Both candidates support suspending or reducing federal gas taxes, but Awa adds proposals to charge military personnel full vehicle registration fees and make car insurance optional.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Suspend federal gas tax, energy relief

Supported an immediate suspension of the federal gas tax to provide instant financial relief to drivers facing high fuel prices.

  • Supported immediate suspension of the federal gas tax.

Republican Brenton Awa

Reduce fuel tax, military vehicle fees

Proposes lowering gas taxes, making vehicle insurance optional, and requiring military personnel stationed in Hawaii to pay standard vehicle registration fees to fund fee reductions for residents. Also advocates increasing military Space-Available flights on inter-island routes to lower commercial flight demand.

  • Pass tariff revenue to consumers by lowering the federal gas tax and incentivizing state fuel tax cuts.
  • Require military personnel in Hawaii to pay standard vehicle registration fees and use revenue to lower resident fees.
  • Allow residents to opt out of mandatory vehicle insurance.
  • Expand DoD Space-Available flights for service members on inter-island routes during peak periods to ease commercial travel demand.
08

Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Tokuda explicitly advocates codifying federal abortion rights and repealing the Hyde Amendment, whereas Awa has no documented position on reproductive rights in the sources.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Codify federal abortion and contraception rights

Opposes federal abortion restrictions and co-sponsored legislation to codify abortion rights nationwide and protect contraceptive access. Supports fully funding Title X programs, repealing the Hyde Amendment, and protecting personal reproductive data.

  • Co-sponsored the Women's Health Protection Act to codify nationwide abortion access.
  • Co-sponsored the Right to Contraception Act.
  • Fully fund Title X Family Planning Programs and repeal the Hyde Amendment.
  • Protect personal data stored in reproductive health apps and defend the constitutional right to travel for healthcare.
  • Founding member of the Patsy T. Mink Political Action Committee.

“I’m committed to ensuring that our girls do not grow up with fewer freedoms than their mothers and grandmothers had, particularly in terms of their fundamental right to make their own health decisions.”

Republican Brenton Awa No documented position in our sources
09

Disaster Preparedness and Relief

medium salience

Tokuda presents detailed proposals for federal disaster relief and community readiness post-Maui wildfires, whereas Awa has no documented disaster preparedness platform in the sources.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Secure federal disaster funding, community preparedness

Focuses on securing federal disaster preparedness funding following the West Maui wildfires to equip first responders, upgrade emergency communications, and train local communities.

  • Secure federal funding for firefighting equipment, emergency communications, and disaster response.
  • Equip first responders, state, and county governments to handle climate-related emergencies.
  • Support community education on preventive disaster protocols and recovery resources.

“I am dedicated to fortifying Hawaiʻi’s disaster preparedness, ensuring our communities are resilient, well-equipped, and ready to face the challenges posed by climate change.”

Republican Brenton Awa No documented position in our sources
10

Education

medium salience

Tokuda advocates for universal free preschool, tuition-free community college, and student debt cancellation, while Awa has no documented education platform in the sources.

Democratic Jill Tokuda

Universal public education, free community college

Advocates for universal access to free public education from early childhood through higher education. Supports tuition-free community college and workforce certification pipelines.

  • Support universal access to free public preschool and early childhood education.
  • Provide universal access to free community college and vocational training programs.
  • Support canceling student loan debt.
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).

“Funding quality public education for students of all ages is one of the most valuable investments for the future of Hawai‘i because a well-educated population is the foundation of a thriving community.”

Republican Brenton Awa No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

HI-02 House Election Winner

95.5% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.5REPUBLICANS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

HI-02 House winner?

97.3% Jill Tokuda
4.6% Brenton Awa
255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16PARTY 97.3TOKUDA 97.3AWA 4.6PARTY 1.7

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.