Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Hawaii Safe D

Hawaii — 1st District

The general election for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District features incumbent Democratic Representative Ed Case facing Republican challenger Adriel Lam, alongside Green candidate Jordan Conley and Nonpartisan candidate Nathan Berning. The matchup centers on Case's record of moderate legislative pragmatism and seniority on the House Appropriations Committee versus Lam's platform focused on free-market economic principles, safety net decentralization, and military community mitigation. Major election forecasters, including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, all rate the race as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.3%
Republicans
5.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ed Case
97.0%
Adriel Lam
3.0%
Kalshi ↗
Adriel Lam
99.0%
Maxwell Frazier
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ed Case
99.0%
Della Au Belatti
4.0%
Ben Fatula
4.0%
Perry Gregg
2.0%
Jarrett Keohokalole
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ed Case
99.9%
Della Au Belatti
0.1%
Jarrett Keohokalole
0.1%
Maxwell Frazier
0.1%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Case focuses on targeted federal policy and government solutions to lower everyday living costs, whereas Lam emphasizes free-market principles, deregulation, and shipping reforms.

Democratic Ed Case

Focus on reducing high living expenses

Case identifies the high cost of living, including housing, food, gas, and childcare, as his primary focus in Congress. He advocates leveraging federal resources while sustaining private enterprise to drive local economic growth.

  • Identifies everyday expenses like housing, gas, and childcare as top legislative priority
  • Supports private enterprise as the primary driver of economic advancement
  • Promotes targeted federal assistance to address Hawaii's specific economic needs

“We all know that we face challenging times. And for most of us, they start with the unacceptably high cost of living, with too many just trying to keep up with housing, food, gas, childcare, and other everyday expenses. This is my top priority in Congress.”

Republican Adriel Lam

Support free market and regulatory reform

Lam views high living costs, housing prices, and stagnant bureaucracy as key reasons residents leave Hawaii. He advocates for free-market principles, a welcoming business environment, and reforming federal shipping regulations to improve market access.

  • Reform federal shipping regulations to give Hawaii businesses fair market access
  • Support free-market principles and reduce stagnant bureaucracy
  • Create a competitive business environment to retain local workers and kupuna

“Cost of living, housing prices, noncompetitive business environment and stagnant bureaucracy all contribute to the decision to leave and never return home.”

02

Foreign policy and Pacific strategy

medium salience

Case advocates for broad international diplomacy and engagement through institutions like the UN, while Lam emphasizes a nationalist focus centered strictly on protecting U.S. citizens and Asia-Pacific alliances.

Democratic Ed Case

Supports Indo-Pacific constructive engagement

Case promotes active global diplomacy, particularly across the Indo-Pacific region. He advocates working with international allies, fulfilling the promise of the United Nations, and addressing security concerns posed by China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.

  • Maintain constructive policy engagement in the Indo-Pacific region
  • Strengthen international alliances and support the United Nations
  • Work multilaterally to address problem states like China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran

“Continue policy of constructive engagement with rest of world especially the Indo-Pacific”

Republican Adriel Lam

Prioritize national security and Pacific partnerships

Lam argues foreign policy should focus strictly on protecting American citizens' rights and interests while maintaining peace in the Asia-Pacific through alliances. He supports opening economic and cultural pathways across the Pacific and leveraging Hawaii's strategic location.

  • Base foreign policy strictly on protecting the rights and interests of American citizens
  • Maintain peace in the Asia-Pacific through partnerships with like-minded allies
  • Open economic and cultural pathways to the Pacific region

“U.S. foreign policy should be based solely on protecting the rights and interests of American citizens around the world.”

03

Defense and military affairs

medium salience

Case focuses on maintaining a strong military and intelligence apparatus through his Appropriations post, whereas Lam emphasizes community compensation and remediation from federal land leases.

Democratic Ed Case

Maintain strong defense and military support

Case supports maintaining a robust national defense and strengthening intelligence capabilities while taking care of service members. Leveraging his position on the Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, he emphasizes supporting troops at home and abroad.

  • Maintain a strong military and support service members domestically and abroad
  • Strengthen intelligence capabilities and homeland defense
  • Utilize Appropriations Committee seniority to fund defense and veterans' initiatives

“Maintain a strong military and take care of our troops both in the field and at home”

Republican Adriel Lam

Support national defense with community mitigation

Lam, a 24-year Army veteran, supports maintaining Hawaii's strategic defense role while advocating for fair compensation to communities hosting military land leases. He proposes federal assistance in infrastructure, housing, and environmental remediation to offset military impacts.

  • Support national security imperatives and military readiness in Hawaii
  • Negotiate military land leases to include fair community compensation
  • Require federal assistance for infrastructure, housing, and environmental remediation in affected areas

“Federal assistance through infrastructure, housing, remediation and mitigation can all be part of the solution for fair land use and compensation.”

04

Social Security and Medicare

medium salience

Case supports preserving and lockboxing public Social Security and Medicare funds, while Lam advocates transferring program management and investment to individuals and private entities.

Democratic Ed Case

Protect and lockbox Social Security

Case supports protecting Social Security and Medicare entitlement programs for current and future generations. He advocates placing Social Security trust funds in a lockbox and amending Medicare reimbursement formulas to better serve Hawaii.

  • Lockbox Social Security trust funds to prevent spending on non-Social Security purposes
  • Amend unfair Medicare reimbursement formulas applied to Hawaii
  • Fully fund entitlement programs for seniors and veterans

“Lockbox Social Security trust funds and kick habit of spending them for non-SS purposes”

Republican Adriel Lam

Privatize and decentralize safety net programs

Lam asserts that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are financially unsound and should not be relied upon for routine needs. He proposes returning management and investment of these safety net programs to individuals and private entities.

  • Reject assertions that Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are currently financially sound
  • Restrict safety net programs strictly to emergency, exigent circumstances
  • Transition program management and investment back to individuals and private entities

“These programs need to be given back to the individuals and/or collective entities to plan, manage, invest and incentivized to prepare for their future.”

05

Environment and climate change

medium salience

Case supports international climate conventions and federal conservation programs, while Lam calls for practical adaptation and warns against funding politically driven climate research.

Democratic Ed Case

Expand environmental protection and climate conventions

Case supports international climate conventions and enhanced funding for environmental protection. He advocates expanding the national park system and protecting oceanic ecosystems, particularly in island communities.

  • Join global climate change conventions with other nations
  • Enhance programs and funding for environmental protection
  • Expand national parks, reserves, and oceanic protection systems

“Join other nations of the world in climate change convention.”

Republican Adriel Lam

Practical measures and non-political research

Lam supports practical environmental measures and adaptation to long-term natural cycles. He cautions against political research funding and urges investing in hard science and creative technical solutions.

  • Apply practical environmental measures and adapt to natural climate cycles
  • Fund hard science rather than politically driven climate research
  • Invest in innovative and creative technological solutions

“Congress should invest in real, hard sciences, and not fund politically driven research based on dubious claims and questionable results.”

06

Healthcare

medium salience

Case advocates enhancing national healthcare reforms and expanding local health centers, whereas Lam advocates restricting public safety nets to emergency situations and shifting responsibility to individuals.

Democratic Ed Case

Strengthen healthcare access and national reforms

Case supports improving national healthcare reforms while tailoring federal programs to Hawaii's unique needs, such as high rates of ethnic illnesses. He advocates for increased funding for community health centers and telemedicine.

  • Continue and improve national healthcare reforms
  • Focus federal health resources on Hawaii-specific ethnic health disparities
  • Support community health centers and telemedicine services

“Continue/improve national health care reforms”

Republican Adriel Lam

Individual and free-market health responsibility

Lam includes healthcare safety nets like Medicare and Medicaid in his critique of federal entitlement programs, arguing safety nets should be reserved for emergency situations. He supports individual responsibility and free-market principles in healthcare management.

  • Limit public health safety nets to emergency, exigent circumstances
  • Empower individuals and private entities to manage healthcare decisions
  • Support free-market principles across health policy

“Safety nets are for emergency, exigent circumstances, not routine, regular, or even abnormal conditions.”

07

Voting rights and immigration

medium salience

Case has a voting record supporting federal citizenship proof requirements for voter registration alongside legal immigration expansion, while Lam centers his campaign on general free and fair election principles.

Democratic Ed Case

Expand legal immigration and support proof-of-citizenship voting legislation

Case supports expanding legal immigration pathways while curtailing illegal immigration. In Congress, he voted in favor of the SAVE Act, which mandates documented proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.

  • Voted Yea on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) requiring citizenship proof for federal election registration
  • Support expanded legal immigration while curtailing illegal entry
  • Maintain internal and border terrorism prevention measures

“Support expanded legal immigration while curtailing illegal immigration”

Republican Adriel Lam

Ensure free and fair elections

Lam emphasizes maintaining free and fair elections as a key pillar of his platform. He supports strict election integrity measures to bolster public trust in democratic processes.

  • Ensure free and fair elections as part of his core campaign pillars
  • Protect democratic processes from political polarization and myopic partisanship

“Ensure free and fair elections”

08

Government reform and governance

medium salience

Case advocates for campaign finance reform and cross-party legislative compromise, while Lam focuses on preserving the Senate filibuster to prevent simple-majority rule.

Democratic Ed Case

Promote bipartisanship and campaign finance reform

Case emphasizes a bipartisan, pragmatic approach to governance, rejecting strict party-line gridlock. He supports ethics reforms to reduce lobbyist influence and campaign finance laws to eliminate dark money.

  • Vote for people over party and reject partisan gridlock
  • Reform ethics laws to break ties between lobbyist interests and decisionmaking
  • Reform campaign contribution laws to eliminate dark money

“We must forge a new way of governance that rejects pure partisan politics and incorporates our best ideas regardless of origin.”

Republican Adriel Lam

Preserve Senate filibuster and constitutional republic

Lam defends constitutional checks like the Senate filibuster, arguing it prevents passing fleeting, poorly conceived laws by simple majorities. He criticizes partisan polarization and media coverage for undermining democratic institutions.

  • Retain the Senate filibuster to prevent simple-majority overreach
  • Criticize media partisanship and uncontested primary races
  • Protect constitutional republic principles through deliberate congressional discussion

“Giving power to a simple majority of 50% plus one is dangerous and a threat to a constitutional republic.”

09

Gun policy

low salience
Democratic Ed Case No documented position in our sources

Republican Adriel Lam

Promote self-defense and mandatory firearm education

Lam believes reducing gun violence relies on personal discipline and education rather than strict gun control laws. He advocates for federal investment in self-defense and mandatory firearm safety training for citizens.

  • Invest in self-defense and firearms education
  • Emphasize individual responsibility and discipline in handling firearms
  • Oppose federal gun control measures in favor of safety education

“Congress should invest in more self-defense and firearms education. Security is both a collective and individual responsibility.”

Prediction markets 5

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

HI-01 House Election Winner

95.3% Democrats
5.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 95.3REPUBLICANS 5.0

Kalshi ↗

HI-01 House winner?

97.0% Ed Case
3.0% Adriel Lam
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 97.0CASE 97.0PARTY 3.0LAM 3.0

Kalshi ↗

HI-01 Republican nominee?

99.0% Adriel Lam
1.0% Maxwell Frazier
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16LAM 99.0FRAZIER 1.0

Kalshi ↗

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Ed Case
4.0% Della Au Belatti
4.0% Ben Fatula

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CASE 99.0FATULA 4.0BELATTI 4.0GREGG 2.0KEOHOKALOLE 1.0

Kalshi ↗

HI-01 Democratic nominee?

99.9% Ed Case
0.1% Della Au Belatti
0.1% Jarrett Keohokalole

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CASE 99.9KEOHOKALOLE 0.1FRAZIER 0.1BELATTI 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.