Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Likely R

Florida — 27th District

Portrait of Eliott Rodriguez

Democrat

Eliott Rodriguez

Portrait of Maria Elvira Salazar

Republican

Maria Elvira Salazar

Florida's 27th Congressional District features incumbent Republican Maria Elvira Salazar running against Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez in the general election on November 3, 2026, following their primary victories on August 18, 2026. The contest takes place under Florida's newly redrawn congressional map, with major election handicappers—including Cook Political Report, Decision Desk, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball—rating the district as Likely Republican. The race hinges primarily on addressing South Florida's economic affordability and housing pressure, alongside sharp policy contrasts on immigration enforcement, healthcare regulation, and foreign policy regarding Latin American regimes.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
81.5%
Democrats
16.5%
Kalshi ↗
Maria Elvira Salazar
78.0%
Eliott Rodriguez
22.0%
Kalshi ↗
Maria Elvira Salazar
97.0%
Vincent Michael Arias
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Eliott Rodriguez
99.0%
Alex Fornino
1.0%
Lev Parnas
1.0%
Robin Peguero
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Rodriguez advocates for targeted government policy to increase workforce housing supply and stabilize property insurance, whereas Salazar favors broad tax relief, regulatory reductions, and free-market job growth.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Focuses on housing and insurance stabilization

Rodriguez views affordability as the defining issue facing South Florida families, pointing to rising prices for groceries, borrowing, and property insurance. He advocates for structural interventions, specifically increasing workforce housing development and stabilizing the regional property insurance market.

  • Confront structural drivers of inflation, including housing supply constraints and property insurance volatility.
  • Promote workforce housing development to keep young professionals and families from moving out of South Florida.
  • Align local wages with rising everyday costs for groceries and borrowing.

“Affordability is the defining economic issue for working families right now. Groceries cost more. Insurance costs more. Borrowing costs more. And for too many households, wages have not kept pace.”

“In this environment, we must confront the structural drivers of cost in South Florida, including housing supply constraints and insurance instability.”

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Salazar champions tax relief, regulatory rollbacks, and small business support to foster economic growth. In Congress, she voted for major budget reconciliation and energy production legislation while highlighting her work recovering fraudulent pandemic spending and hosting local job fairs.

  • Voted for the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1 reconciliation) addressing tax policy, debt statutory limits, and program funding.
  • Supported making middle-class and individual provisions of the 2017 tax cuts permanent.
  • Voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) and Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023.
  • Recovered billions in fraudulent pandemic spending and hosted job fairs across District 27.

“The Republican Tax Cut law was the right thing to do for our economy and our struggling middle class. I also believe, that tax cuts, combined with fewer regulations, have led to the explosive growth of our economy.”

02

Immigration and border security

high salience

Rodriguez prioritizes rejecting harsh immigrant enforcement rhetoric, while Salazar pairs votes for strict federal detention and deportation bills with support for conditional work authorization.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Opposes harsh anti-immigrant policies

Rodriguez centers his immigration message on human dignity and opposition to punitive measures. He explicitly rejects rhetoric and policies that he characterizes as cruel toward immigrant communities.

  • Opposes aggressive or punitive federal immigration enforcement strategies.
  • Advocates for humane policy that respects South Florida's diverse immigrant population.

“the politics of cruelty toward immigrants is not who we are.”

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports border security paired with reform

Salazar supports strong border enforcement alongside bipartisan reform that offers legal work authorization for undocumented residents and permanent protections for DACA recipients. Her voting record includes supporting the Laken Riley Act, the Secure the Border Act of 2023, and deportation mandates for DUI convictions.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of noncitizens without legal permission arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2) and DUI deportation legislation (H.R. 875).
  • Advocates work authorizations for undocumented immigrants and DACA protections without family separation.

“We must tackle border security in a humane manner – without separating families – swiftly remove criminal aliens and correct visa overstay, while establishing a work authorization for the undocumented and a permanent solution for DACA recipients.”

03

Infrastructure and environment

medium salience

Rodriguez frames environmental protection as a broad campaign commitment, whereas Salazar points to specific federal funding secured for Everglades restoration, flood control, and port infrastructure.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Prioritizes environmental protection

Rodriguez includes environmental protection among his core campaign priorities. He connects environmental quality to overall sustainability and living standards in South Florida.

  • Lists environmental protection as one of five key pillars on his platform.

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Secured funding for resilience and Everglades

Salazar emphasizes securing federal appropriations for South Florida flood mitigation, stormwater management, coastal resilience, and Port Miami expansions. She champions Everglades preservation, Biscayne Bay cleanup, and coral reef restoration projects.

  • Secured Community Funding Projects for stormwater systems, flood mitigation, and Biscayne Bay water quality.
  • Passed legislation supporting coral reef restoration using retired Navy vessels as artificial reefs.
  • Advocates for a National Resilience Strategy to protect coastal communities from storm surges and rising sea levels.

“As a proud champion of the Everglades, I am fully committed to securing funding for its restoration and preservation, ensuring this unique ecosystem is protected for generations to come.”

“My work has delivered critical investments in flood mitigation, stormwater management, road and bridge improvements, water and sewer upgrades, coastal resilience, and port infrastructure.”

04

Healthcare

medium salience

Rodriguez emphasizes protecting traditional Medicare benefits, while Salazar favors market reforms across state lines alongside federal community health grants.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Supports defending Medicare and expanding access

Rodriguez pledges to defend Medicare against benefit reductions and integrates affordable healthcare access into his broader affordability platform.

  • Pledges to defend Medicare from federal benefit cuts.
  • Focuses on reducing consumer healthcare costs as part of overall family budget relief.

“Defending Social Security and Medicare”

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports market-based options and local grants

Salazar advocates reforming healthcare by allowing insurance sales across state lines, eliminating waste, and repealing ACA regulations. She highlights federal funding secured for local medical research, pediatric mental health, and physician training.

  • Secured federal funds to expand healthcare services, pediatric mental health access, and hospital infrastructure.
  • Advocates permitting health insurance purchases across state lines and reducing regulatory burdens.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 185 to repeal the CDC COVID-19 vaccination requirement for foreign travelers.

“I am determined to protect South Florida families from mounting costs by reforming our broken healthcare system with cost-effective and patient-centered solutions.”

05

Democracy and government reform

low salience

Rodriguez characterizes democratic institutions as under stress, while Salazar advocates for explicit reforms including congressional term limits, citizenship proof for voting, and judicial injunction limits.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Warns democracy is under stress

Rodriguez names defending democratic institutions as a motivating factor in his decision to run, asserting that American democracy is currently facing severe pressure.

  • Identifies protecting democratic norms as a core campaign priority.

“our democracy is under real stress”

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports term limits and voter ID rules

Salazar advocates congressional term limits to reduce career politicians and supported federal voter eligibility legislation. Her votes include supporting the SAVE Act requiring proof of citizenship to vote and limiting nationwide court injunctions.

  • Supports constitutional term limits for members of Congress in both parties.
  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote in federal elections.
  • Voted Yea on the NORRA of 2025 (H.R. 1526) to restrict federal district courts from issuing nationwide injunctions.

“We must get rid of career politicians in both parties that put profits and power above people, and we must set limits on how long public servants can serve in Washington.”

06

Social Security and senior care

low salience

Rodriguez focuses on defending Social Security against potential federal cuts, while Salazar highlights her vote for the Social Security Fairness Act to reduce benefit penalties for public retirees.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez

Pledges to defend Social Security

Rodriguez pledges to defend Social Security and Medicare from benefit cuts, making senior entitlement protection a primary platform item.

  • Pledges to defend Social Security and Medicare from benefit reductions.

“Defending Social Security and Medicare”

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports senior care and benefit equity

Salazar supports ensuring quality healthcare and dignity for elderly citizens. In Congress, she voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 to eliminate certain benefit reductions for public pensioners.

  • Voted Yea on the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82) to reduce benefit penalties for public pension recipients.
  • Supports enhanced healthcare access and support systems for retired seniors.

“Likewise, I will always stand by the elderly and work so that as they enter their golden years, they do so with the dignity, care and support they so greatly deserve.”

07

Foreign policy and anti-socialism

medium salience

Salazar maintains an extensive platform opposing Latin American socialist dictatorships and supporting Israel, whereas Rodriguez has no documented foreign policy positions in the provided sources.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez No documented position in our sources

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Opposes Latin American regimes and supports Israel

As Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, Salazar focuses heavily on opposing socialist regimes in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua through sanctions and oversight. She strongly defends U.S. alliance ties with Israel.

  • Serves as Chair of the Western Hemisphere Subcommittee on Foreign Affairs.
  • Held congressional hearings exposing abuses by the Cuban, Maduro, and Ortega regimes.
  • Voted Yea on H.Con.Res. 9 denouncing the horrors of socialism.
  • Advocates strong U.S. military and diplomatic backing for Israel.

“As your representative in Congress, I have been one of the strongest voices in Washington against socialism, communism, and authoritarian regimes.”

“Our nation’s close ties with Israel should be honored and protected. As our closest ally in the Middle East and the region’s only true free market democracy – we should stand by Israel.”

08

Public safety and firearms

low salience

Salazar proposes balancing Second Amendment rights with universal background checks and school mental health centers, while Rodriguez has no documented platform positions on firearms.

Democratic Eliott Rodriguez No documented position in our sources

Republican Maria Elvira Salazar

Supports gun safety and school prevention centers

Salazar supports Second Amendment rights alongside targeted gun safety measures like universal background checks and closing criminal acquisition loopholes. She has proposed establishing Early Intervention and Prevention Centers in public schools to address student mental health.

  • Supports 2nd Amendment rights while backing universal background checks and closing criminal acquisition loopholes.
  • Proposed Early Intervention and Prevention Centers (EIPC) in public schools to identify student mental health issues.
  • Voted for law enforcement resources and strict penalties for noncitizens driving impaired.

“Although we must continue to protect this fundamental Constitutional right, we must find ways to keep guns out of the hands of those who should never have them – namely children, criminals, and the mentally ill.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-27 House Election Winner

81.5% Republicans
16.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 81.5DEMOCRATS 16.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-27 House winner?

78.0% Maria Elvira Salazar
22.0% Eliott Rodriguez
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 79.0SALAZAR 78.0RODRIGUEZ 22.0PARTY 15.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-27 Republican nominee?

97.0% Maria Elvira Salazar
1.0% Vincent Michael Arias
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16SALAZAR 97.0ARIAS 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-27 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Eliott Rodriguez
1.0% Alex Fornino
1.0% Lev Parnas

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16RODRIGUEZ 99.0PEGUERO 1.0PARNAS 1.0FORNINO 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.