Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Tilt R

Florida — 22nd District

Florida's 22nd Congressional District features an open-seat matchup between Democratic nominee Pia Dandiya and Republican nominee Casey Askar following redistricting and incumbent Lois Frankel's decision to run in the neighboring 23rd District. Both candidates advanced from competitive primaries on August 18, 2026, setting up a general election in a district Donald Trump won in 2024. Major election handbooks view the race as competitive with a slight Republican edge, rating it Lean Republican (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, Decision Desk) or Tilt Republican (Inside Elections). The race hinges on whether Dandiya can leverage local ties and cost-of-living messaging to retain Democratic representation or if Askar's business background and conservative platform will flip the seat.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
56.5%
Democrats
43.0%
Kalshi ↗
Casey Askar
58.0%
Pia Dandiya
41.0%
Kalshi ↗
Casey Askar
99.0%
Michael Thompson
1.0%
Lateresa Jones
1.0%
Terri Hasdorff
1.0%
Anna Medvedeva
1.0%
Belinda Keiser
1.0%
Steve Avila
1.0%
Paola Branda
1.0%
David Burck
1.0%
Deborah Adeimy
1.0%
Richard Evans
1.0%
Herbie Wertheim
1.0%
Antonio Srado
1.0%
Michael Carbonara
1.0%
Chris Collins
1.0%
Pia Dandiya
0.0%
Kalshi ↗
Pia Dandiya
99.0%
Ian Blake
3.0%
Victoria Doyle
1.0%
Debbie Wasserman Schultz
1.0%
Kaysia Earley
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Tax Policy

high salience

Askar advocates cutting corporate tax rates, extending the 2017 tax cuts, and passing a balanced budget amendment, whereas Dandiya focuses on lowering everyday costs, housing, and insurance for South Florida families.

Democratic Pia Dandiya

Lower housing insurance everyday costs

Dandiya prioritizes reducing the cost of living for South Florida families, with an emphasis on housing, insurance, and everyday expenses. She frames her economic agenda around expanding opportunity and ensuring the federal government works for regular people rather than powerful special interests.

  • Tackle rising housing and insurance costs squeezing South Florida families
  • Lower everyday living expenses for working households
  • Fight for an economy and government that serve the public interest

“Take on the housing, insurance, and everyday costs squeezing South Florida families.”

“She's running for Congress to fight for lower costs, great schools, and a government that works for the people — not the powerful.”

Republican Casey Askar

Cut taxes regulations and spending

Askar advocates cutting taxes, reducing regulations, and curbing federal spending to stimulate job growth. He supports extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, dramatically lowering the corporate tax rate, eliminating the Death Tax and marriage penalty, and passing a Tax Limitation Balanced Budget Amendment.

  • Extend and expand all provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
  • Eliminate the Death Tax and marriage penalty while restoring the full child tax credit
  • Dramatically reduce the corporate tax rate to bring manufacturing back to America
  • Pass a Tax Limitation Balanced Budget Amendment to force federal spending discipline

“Slash taxes, regulations, and spending to put jobs and growth first – extend and expand all existing tax cuts, eliminate the Death Tax and marriage penalty, restore the full child tax credit, and dramatically reduce the corporate rate to bring manufacturing back and keep American companies home.”

“Pass a Tax Limitation Balanced Budget Amendment to tackle the national debt and force the fiscal discipline Washington has refused to impose on itself.”

02

Healthcare and Senior Programs

high salience

Askar supports repealing Obamacare and preserving Medicare by eliminating government waste, while Dandiya pledges to protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from spending cuts.

Democratic Pia Dandiya

Protect Social Security and Medicare

Dandiya pledges to safeguard federal entitlement and healthcare programs, promising to protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from budget cuts or structural changes.

  • Protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from spending reductions
  • Preserve safety-net benefits for seniors, low-income families, and vulnerable residents

“Protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the veterans who served us.”

Republican Casey Askar

Repeal Obamacare preserve entitlement programs

Askar advocates for completely repealing Obamacare while preserving Medicare and Medicaid by targeting government waste and fraud. He also supports Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) policies for physical and mental healthcare.

  • End Obamacare once and for all
  • Crack down on government waste and fraud to preserve Medicaid and Medicare
  • Implement Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) initiatives for health outcomes

“End Obamacare once and for all.”

“By cracking down on government waste and fraud, we will be able to preserve Medicaid and Medicare for generations to come.”

03

Education

medium salience

Askar emphasizes parental rights, mandatory civics, and bathroom restrictions in schools, whereas Dandiya focuses on strengthening public schools drawing on her background as a teacher and principal.

Democratic Pia Dandiya

Strengthen and invest public schools

Dandiya focuses on strengthening public schools and expanding educational opportunity, highlighting her career experience as a former classroom teacher, Harlem school principal, and White House Fellow at the Department of Education.

  • Strengthen public schools across South Florida communities
  • Utilize background as a former teacher, principal, and White House Fellow to guide federal education policy

“Pia was born and raised in Palm Beach County to parents who emigrated from India in pursuit of a better life. She began her career as a teacher and became a high-performing school principal in Harlem.”

Republican Casey Askar

Defend parental rights in education

Askar advocates for parental rights in deciding how children are educated, mandatory civics instruction in schools, and restrictions prohibiting biological males from using female school restrooms.

  • Protect and defend parental rights in educational decision-making
  • Require mandatory civics education in schools
  • Bar biological boys from accessing girls' school bathrooms

“Because our children are the future of our republic, we must protect and defend parental rights in education.”

“Biological boys do not belong in girl’s bathrooms.”

04

Government Reform and Governance

medium salience

Askar supports enacting federal term limits to curb career politicians, while Dandiya advocates putting people over politics through bipartisan problem-solving.

Democratic Pia Dandiya

Put people over politics

Dandiya advocates for collaborative governance focused on practical problem-solving over partisan fighting and political posturing.

  • Prioritize practical policy solutions over partisan conflict
  • Focus government action on serving citizens rather than special interests

“Less fighting, more solving. Real solutions over partisan fights.”

Republican Casey Askar

Enact federal term limits

Askar positions himself as a business leader and non-career politician who strongly supports federal term limits to stop career legislators from enriching themselves in office.

  • Enact federal term limits for members of Congress
  • Leverage non-career business experience to serve in Washington

“Americans are sick and tired of career legislators that enrich themselves instead of serving the people who elected them. That's why I'm a strong believer in federal term limits.”

05

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Deport illegal aliens secure borders

Askar calls for continuing the deportation of criminal illegal aliens, securing all U.S. borders and ports of entry, and maintaining President Trump's merit-based immigration policies.

  • Deport criminal illegal aliens and secure all U.S. points of entry
  • Maintain President Trump's merit-based America First immigration policies

“We must continue to deport criminal illegal aliens and secure our borders, and all Points of Entry into the U.S.”

“President Trump’s merit-based America First immigration policy needs to be kept in place.”

06

Energy and Domestic Production

medium salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Expand domestic fossil nuclear energy

Askar advocates unleashing domestic energy production by expanding oil, natural gas, nuclear power, and clean coal to power the economy and reduce reliance on foreign oil.

  • Expand domestic production of oil, natural gas, nuclear energy, and clean coal
  • Reduce reliance on foreign energy sources to strengthen national security

“We must unleash U.S. domestic energy production to power our economy and national security in order to reduce our reliance on foreign oil.”

07

Law Enforcement and Public Safety

medium salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Protect police from activist judges

Askar opposes restrictions on police officers and calls for protecting law enforcement personnel from targeting by activist judges and prosecutors.

  • Protect police officers from predatory targeting by activist judges and prosecutors
  • Remove restrictions that impede law enforcement officers from doing their jobs

“Our law enforcement officers need to be protected from predatory targeting by Leftists, activist judges, and prosecutors.”

“Stop handcuffing police officers, let them do their jobs of protecting us and our rights and freedoms.”

08

Foreign Policy and National Defense

medium salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Peace through strength oppose China

Askar advocates pushing back against Chinese aggression globally and in the Western Hemisphere, funding and modernizing the U.S. military, and following President Trump's 'peace through strength' doctrine.

  • Counter Communist Chinese aggression in the Western Hemisphere and globally
  • Fund and modernize the U.S. military
  • Adhere to President Trump's 'peace through strength' national security policy

“The U.S. must continue to push back against the Communist Chinese aggression in the Western Hemisphere and against our America interests around the world.”

09

Election Integrity

low salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Require Real ID voter status checks

Askar advocates securing voting rights through mandatory Real ID requirements and immigration status verification prior to voting.

  • Enforce mandatory Real ID requirements to vote
  • Require immigration status verification for voter eligibility

“Mandatory Real ID and immigration status verification to vote.”

10

Gun Policy and Second Amendment

low salience
Democratic Pia Dandiya No documented position in our sources

Republican Casey Askar

Protect Second Amendment rights

Askar pledges to defend gun ownership and Second Amendment rights in Congress, citing his background as a former U.S. Marine.

  • Protect Second Amendment rights against federal gun restrictions

“As a Congressman, I will protect our 2nd Amendment rights...”

11

Veterans Services

low salience

Democratic Pia Dandiya

Protect veterans and benefits

Dandiya promises to defend military veterans and ensure they receive the federal support and healthcare services earned through their service.

  • Protect federal benefits and healthcare programs for military veterans

“Protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and the veterans who served us.”

Republican Casey Askar No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-22 House Election Winner

56.5% Republicans
43.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 56.5DEMOCRATS 43.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-22 House winner?

58.0% Casey Askar
41.0% Pia Dandiya
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 70.0ASKAR 58.0DANDIYA 41.0PARTY 34.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-22 Republican nominee?

99.0% Casey Askar
1.0% Michael Thompson
1.0% Lateresa Jones

+12 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16ASKAR 99.0BRANDA 1.0CARBONARA 1.0WERTHEIM 1.0COLLINS 1.0KEISER 1.0MEDVEDEVA 1.0AVILA 1.0HASDORFF 1.0ADEIMY 1.0JONES 1.0EVANS 1.0THOMPSON 1.0BURCK 1.0SRADO 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-22 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Pia Dandiya
3.0% Ian Blake
1.0% Victoria Doyle

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DANDIYA 99.0BLAKE 3.0DOYLE 1.0SCHULTZ 1.0EARLEY 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.