Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Safe R

Florida — 19th District

Portrait of Jim Schwartzel

Republican

Jim Schwartzel

In Florida's 19th Congressional District, Democratic nominee Victor Arias faces Republican nominee Jim Schwartzel in the November 3, 2026 general election to succeed incumbent Byron Donalds, who opted to run for governor. Schwartzel, owner of a conservative talk radio station, emerged from a crowded ten-candidate Republican primary, while attorney Victor Arias won the Democratic primary on August 18, 2026. The race hinges on economic relief, water quality and environmental protection, infrastructure, and immigration policy in a solidly conservative district. Major forecasters rate the contest as Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
94.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jim Schwartzel
94.9%
Victor Arias
3.6%
Kalshi ↗
Victor Arias
99.0%
Howard Sapp
1.0%
Jared Kane
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Jim Schwartzel
99.0%
Chris Collins
0.9%
Bob Rommel
0.5%
Jim Oberweis
0.1%
Catalina Lauf
0.1%
Spencer Roach
0.1%
Ola Hawatmeh
0.1%
Madison Cawthorn
0.1%

All markets →

01

Economy & Cost of Living

high salience

Arias focuses on government intervention against price gouging and affordable housing initiatives, whereas Schwartzel prioritizes deregulation, low taxes, and energy independence.

Democratic Victor Arias

Lowers costs and diversifies local economy

Arias advocates for economic relief by targeting inflation, corporate price gouging, and high living costs. He proposes diversifying Southwest Florida's economy to create higher-paying jobs and supporting affordable housing for local workers.

  • Lower grocery, utility, gas, and insurance costs
  • Advocate against corporate price gouging
  • Create affordable housing so workers can live near their jobs
  • Diversify the local economy to build higher-paying careers

“My goal as a candidate for U.S. Congress, District 19 is to create UNITY among Americans to work together for the betterment of the United States. This means diversifying our ECONOMY.”

“Lowering grocery prices, advocating against corporate price gouging, and creating affordable housing so SWFL workers can live where they work.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Promotes tax cuts and deregulation

Schwartzel emphasizes free-market growth, lower taxes, and rolling back federal regulations to curb inflation. He opposes government spending that increases debt and advocates for energy independence to lower costs for Florida families.

  • Enact Trump-style tax cuts and cut burdensome regulations
  • Oppose socialist spending policies driving inflation
  • Restore American energy independence to reduce fuel prices
  • Promote Made in America manufacturing and local small businesses

“I will fight for Trump-style tax cuts that reward hard work and keep businesses in America.”

“He will fight to keep taxes low, eliminate burdensome regulations, and make it easier for small businesses to thrive.”

02

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Schwartzel advocates finishing the border wall and deporting illegal immigrants, while Arias supports legal assistance and fair pathways for immigrants seeking legal status.

Democratic Victor Arias

Supports humane processes and legal pathways

Arias emphasizes treating all human beings with dignity and respect while upholding the rule of law. He supports ensuring legal assistance and fair treatment for immigrants already in the process of seeking legal status.

  • Ensure legal assistance and fair treatment for immigrants applying for legal status
  • Promote humane solutions exercising dignity and respect
  • Uphold the law while assisting those pursuing citizenship

“I would use my knowledge as an Attorney to work together with everyone in UNITY to come up with a humane solution and exercise dignity and respect for all human beings.”

“In addition, those immigrants who have begun the application process for “legal status/pathway to citizenship” deserve the right to be treated fairly, and to have access to legal assistance to complete that process, which was put in place by our United States government.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Advocates strict border enforcement and mass deportations

Schwartzel aligns with President Trump's border agenda, pushing to finish the border wall and deport unauthorized immigrants. He argues that illegal immigration threatens national security and taxpayer resources.

  • Finish the southern border wall
  • Deport illegal immigrants and enforce border security laws
  • Stop the influx of illegal drugs and border crossing
  • Support strictly legal immigration

“Border Security, Law and Order & Strong Foreign Policy - No nation can survive without borders—I will support Trump’s policies to secure the border, deport illegal immigrants, and finish the wall.”

“Jim firmly believes that anyone entering our country illegally and breaking our laws should be sent back to where they came from.”

03

Environment & Water Quality

high salience

Arias calls for federal funding for Everglades restoration and Lake Okeechobee discharge reform to protect the tourism economy, while Schwartzel emphasizes local common-sense water management free from environmental extremist agendas.

Democratic Victor Arias

Funds Everglades restoration and red tide research

Arias champions environmental protection for Southwest Florida's waterways, framing clean water as essential to the local tourism economy. He supports funding Everglades restoration, researching red tide solutions, and reforming Lake Okeechobee discharges.

  • Secure federal funding for Everglades restoration
  • Fund red tide research to combat blooms at the source
  • Enact Lake Okeechobee discharge reforms
  • Protect the district's $3.2B tourism economy

“My goal is to work across the aisles to incorporate policies that will protect our environment through Everglades restoration, red tide research funding, and Lake Okeechobee discharge reforms that safeguard our tourism economy and waterways.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Supports common-sense local water protection

Schwartzel emphasizes protecting local waterways like the Caloosahatchee River and area beaches through common-sense management. He opposes agendas pushed by what he terms environmental extremists, advocating for solutions tailored to community needs.

  • Protect the Caloosahatchee River, beaches, and estuaries
  • Support common-sense water management policies
  • Oppose mandates from environmental extremists and special interest groups

“He’ll support common-sense water management policies that prioritize clean water, healthy estuaries, and the needs of our community—not the agendas of environmental extremists or special interest groups.”

04

Government Reform & Ethics

medium salience

Schwartzel advocates for strict congressional term limits to replace career politicians, whereas Arias focuses on institutional committee oversight and reclaiming legislative responsibility.

Democratic Victor Arias

Reclaims congressional legislative authority and ethics

Arias seeks to restore trust in Congress by strengthening internal committee oversight and preventing corruption. He advocates for Congress to proactively craft clear legislation rather than relying on court rulings.

  • Reclaim congressional responsibility to craft detailed legislation
  • Work through Ethics, Budget, and Judicial committees to curb corruption
  • Maintain transparency and integrity in governance

“As a candidate for U.S. Congress, District 19, I will work in UNITY with my fellow congressional colleagues to reclaim Congress’ responsibility to craft legislation on every single bill.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Enacts strict congressional term limits

Schwartzel supports strict term limits for members of Congress to dismantle career politician networks in Washington. He advocates for business leadership over federal bureaucracy to drain the swamp.

  • Enact strict congressional term limits
  • End career politician dominance and special interest influence
  • Cut federal spending and demand financial transparency

“I will fight for term limits to end the ruling class of career politicians who are more beholden to special interests than the voters in their district.”

05

Infrastructure & Transportation

medium salience

Arias champions broad infrastructure investments including broadband and hurricane preparedness, while Schwartzel focuses primarily on road funding to reduce traffic congestion.

Democratic Victor Arias

Funds local roads, broadband, and disaster prep

Arias emphasizes bipartisan negotiation to bring federal funds to District 19 for physical and digital infrastructure. His platform highlights roads, bridges, broadband expansion, and hurricane disaster preparedness.

  • Pass infrastructure funding for roads, bridges, and broadband
  • Secure resources for hurricane disaster preparedness
  • Work across party lines to negotiate local projects

“Working across the aisle to pass infrastructure funding for roads, bridges, broadband, and hurricane disaster preparedness for FL-19.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Secures funding to ease traffic congestion

Schwartzel focuses on local transportation needs in Southwest Florida, pledging to secure funding for road improvements. He aims to ease traffic congestion and enhance safety for residents and emergency services.

  • Secure infrastructure funding for road improvements
  • Complete projects that reduce local traffic congestion
  • Enhance transportation safety for families and emergency services

“Jim will push for funding to complete the projects necessary to reduce traffic congestion and enhance safety, making it easier for families, businesses, and emergency services to move throughout the region.”

06

Veterans' Services

medium salience

Both candidates support improving veteran care, with Arias targeting VA red tape for 60,000 local veterans and Schwartzel emphasizing healthcare access and job opportunities.

Democratic Victor Arias

Expands VA healthcare and cuts bureaucracy

Arias focuses on improving support for District 19's 60,000+ veterans by streamlining VA administrative processes. He advocates for expanding healthcare access and delivering earned benefits.

  • Slash VA bureaucracy and red tape
  • Expand healthcare access for veterans
  • Ensure benefits reach over 60,000 FL-19 veterans

“Slashing VA red tape, expanding healthcare access, and ensuring 60,000+ FL-19 veterans receive the benefits they earned through service.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Guarantees healthcare and job opportunities

Schwartzel commits to upholding respect and services for veterans. He emphasizes healthcare availability, employment transitions, and federal support for former military members.

  • Ensure veterans receive quality healthcare
  • Expand employment opportunities for veterans
  • Protect benefits and foster respect for military service

“I will support our Veterans; I am dedicated to ensuring they receive the healthcare, employment opportunities, and respect they've earned.”

07

Healthcare & Senior Services

medium salience

Democratic Victor Arias

Lowers prescription prices and protects Medicare

Arias outlines healthcare policies centered on senior citizens, proposing to lower out-of-pocket costs and protect Medicare. He supports expanding Medicare drug price negotiations and banning surprise medical billing.

  • Expand Medicare drug price negotiation
  • Cap out-of-pocket prescription costs for seniors
  • End surprise medical billing

“Expanding Medicare drug price negotiation, capping out-of-pocket prescription costs, and ending surprise medical billing for our seniors.”

Republican Jim Schwartzel No documented position in our sources
08

Education & Cultural Issues

medium salience
Democratic Victor Arias No documented position in our sources

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Opposes woke curriculum and supports school choice

Schwartzel opposes progressive social programs and gender ideology in schools, calling for defunding institutions that promote them. He advocates for parental rights in education, school choice, and banning biological men from women's sports.

  • Defund schools pushing gender ideology and leftist propaganda
  • Promote school choice and parental control in education
  • Oppose DEI mandates in schools and workplaces
  • Prohibit biological men from competing in women's sports

“I will cut funding to schools that push gender ideology and leftist propaganda and support parents' right to choose the best schools for their children.”

“Jim stands firmly against biological men competing in women’s sports and believes parents—not bureaucrats—should have the final say in how their children are raised and educated.”

09

Gun Rights & Constitutional Liberties

low salience
Democratic Victor Arias No documented position in our sources

Republican Jim Schwartzel

Defends Second Amendment and constitutional rights

Schwartzel pledges to defend individual constitutional liberties from government overreach. He explicitly highlights protecting free speech, religious freedom, and Second Amendment gun rights.

  • Protect Second Amendment gun rights
  • Defend free speech and religious freedom
  • Oppose federal mandates and heavy-handed government control

“From protecting free speech and religious freedom to preserving the right to keep and bear arms, Jim will never back down from defending the God-given liberties that make our nation the freest in the world.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-19 House Election Winner

94.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 94.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-19 House winner?

94.9% Jim Schwartzel
3.6% Victor Arias
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SCHWARTZEL 94.9PARTY 90.5PARTY 8.4ARIAS 3.6

Kalshi ↗

FL-19 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Victor Arias
1.0% Howard Sapp
1.0% Jared Kane
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16ARIAS 99.0SAPP 1.0KANE 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-19 Republican nominee?

99.0% Jim Schwartzel
0.9% Chris Collins
0.5% Bob Rommel

+5 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SCHWARTZEL 99.0COLLINS 0.9ROMMEL 0.5LAUF 0.1CAWTHORN 0.1ROACH 0.1HAWATMEH 0.1OBERWEIS 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.