Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Safe R

Florida — 17th District

Portrait of Matthew Montavon

Democrat

Matthew Montavon

Florida's 17th Congressional District 2026 general election features six-term Republican incumbent Greg Steube against Democratic nominee Matthew Montavon, who won the August 18, 2026 Democratic primary. The race hinges on a sharp ideological divide between Steube's conservative voting record—emphasizing strict border enforcement, tax protection, and fossil fuel expansion—and Montavon's platform focused on federal agency oversight, ICE reform, affordable housing, and universal healthcare. Major nonpartisan rating outlets, including Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate the seat as Solid/Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
92.5%
Democrats
7.5%
Kalshi ↗
Greg Steube
95.8%
Matthew Montavon
8.7%
Kalshi ↗
Matthew Montavon
99.0%
Allen Spence
1.0%

All markets →

01

Immigration and border security

high salience

Montavon advocates eliminating ICE in its current form and offering pathways to citizenship, whereas Steube consistently votes for mandatory detention, stricter border controls, and expanded deportation grounds.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Advocates ICE reform and citizenship pathway

Montavon advocates for reforming federal immigration enforcement, including eliminating ICE in its current form and aligning enforcement with international human rights standards. He supports creating a comprehensive pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and long-term undocumented immigrants while restricting detention to a measure of last resort.

  • Advocates eliminating ICE in its current form
  • Supports a comprehensive citizenship pathway for Dreamers and long-term undocumented residents
  • Proposes restricting immigration detention to a measure of last resort under human rights standards
  • Demands banning law enforcement agents from wearing masks or concealing identities on duty

“I will work to reform immigration enforcement including advocating for the elimination of ICE in its current form and bring US immigration enforcement into line with international human rights standards.”

Republican Greg Steube

Supports strict border enforcement and deportation

Steube supports strict border enforcement measures, enhanced detention, and expanded deportation grounds for unauthorized immigrants. He has voted for mandatory detention for certain criminal offenses, expanded DUI deportation grounds, and mandatory employer eligibility verification.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of unauthorized immigrants arrested for burglary or theft
  • Voted Yea on the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act (H.R.875) making DUI grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R.2) to limit asylum eligibility and mandate E-Verify
  • Voted Yea to impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
02

Government oversight and democracy

high salience

Montavon advocates protecting federal agency independence and expanding voting access, while Steube supports requiring proof of citizenship to vote and limiting nationwide federal court injunctions.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports executive limits and agency oversight

Montavon advocates for strengthening democratic institutions and placing statutory limits on executive emergency powers. He supports protecting federal agencies, Inspectors General, and the Department of Justice from political interference while pushing for campaign finance reform and voting access.

  • Proposes legislation to ensure DOJ independence from political interference
  • Supports statutory limits on executive emergency powers, including tariffs
  • Advocates for campaign finance reform, banning gerrymandering, and protecting voting access
  • Pushes for stronger ethics standards and anti-profiteering rules for federal officials

“I will work to end the abuse of executive power, establishing legislation to ensure the independence of the U.S. Department of Justice from political interference and protect Inspectors General, Assistant Attorneys General, and federal regulatory board members from unlawful dismissals.”

Republican Greg Steube

Supports voter ID and judicial restrictions

Steube supports stricter voter identification requirements for federal elections and restrictions on federal court injunctions. He voted for legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote and limiting district court injunctions to immediate parties.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R.22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections
  • Voted Yea on the No Rogue Rulings Act (H.R.1526) limiting federal court injunctions to immediate parties in a case
  • Voted Nay on the For the People Act of 2021 (H.R.1)
03

Healthcare

medium salience

Montavon supports protecting the ACA and transitioning to universal healthcare, whereas Steube voted against federal legislation that lowered drug costs and extended ACA subsidies.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports ACA and universal healthcare

Montavon advocates protecting existing safety net programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and the Affordable Care Act in the short term. In the long term, he pushes for universal healthcare to guarantee medical affordability for all Americans.

  • Pushes for universal healthcare as a long-term legislative goal
  • Supports defending the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid
  • Focuses on preventing healthcare costs from causing financial instability for families

“I will work to make healthcare affordable and accessible by protecting the Affordable Care Act, Medicare, and Medicaid in the short-term while pushing for universal healthcare in the long term.”

Republican Greg Steube

Opposes federal health spending expansions

Steube opposes federal healthcare expansions and subsidy extensions. He voted against major legislative packages that extended Affordable Care Act subsidies and allowed Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices.

  • Voted Nay on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which extended ACA subsidies and enabled Medicare drug price negotiations
04

Economy, inflation, and housing

medium salience

Montavon favors direct federal support for affordable housing and inflation relief for working families, while Steube relies on tax pledges, federal spending caps, and strict work requirements.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports affordable housing and middle-class relief

Montavon emphasizes creating an economy that works for all income levels by addressing wealth inequality and rising living costs. He supports federal investments in affordable housing construction, renter assistance, and economic policies aimed at lowering grocery and utility expenses.

  • Advocates federal support for constructing affordable housing units and supporting renters
  • Proposes economic policies to control inflation on everyday essentials like groceries and utilities
  • Focuses on reducing wealth inequality and supporting working-class families

“I believe we need to make choices that will provide for an economy for all, for universal health care, for immigration justice, for combating climate change and protecting the environment, and for a women’s right to choose.”

Republican Greg Steube

Supports spending controls and tax relief

Steube favors spending restraint, tax protection, and debt cap controls to manage the economy. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing to oppose tax increases and voted for spending limits and work requirements.

  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax hikes
  • Voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1, 2025) addressing debt limits and tax policy
  • Voted Yea on the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (H.R.2811) capping spending and expanding work requirements
  • Voted Nay on the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021
05

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Montavon supports protecting a woman's right to choose, whereas Steube publicly opposed Florida's 2024 constitutional amendment for abortion rights.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports reproductive freedom and abortion rights

Montavon views reproductive freedom as a fundamental right. He supports defending a woman's right to choose and make personal healthcare decisions.

  • Supports protecting a woman's right to choose and reproductive healthcare autonomy

Republican Greg Steube

Opposes abortion access

Steube consistently opposes abortion access and constitutional protections for reproductive choice. He publicly opposed Florida's 2024 Amendment 4 constitutional ballot initiative.

  • Opposed Florida Amendment 4 (Right to Abortion Initiative) in 2024
06

Climate change and energy

medium salience

Montavon supports federal investment in renewable energy to fight climate change, while Steube votes to increase domestic oil, gas, and coal production.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports green economy and clean energy

Montavon advocates for federal action to combat climate change and protect the environment. He supports funding a national transition toward renewable energy and a green economy.

  • Supports federal funding for transitioning to renewable energy
  • Pushes for environmental protections and green economy initiatives

Republican Greg Steube

Supports domestic fossil fuel production

Steube prioritizes expanding domestic fossil fuel production and rolling back green energy tax incentives. He voted for major energy legislation aimed at boosting oil, gas, and coal output.

  • Voted Yea on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R.1) to increase oil, natural gas, and coal production
  • Voted Yea on H.R.2811 seeking to repeal green energy tax credits
07

Gun policy

low salience

Montavon supports federal gun safety legislation, whereas Steube voted against prohibiting semiautomatic assault weapons.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports gun safety legislation

Montavon identifies gun safety as a public policy passion and supports legislative measures to reduce gun violence.

  • Lists gun safety as a key public policy passion and priority

Republican Greg Steube

Opposes gun control restrictions

Steube opposes federal firearm restrictions and assault weapon bans. He voted against assault weapons ban legislation in the House.

  • Voted Nay on the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 (H.R.1808)
08

Civil rights and sports participation

low salience

Montavon advocates for broad civil rights protections, while Steube voted to prohibit transgender females from participating in women's school sports.

Democratic Matthew Montavon

Supports civil rights protections

Montavon advocates expanding civil rights protections and respecting individual liberties for all citizens.

  • Supports expanding civil rights protections and respecting personal liberties

Republican Greg Steube

Opposes transgender female participation in women's sports

Steube supports federal restrictions on transgender participation in women's athletic programs. He voted for legislation prohibiting individuals assigned male sex at birth from competing in female sports programs.

  • Voted Yea on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R.28)

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-17 House Election Winner

92.5% Republicans
7.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 92.5DEMOCRATS 7.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-17 House winner?

95.8% Greg Steube
8.7% Matthew Montavon
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 96.8STEUBE 95.8MONTAVON 8.7PARTY 4.6

Kalshi ↗

FL-17 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Matthew Montavon
1.0% Allen Spence
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16MONTAVON 99.0SPENCE 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.