Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Likely R

Florida — 15th District

Incumbent Republican Laurel Lee faces Democratic challenger Robert People in the general election for Florida's 15th Congressional District on November 3, 2026. The matchup hinges on contrasting visions for the economy, immigration enforcement, Social Security, clean energy, and reproductive rights, with Lee highlighting her legislative record in Congress and People emphasizing affordability and social safety net protections. Major rating agencies classify the district as safe or solid Republican, including Cook Political Report (Solid Republican), Decision Desk (Likely Republican), Inside Elections (Solid Republican), and Sabato's Crystal Ball (Safe Republican).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
92.6%
Democrats
6.6%
Kalshi ↗
Laurel Lee
91.1%
Robert People
8.9%
Kalshi ↗
Laurel Lee
99.0%
Steve Champion
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Robert People
99.0%
Chris Irizarry
2.0%
Jose Engell
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Taxes

high salience

Lee advocates for growing the economy through broad tax cuts and spending reductions, while People proposes taxing billionaires, ending tariff wars, and enacting corporate and housing affordability regulations.

Democratic Robert People

Supports taxing billionaires and corporate accountability

People advocates for tax reforms including taxing billionaires, ending tariff wars, and cutting war spending. His affordability agenda includes down payment assistance for homebuyers, utility rate reforms, regulating corporate home purchases, and banning dynamic pricing in grocery stores.

  • Proposes taxing billionaires and ending tariff wars
  • Supports regulations on corporate purchasing of existing homes
  • Proposes utility rate reforms and banning dynamic pricing at grocery stores
  • Supports down payment and closing cost assistance for first-time homebuyers

“Tax the billionaires • End the tariff war”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports cutting taxes and government spending

Lee advocates for growing the economy through tax cuts, deregulation, and eliminating wasteful federal spending. She supported permanent tax relief provisions, preserving small business deductions, doubling the child tax credit, and eliminating taxes on tips and overtime.

  • Preserving the 20% small business deduction and doubling child tax credit
  • Eliminating taxes on tips and overtime
  • Voted Yea on the H.R. 1 reconciliation bill
  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge

“She championed the permanent tax relief provisions recently enacted by Congress, including protections for middle-class families, preservation of the 20% small business deduction, and a doubled child tax credit.”

02

Immigration and Border Security

high salience

Lee advocates for $46 billion in border wall spending and deportation enforcement, whereas People focuses on requiring ICE agents to identify themselves and humanely treating detainees.

Democratic Robert People

Supports ICE identification and humane detainee treatment

People advocates requiring ICE agents to fully identify themselves and ensure detainees are treated humanely. He also proposes the destruction of the 'Alligator Alley' detention facility.

  • Requires ICE agents to identify themselves fully
  • Calls for humane treatment of immigration detainees
  • Proposes destruction of the 'Alligator Alley' detention facility

“requiring ICE agents to identify themselves FULLY and to treat detainees as human beings (unlike what is taking place now), proposing the destruction of the "Alligator Alley" detention facility”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports completing border wall and strict enforcement

Lee supports completing the southern border wall, increasing Border Patrol staffing, and expanding deportation operations. She served as an impeachment manager against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and supported the Laken Riley Act and Secure the Border Act.

  • Voted for over $46 billion for border wall construction and Border Patrol expansion
  • Served as an impeachment manager against DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5)
  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2)

“She supports finishing the Trump Border Wall and deporting illegal immigrants who enter the country unlawfully, and she supports the border patrol agents who are under attack by the radical left.”

03

Social Security

medium salience

People proposes eliminating the Social Security income tax cap to protect the trust fund, while Lee voted for legislative adjustments to benefit reductions for government pension recipients.

Democratic Robert People

Supports eliminating Social Security tax cap

People proposes protecting and reforming Social Security by eliminating the income tax cap for high earners. He also advocates returning excess funds to trust funds and reforming disability case processing.

  • Eliminate the Social Security income tax cap
  • Monthly income above the 70th percentile adds to Social Security benefit at a 5% rate
  • Reinvest excess funds in the Social Security Trust Fund
  • Eliminate the SSI marriage penalty

“I want to protect Social Security. However, I want to do more than simply say this. I want to propose that full amounts be returned to rightful owners.”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports reforming Social Security benefit offsets

Lee voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023, which reduced benefit reductions for individuals receiving other state or local government pensions.

  • Voted Yea on the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82)

“The Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82) was a bill passed by the 118th Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden (D) on January 5, 2025, that reduced Social Security benefits for individuals who received other pensions from state or local governments.”

04

Energy and Environment

medium salience

Lee prioritizes domestic fossil fuel expansion and energy dominance, while People targets a 100% clean energy grid by 2040 and ending fossil fuel subsidies.

Democratic Robert People

Supports 100% clean grid and ending fossil fuel subsidies

People advocates for transition to clean energy with a target of a 100% clean grid by 2040. He supports ending fossil fuel subsidies, expanding wind, solar, and battery storage investments, and implementing carbon pricing with household dividends.

  • Targets 100% clean grid by 2040
  • Calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies
  • Supports carbon pricing with household dividends
  • Advocates restoring EPA standards and Endangered Species protections

“Federal clean energy standards targeting 100% clean grid by 2040”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports American energy dominance and fossil fuels

Lee advocates for domestic energy independence through increased oil, natural gas, and coal production, reviving the Keystone Pipeline, and reducing permitting restrictions. She voted for the Lower Energy Costs Act.

  • Supports reviving the Keystone Pipeline
  • Voted Yea on Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1)
  • Supports increasing domestic production of oil, natural gas, and coal

“Ensure American Energy DOMINANCE”

05

Reproductive Rights and Healthcare

medium salience

People supports Medicare for All and reversing abortion restrictions, whereas Lee opposes abortion and supports pro-life policies.

Democratic Robert People

Supports Medicare for All and abortion rights

People supports Medicare for All and reversing restrictions on abortion and reproductive rights. He also advocates expanding Medicare to cover dental and hearing care, funding women's health research, and reforming care delivery for women.

  • Supports Medicare for All
  • Advocates reversing harmful abortion policies
  • Supports expanding Medicare to cover dental and hearing care
  • Calls for funding women's health research

“I want to start by reversing the harmful policies in place, especially regarding abortion.”

Republican Laurel Lee

Opposes abortion and supports pro-family policies

Lee identifies as pro-life and pro-family, supporting policies that protect unborn life and religious liberty.

  • Identifies as pro-life and pro-family

“Laurel is pro-life and pro-family.”

06

Education

medium salience

People proposes federally incentivizing increased teacher salaries, while Lee supports education savings accounts and expanding technical training grants.

Democratic Robert People

Supports raising teacher salaries nationwide

People advocates for increasing teacher salaries nationwide, starting with District 15 by shifting county school budget funds from wasteful spending to teacher pay. He also supports universal school breakfast and lunch and universal pre-K.

  • Proposes increasing teacher salaries nationwide
  • Calls for shifting school district budget funds to teacher pay
  • Supports universal school breakfast and lunch
  • Supports universal pre-K and affordable childcare

“I want to propose increasing teacher salaries nationwide. It will start with District 15, and I will focus on the county school budgets to shift funds from wasteful spending to paying teachers what they deserve.”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports expanding education savings accounts and technical education

Lee supports expanding education savings accounts and expanding Pell grants for technical education and job training through the PELL Act. She also voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act.

  • Supports expanding education savings accounts
  • Supports the PELL Act for technical education Pell grants
  • Voted Yea on Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)

“Recognizing the value of skilled trades and hands-on careers, Laurel supports the PELL Act, expanding Pell grants for technical education and job training.”

07

Foreign Policy and Defense

medium salience

People pledges to stop arms shipments to Israel and cut war spending, while Lee emphasizes strengthening national defense and military readiness.

Democratic Robert People

Supports stopping arms shipments to Israel and cutting war spending

People advocates for cutting military and war spending and stopping American arms shipments to Israel. He pledges not to accept AIPAC funding.

  • Votes to stop American arms shipments to Israel
  • Pledges not to accept AIPAC funds
  • Calls for cutting war spending

“Robert People will vote to stop American arms shipments to Israel.”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports military readiness and veteran services

Lee advocates for strengthening national defense and supporting veterans and military families. She co-introduced the Supporting Military Voters Act to improve absentee voting for deployed service members.

  • Co-introduced Supporting Military Voters Act
  • Supported NDAA legislation (H.R. 2670 and H.R. 8070)
  • Supports expanding veteran mental health care and job placement programs

“Strengthen our Great Military/Veterans”

08

Government Accountability and Election Integrity

medium salience

Lee emphasizes election integrity laws like proof of citizenship for voting, while People advocates for constitutional amendments to hold the president accountable and overturning Citizens United.

Democratic Robert People

Supports presidential accountability constitutional amendments

People advocates for government transparency, overturning Citizens United, and amending the Constitution to hold the President accountable outside of Congress. He also supports term limits for members of Congress.

  • Supports constitutional amendments to hold the President accountable
  • Calls for overturning Citizens United
  • Supports congressional term limits
  • Advocates for government financial transparency

“proposing amendments to the Constitution to allow the President of the United States to be held accountable for behavior by means OTHER than from Congress”

Republican Laurel Lee

Supports voter ID, election integrity, and term limits

As former Florida Secretary of State, Lee champions election integrity measures, including voter proof-of-citizenship requirements. She signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge and voted for the SAVE Act.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22)
  • Signed U.S. Term Limits pledge
  • Promotes state election integrity and voter registration security

“where she worked to strengthen Florida’s election integrity and cyber security and increase voter registration and participation to ensure that Florida has free and fair elections.”

09

Second Amendment

low salience
Democratic Robert People No documented position in our sources

Republican Laurel Lee

Opposes gun control and protects Second Amendment

Lee is a strong defender of the Second Amendment and opposes gun control measures on law-abiding citizens.

  • Opposes new federal gun control regulations
  • Pledges to protect constitutional rights of gun owners

“Laurel is a strong supporter of the Second Amendment. She will always fight to protect the constitutional rights of law-abiding gun owners from radical gun control liberals.”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-15 House Election Winner

92.6% Republicans
6.6% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 92.6DEMOCRATS 6.6

Kalshi ↗

FL-15 House winner?

91.1% Laurel Lee
8.9% Robert People
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16LEE 91.1PARTY 87.0PARTY 11.0PEOPLE 8.9

Kalshi ↗

FL-15 Republican nominee?

99.0% Laurel Lee
1.0% Steve Champion
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16LEE 99.0CHAMPION 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-15 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Robert People
2.0% Chris Irizarry
1.0% Jose Engell
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PEOPLE 99.0IRIZARRY 2.0ENGELL 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.