2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Likely R
Florida — 12th District
In Florida's 12th Congressional District, long-serving Republican incumbent Gus M. Bilirakis faces Democratic nominee Kimberly Overman, a former Hillsborough County Commissioner and financial advisor. The district boundaries were redrawn for the 2026 election cycle, bringing parts of western Hillsborough County into the district alongside Pasco County. Major handicappers rate the contest as Solid or Safe Republican (Likely Republican by Sabato's Crystal Ball). The matchup focuses heavily on skyrocketing property insurance rates, federal disaster recovery, healthcare affordability, and veteran services.
The pulse
updated Sep 16Cost of living and housing
high salienceBilirakis advocates for tax deductions on property insurance premiums and income tax eliminations, while Overman supports direct federal funding for affordable housing construction and treating housing as core infrastructure.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports federal housing investments and cost reduction
Overman emphasizes direct federal investment in affordable housing construction, transit, and cost controls to assist working families facing rising expenses. Drawing on her experience as a financial advisor and county commissioner, she views housing, child care, and transit as essential economic infrastructure.
- Advocates for federal investment in affordable housing development and rental assistance.
- Supports treating housing, public transit, and child care as essential national infrastructure.
- Proposes federal measures to lower property insurance premiums and support fair wages.
“In Congress, she’ll fight for real solutions to rising costs, including affordable housing, infrastructure investment, and fair wages.”
“She believes housing, transit, and child care are essential infrastructure—and should be treated as such.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports property insurance tax deductions and tax cuts
Bilirakis focuses on addressing high living costs through targeted tax relief for homeowners, seniors, and working families. He introduced legislation to create a tax deduction for property insurance premiums and delivered federal funding for local affordable housing projects.
- Introduced the Homeowners Premium Tax Reduction Act providing up to a $10,000 above-the-line deduction for homeowners insurance.
- Co-sponsored eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, alongside a $6,000 senior tax exemption.
- Secured federal dollars for affordable housing communities like Vincent House and Magnolia Oaks.
“Taking on skyrocketing homeowners insurance with the Homeowners Premium Tax Reduction Act, up to a $10,000 above-the-line deduction.”
“No tax on tips. No tax on overtime.”
Healthcare
high salienceBilirakis highlights targeted federal appropriations for local cancer research and community health clinics, whereas Overman advocates for broad federal healthcare expansion, drug price controls, and caregiver assistance.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports expanding healthcare coverage and lowering drug costs
Overman considers healthcare a fundamental right and champions expanding coverage, lowering prescription drug prices, and strengthening mental health resources. She emphasizes supporting family caregivers based on her personal caregiving experience.
- Advocates for expanding healthcare coverage options and lowering prescription drug costs.
- Prioritizes expanding mental health services and dedicated resources for caregivers.
- Pledges to protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare.
“Healthcare isn’t a luxury—it’s a right. Kimberly will work to expand access to care, lower prescription costs, and defend reproductive rights and mental health services.”
“My priorities are clear: lowering costs for families, protecting access to healthcare, strengthening Social Security and Medicare, and supporting caregivers.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports targeted federal healthcare funding and reform
Bilirakis focuses his healthcare efforts on securing federal funding for medical research, mental health centers, and telehealth access for seniors. He serves on the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee and champions local healthcare projects.
- Secured $4 million for Moffitt Cancer Center and nearly $6 million for cancer research at USF.
- Delivered $2 million to expand mental health services at Federally Qualified Health Centers.
- Authored the EASE Act to extend telehealth access for seniors and supported KidCare reauthorization.
“Seniors, veterans, and the kids next door.”
“$2M to expand mental-health services at Federally Qualified Health Centers.”
Veterans and military families
medium salienceBilirakis relies on his extensive legislative leadership on the House Veterans' Affairs Committee and direct local VA facility funding, while Overman emphasizes expanding civilian transition programs and mental health resources.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports expanded VA healthcare and transition programs
Overman champions comprehensive federal support for the district's military population. Her platform focuses on improving VA medical care, expanding mental health services, and enhancing job training for military transitions.
- Calls for improved access to VA medical services and mental health care.
- Supports expanded job training and transitional programs for veterans returning to civilian life.
- Advocates for dedicated housing support and economic protections for military families.
“Florida’s 12th is home to thousands of veterans. Kimberly will ensure they receive the benefits, healthcare, and respect they’ve earned.”
“She’ll fight to improve access to VA care, mental health services, job training, and transitional support for returning veterans.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports expanding veteran healthcare benefits and housing
Bilirakis, a senior member and former Vice Chair of the House Veterans' Affairs Committee, places veteran care at the center of his legislative work. He has led efforts to expand toxic exposure benefits, improve VA hospitals, and construct low-income veteran housing.
- Co-sponsored the Major Richard Star Act for combat-injured veterans.
- Secured federal funding for Magnolia Oaks Veterans Housing and over $5 million in FY26 improvements for the James A. Haley VA Hospital.
- Pushed bipartisan legislation to remedy toxic burn pit exposure benefits for veterans.
“Standing with our veterans, delivering healthcare, housing, and job opportunities.”
“I became a Member of the Veterans Affairs Committee because helping our nation's heroes is my highest priority in Congress.”
Border security and immigration
medium salienceBilirakis supports strict enforcement measures, mandatory detention, and opposing amnesty, whereas Overman favors balanced immigration reform focused on economic needs and family stability.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports balanced immigration reform and rule of law
Overman supports practical, balanced immigration reform that addresses system flaws while protecting families and economic stability. She emphasizes enforcing the rule of law while keeping communities safe and humane.
- Advocates reforming broken immigration policies to reduce family hardship and community strain.
- Supports balanced, practical solutions that strengthen the economy while maintaining safety.
- Emphasizes upholding the rule of law alongside humane treatment.
“I’m also committed to addressing broken immigration policies that are hurting families, straining communities, and failing to uphold the rule of law, while supporting balanced, practical solutions that strengthen our economy and keep communities safe.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports strict border enforcement and opposes amnesty
Bilirakis advocates for strict southern border enforcement, choking off cartel drug trafficking, and enhancing deportation laws for illegal immigrants who commit crimes. He consistently opposes amnesty or legal status for undocumented residents.
- Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring detention of undocumented individuals arrested for theft or burglary.
- Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring proof of citizenship to register for federal elections.
- Strongly opposes amnesty and advocates securing the southern border to block fentanyl smuggling.
“Securing the southern border to choke off cartels driving fentanyl into our communities.”
“Gus strongly opposes illegal immigration and does not believe we should give amnesty or any other reward to those who have broken our nation’s immigration laws”
Disaster recovery and climate resilience
medium salienceBilirakis emphasizes securing post-disaster federal recovery funds and local flood studies, while Overman champions proactive climate resilience and infrastructure investments to keep insurance costs down.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports resilient infrastructure and climate mitigation
Overman links climate change directly to local affordability, arguing that skipping flood mitigation and clean water infrastructure leads to higher insurance premiums and repair costs. She supports investments in resilient infrastructure and protecting natural corridors.
- Advocates for federal funding for local drainage, flood mitigation, and clean water infrastructure.
- Supports protecting the Florida Wildlife Corridor and advancing environmental justice.
- Frames proactive climate resilience as a necessity to reduce long-term costs for working families.
“Kimberly understands that climate resilience is affordability: when communities skip investment in drainage, flood mitigation, and clean water infrastructure, families pay through higher premiums and repair bills.”
“In Congress, she’ll fight for resilient infrastructure, protection of the Florida Wildlife Corridor, and environmental justice for the communities hit hardest”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports federal disaster recovery funding for local communities
Bilirakis focuses on delivering immediate federal disaster relief dollars and flood mitigation studies for constituents recovering from severe hurricanes. He highlights major federal recovery allocations secured for Pasco County following recent storms.
- Delivered $585 million in federal disaster-recovery dollars flowing into Pasco County after Hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- Secured federal support for the Anclote Basin flooding study in West Pasco.
- Delivered over $20 million in federal funding for local infrastructure and community recovery.
“$585M in federal disaster-recovery dollars flowing into Pasco County after Helene & Milton.”
Abortion and reproductive rights
medium salienceOverman explicitly campaigns to restore and protect abortion access nationwide, whereas Bilirakis aligns with conservative voting records restricting abortion and gender-related policies.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports restoring and protecting abortion rights
Overman strongly supports protecting reproductive freedom and codifying abortion rights nationwide. She believes healthcare and reproductive choices belong to individuals rather than government officials.
- Pledges to restore and protect the right to abortion and full reproductive healthcare access.
- Endorsed by reproductive freedom organizations including Moms Demand Action and Ruth's List.
- Frames abortion access as an essential component of healthcare and personal freedom.
“Kimberly trusts people to make their own healthcare decisions. She will fight to restore and protect the right to abortion and access to reproductive care—because these decisions belong to individuals, not politicians”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Opposes federal abortion expansion and supports conservative social policy
Bilirakis holds a conservative record on social issues, voting for restrictions on gender participation in athletics and aligning with conservative platform stances.
- Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
- Endorsed by conservative organizations including Guardians of Liberty and President Donald Trump.
Public safety and crime
medium salienceBilirakis emphasizes law-enforcement-first strategies and school safety grants, while Overman advocates pairing police support with mental health services and youth intervention programs.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports balanced safety through policing and community investments
Overman supports a balanced approach to public safety that combines effective law enforcement with investments in prevention. Her platform focuses on youth engagement, mental health care, and community crime prevention.
- Advocates pairing strong law enforcement with mental health and youth intervention programs.
- Focuses on community-led prevention to address the underlying causes of crime.
- Previously earned endorsements from local labor and firefighters' organizations.
“Kimberly supports public safety policies that work: strong law enforcement paired with investments in mental health services, youth engagement, and community-led crime prevention.”
“She knows safety comes from both accountability and opportunity.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports law-enforcement-first policies and child safety measures
Bilirakis emphasizes law enforcement support, school safety funding, and legislation protecting children from online predators. He maintains close partnerships with local law enforcement officials.
- Supported enactment of the Take It Down Act to target AI victimization of children.
- Secured $3 million in federal school-safety funding for Pasco County Schools.
- Partners with local law enforcement, including Pasco Sheriff Chris Nocco, on community safety.
“Safer streets, safer schools, safer kids.”
“The Take It Down Act, signed into law, going after predators using AI to victimize kids.”
Education
medium salienceBilirakis targets federal funding toward campus security infrastructure, while Overman opposes private school vouchers and advocates for increasing public teacher pay and early education funding.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports fully funding public education and higher teacher pay
Overman opposes school voucher programs that divert resources away from public schools and advocates for robust federal investment in public education. She supports competitive teacher compensation, early childhood education, and career/technical training.
- Opposes school voucher programs that reduce funding for local public schools.
- Advocates for fully funding public schools, increasing teacher pay, and expanding Title I funding.
- Supports expanding access to early childhood education, vocational training, and higher education.
“Every child deserves a strong start. Kimberly will fight for fully funded public schools, better teacher pay, and pathways to college, trade careers, and lifelong learning.”
“She will advocate for stronger investments in schools, competitive teacher pay, and expanded access to early childhood education, vocational training, and higher education that prepares students for good-paying jobs.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports school safety funding and local education infrastructure
Bilirakis directs his educational focus on securing federal grant funding to enhance school safety and campus security, as well as supporting conservative educational policies.
- Secured $3 million in school-safety funding for Pasco County Schools in the current fiscal year.
- Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
“$3M in school-safety funding for Pasco County Schools this year.”
Democracy and government reform
low salienceBilirakis emphasizes signing a term limits pledge and requiring proof of citizenship to vote, whereas Overman focuses on expanding voting access and limiting corporate campaign contributions.
Democratic Kimberly Overman
Supports voting rights defense, campaign finance reform, and term limits
Overman focuses on protecting federal voting rights, reforming campaign finance laws, and increasing government transparency. In survey responses, she expressed support for congressional term limits and strict guardrails on corporate political donations.
- Advocates for protecting and expanding federal voting rights and access.
- Supports congressional term limits and stricter guardrails on corporate campaign contributions.
- Emphasizes restoring public trust through government transparency and accountability.
“In Congress, I will defend voting rights, support veterans and seniors, and work to ensure government is responsive to the needs of our communities.”
“Kimberly is committed to protecting voting rights, restoring trust in government, and making sure everyday people—not lobbyists—have a seat at the table.”
Republican Gus M. Bilirakis
Supports congressional term limits and voter ID safeguards
Bilirakis supports structural reforms including congressional term limits and stricter voter identification requirements. He signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge and voted for federal citizenship verification requirements for voters.
- Signed the U.S. Term Limits candidate pledge.
- Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voting registration.
- Rated as one of Florida's most bipartisan members of Congress by the Lugar Center in previous sessions.
“I have always supported term limits, however, I do believe in the absence of the required Constitutional Amendment that this change would require-Americans do have the opportunity to impose term limits through the electoral process.”
Prediction markets 3
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FL-12 House Election Winner
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