Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Likely R

Florida — 11th District

Florida's 11th Congressional District features an open-seat general election matchup between Democratic attorney James Pericola and Republican businessman Joe Strada following the retirement of incumbent Daniel Webster. Election handicappers rate the district as Solid Republican (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections), Safe Republican (Sabato's Crystal Ball), or Likely Republican (Decision Desk HQ). The race hinges on a contrast between Strada's platform as a conservative outsider focused on border security, government accountability, and skilled trade workforce development, and Pericola's focus on middle-class tax cuts, healthcare protections, and democratic safeguards.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
82.5%
Democrats
14.5%
Kalshi ↗
Joe Strada
84.0%
James Pericola
12.0%
Kalshi ↗
Joe Strada
99.0%
Ivette Palomo
1.0%
Tim Wilkins
1.0%
Peyton Grinnell
1.0%
Antonette Harmon
1.0%
Laura Loomer
1.0%
Nizam Razack
1.0%
Mike Wilnau
1.0%
Keith Truenow
1.0%
Carey Baker
1.0%
Anthony Sabatini
1.0%
Jason Fischer
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
James Pericola
99.0%
Dan Williams
1.0%
Barbie Harden Hall
1.0%
Shawn Bettis
1.0%
Walter J. Walker
1.0%
Royal Webster
1.0%

All markets →

01

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Strada advocates for strict border enforcement and providing law enforcement resources to crack down on illegal immigration, while Pericola emphasizes his family's immigrant background and commitment to the American Dream.

Democratic James Pericola

References family background and American Dream

Pericola notes that his wife is an immigrant and emphasizes his family's commitment to protecting the American Dream while serving the public interest.

  • Highlights family perspective as the husband of an immigrant.
  • Emphasizes balancing the promise of the American Dream with the responsibility to protect it.

“My wife is an immigrant, and our family understands both the promise of the American Dream and the responsibility we have to protect it.”

Republican Joe Strada

Supports strict border enforcement and law enforcement resources

Strada criticizes the Biden administration's border policies for burdening public infrastructure and compromising safety. He advocates for empowering Florida law enforcement officers and supporting President Donald Trump's border enforcement and deportation measures.

  • Provide dedicated resources for law enforcement to crack down on illegal immigration impacts.
  • Support President Trump's policies to close the border and deport criminal undocumented immigrants.
  • Criticize past federal policies for leaving borders open and straining local infrastructure.

“Florida has the most dedicated and well-trained law enforcement officers in the nation, and we must ensure they have the resources needed to continue cracking down on the devastating impact illegal immigration has on public safety, our economy and infrastructure.”

“President Trump closed the border, removed dangerous criminals from our country and put the American people first.”

02

Government Reform & Fiscal Accountability

high salience

Strada advocates for a Balanced Budget Amendment, term limits, and a Congressional insider trading ban, while Pericola emphasizes restoring Congressional oversight and cutting corporate tax giveaways.

Democratic James Pericola

Supports congressional oversight and ethics in government

Pericola emphasizes restoring integrity, accountability, and legislative diligence in Congress. He promises to conduct rigorous oversight of the executive branch and prioritize constituent service over media grandstanding.

  • Restore meaningful congressional oversight over federal agencies and the executive branch.
  • Focus on legislative work rather than self-promotion and partisan media appearances.
  • Balance fiscal priorities by targeting corporate giveaways and federal waste.

“Too often today, members of Congress act like commentators or wannabe celebrities instead of legislators, choosing clicks and television cameras over the difficult work of governing.”

“We should balance our priorities by cutting waste and corporate giveaway, not by taking health care or retirement security away from people who earned it and depend on it.”

Republican Joe Strada

Supports congressional reform and balanced budget amendment

Strada positions himself as a conservative outsider running to clean up federal waste and corruption. He pledges to ban congressional insider trading, enact strict term limits, pass a Balanced Budget Amendment, and eliminate fraudulent NGOs and wasteful federal bureaucracy.

  • Ban insider stock trading for members of Congress.
  • Enact term limits for members of Congress to stop career politicians.
  • Support a Balanced Budget Amendment to eliminate reckless government spending.
  • Root out federal waste, fraud, abuse, and fraudulent non-governmental organizations (NGOs).

“NO ONE SHOULD GET RICH IN PUBLIC OFFICE.”

“President Trump has exposed the fraud, waste and abuse buried deep in the federal government, and we must continue to root out bureaucrats and policies that enrich greedy politicians and fraudulent NGOs.”

03

Healthcare & Senior Entitlements

high salience

Pericola advocates for protecting Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and the Affordable Care Act, whereas Strada does not outline a healthcare policy platform.

Democratic James Pericola

Protects Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security

Pericola makes protecting healthcare access and senior entitlement benefits a central policy priority, informed by his experience caring for his aging mother. He pledges to reverse Medicaid cuts, safeguard Social Security and Medicare against privatization, lower prescription drug prices, and protect the Affordable Care Act.

  • Protect Social Security and Medicare from benefit reductions, privatization, or political games.
  • Reverse congressional cuts to Medicaid and expand access to rural healthcare providers.
  • Defend the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and lower prescription drug costs.
  • Improve access to affordable, humane long-term care for seniors.

“I will fight to reverse the devastating Medicaid cuts passed by Congress and protect Social Security and Medicare from benefit reductions, privatization, or political games.”

“That experience drives my commitment to protect Medicare, restore Medicaid cuts, lower prescription drug costs, and make long-term care more accessible, affordable, and humane.”

“Caring for my aging mom, I’ve seen firsthand how complicated and expensive our healthcare system can be.”

Republican Joe Strada No documented position in our sources
04

Economy, Cost of Living & Taxes

high salience

Pericola proposes eliminating income taxes for earners under $100,000 and curbing corporate price gouging, whereas Strada does not offer a specific tax or price intervention platform.

Democratic James Pericola

Supports middle-class tax relief and affordability

Pericola focuses on lowering daily expenses for Central Florida households facing inflation in housing, groceries, and insurance. He proposes eliminating federal income taxes for those making under $100,000 annually, securing federal housing and property insurance assistance, and curbing corporate price gouging.

  • Eliminate income taxes for individuals earning less than $100,000 per year.
  • Enact middle-class tax breaks and eliminate corporate tax giveaways.
  • Secure federal funding to address housing affordability and high property insurance costs.
  • Hold corporations accountable for price gouging on consumer goods.

“In Congress, I will fight to create tax breaks for middle-class families, secure federal funding to address our housing crisis and lower property insurance costs, hold corporations accountable for price gouging, and end wasteful giveaways that reward companies while our neighborhoods fall behind.”

“Work to eliminate income taxes for those making less than $100,000 a year and cut taxes for middle-class families.”

Republican Joe Strada No documented position in our sources
05

Democracy, Voting Rights & Redistricting

medium salience

Pericola advocates for passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act and ending gerrymandering, whereas Strada has no documented position on voting legislation.

Democratic James Pericola

Supports voting rights and ending gerrymandering

Pericola campaigns on safeguarding democratic institutions and protecting voting access. He supports passing federal voting rights legislation, stopping mid-decade partisan redistricting, and defending constitutional protections.

  • Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act.
  • End unfair mid-decade redistricting and partisan gerrymandering.
  • Protect voting access and hold any administration accountable for constitutional overreach.

“In Congress, I will fight to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, protect access to the ballot, and stop unfair mid-decade redistricting that weakens the political power of marginalized communities.”

“James will fight to end gerrymandering, pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, and defend our democracy from MAGA attacks.”

Republican Joe Strada No documented position in our sources
06

Workforce Development & Labor

medium salience

Strada proposes expanding paid trade apprenticeship programs based on his private company's training model, while Pericola does not offer a specific trade workforce policy proposal.

Democratic James Pericola No documented position in our sources

Republican Joe Strada

Promotes paid apprenticeship trade training programs

Strada highlights national contractor shortages and offers his company's internal trade training model as a blueprint for skilled workforce development. He supports paid on-the-job apprenticeship programs and mentorship in electrical, HVAC, and plumbing trades.

  • Address skilled labor shortages affecting 94% of U.S. contractors.
  • Promote paid, on-the-job trade training programs modeled on the Strada Training Program.
  • Provide guaranteed job placements for apprenticeship graduates in traditional trades.

“94% of U.S. contractors report labor shortages, driving wages higher. Faced with shortages of our own, I have developed a successful training program that helped our company grow and create opportunities for countless families.”

“We teach all levels of electrical, air conditioning and plumbing installations in the residential field. All apprenticeship trainees receive an hourly wage while being trained for a lifetime career...”

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-11 House Election Winner

82.5% Republicans
14.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 82.5DEMOCRATS 14.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-11 House winner?

84.0% Joe Strada
12.0% James Pericola
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 84.0STRADA 84.0PERICOLA 12.0PARTY 11.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-11 Republican nominee?

99.0% Joe Strada
1.0% Ivette Palomo
1.0% Tim Wilkins

+9 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16STRADA 99.0LOOMER 1.0WILNAU 1.0BAKER 1.0SABATINI 1.0FISCHER 1.0WILKINS 1.0TRUENOW 1.0GRINNELL 1.0HARMON 1.0PALOMO 1.0RAZACK 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-11 Democratic nominee?

99.0% James Pericola
1.0% Dan Williams
1.0% Barbie Harden Hall

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 2AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16PERICOLA 99.0WILLIAMS 1.0WEBSTER 1.0HALL 1.0WALKER 1.0BETTIS 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.