Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Lean R

Florida’s 9th District race

In Florida's 9th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Darren Soto faces Republican challenger Dan Green in the November 3, 2026 general election following mid-decade redistricting. Soto, serving in Congress since 2017, campaigns on lowering everyday living costs, defending healthcare access, protecting Social Security, and environmental conservation. Green, a U.S. Navy Reserve Commander and former Trump administration defense official, centers his platform on inflation relief, lowering property insurance rates, restoring constitutional government, and national security through strength.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
60.0%
Democrats
40.0%
Kalshi ↗
Dan Green
61.0%
Darren Soto
40.0%
Kalshi ↗
Dan Green
99.0%
Jorge Martinez
1.0%
Justin Story
1.0%
Marcus Carter
1.0%
Ingrid Morales Vazquez
1.0%
Ricky Booth
1.0%
Ben Butler
1.0%
Robbie Brackett
1.0%
Mike La Rosa
1.0%
Jason Fischer
1.0%
Steve Rance
1.0%
Jorge Malavet
1.0%
Thomas Chalifoux
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Green advocates for balancing the federal budget and lowering national debt to curb inflation, whereas Soto focuses on stopping tariffs and securing federal investments for local high-tech job growth.

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports lowering middle-class living costs

Soto focuses on reducing everyday expenses by halting tariffs on groceries, fuel, and housing while bringing high-paying tech jobs to Central Florida. He highlights federal funding he secured for regional high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure at NeoCity and Lake Nona.

  • Stop tariffs that increase grocery, fuel, and housing costs
  • Secure federal funding for high-tech job hubs at NeoCity, Lake Nona, and UCF
  • Modernize regional roads, transit, and clean energy infrastructure
  • Opposed trade deals like NAFTA and TPP that hurt working families

“We must stop tariffs and other policies that are raising grocery, fuel, and housing costs, and hurting local agriculture.”

“I’m focused on bringing high-paying, high tech jobs to Central Florida by funding local initiatives”

Republican Dan Green

Supports fiscal restraint and affordability

Green campaigns on lowering grocery and fuel prices, balancing the federal budget, and paying off the national debt. He blames Biden administration policies for inflation and advocates for conservative fiscal management to relieve financial burdens on families and small businesses.

  • Reduce grocery and gas prices for Florida families
  • Balance the federal budget and pay off the national debt
  • Reverse inflation-driving policies of the Biden administration
  • Support local small businesses and farmers by lowering costs

“In Congress, I will fight to make America affordable again, because when groceries and gas prices are too high, Florida's families, farmers and small business owners suffer.”

“Reducing grocery and gas prices, reducing property insurance rates, balancing the budget and paying off the national debt, and having a strong military in order to ensure the peace.”

02

Housing and Property Insurance

high salience

Green focuses on lowering state property insurance rates and halting overdevelopment through conservative policies, while Soto supports federal resources to build and preserve affordable housing.

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports increasing housing affordability

Soto identifies high housing costs as a primary burden on Central Florida families. He advocates for federal programs and targeted initiatives to lower housing prices and expand access to affordable homeownership.

  • Prioritize housing affordability in federal legislative packages
  • Deliver federal resources to expand affordable housing options in Florida's 9th district
  • Support initiatives to lower home buying and living expenses

“Make food, healthcare, and housing more affordable”

Republican Dan Green

Supports lowering housing and insurance costs

Green aims to make homeownership achievable by lowering property insurance rates and using conservative market principles to curb housing costs. He also pledges to address overdevelopment that displaces long-time local residents.

  • Reduce property insurance rates for Florida homeowners
  • Apply conservative values to lower housing costs for new homebuyers
  • Address community overdevelopment to protect native Floridians from displacement

“Florida homeowners are feeling the impact of rising insurance rates. Dan Green stands with our homeowners and is ready to take their fight to Washington.”

“Dan will use time-tested conservative values to lower housing costs and keep them low!”

03

Defense, Foreign Policy, and Veterans

medium salience

Green emphasizes his Navy Reserve combat experience to advocate for peace through military strength, whereas Soto highlights his congressional voting record on defense spending and veteran care legislation.

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports military funding and veterans care

Soto supports national defense funding and legislative initiatives honoring veterans and civil rights heroes. He voted for National Defense Authorization Acts and supported expanded healthcare benefits for toxic-exposed veterans through the PACT Act.

  • Voted for National Defense Authorization Acts authorizing Department of Defense activities
  • Supported the PACT Act to expand healthcare access for exposed veterans
  • Passed legislation honoring veterans and military families

“honor veterans and civil rights heroes”

Republican Dan Green

Supports peace through strength

Green, a Navy Reserve Commander with combat deployment experience, advocates for a robust military to maintain national security and deter foreign threats. He prioritizes full defense funding, counterterrorism readiness, and veteran care.

  • Build peace through strength by ensuring full funding for the U.S. military
  • Utilize personal counterterrorism and foreign policy expertise from tours in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Support war veterans and address the toll of service on military personnel
  • Endorsed by veterans organizations including SEAL PAC and War Veterans Fund

“Our armed forces guarantee peace for the American people, protect our way of life, and secure our interests abroad. Dan will work with President Trump to ensure our military remains funded and fit for action.”

“Build Peace Through Strength”

04

Government Oversight and Constitutional Rights

medium salience

Green pledges to limit federal overreach and restore constitutional government, while Soto frames his governance efforts around stopping corruption in Washington and preserving federal public programs.

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports anti-corruption and legislative oversight

Soto campaigns on stopping corruption in Washington and defending democratic institutions. He voted against major Republican budget reconciliation packages and voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act to increase government transparency.

  • Campaign on stopping corruption in federal governance
  • Voted against Republican reconciliation legislation (H.R. 1) and SAVE Act requirements
  • Voted for Epstein Files Transparency Act to publish unclassified investigative materials

“I’m running for re-election on the three C’s: Lower Costs. Protect Our Care. Stop Corruption.”

Republican Dan Green

Supports restoring constitutional governance

Green advocates for protecting constitutional rights and limiting federal government overreach. He commits to defending freedoms against what he characterizes as left-wing administrative expansion.

  • Restore constitutional government and defend constitutional rights
  • Oppose left-wing extremist policies that restrict personal freedoms
  • Work alongside President Trump to safeguard constitutional principles

“As a member of the U.S. Navy Reserve, Dan has dedicated his life to serving our Constitution. Unfortunately, progressive members of Congress don't share his commitment. That's why Dan will work to safeguard our Constitutional rights on day one.”

“Restoring Constitutional Government”

05

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports expanding healthcare access and ACA

Soto campaigns on protecting and strengthening the Affordable Care Act and expanding Medicaid access for Floridians. He supports Medicare for All as a public option to complement the ACA and highlights legislative victories capping insulin and prescription drug costs.

  • Stop cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act
  • Support Medicare for All as a public option
  • Cap insulin prices and lower prescription drug costs
  • Passed ACA enhancements and expanded healthcare funding in major federal legislation

“Stop Medicaid and ACA cuts causing thousands of Central Florida families to lose their healthcare.”

“I support Medicare for All to provide a public option to complement the ACA.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
06

Environment, Energy, and Climate Change

medium salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports environmental protection and clean energy

Soto advocates for aggressive action to combat climate change, transition to 100% clean energy, and protect Florida's ecosystems. He supports banning fracking on public lands, protecting coasts from offshore oil drilling, and funding restoration for the Everglades, Kissimmee River, and Great Florida Reef.

  • Support transitioning to clean energy and reducing carbon emissions
  • Ban fracking on public lands and statewide in Florida
  • Oppose coastal offshore oil drilling and protect marine life
  • Pass major legislation restoring the Kissimmee River, Great Florida Reef, and Everglades

“Florida is blessed with a unique and beautiful environment, from America’s Everglades to endless miles of pristine beaches. Our economy and quality of life depend on keeping Florida clean – and that’s not worth sacrificing for the short-term gain of corporate polluters.”

“We must listen to the scientists: Climate change is real and it is caused by human activity. We must dramatically reduce our carbon emissions and transition to a clean energy future.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
07

Social Security and Senior Benefits

medium salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports expanding Social Security and Medicare

Soto advocates for strengthening and fully funding Social Security and Medicare, co-sponsoring the Social Security 2100 Act. He opposes privatization, benefit cuts, or Republican tax measures that lead to mandatory spending cuts for seniors.

  • Co-sponsor the Social Security 2100 Act to secure full program funding beyond 2100
  • Oppose privatization or benefit reductions for Social Security and Medicare
  • Protect senior safety net programs from automatic spending cuts

“At a time when nine out of ten seniors rely on Social Security to make ends meet, we must strengthen and expand Social Security, not cut it.”

“Protect Social Security and Medicare.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
08

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports comprehensive reform and legal protections

Soto supports comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship, a clean DREAM Act, and Temporary Protected Status (TPS) extensions for Venezuelans and Puerto Rican disaster relief. He voted against Republican border enforcement legislation like the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation bills.

  • Support comprehensive immigration reform with a pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents
  • Pass a clean DREAM Act and extend Temporary Protected Status (TPS)
  • Allowed DREAMers to pay in-state tuition and enter the Florida Bar while in state legislature
  • Voted against the Laken Riley Act and Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act

“Passing comprehensive immigration reform – with a pathway to citizenship – must be at the top of our agenda.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
09

Gun Safety

low salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports gun safety regulations

Soto advocates for strict gun safety legislation following mass shootings in Central Florida. His plan includes universal background checks, banning assault weapons and bump stocks, establishing extreme risk protection orders (red-flag laws), and No Fly, No Buy bans.

  • Mandate universal background checks for all firearm purchases
  • Ban assault weapons and bump stocks
  • Implement red-flag laws and prohibit firearm sales to individuals on terrorist watch lists

“We can respect Second Amendment rights while keeping guns out of dangerous hands. We owe it to the victims and survivors of the gun violence epidemic in our country.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

FL-09 House Election Winner

60.0% Republicans
40.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31REPUBLICANS 60.0DEMOCRATS 40.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-09 House winner?

61.0% Dan Green
40.0% Darren Soto
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31PARTY 70.0GREEN 61.0SOTO 40.0PARTY 28.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-09 Republican nominee?

99.0% Dan Green
1.0% Jorge Martinez
1.0% Justin Story

+10 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 23SEP 14OCT 6OCT 26GREEN 99.0CHALIFOUX 1.0STORY 1.0BUTLER 1.0ROSA 1.0VAZQUEZ 1.0RANCE 1.0BOOTH 1.0MARTINEZ 1.0FISCHER 1.0BRACKETT 1.0MALAVET 1.0CARTER 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.