Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Lean R

Florida — 9th District

In Florida's 9th Congressional District, Democratic incumbent Darren Soto faces Republican challenger Dan Green in the November 3, 2026 general election. The race hinges on cost of living, federal spending, healthcare protections, and local issues like property insurance and housing affordability. FL-09 is one of 23 Democratic-held House seats nationwide that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election, making it a key battleground. Major race rating outlets classify the contest as Lean Republican (Decision Desk) or Likely Republican (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
62.5%
Democrats
36.0%
Kalshi ↗
Dan Green
64.0%
Darren Soto
37.0%
Kalshi ↗
Dan Green
99.0%
Jorge Martinez
1.0%
Justin Story
1.0%
Marcus Carter
1.0%
Ingrid Morales Vazquez
1.0%
Ricky Booth
1.0%
Ben Butler
1.0%
Robbie Brackett
1.0%
Mike La Rosa
1.0%
Jason Fischer
1.0%
Steve Rance
1.0%
Jorge Malavet
1.0%
Thomas Chalifoux
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Soto seeks to lower costs by eliminating tariffs and directing federal investments into local high-tech industries, whereas Green advocates balancing the federal budget and applying conservative fiscal principles to reduce fuel and grocery prices.

Democratic Darren Soto

Opposes tariffs and promotes job creation

Soto centers his economic platform on lowering household expenses by opposing tariffs that increase grocery, fuel, and housing costs. He emphasizes bringing federal investments to Central Florida for high-tech manufacturing, infrastructure, and local workforce development.

  • Opposes federal tariffs that raise prices on fuel, food, and housing
  • Secured federal funding for high-tech sensor manufacturing and Valencia College Poinciana campus
  • Voted against major Republican budget and tax proposals including H.R. 1 in the 119th Congress

“We must stop tariffs and other policies that are raising grocery, fuel, and housing costs, and hurting local agriculture.”

Republican Dan Green

Lowers grocery and fuel costs

Green frames affordability as his top campaign issue, pledging to cut gas and grocery costs through conservative fiscal discipline. He advocates balancing the federal budget, paying off national debt, and reducing regulatory burdens on small businesses and farmers.

  • Campaign theme to 'Make America Affordable Again' by curbing inflation
  • Pledges to balance the federal budget and pay off the national debt
  • Focuses policy on reducing fuel and grocery costs for Florida families and business owners

“In Congress, I will fight to make America affordable again, because when groceries and gas prices are too high, Florida's families, farmers and small business owners suffer.”

02

Housing and property insurance

medium salience

Soto supports expanding federal affordable housing assistance, while Green focuses on lowering state property insurance rates and managing local overdevelopment through market mechanisms.

Democratic Darren Soto

Promotes federal affordable housing funding

Soto highlights affordable housing as a key platform priority, backing federal assistance programs to help Central Florida families facing high shelter costs.

  • Supports federal funding for local housing and food assistance
  • Identifies Affordable Housing as a core platform issue for District 9

Republican Dan Green

Lowers insurance rates and limits overdevelopment

Green targets Florida's insurance and housing crisis by proposing conservative market solutions to cut property insurance rates. He also advocates curbing overdevelopment to prevent displacement of long-term residents.

  • Advocates for federal and state solutions to lower rising property insurance rates
  • Proposes policies to curb overdevelopment that displaces local Floridians
  • Pledges to apply conservative market principles to improve housing affordability

“Florida homeowners are feeling the impact of rising insurance rates. Dan Green stands with our homeowners and is ready to take their fight to Washington.”

03

Defense and foreign policy

medium salience

Green draws on his background as a military officer and Trump defense appointee to push for a peace-through-strength military policy, whereas Soto points to his congressional record of voting for defense authorization bills.

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports military funding and national security

Soto supports defense authorizations that fund the military and maintain readiness while backing resources for veterans. His legislative record includes supporting annual defense appropriations.

  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024
  • Maintains platform support for military installations and veteran healthcare resources

Republican Dan Green

Advocates peace through military strength

Drawing on his career as a Navy Reserve Commander and former Trump defense appointee, Green prioritizes robust military funding to deter global adversaries. He emphasizes counterterrorism and a strong defense posture to guarantee national peace.

  • Served as Navy Reserve Commander with SEAL team deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan
  • Appointed by Donald Trump as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy & Force Development in 2019
  • Campaign message centered on 'Build Peace Through Strength' through full military funding

“The United States is the greatest military force on earth. Our armed forces guarantee peace for the American people, protect our way of life, and secure our interests abroad.”

04

Government integrity and Constitution

medium salience

Soto emphasizes fighting political corruption and promoting legislative transparency, while Green focuses on strictly enforcing constitutional limits against progressive federal policy.

Democratic Darren Soto

Combats federal corruption and misconduct

Soto positions stopping corruption in Washington as a core theme of his campaign ('the three C's'). He supports government transparency initiatives, including public release of federal oversight and investigative files.

  • Includes 'Stop Corruption' as one of three primary platform pillars
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405) to release unclassified DOJ records

“And fight rampant corruption in Washington.”

Republican Dan Green

Pledges to restore constitutional limits

Green makes restoring constitutional government a cornerstone of his campaign, accusing progressive lawmakers of overstepping constitutional bounds. He promises to defend individual rights against federal overreach.

  • Campaign priority to restore constitutional government and safeguard rights
  • Critiques progressive members of Congress for undermining constitutional principles

“As a member of the U.S. Navy Reserve, Dan has dedicated his life to serving our Constitution. Unfortunately, progressive members of Congress don't share his commitment.”

05

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Protects ACA and expands Medicaid

Soto opposes cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act, calling healthcare access a core right. He supports a public option through Medicare for All and highlights efforts to cap prescription drug costs.

  • Opposes Republican attempts to repeal or cut funding for the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid
  • Supports Medicare for All as a public option to complement the ACA
  • Promotes legislation to cap out-of-pocket prescription drug prices such as insulin

“Stop Medicaid and ACA cuts causing thousands of Central Florida families to lose their healthcare.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
06

Immigration and border security

medium salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Supports comprehensive reform with path to citizenship

Soto advocates for comprehensive immigration reform incorporating a pathway to citizenship, DREAMer protections, and Temporary Protected Status extensions. He opposes strict Republican border measures that mandating immediate deportations or state lawsuits.

  • Supports a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and protections for DREAMers
  • Pushed for TPS extensions for Venezuelan refugees and Medicaid parity for Puerto Rico
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act, SAVE Act citizenship proof requirement, and DUI deportation bill

“Passing comprehensive immigration reform – with a pathway to citizenship – must be at the top of our agenda.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
07

Social Security and senior programs

low salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Protects and expands Social Security and Medicare

Soto pledges to defend Social Security and Medicare from benefit cuts or privatization proposals. He co-sponsored legislation to extend full Social Security funding into the next century.

  • Co-sponsored the Social Security 2100 Act to ensure long-term solvency
  • Opposes privatization or benefit reductions for Social Security and Medicare

“At a time when nine out of ten seniors rely on Social Security to make ends meet, we must strengthen and expand Social Security, not cut it.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources
08

Environment and energy

low salience

Democratic Darren Soto

Advocates clean energy and Everglades protection

Soto emphasizes environmental conservation, supporting clean energy investments, Everglades restoration, and bans on fracking and offshore drilling. He critiques climate change denial and calls for transitioning to clean energy.

  • Supports banning fracking on public lands and prohibiting coastal offshore oil drilling
  • Earned a 100% rating from the League of Conservation Voters and endorsement from the Democratic Environmental Caucus of Florida
  • Promotes clean energy transition investments and Everglades preservation funding

“Florida is blessed with a unique and beautiful environment, from America’s Everglades to endless miles of pristine beaches.”

Republican Dan Green No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-09 House Election Winner

62.5% Republicans
36.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 62.5DEMOCRATS 36.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-09 House winner?

64.0% Dan Green
37.0% Darren Soto
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 70.0GREEN 64.0SOTO 37.0PARTY 28.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-09 Republican nominee?

99.0% Dan Green
1.0% Jorge Martinez
1.0% Justin Story

+10 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GREEN 99.0CHALIFOUX 1.0STORY 1.0BUTLER 1.0ROSA 1.0VAZQUEZ 1.0RANCE 1.0BOOTH 1.0MARTINEZ 1.0FISCHER 1.0BRACKETT 1.0MALAVET 1.0CARTER 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.