Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Lean R

Florida — 7th District

In Florida's 7th Congressional District, Democratic nominee Bale Dalton faces Republican nominee Ryan Elijah in the November 3, 2026 general election for an open seat after incumbent Cory Mills was defeated in the Republican primary. Major nonpartisan rating outlets classify the race as Likely Republican or Lean Republican. The contest hinges on economic affordability and energy costs, healthcare access, public ethics, local education policies, and law enforcement support in Central Florida.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
66.5%
Democrats
33.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ryan Elijah
69.0%
Bale Dalton
32.0%
Kalshi ↗
Ryan Elijah
99.0%
Cory Mills
1.0%
Sarah Ulrich
1.0%
Mike Johnson
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bale Dalton
99.0%
Benjamin Ewers
1.0%
Jennifer Adams
1.0%
Alan Grayson
1.0%
George Bock
1.0%
Marialana Kinter
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Dalton emphasizes reversing tariffs, raising the minimum wage, and capping utility and insurance rates, whereas Elijah focuses on cutting federal spending, reducing regulation, and keeping taxes low.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Focus on lowering costs and making Florida affordable

Dalton identifies making Florida affordable again as his primary priority in Congress. He advocates for reversing recent health care premium increases and tariffs, capping utility and insurance price gouging, raising the federal minimum wage, and passing the PRO Act to empower labor unions.

  • Reverse tariffs and health care premium price hikes
  • Provide federal oversight over utility and property insurance rate increases
  • Raise the federal minimum wage and pass the PRO Act

“My number one priority is making Florida affordable again.”

“With prices rising, wages also need to keep up – which is why I support raising the federal minimum wage and passing the PRO Act, so labor unions can advocate for workers in a changing economy.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Lower taxes, cut spending, reduce regulations

Elijah pledges to act as a fiscal conservative who will cut wasteful government spending and reduce the national debt to curb inflation. He supports pro-growth economic policies including tax cuts, deregulation, and energy independence to reduce costs for families and businesses.

  • Reduce national debt by cutting spending and eliminating fraud
  • Lower taxes and streamline federal regulations to spur job growth
  • Achieve energy independence to drive down fuel and consumer costs

“I will fight to reduce our unsustainable national debt by cutting spending and fraud.”

“Congress must do its part to keep taxes low and drive down costs for American families.”

02

Healthcare

high salience

Dalton advocates for expanding ACA subsidies and negotiating drug prices, while Elijah promotes market-based solutions, reduced healthcare regulation, and expanded Health Savings Accounts.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Protect Medicare/Medicaid, lower ACA premiums, negotiate drug prices

Dalton seeks to protect Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid from budget cuts while strengthening the Affordable Care Act to lower premiums and deductibles. He also supports Medicare drug price negotiation to reduce prescription costs.

  • Restore funding to Medicaid and Medicare and safeguard long-term solvency
  • Build on the Affordable Care Act to lower premiums and eliminate surprise medical bills
  • Allow federal drug price negotiation to reduce prescription costs

“We need to elect members of Congress who will restore funding to Medicaid, reverse premium cuts, and protect Social Security and Medicare for generations to come.”

“I support negotiating drug prices in the United States – like every other wealthy country does – to keep Americans from being ripped off.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Patient-centered healthcare, eliminate regulation, expand HSAs

Elijah supports patient-centered healthcare solutions that lower costs by stripping away unnecessary federal regulations and expanding Health Savings Accounts. He also advocates for price transparency among hospitals and health insurers.

  • Eliminate unnecessary regulations to reduce health costs and insurance premiums
  • Expand Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) through tax benefits
  • Require clear price transparency from hospitals and insurance providers

“I will also focus on healthcare, including eliminating unnecessary regulation to drive costs and premiums lower.”

“Ryan supports solutions that deliver affordable, patient-centered healthcare options. He also believes healthcare costs can be reduced by providing individuals with tax benefits, such as expanded Health Savings Accounts.”

03

Ethics and Government Reform

high salience

Dalton proposes explicit legal bans on stock trading and prediction market betting by members of Congress, whereas Elijah focuses ethics reform on curbing government waste and taxpayer fraud.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Ban stock trading and prediction market betting by politicians

Dalton prioritizes ethics reform to restore public trust in government. He proposes outlawing stock trading by members of Congress in industries they regulate and banning federal officials from participating in prediction markets.

  • Make it illegal for politicians to trade stocks in companies they regulate
  • Bar federal employees and elected officials from betting on prediction markets
  • Impose penalties on elected officials who profit off insider information

“It’s well past time we make it illegal for politicians to profit off of their positions by trading stocks on the very companies they are supposed to regulate.”

“That’s why, I support barring all federal employees and elected officials from betting on prediction markets.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Eliminate government waste and taxpayer fraud

Elijah focuses on government accountability by calling for strict oversight to stop taxpayer fraud and cut wasteful federal programs.

  • Stop fraud against American taxpayers
  • Cut wasteful federal spending to control national debt

“Fraud against American taxpayers must not be tolerated.”

04

Public Safety and Law Enforcement

medium salience

Dalton emphasizes pairing police funding with gun safety restrictions, while Elijah focuses on increasing law enforcement resources and tougher penalties for crimes against officers.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Fully fund police while keeping guns from criminals

Dalton supports full funding for local police departments while keeping firearms out of the hands of dangerous criminals to safeguard public safety in local communities.

  • Ensure local police departments receive full funding and resources
  • Keep firearms out of the hands of dangerous criminals while protecting Second Amendment rights

“We must ensure that our police departments are fully funded and have the resources they need to do their job well.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Back law enforcement with funding and tougher penalties

Elijah centers his public safety platform on strong support for law enforcement agencies, backing federal funding for officer training, technology, and personnel, along with harsher legal penalties for those who assault or shoot officers.

  • Secure federal grants for law enforcement training, technology, and personnel
  • Pass legislation creating tougher penalties for assaulting or shooting law enforcement officers
  • Leverage relationships with local law enforcement leaders

“I will strongly support legislation that protects law enforcement, including tougher penalties for assaulting or shooting officers.”

“Federal funding for training, new technology and personnel are critical for the safety of our community.”

05

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Dalton supports codifying Roe v. Wade in federal law to secure abortion rights, while Elijah adopts a pro-life platform asserting that life is a sacred gift.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Codify Roe into federal law

Dalton opposes Florida's six-week abortion ban as an intrusion into personal privacy. He advocates codifying the protections of Roe v. Wade into federal law to protect women's reproductive health decisions.

  • Codify Roe v. Wade into federal statute
  • Oppose state-level restrictive abortion bans

“That’s why I support codifying Roe into federal law, to put these decisions back where they belong – with patients.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Pro-life, protect sacred gift of life

Elijah identifies as pro-life and states that human life is a sacred gift from God. He pledges to support policies in Congress that protect family values and children.

  • Maintain a pro-life legislative stance
  • Champion policies supporting traditional family structures

“Ryan is pro-life and believes every life is a sacred gift from God.”

06

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Dalton favors a general focus on robust national border security, whereas Elijah demands strict legal enforcement, anti-drug operations, and federal legislation restricting voter registration strictly to citizens.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Robust border security prioritizing American interests

Dalton supports building and maintaining a strong border security infrastructure that protects the American public and serves national security interests.

  • Maintain strong national and border security infrastructure
  • Prioritize American security and economic interests

“I support a robust national security and border security infrastructure that prioritizes the American people and American interests, at home and abroad.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Secure borders, enforce rule of law, pass Save America Act

Elijah advocates for strict border enforcement and stopping illegal drug trafficking into Florida. He opposes giving non-citizens priority over citizens and strongly supports the Save America Act to limit voting strictly to U.S. citizens.

  • Enforce immigration laws and secure national borders
  • Support the Save America Act to require proof of citizenship for voting
  • Partner with law enforcement to block illegal drug trafficking

“We must continue to secure our borders and oppose any measures that weaken enforcement or prioritize non-citizens over American safety.”

“He strongly supports the Save America Act, which ensures only American citizens can vote in our elections — because citizenship must matter.”

07

Energy and Environment

medium salience

Dalton balances energy independence with explicit protections against offshore drilling in Florida, while Elijah focuses primarily on achieving lower fuel costs through energy independence.

Democratic Bale Dalton

All-of-the-above energy, protect waterways and public lands

Dalton supports an all-of-the-above domestic energy strategy that reduces reliance on foreign oil and Chinese solar while lowering costs. Simultaneously, he opposes offshore drilling near Florida to safeguard military testing ranges and natural waterways.

  • Pursue energy independence through an all-of-the-above energy strategy
  • Protect military testing ranges and Florida waterways from offshore oil drilling
  • Reduce reliance on foreign energy supplies

“Endorsing an all-of-the-above energy policy means strengthening our nation’s energy independence and reducing our need for foreign oil and Chinese solar while also lowering costs for American consumers.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Achieve energy independence and lower gas prices

Elijah emphasizes achieving American energy independence as a key driver of economic prosperity. He argues that lower gas prices directly decrease transportation costs for businesses and families.

  • Achieve full American energy independence
  • Enact energy policies aimed at driving down fuel prices

“Energy independence and lower gas prices are critical to our economy.”

“Lower gas prices are critical to our economy because they reduce costs for families, businesses, and everything we buy.”

08

Foreign Policy and National Security

medium salience

Dalton explicitly calls to end the war in Iran and avoid Middle East military entanglements, whereas Elijah focuses broadly on maintaining superior military hardware and defense strength.

Democratic Bale Dalton

End Iran war, avoid forever wars, counter China

Dalton calls for ending the war in Iran and avoiding middle eastern entanglements without clear strategic outcomes. He advocates countering Chinese economic and military influence while preventing foreign aid waste.

  • Call for an end to the war in Iran
  • Avoid Middle East forever wars by establishing clear strategic goals
  • Counter global military and economic challenges from China

“Bale Dalton Calls for an End to the Iran War On the Six-Month Anniversary of the Conflict”

“doing so requires avoiding more forever wars in the Middle East, and having clear, strategic goals that guide our military operations.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Keep military strongest and best equipped force

Elijah advocates for robust defense spending to ensure the U.S. military remains the premier fighting force in the world, equipped with cutting-edge technology.

  • Ensure the military remains the world's strongest fighting force
  • Invest in advanced military equipment and defense technology

“We must ensure that the U.S. military remains the strongest and best-equipped fighting force in the world, backed by the most advanced technology.”

09

Veterans Affairs

medium salience

Both candidates pledge strong veteran care, though Dalton emphasizes his personal service background and past casework navigating the VA system.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Ensure veterans receive earned care and benefits

Drawing on his 24 years of military service and congressional staff experience, Dalton advocates for providing veterans and their families with comprehensive healthcare services and earned benefits.

  • Ensure complete access to veteran healthcare and disability benefits
  • Support military families following service deployments

“ensuring veterans can access the care they need and benefits they have earned”

“We also must do more to ensure that every single American who serves their country, and their families, receives the benefits that they so rightly earned through their service.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Provide veterans best possible care post-service

Elijah pledges to fight for military veterans to guarantee high-quality post-service medical care and support programs.

  • Guarantee top-tier medical care for military veterans
  • Honor veterans' service through dedicated federal support

“We must also guarantee that our veterans receive the best possible care after their service to our nation.”

10

Gun Rights and the Second Amendment

medium salience

Dalton emphasizes pairing constitutional gun rights with measures to keep weapons from violent criminals, while Elijah presents a staunch defense of the Second Amendment.

Democratic Bale Dalton

Support Second Amendment with responsible gun ownership

Dalton supports gun ownership rights for law-abiding citizens under the Second Amendment while encouraging responsible safety training and measures to keep firearms away from violent criminals.

  • Protect Second Amendment rights for law-abiding citizens
  • Prevent violent criminals from securing firearms

“As a gun owner today, I understand and deeply believe that the Second Amendment is a fundamental right for law-abiding citizens in this country, as it should be.”

Republican Ryan Elijah

Staunch supporter of the Second Amendment

Elijah states that he is a staunch defender of Second Amendment rights for law-abiding citizens.

  • Staunchly protect constitutional gun ownership rights

“He is a staunch supporter of the Second Amendment.”

11

Education

medium salience
Democratic Bale Dalton No documented position in our sources

Republican Ryan Elijah

Champion parental rights and school choice

Elijah supports parental rights, school choice, and curriculum transparency in education. He emphasizes protecting local school control while ensuring federal educational funding reaches district schools effectively.

  • Promote parental rights and school choice across public and private schools
  • Require transparency on school curricula
  • Protect local control over educational institutions

“He champions parental rights and school choice, empowering families to make the best decisions for their kids and have transparency on curriculum.”

“We must protect local control and ensure every dollar serves our students effectively.”

12

Housing

medium salience

Democratic Bale Dalton

Increase housing supply and ban Wall Street speculators

Dalton proposes expanding housing development across all income levels and prohibiting institutional Wall Street investors from purchasing single-family residential homes.

  • Expand housing supply for all income levels
  • Ban Wall Street institutional speculators from buying single-family homes

“While we absolutely need to enable the creation of more housing at all income levels in order to increase supply, we also should ban Wall Street speculators from buying up single-family homes, which further reduces options for families and drives up costs for everyone else.”

Republican Ryan Elijah No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-07 House Election Winner

66.5% Republicans
33.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 66.5DEMOCRATS 33.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-07 House winner?

69.0% Ryan Elijah
32.0% Bale Dalton
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 79.0ELIJAH 69.0PARTY 67.0DALTON 32.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-07 Republican nominee?

99.0% Ryan Elijah
1.0% Cory Mills
1.0% Sarah Ulrich

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16ELIJAH 99.0JOHNSON 1.0MILLS 1.0ULRICH 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-07 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Bale Dalton
1.0% Benjamin Ewers
1.0% Jennifer Adams

+3 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16DALTON 99.0GRAYSON 1.0EWERS 1.0KINTER 1.0BOCK 1.0ADAMS 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.