Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Safe R

Florida — 3rd District

Incumbent Republican Kat Cammack faces Democratic challenger Seth Harp in the general election for Florida's 3rd Congressional District on November 3, 2026. Cammack advanced automatically after the Republican primary was canceled, while Harp won a four-candidate Democratic primary on August 18, 2026. The race hinges on Cammack's conservative legislative voting record and focus on border security against Harp's platform centered on protecting entitlement programs, funding childcare, and federal infrastructure investment. Major nonpartisan election forecasters—including Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball—rate the seat as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
93.5%
Democrats
5.5%
Kalshi ↗
Kat Cammack
95.0%
Seth Harp
6.6%
Kalshi ↗
Seth Harp
99.0%
Tom Wells
1.0%
Troy Albers
1.0%
George Hubac
1.0%

All markets →

01

Social Security, Medicare, and Healthcare

high salience

Harp opposes any benefit cuts and seeks to expand funding for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, whereas Cammack supports conservative budget controls and entitlement policy adjustments.

Democratic Seth Harp

Supports strengthening Social Security and Medicare

Harp prioritizes solidifying Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid to prevent working families and seniors from facing financial ruin to stay alive. He criticizes Republican proposed cuts to entitlement programs that citizens have paid into and earned over their careers.

  • Advocates solidifying Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as essential health and financial safety nets.
  • Opposes Republican legislative proposals that reduce or modify earned entitlement benefits.
  • Supports using House Ways and Means Committee authority to fund healthcare programs.

“Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid all need to be solidified and strengthened. Not a single person should suffer economic hardships or financial ruin just to stay afloat and alive.”

“What the GOP is trying to take away from those that have paid for, earned and deserve within these services and programs is downright abhorrent.”

Republican Kat Cammack

Supports entitlement reform and healthcare oversight

Cammack serves on the House Energy and Commerce Health Subcommittee and supports conservative budget alignment and fiscal oversight. In Congress, she supported the Social Security Fairness Act to adjust benefit calculation offsets for individuals receiving government pensions.

  • Assigned to the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee on Health.
  • Voted for the Social Security Fairness Act of 2023 (H.R. 82) regarding government pension offsets.
  • Spearheaded the funding and establishment of four VA medical clinics in FL-03.

“During my seven years as Rep. Ted Yoho's Deputy Chief of Staff, I spearheaded the funding and building of four new VA clinics here in our District.”

02

Budget, Economy, and Taxation

high salience

Cammack pledges to oppose all tax increases and reduce federal spending, whereas Harp advocates using revenue-raising powers to invest in social safety nets and middle-class programs.

Democratic Seth Harp

Supports middle-class investments and revenue initiatives

Harp advocates using House revenue powers to fund programs aimed at strengthening the middle class and funding healthcare and childcare infrastructure. He favors economic measures modeled on major historical legislative investments like the New Deal and Balanced Budget Act.

  • Supports leveraging federal revenue tools to rebuild the middle class and expand safety-net funding.
  • Prioritizes funding social programs over tax cuts that disproportionately benefit high earners.

“America is at its strongest when programs that are focused on the health and well-being of her people are funded and supported. Rebuilding the middle class is often talked about but never a priority in terms of a plan or execution.”

Republican Kat Cammack

Opposes tax hikes and supports spending cuts

Cammack views federal deficits and national debt as primary national security risks. She signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing to oppose all income tax increases and favors reforming the tax code to make it flatter while significantly reducing federal spending.

  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform's Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing income tax rate hikes.
  • Voted Yea on H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) reconciliation act and H.R. 2811 (Limit, Save, Grow Act).
  • Advocates for a flatter tax code and strict caps on federal expenditures.

“Washington does not have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem. We need bold leaders who will look to cut taxes, reform our tax code to make the system flatter and fairer, and significantly reduce spending.”

03

Infrastructure and Environment

medium salience

Harp champions federal investments like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and protecting Florida's springs, while Cammack voted against the Infrastructure Law and supports expanding energy production by reducing permitting rules.

Democratic Seth Harp

Supports federal infrastructure funding and local environmental protections

Harp strongly supports the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, highlighting its investments in high-speed internet. He criticizes state and federal Republican policies that cut FEMA resources and allow commercial water siphoning from local Florida natural springs.

  • Endorses the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for expanding high-speed internet and transportation.
  • Opposes cuts to FEMA funding and opposes permitting commercial water siphoning from Florida springs.

“Here in Florida the GOP is playing Russian Roulette with FEMA cuts and allowing companies to siphon fresh water from our springs to increase profits. It is putting us all in harm’s way.”

“President Biden’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act is so good that the Republicans that voted against it continue to take credit for it in their districts!”

Republican Kat Cammack

Supports domestic energy production and permitting cuts

Cammack supports expanding domestic oil, gas, and mineral production by removing permitting restrictions on energy pipelines and projects. She voted against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in the 117th Congress.

  • Voted Yea on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 118th Congress) to streamline pipeline permitting.
  • Voted Nay on the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
04

Term Limits and Government Reform

medium salience

Both candidates favor congressional term limits, with Harp proposing specific 8-to-10-year caps for House members and Cammack signing the U.S. Term Limits pledge.

Democratic Seth Harp

Supports mandatory congressional term limits

Harp advocates establishing strict term limits for federal lawmakers, citing George Washington's precedent. He proposes a service limit of 8 to 10 years for U.S. House Representatives and 12 years for U.S. Senators.

  • Proposes an 8-to-10-year limit for members of the House of Representatives.
  • Supports a 12-year (two-term) ceiling for U.S. Senators.

“Due to the nature of the House of Representatives being a 2-year endeavor, I am good with 8-10 years as a ceiling as well.”

Republican Kat Cammack

Supports federal constitutional term limits

Cammack signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge and contends that career politicians are responsible for skyrocketing federal debt and institutional dysfunction. She advocates for continuous turnover in Congress to bring new perspectives to Washington.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits pledge.
  • Argues career politicians contribute to national spending growth and systemic corruption.

“I am a firm believer that career politicians have led our Nation into nearly $23 trillion of debt and have failed to fix the broken programs they started.”

05

Immigration and Border Security

high salience
Democratic Seth Harp No documented position in our sources

Republican Kat Cammack

Supports border wall and mandatory detention

Cammack advocates for strict physical border security, increased enforcement personnel, and advanced border tracking technologies. She opposes any form of amnesty for unauthorized immigrants and consistently votes for enhanced detention and deportation legislation.

  • Voted Yea on the Secure the Border Act (H.R. 2), Laken Riley Act (S. 5), and DUI Deportation Act (H.R. 875).
  • Opposes amnesty in any form for noncitizens who enter the United States unlawfully.
  • Pledges continued support for constructing a physical southern border barrier.

“Be assured that on day one, as your Representative, I will work with the Trump Administration to help build the wall and secure the border. You can also be certain that I will never support amnesty of any kind for those who illegally enter our country.”

“The failures to stop unauthorized crossings over the past several decades have led to serious national security threats and an influx of individuals who have illegally entered our county.”

06

Family Support and Childcare

medium salience

Democratic Seth Harp

Supports targeted childcare stipends for families

Harp proposes the Child Unity Break Stipend (C.U.B.S. Act) as part of his core platform to reduce working families' childcare expenses. He argues that targeted childcare relief is a more practical use of public funds than untargeted direct cash payments for having children.

  • Proposes the C.U.B.S. Act (Child Unity Break Stipend) to offset family childcare costs.
  • Prioritizes early childhood development funding over broad cash payouts.

“Providing families relief when it comes to child care, needs to become a priority. Seeing that children who are young and impressionable receive proper care and development is a better use our nation’s resources than handing out $2,500 checks for people to have a child.”

Republican Kat Cammack No documented position in our sources
07

Gun Rights and the Second Amendment

medium salience
Democratic Seth Harp No documented position in our sources

Republican Kat Cammack

Opposes firearm restrictions and defends gun rights

Cammack is a concealed carry permit holder and former board member for Alachua County Friends of NRA. She opposes gun control legislation and pledges to resist any efforts to restrict Second Amendment rights.

  • Concealed carry permit holder and former board member for Alachua County Friends of NRA.
  • Opposes legislative proposals restricting firearm ownership or concealed carry rights.

“I will always uphold and defend our Second Amendment Rights. As a concealed carry permit holder and wife to a first responder, I am adamant about protecting this most basic American right.”

08

Abortion and Reproductive Rights

medium salience
Democratic Seth Harp No documented position in our sources

Republican Kat Cammack

Opposes abortion access

Cammack holds an anti-abortion position, stating that human life begins at conception. She pledges to advocate for anti-abortion legislation in Congress and engage younger voters on pro-life policy.

  • Maintains that human life begins at conception.
  • Pledges to advocate for anti-abortion policies and unborn protections in Congress.

“I am pro-life and I will fight to protect the unborn at all costs. Life begins at conception and I will never waver in my advocacy on this incredibly important issue.”

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-03 House Election Winner

93.5% Republicans
5.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 93.5DEMOCRATS 5.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-03 House winner?

95.0% Kat Cammack
6.6% Seth Harp
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16CAMMACK 95.0PARTY 92.6PARTY 6.6HARP 6.6

Kalshi ↗

FL-03 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Seth Harp
1.0% Tom Wells
1.0% Troy Albers

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16HARP 99.0ALBERS 1.0HUBAC 1.0WELLS 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.