Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Likely R

Florida — 2nd District

Portrait of Austin Rogers

Republican

Austin Rogers

The 2026 general election for Florida's 2nd Congressional District features Democrat Amanda Green and Republican Austin Rogers competing for an open seat following the withdrawal of Republican incumbent Neal Dunn. Major race rating outlets classify the district as favorable to Republicans, with Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rating it Solid Republican, Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Safe Republican, and Decision Desk listing it as Likely Republican. The outcome hinges on whether Green can leverage her populist economic and anti-corruption messages to overcome the district's strong Republican baseline.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
90.5%
Democrats
8.5%
Kalshi ↗
Austin Rogers
91.0%
Amanda Green
10.0%
Kalshi ↗
Austin Rogers
99.0%
Nick Lewis
1.0%
Evan Power
1.0%
Luke Murphy
1.0%
Audie Rowell
1.0%
Keith Gross
1.0%
Jim Norton
1.0%
George Hensarling
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Amanda Green
99.0%
Nic Zateslo
1.0%
Yen Bailey
1.0%
Brice Barnes
1.0%
Al Lawson
1.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports lowering costs and market regulations

Green focuses on tackling what she terms an affordability crisis through target restrictions on corporate practices and support for working families. She proposes banning corporate ownership of single-family housing, reining in insurance companies, and lowering energy costs. Additionally, she emphasizes addressing income inequality and fighting corporate greed and unfair taxes.

  • Prohibit corporate ownership of single-family homes to reduce housing costs.
  • Rein in insurance companies and lower gas prices.
  • Address income inequality to ensure families can afford food and medical care.

“I will tackle the affordability crisis by supporting American farmers, lowering housing costs, banning corporate ownership of single-family homes, reining in insurance companies, protecting Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans’ benefits, and lowering gas prices while fighting corporate greed, unfair taxes, and political corruption.”

“I believe the greatest challenge facing the nation over the next decade will be restoring some sense of economic stability and addressing income inequality to ensure people can put food on the table and get proper medical care.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
02

Government Reform and Anti-Corruption

high salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports stock bans and term limits

Green advocates structural ethics reforms to restore public accountability in Congress. She supports banning stock trading by members of Congress and establishing term limits. She also promises transparency through regular in-person town halls in her district and virtual town halls while Congress is in session.

  • Ban stock trading for members of Congress.
  • Enact term limits for federal lawmakers.
  • Conduct regular in-person town halls in the district and virtual town halls while in Washington, D.C.

“We must restore accountability in government by banning congressional stock trading, enacting term limits, and holding members of Congress accountable to their constituents, not their billionaire donors.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
03

Healthcare and Entitlements

medium salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports protecting entitlement and healthcare benefits

Green prioritizes safeguarding social safety net programs and increasing healthcare affordability for working and rural families. She pledges to protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans' benefits from budget cuts. She frames healthcare access and affordability as essential economic guarantees.

  • Protect Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and veterans' benefits from reductions.
  • Lower healthcare costs and improve affordability for working families.

“My work is driven by a focus on food security, healthcare affordability, united families, and protecting the benefits people have earned.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
04

Privacy and Individual Freedoms

medium salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports personal privacy and First Amendment rights

Green opposes government intrusion into personal life, medical care, and religious freedom. She advocates strong protections for First Amendment rights, explicitly highlighting both the Establishment Clause and Free Exercise Clause. Her platform asserts that private decisions should remain free from state interference.

  • Prevent government interference in personal health choices, doctor's offices, and private lives.
  • Uphold First Amendment protections, including the Establishment Clause and Free Exercise Clause.

“America is a free country where the government has no business in our private lives, our doctor’s offices, our backyards, or our places of worship.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
05

Agriculture and Rural Investment

medium salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports agriculture funding and rural representation

Green focuses on addressing the specific needs of rural North Florida through federal agricultural policy and economic investment. She aims to serve on the House Committee on Agriculture to champion food security and farm support. Her platform links agricultural stability directly to local economic growth.

  • Seek appointment to the House Committee on Agriculture.
  • Support American farmers and enhance regional food security.
  • Invest in rural communities, small businesses, and local job creation.

“I am eager to sit on the House Committee on Agriculture, which directly proposes policy that supports farmers and hungry families.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
06

Disaster Preparedness and Gulf Coast Infrastructure

medium salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports federal disaster recovery and resilient infrastructure

Green emphasizes securing federal resources to strengthen disaster relief and hurricane recovery throughout the Gulf Coast. She supports developing climate-resilient infrastructure to handle rising sea levels and storm impacts. She critiques delayed federal responses following major natural disasters.

  • Secure federal funding for hurricane preparedness and Gulf Coast disaster recovery.
  • Build resilient infrastructure to mitigate environmental challenges such as rising sea levels.

“protecting the region from slow-response after disasters by securing federal resources for hurricane preparedness, recovery, and resilient infrastructure along the Gulf Coast.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources
07

Foreign Policy and Foreign Aid

low salience

Democratic Amanda Green

Supports targeted foreign assistance with oversight

Green draws on her background working for a USAID partner managing global health, famine monitoring, and humanitarian programs in Ukraine and the Middle East. She supports protecting critical U.S. national security interests abroad while insisting on fiscal oversight of taxpayer funds. Her view of foreign relations is shaped by international emergency management experience.

  • Leverage professional experience in international development and USAID operations.
  • Protect vital foreign interests while maintaining strict oversight of federal taxpayer dollars spent abroad.

“I began my career with a leading USAID partner, and over the past decade have worked as an operations director and pricing expert supporting global health programs, famine monitoring systems, and critical efforts in Ukraine.”

Republican Austin Rogers No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-02 House Election Winner

90.5% Republicans
8.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 90.5DEMOCRATS 8.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-02 House winner?

91.0% Austin Rogers
10.0% Amanda Green
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16PARTY 93.4ROGERS 91.0GREEN 10.0PARTY 9.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-02 Republican nominee?

99.0% Austin Rogers
1.0% Nick Lewis
1.0% Evan Power

+5 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16ROGERS 99.0POWER 1.0ROWELL 1.0LEWIS 1.0MURPHY 1.0GROSS 1.0HENSARLING 1.0NORTON 1.0

Kalshi ↗

FL-02 Democratic nominee?

99.0% Amanda Green
1.0% Nic Zateslo
1.0% Yen Bailey

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GREEN 99.0LAWSON 1.0BAILEY 1.0ZATESLO 1.0BARNES 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.