Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Florida Safe R

Florida — 1st District

Portrait of Jimmy Patronis

Republican

Jimmy Patronis

Florida's 1st Congressional District general election features incumbent Republican Representative Jimmy Patronis facing Democratic challenger Gay Valimont on November 3, 2026. Patronis took office in April 2025 after winning a special election to succeed Matt Gaetz and secured the 2026 Republican nomination with 71.2% of the primary vote on August 18, 2026. Major political rating outlets including Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the district as Solid or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.5%
Democrats
3.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jimmy Patronis
99.0%
Gay Valimont
9.2%
Kalshi ↗
Jimmy Patronis
99.0%
Douglas C Chico
4.0%
John Frankman
1.0%
Cedric L Alexander
1.0%

All markets →

01

Environment, Energy & Corporate Governance

high salience

Patronis actively combats ESG financial standards and green investment mandates, while Valimont calls for public investments in clean energy infrastructure and climate resilience.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports clean energy and climate resilience

Valimont supports federal investments in clean energy infrastructure and coastal protection measures to combat climate change. She focuses on preserving public lands, protecting clean water, and securing flood control funding for Florida's coastlines.

  • Invest in clean energy infrastructure and conserve public lands
  • Enforce water regulations to prevent coastal and river pollution
  • Fund climate resilience, flood control, and disaster mitigation for coastal military bases and communities

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Opposes ESG policies and green mandates

Patronis strongly opposes Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards, describing them as anti-democratic and harmful to investors. As Florida CFO, he initiated the divestment of $2 billion in state treasury assets from BlackRock and opposed federal appointments aligned with climate-focused financial regulation.

  • Divested $2 billion in Florida Treasury assets from BlackRock over its ESG policies
  • Opposed Morningstar investment ratings targeting Israel-connected firms
  • Opposed Federal Reserve nominees advocating for climate-based banking regulations

“CFO Patronis made it a top priority to combat Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards when investing taxpayer dollars.”

“I think it's undemocratic of major asset managers to use their power to influence societal outcomes.”

02

Gun Policy & Public Safety

high salience

Valimont campaigns on implementing universal background checks and red flag laws, whereas Patronis is an NRA member who opposes new gun restrictions.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports stricter gun control laws

As a former grassroots leader for Moms Demand Action, Valimont treats gun violence as a critical public health crisis. She advocates for universal background checks, red flag laws, and stricter enforcement against domestic abusers.

  • Enact universal background checks on all firearm sales
  • Expand Extreme Risk Protection Orders (Red Flag Laws)
  • Enforce provisions of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act to close the boyfriend loophole
  • Invest in community-based violence prevention initiatives

“Gun violence is a deadly public health crisis that demands action.”

“Universal Background Checks on ALL gun sales to close existing loopholes and ensure every sale includes a thorough background check”

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Supports Second Amendment rights

Patronis is a member of the National Rifle Association (NRA) and supports gun rights, taking legislative actions aligned with law enforcement and public safety priorities.

  • Maintains membership in the National Rifle Association (NRA)
  • Voted Yea on H.R.875 to make driving under the influence grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
03

Voting Rights & Election Administration

high salience

Valimont advocates for automatic voter registration and federal voting rights protections, while Patronis voted for strict mandatory proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports expanding access and term limits

Valimont advocates for expanding voter registration methods and strengthening federal voter protections. She also supports reform measures such as campaign finance restrictions and congressional term limits.

  • Strengthen the Voting Rights Act and reform campaign finance laws
  • Establish automatic universal voter registration, same-day registration, and online registration
  • Implement congressional term limits of 4 terms for the House and 2 terms for the Senate

“A thriving democracy is built on the principle that every eligible citizen's voice should be heard.”

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Supports stricter voter identification rules

Patronis supports voter identification measures to protect election integrity. In the 119th Congress, he voted in favor of requiring citizenship verification for federal voter registration.

  • Voted Yea on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal election registration
04

Veterans & Military Affairs

medium salience

Valimont presents detailed policy commitments including building a full VA hospital in the district, whereas Patronis highlights endorsements from veteran organizations.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports expanded veteran healthcare and services

Valimont focuses heavily on supporting the military population in Florida's 1st District. Her platform includes expanding veteran healthcare options, combating veteran homelessness, and securing funding for a full VA hospital in the district.

  • Secure federal funding for a full VA hospital in District 1
  • Provide comprehensive mental healthcare and accessible choices for veterans
  • Improve G.I. Bill benefits and assist transitions to civilian careers
  • Provide transitional housing and supportive services to address veteran homelessness

“We must and will protect our military and veterans.”

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Supports military and veteran organizations

Patronis maintains strong ties with veteran advocacy groups and earned the endorsement of Veterans for America First during his congressional campaign.

  • Endorsed by Veterans for America First in his 2025 special election campaign
05

Economy & Government Spending

medium salience

Patronis backs Republican fiscal reconciliation packages and cryptocurrency regulation, while Valimont favors government incentives for affordable housing and support for labor unions.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports affordable housing and labor rights

Valimont seeks to reduce living costs by expanding affordable housing, supporting labor unions, and addressing wage inequality. She supports legislation designed to protect renters and reduce racial gaps in homeownership.

  • Incentivize affordable housing construction and expand rental assistance
  • Support the Place to Prosper Act to curb rent increases and prevent source-of-income discrimination
  • Support labor unions, equal pay legislation, and closing the gender pay gap

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Supports fiscal conservatism and deregulation

Patronis aligns with conservative economic policies, supporting federal budget constraints, regulatory framework for digital assets, and tax modifications. In Congress, he consistently voted for Republican budget resolutions and reconciliation measures.

  • Voted Yea on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1 reconciliation package)
  • Voted Yea on establishing the FY2025 federal budget resolution (H.Con.Res.14)
  • Voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S.1582) to establish a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins
06

Immigration & Border Security

medium salience

Patronis supports legislative mandates to deport undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes like DUIs, whereas Valimont emphasizes passing bipartisan border security legislation.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports bipartisan border security solutions

Valimont expresses support for bipartisan solutions to secure the border, criticizing congressional inaction and partisan division.

  • Advocates for bipartisan legislation to address border security challenges

“She believes there are bipartisan solutions to many problems that face Americans, like border security, that the current Congress is incapable of doing.”

Republican Jimmy Patronis

Supports stricter enforcement and deportation penalties

Patronis supports strict immigration enforcement measures, voting in favor of bills that penalize undocumented immigrants convicted of specific offenses.

  • Voted Yea on H.R.875 to make driving while impaired grounds for deportation or denial of entry for undocumented residents
07

Healthcare & Reproductive Rights

high salience

Valimont favors expanding federal programs like Medicaid and protecting abortion rights, whereas Patronis has no documented positions on healthcare in the provided campaign materials.

Democratic Gay Valimont

Supports universal healthcare and abortion rights

Valimont advocates for universal, affordable, quality healthcare and protecting reproductive freedoms. Drawing from personal experience caretaking for her late husband and son, she pledges to expand Medicaid, protect Medicare, defend the Affordable Care Act, and lower prescription drug costs.

  • Defend the Affordable Care Act, protect Medicare, and expand Medicaid
  • Lower prescription drug costs and ensure equal access to physical and mental healthcare
  • Protect access to comprehensive reproductive healthcare and the right to choose

“Universal, affordable, quality health care must be a priority.”

“Every person should have access to the care they need without wondering if they can afford to save their own life or the life of a loved one.”

Republican Jimmy Patronis No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

FL-01 House Election Winner

95.5% Republicans
3.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.5DEMOCRATS 3.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-01 House winner?

99.0% Jimmy Patronis
9.2% Gay Valimont
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16PATRONIS 99.0PARTY 92.3VALIMONT 9.2PARTY 4.5

Kalshi ↗

FL-01 Republican nominee?

99.0% Jimmy Patronis
4.0% Douglas C Chico
1.0% John Frankman

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16PATRONIS 99.0CHICO 4.0FRANKMAN 1.0ALEXANDER 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.