Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Connecticut Likely D

Connecticut — 5th District

In Connecticut's 5th Congressional District, four-term Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes faces Republican nominee Chris Shea in the November 3, 2026 general election. Hayes advanced automatically after the Democratic primary was canceled, while Shea won the August 11 Republican primary with 81% of the vote. Major handicappers rate the race as Solid Democratic (Cook Political Report, Inside Elections) or Likely Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball, DDHQ/The Hill) in a district with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+3. The matchup hinges on whether Hayes' extensive congressional record on education, gun control, healthcare, and economic relief resonates with voters against a Republican challenger.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
94.8%
Republicans
5.0%
Kalshi ↗
Jahana Hayes
95.0%
Chris Shea
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Chris Shea
99.0%
Jonathan De Barros
1.0%
John Bucciarelli
1.0%
Michele Botelho
1.0%

All markets →

01

Healthcare & Reproductive Rights

high salience

Hayes advocates for moving to a single-payer healthcare system and protecting abortion access without restriction, whereas Shea has not documented a position.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports single-payer healthcare and abortion access

Hayes supports moving toward a single-payer healthcare system to lower prescription drug costs and increase overall affordability. She strongly advocates for protecting women's access to reproductive healthcare and abortion rights without restrictions, while supporting federal efforts to combat the opioid epidemic.

  • Supports transitioning toward a single-payer healthcare system and lowering prescription drug costs.
  • Advocates for protecting women's access to reproductive healthcare and abortion rights without restriction.
  • Supports expanding access to addiction treatment to combat the opioid epidemic.

“I support moving towards a single-payer healthcare system, lowering prescription drug costs and making healthcare more affordable.”

“I will work to ensure that women have full access to reproductive healthcare and maintain their right to choose without restriction.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
02

Gun Policy

high salience

Hayes supports a federal assault weapons ban and universal background checks, while Shea has no documented position on gun policy.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports strict gun control measures

Hayes advocates for comprehensive federal gun violence prevention laws, including universal background checks and bans on assault weapons. In the 117th Congress, she voted in favor of the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022.

  • Voted Yea on the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 (H.R. 1808).
  • Supports universal background checks for all gun sales, including internet transactions.
  • Supports 'No Fly, No Buy' restrictions prohibiting firearm purchases by individuals on federal watchlists.
  • Backs federal funding for the CDC to research gun violence as a public health issue.

“Comprehensive gun reform is needed to combat this day-to-day gun violence and the root causes of it.”

“I will fight every day in Congress to promote and pass common sense legislation that will prevent gun violence.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
03

Immigration & Border Security

high salience

Hayes favors legal pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants while selectively voting on enforcement measures, whereas Shea has no published stance.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports pathway to citizenship and selective enforcement

Hayes supports comprehensive immigration reform featuring a legal pathway to citizenship and the DREAM Act for Dreamers. While opposing Republican immigration packages like the Secure the Border Act and SAVE Act, she voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act in 2025.

  • Supports passing the DREAM Act and creating a clear pathway to legal citizenship.
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) requiring mandatory DHS detention for noncitizens arrested for burglary or theft.
  • Voted Nay on the Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2) and the SAVE Act (H.R. 22).
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 875, which makes driving under the influence grounds for noncitizen deportation.

“It is clear that our current immigration system is outdated and not working to address the evolving needs of our district and country. I will work towards a clear, legal pathway to citizenship.”

“I support passing the DREAM Act to provide these young people with a path to citizenship.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
04

Economy & Taxes

medium salience

Hayes supports raising the federal minimum wage and federal job-training investments, while Shea has no documented position.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports wage increases and workforce training

Hayes prioritizes job creation through community college workforce training, raising the federal minimum wage, and closing the gender pay gap. In Congress, she consistently backed Democratic legislative initiatives like the Inflation Reduction Act and the American Rescue Plan Act.

  • Supports raising the federal minimum wage and passing equal pay measures.
  • Voted Yea on the Tax Relief for American Families and Workers Act of 2024 (H.R. 7024).
  • Voted Yea on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021.
  • Voted Nay on Republican debt ceiling and spending bills including the Limit, Save, Grow Act (H.R. 2811) and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1 in 2025).

“I will support raising the minimum wage. I also believe that women and men should receive equal pay for equal work.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
05

Education

medium salience

Hayes opposes diverting public school funds to private options and backs federal college affordability measures, whereas Shea has not issued an education platform.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports public education funding and affordability

As a former National Teacher of the Year, Hayes prioritizes federal support for public education, teacher development, and college affordability. She opposes proposals that divert public funding to private institutions and voted against restricting transgender student participation in female sports.

  • Advocates for protecting public education funding and opposing school voucher measures.
  • Supports expanding college affordability and trade/community college career training.
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).

“Preserving the public education system and viewing it as an investment in future generations will be a priority if I am elected.”

“I will support any measure to make college more affordable, open access to more students and oppose measures that divert public funding from our schools.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
06

Environment & Energy

medium salience

Hayes supports climate change initiatives and Brownfield cleanups while opposing traditional energy deregulation, whereas Shea has no documented stance.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports environmental protection and clean energy

Hayes focuses on protecting local district natural assets like rivers and lakes, funding Brownfield cleanups, and addressing climate change. Endorsed by Sierra Club Connecticut, she voted against major Republican energy deregulation legislation.

  • Supports federal funding for open space preservation and cleaning up contaminated Brownfields.
  • Voted Yea on the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 to fund clean energy programs.
  • Voted Nay on the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1 in 118th Congress).
  • Endorsed by Sierra Club Connecticut for the 2026 election cycle.

“Whether I am working to preserve the environmental treasures of the 5th District or fighting to combat the effects of climate change, I will be a strong voice and vote to preserve, protect, and enhance our environment.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
07

Democracy, Voting Rights & Government Integrity

medium salience

Hayes supports expanding federal voting options while opposing documentary citizenship requirements, while Shea has no documented position.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports expanded voting access and transparency

Hayes supports federal legislation to expand voting access, early voting, and automatic voter registration. In Congress, she voted for major Democratic voting rights legislation and backed the bipartisan Epstein Files Transparency Act, while opposing strict voter citizenship verification mandates.

  • Voted Yea on the For the People Act of 2021 (H.R. 1) to expand voting access and mail-in voting.
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22 in 2025) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.
  • Voted Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).
Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
08

Civil Rights & Social Equity

low salience

Hayes advocates for federal anti-discrimination protections and social equity legislation, while Shea has no documented stance.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports federal anti-discrimination protections

Hayes advocates for federal protections to eliminate racial, gender, and economic disparities. Her voting record includes support for anti-discrimination measures and federal marijuana decriminalization.

  • Advocates for legislation protecting civil rights against racism, sexism, homophobia, and religious persecution.
  • Voted Yea on the Antisemitism Awareness Act of 2023 (H.R. 6090).
  • Voted Yea on the MORE Act (H.R. 3617) to federalize marijuana decriminalization.

“I will fight against racism, xenophobia, classism, economic discrimination, housing discrimination, sexism, homophobia, religious and political persecution and the abuse of any civil liberties that threaten our democratic society.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources
09

Veterans

low salience

Hayes supports expanding federal healthcare and employment assistance for veterans, whereas Shea has not published a veterans platform.

Democratic Jahana Hayes

Supports expanded veteran healthcare and support programs

Hayes advocates for expanding physical and mental health services, education, and job training assistance for returning veterans. She consistently supported annual defense authorization bills that fund servicemember programs.

  • Supports federal assistance for returning veterans' physical and mental healthcare.
  • Backs educational and job-training programs tailored for military veterans and families.
  • Voted Yea on the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY 2022, 2023, and 2024.

“We need to commit ourselves to ensure our veterans have the opportunity to receive the assistance they need for their physical and mental health, in addition to programs for education and employment.”

Republican Chris Shea No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CT-05 House Election Winner

94.8% Democrats
5.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 94.8REPUBLICANS 5.0

Kalshi ↗

CT-05 House winner?

95.0% Jahana Hayes
1.0% Chris Shea
255075100AUG 3AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16HAYES 95.0PARTY 78.0PARTY 2.9SHEA 1.0

Kalshi ↗

CT-05 Republican nominee?

99.0% Chris Shea
1.0% Jonathan De Barros
1.0% John Bucciarelli

+1 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SHEA 99.0BUCCIARELLI 1.0BOTELHO 1.0BARROS 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.