Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Colorado Toss-up

Colorado’s 8th District race

The 2026 general election for Colorado's 8th Congressional District features incumbent Republican Gabe Evans facing Democratic state Representative Manny Rutinel in a highly competitive toss-up matchup. Evans won the seat in 2024 by less than one percentage point, making this battleground district a primary target for national Democrats seeking to flip the House. The race hinges largely on national economic messaging, immigration policy, Social Security protections, and contrasting legislative track records in the Colorado General Assembly.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
87.0%
Republicans
12.0%
Kalshi ↗
Manny Rutinel
86.0%
Gabe Evans
14.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living

high salience

Rutinel seeks to lower costs by expanding tax credits, capping drug prices, and raising taxes on corporations, whereas Evans favors reining in federal spending, cutting taxes, and eliminating regulations.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports middle-class tax credits and price caps

Rutinel proposes lowering costs for working families by expanding tax credits like the Earned Income Tax Credit, capping prescription drug prices, and eliminating hidden junk fees. He opposes federal tariffs that raise consumer prices and advocates making corporations and billionaires pay higher tax shares.

  • Sponsored HB24-1134 expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit for low-income families
  • Cosponsored HB25-1090 banning hidden junk fees for renters and consumers
  • Opposes broad tariffs and advocates capping insulin at $35 a month for all Americans

“I will lower costs for hardworking families by expanding tax credits for millions of working parents, making billionaires pay what they owe, and closing tax loopholes for corporations.”

“Trump’s policies mean higher prices on basics like groceries through tariffs, and budget cuts that take away earned benefits like Social Security, Medicaid, and Medicare to pay for massive tax cuts for the wealthy.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports spending cuts and tax reductions

Evans advocates lowering the cost of living by curbing federal deficit spending and repealing tax-and-regulate policies. He prioritizes balancing the budget and supporting free-market growth to fight inflation.

  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing tax increases
  • Voted for the reconciliation act (H.R.1) to adjust tax policy and federal program spending
  • Voted for H.Con.Res.14 to establish fiscal budget targets and deficit reduction instructions

“Lower the cost of living by reining in deficit spending and the tax-and-regulate policies that are crushing our economy.”

“No more taxes! Reduce deficit spending! Balance the budget! Lower Inflation and the cost of living!”

02

Border security and immigration

high salience

Rutinel advocates for paths to citizenship, ICE accountability, and state protections against federal detention, while Evans favors strict border enforcement and mandatory detention/deportation laws.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports comprehensive reform and ICE accountability

Rutinel supports a comprehensive immigration path to citizenship for long-term residents and DREAMers while prioritizing deportation efforts on violent criminals. He strongly opposes mass deportations and detention camps, demanding strict legal accountability and body cameras for federal immigration agents.

  • Cosponsored SB25-276 to keep Colorado law enforcement focused on public safety rather than assisting ICE actions
  • Calls for body cameras, judicial warrants, and strict legal standards for ICE agents
  • Supports border security resources targeted at stopping fentanyl and weapons smuggling

“In Congress, I’ll hold Trump, Noem, and ICE accountable while pushing for comprehensive immigration reform.”

“I am the only candidate in this race who has voted to protect Colorado immigrants from ICE brutality as a cosponsor of Colorado SB25-276, which keeps Colorado law enforcement focused on keeping us safe rather than supporting ICE’s cruelty.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports strict border enforcement and deportations

Evans prioritizes securing the southern border and enforcing strict immigration laws to safeguard local communities. He advocates for mandatory detention and deportation of undocumented immigrants convicted of crimes.

  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of unauthorized immigrants arrested for theft or burglary
  • Voted for H.R.875 making driving under the influence grounds for deportation or inadmissibility
  • Serves on the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security

“American Security, starting with the border”

03

Social Security and Medicare

high salience

Rutinel explicitly pledges to block any cuts or staffing reductions in Social Security and Medicare, whereas Evans supports comprehensive federal budget reform and spending reconciliation measures.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Opposes benefit cuts and workforce reductions

Rutinel vows to protect and strengthen Social Security and Medicare against benefit cuts or eligibility age increases. He opposes administrative staffing cuts and field office closures, proposing to fund the programs by requiring high earners to pay more taxes.

  • Endorsed by former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O'Malley
  • Opposes laying off Social Security staff or closing local field offices
  • Pledges to oppose any increases to the retirement age or benefit reductions

“Trump, Gabe Evans, and their billionaire donors plan to lay off half the Social Security workforce and shutter field offices, causing delay, disruption, and denial of earned benefits.”

“In Congress, I will fight to protect and strengthen Social Security so every senior can retire with dignity and every worker knows that the promise they paid into will be there for them when they retire.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports broad budget reform and sustainability

Evans supports broad fiscal discipline and reining in federal spending through budget reconciliation measures. While his platform focuses on balancing the federal budget, he has voted for party budget resolutions establishing overall outlay targets.

  • Voted for the H.Con.Res.14 budget resolution establishing federal budgetary levels through 2034
  • Voted for the reconciliation bill H.R.1 to reform federal program spending
04

Public safety and crime

high salience

Rutinel highlights voting for state police funding and targeted consumer protection laws, while Evans draws on his police background to call for repealing lenient criminal justice policies.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports police funding and strict victim protections

Rutinel emphasizes fully funding local police forces and law enforcement training while implementing tough penalties for human traffickers, child abuse, and cyber fraudsters. He highlights his record of directing state funding toward sheriffs and police recruitment.

  • Voted to allocate over $2 billion for Colorado police and created a $350 million recruitment/training fund
  • Cosponsored legislation imposing harsher penalties for child sex offenders and human trafficking
  • Proposes federal protections and labeling standards against AI-generated voice cloning and deepfake financial scams

“I delivered over $2 billion to support Colorado police, and championed a bipartisan effort, strongly backed by local County Sheriffs, to create a $350 million fund to recruit, thoroughly train, and retain dedicated officers...”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports law enforcement and strict criminal penalties

Evans relies on his decade of experience as a police officer to advocate for supporting law enforcement and reversing soft-on-crime legislation. He focuses on holding repeat offenders accountable and curbing auto theft and drunk driving.

  • Served ten years as an Arvada police officer and lieutenant
  • Recognized as a Mothers Against Drunk Driving (MADD) legislative champion in 2023
  • Advocates for repealing state policies that contributed to elevated auto theft rates

“Reduce crime, support law enforcement, and empower citizens to improve the safety of their communities.”

“The Leftist pro-crime policies that caused Colorado to become the #1 state in the nation for auto theft are crushing working families.”

05

Healthcare

medium salience

Rutinel supports expanding government negotiation of prescription prices and insurance coverage mandates, while Evans favors free-market healthcare options and regulatory reduction.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports expanding Medicare drug negotiations and protections

Rutinel advocates for expanding Medicare's drug pricing negotiation authority, capping insulin costs at $35 per month for all users, expanding rural telehealth, and prohibiting surprise medical billing at hospitals.

  • Sponsored SB24-141 expanding rural telehealth access
  • Cosponsored HB24-1438 strengthening Colorado's insulin price cap program
  • Cosponsored HB25-1002 requiring insurance coverage for mental health care

“Instead of paying $400 a month for insulin, seniors with diabetes should not pay more than $35 a month. I want to cap the cost of insulin at $35 a month for every American who needs it...”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports free-market options and mental health access

Evans advocates making healthcare affordable through free-market solutions and reducing administrative regulations. He highlights his award-winning legislative record on improving mental health access in Colorado.

  • Named Mental Health Colorado Legislator of the Year in 2023
  • Supports market-driven reforms to lower essential healthcare expenses

“I'll work to make essentials like food, energy, healthcare, and housing affordable.”

06

Guns and Second Amendment

medium salience

Rutinel cosponsored state bans on rapid-fire devices and semiautomatic weapons, while Evans is a concealed carry instructor who opposes gun control restrictions.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports restrictions on semiautomatic firearms

Rutinel advocates for gun control regulations to curb firearm violence, including prohibitions on rapid-fire devices and semiautomatic weapon restrictions.

  • Cosponsored SB25-003 restricting semiautomatic weapons and rapid-fire devices in Colorado

Republican Gabe Evans

Opposes new restrictions and defends firearm rights

Evans strongly defends Second Amendment rights and opposes additional gun control legislation. As a concealed carry firearms instructor, he emphasizes personal protection and constitutional rights.

  • Certified concealed carry firearms instructor
  • Affiliated with the National Rifle Association (NRA)

“Protect freedom of expression, defend the Second Amendment, and secure the rights of all Americans.”

07

Housing

medium salience

Rutinel champions direct government spending programs for affordable housing construction, whereas Evans relies on broad fiscal discipline and deregulation to improve affordability.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports dedicated public funding for affordable housing

Rutinel views affordable housing as a basic common good and supports state and federal funds to finance new housing construction. He also advocates for consumer protection laws to prevent landlords from assessing hidden fees.

  • Sponsored SB25-006 creating a $50 million state fund for affordable housing
  • Cosponsored HB25-1090 banning junk fees for renters

“Affordable housing should not be treated as just a commodity but rather as a common good that every Coloradan should be able to afford, whether someone works at McDonald’s, Walmart, or anywhere else.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports market-driven affordability solutions

Evans lists housing among essential necessities that must be made affordable by tackling inflation, reining in deficit spending, and curbing costly state and federal regulations.

  • Identifies lowering regulatory costs as a primary path to reducing housing expenses

“I'll work to make essentials like food, energy, healthcare, and housing affordable.”

08

Education

medium salience

Rutinel advocates expanding public vocational credentials and childcare support, whereas Evans champions school choice, parental rights, and homeschooling freedoms.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports vocational credentials and working parents

Rutinel focuses on expanding high school vocational certification programs so students can enter skilled trades. He also supports public education funding, paid family leave, and affordable childcare for working parents.

  • Supports expanded federal funding for high school vocational credentials
  • Advocates for paid family and medical leave, sick days, and childcare subsidies

“We need to increase funding for programs that allow interested high school students to graduate with an industry-recognized credential in addition to their high school diploma.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports school choice and parental rights

Evans strongly advocates for educational choice, school vouchers, and parental rights, emphasizing that families should be able to choose school options that best fit their children. He actively homeschools his own children.

  • Homeschools his two sons and champions homeschooling protections
  • Supports school choice and educational freedom initiatives

“Educational freedom means families can choose the education that works best for them.”

“As a father, I am a passionate advocate for education reform, school choice, and the home school community.”

09

Government ethics and election policy

medium salience

Rutinel focuses on banning congressional stock trading and dark money, while Evans emphasizes term limits and voter registration proof-of-citizenship laws.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports banning congressional stock trading and dark money

Rutinel supports aggressive anti-corruption reforms including banning stock trading for members of Congress, reversing Citizens United, taking a no-corporate-PAC pledge, and exploring alternative voting systems like approval voting.

  • Pledged to reject corporate PAC money for his campaign
  • Supports banning congressional stock trading and closing lobbyist loopholes
  • Advocates for campaign finance reform to eliminate dark money

“I will fight to ban stock trading by members of Congress and close lobbyist loopholes. I will fight to reverse Citizens United and get dark money out of politics.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports term limits and voter ID laws

Evans supports implementing mandatory term limits for elected officials and enforcing strict voter eligibility verification for federal elections.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register for federal elections

“I support term limits for both state and federal elected officials.”

10

Veterans and military affairs

low salience

Rutinel emphasizes expanding VA medical coverage for toxic exposure and benefit scam protection, while Evans highlights his military service and refocusing defense priorities on warfighting.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports expanding VA healthcare coverage and scam protections

Rutinel advocates for expanding VA treatment options for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits or radiation, expanding suicide prevention programs, and protecting veterans from fraudulent benefit claims.

  • Cosponsored SB25-282 protecting veterans from predatory benefit scams
  • Supports expanded VA coverage for environmental toxin exposure
  • Advocates for expanding community-based veteran suicide prevention programs

“The Department of Veterans Affairs should issue new rules to expand the types of cancers for which veterans exposed to radiation, burn pits, or water contamination can get treatment.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports military warfighting focus and veteran representation

Evans uses his 12-year career as an Army helicopter pilot to advocate for focusing the military strictly on warfighting capabilities rather than social agendas. He pledges strong advocacy for military families and veterans.

  • Served 12 years in the U.S. Army and Colorado Army National Guard as a UH-60 Black Hawk pilot and commander
  • Affiliated with the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW)

“Ensure our military is focused on warfighting and not politically correct agendas.”

11

Energy and environment

low salience

Rutinel emphasizes state regulations on industrial polluters and chemical bans, whereas Evans advocates expanding domestic energy production to lower prices.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports pollution enforcement and chemical bans

Rutinel focuses on strict environmental regulations, holding industrial polluters legally accountable, and banning toxic chemicals in consumer goods.

  • Sponsored HB24-1388 requiring impact analyses and real-time monitoring for polluters
  • Sponsored SB24-081 banning toxic forever chemicals (PFAS) in Colorado products
  • Served on the Colorado House Energy and Environment Committee

Republican Gabe Evans

Supports domestic energy production

Evans supports expanding domestic energy production and free-market policies to lower fuel and power costs for consumers.

  • Assigned to the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee (subcommittees on Energy and Environment)
  • Promotes domestic energy development as a path to lower cost of living

“Reduce the cost of living by supporting domestic energy production, agriculture, and the free market.”

12

Abortion

medium salience

Rutinel explicitly supports protecting abortion rights and shielding providers from out-of-state prosecution, whereas Evans' campaign materials do not state a position.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports protecting abortion access and bodily autonomy

Rutinel views abortion as a private medical decision between individuals and healthcare providers. He advocates for protecting bodily autonomy and shielding state healthcare providers from out-of-state legal prosecution.

  • Cosponsored SB25-129 shielding Colorado abortion providers from out-of-state prosecution
  • Opposes federal and state restrictions on reproductive healthcare access

“When it comes to abortion, the government needs to respect Americans’ freedom to make our own decisions about our own families without interference from politicians or anyone else.”

Republican Gabe Evans No documented position in our sources
13

Artificial Intelligence

medium salience

Rutinel presents a detailed regulatory plan for AI safety and deepfake fraud, whereas Evans has no documented position in the provided sources.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Supports safety regulations and developer accountability

Rutinel advocates for federal oversight of large AI developers, requiring independent safety evaluations, mandatory incident reporting, whistleblower protections, and advance notifications for AI-driven layoffs.

  • Supports requiring independent safety reviews before major AI model releases
  • Advocates for age checks and parental controls on AI chatbots for minors
  • Supports labeling requirements to prevent deepfake fraud

“Congress needs to make sure artificial intelligence works for people and not the other way around.”

Republican Gabe Evans No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

CO-08 House Election Winner

87.0% Democrats
12.0% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 87.0REPUBLICANS 12.0

Kalshi ↗

CO-08 House winner?

86.0% Manny Rutinel
14.0% Gabe Evans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31RUTINEL 86.0EVANS 14.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.