Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Colorado Toss-up

Colorado — 8th District

Colorado's 8th Congressional District battleground election features freshman incumbent Republican Gabe Evans facing Democratic State Representative Manny Rutinel. Evans won the newly created district by less than a percentage point in 2024, and major forecasters rate the 2026 general election as a Toss-up (with Decision Desk rating it Lean Democratic). The race hinges on economic cost-of-living concerns, immigration enforcement along the border and locally, healthcare spending, and safety net protections.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
74.5%
Republicans
24.5%
Kalshi ↗
Manny Rutinel
78.0%
Gabe Evans
24.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Evans seeks to lower costs by cutting deficit spending and taxes, whereas Rutinel advocates expanding tax credits for working families, curbing corporate tax loopholes, and eliminating tariffs and junk fees.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Expand tax credits and curb tariffs

Rutinel proposes lowering costs for working families by expanding the Earned Income Tax Credit, eliminating surprise junk fees, and stopping tariffs that drive up prices. He advocates closing tax loopholes for corporations and making billionaires pay what they owe.

  • Sponsored HB24-1134 expanding Colorado's Earned Income Tax Credit
  • Cosponsored HB25-1090 banning junk fees and hidden charges
  • Opposes tariffs and tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy

“I will lower costs for hardworking families by expanding tax credits for millions of working parents, making billionaires pay what they owe, and closing tax loopholes for corporations.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Cut deficit spending and taxes

Evans advocates reducing the cost of living by reining in federal spending, balancing the budget, and eliminating tax and regulatory burdens on businesses. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and voted for House budget reconciliation and spending measures.

  • Signed Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge
  • Voted for H.R.1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act) and H.Con.Res.14 budget resolution
  • Promises no new taxes and balanced budget measures

“Lower the cost of living by reining in deficit spending and the tax-and-regulate policies that are crushing our economy.”

“No more taxes! Reduce deficit spending! Balance the budget! Lower Inflation and the cost of living!”

02

Border security and immigration

high salience

Evans emphasizes strict border enforcement and deportations of noncitizens arrested for crimes, while Rutinel focuses on stopping ICE abuses, shielding local police from immigration enforcement, and establishing a pathway to citizenship.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Reform system and stop ICE abuses

Rutinel opposes aggressive ICE tactics and seeks comprehensive reform that provides a pathway to citizenship for long-term residents and DREAMers. He emphasizes keeping local law enforcement focused on community safety rather than federal immigration enforcement.

  • Cosponsored SB25-276 restricting local law enforcement assistance to ICE
  • Proposes requiring body cameras, judicial orders, and unmasking for ICE agents
  • Focuses deportation efforts strictly on violent criminals and human traffickers

“I will fight to keep our government focused on lowering costs and stop Trump’s abuses of power. In Congress, I’ll hold Trump, Noem, and ICE accountable while pushing for comprehensive immigration reform.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Secure border and enforce laws

Evans prioritizes border security as a pillar of national defense and supports strict enforcement against unauthorized immigration. He voted for federal legislation requiring proof of citizenship for voting and mandatory detention and deportation for noncitizens convicted of crimes.

  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R.22) requiring documentary proof of voter citizenship
  • Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of noncitizens arrested for theft
  • Voted for H.R.875 making DUI offenses grounds for deportation

“American Security, starting with the border”

03

Healthcare and prescription drug costs

medium salience

Rutinel advocates capping drug prices and expanding Medicare price negotiations, while Evans supports market-driven solutions to lower healthcare and insurance costs.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Lower drug prices and expand access

Rutinel advocates expanding Medicare's authority to negotiate prescription drug prices and capping out-of-pocket costs for essential medications. He also supports prohibiting surprise hospital billing and expanding telehealth coverage.

  • Cosponsored HB24-1438 expanding Colorado's insulin affordability capping program
  • Cosponsored SB24-141 expanding telehealth access in rural communities
  • Proposes capping insulin prices at $35 monthly for all Americans

“We need to expand Medicare’s power to negotiate lower prices for prescription drugs just like the VA does for our veterans.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Lower healthcare costs through competition

Evans identifies affordable healthcare as a key cost-of-living priority, emphasizing market-based solutions and regulatory reform to reduce expenses for families.

  • Identifies healthcare affordability as a core legislative passion
  • Voted for full-year appropriations and budget reconciliation bills

“I'll work to make essentials like food, energy, healthcare, and housing affordable.”

04

Gun policy and public safety

medium salience

Evans defends Second Amendment gun rights and stresses law enforcement support, whereas Rutinel cosponsored state bans on semiautomatic weapons and rapid-fire devices.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Restrict semiautomatic firearms and devices

Rutinel supports stricter gun control measures to reduce community violence, including bans on certain rapid-fire modifications and semiautomatic weapons.

  • Cosponsored SB25-003 restricting semiautomatic weapons and rapid-fire devices
  • Cosponsored SB25-282 protecting veterans from predatory scams

“SB25-003, to restrict semiautomatic weapons and rapid-fire devices in Colorado.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Defend gun rights and back police

Evans draws on his background as a police officer and concealed carry instructor to oppose soft-on-crime policies and defend Second Amendment rights. He advocates strict penalties for criminals rather than firearm restrictions on law-abiding citizens.

  • Former police officer and certified concealed carry instructor
  • Honored as Mothers Against Drunk Driving Legislative Champion in 2023
  • Pledges to defend the Second Amendment and support law enforcement

“Reduce crime, support law enforcement, and empower citizens to improve the safety of their communities.”

“Protect freedom of expression, defend the Second Amendment, and secure the rights of all Americans.”

05

Education and school choice

medium salience

Evans strongly advocates for educational freedom, school choice, and homeschooling, whereas Rutinel focuses on funding high school vocational trade programs.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Expand vocational training in schools

Rutinel emphasizes expanding career and technical education funding so high school students can earn industry credentials in skilled trades before graduation.

  • Supports increased funding for high school vocational credentials
  • Advocates preparing students for skilled trade careers directly out of high school

“We need to increase funding for programs that allow interested high school students to graduate with an industry-recognized credential in addition to their high school diploma.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Expand school choice and parental freedom

Evans advocates for educational freedom and school choice, asserting that parents should have the right to select the best schooling option for their children, including homeschooling. He also voted for federal measures restricting male-born athletes from female sports teams.

  • Homeschooling parent who actively promotes educational choice
  • Voted for the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R.28)
  • Opposes policies that trap children in underperforming schools

“Educational freedom means families can choose the education that works best for them.”

“As a father, I am a passionate advocate for education reform, school choice, and the home school community.”

06

Housing affordability

medium salience

Rutinel supports direct state funding and treating housing as a common good, while Evans links housing costs to overall economic regulation and inflation.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Fund affordable housing construction

Rutinel considers affordable housing a basic life necessity and supports government funding to expand housing supply for working-class residents.

  • Sponsored SB25-006 creating a $50 million affordable housing financing fund
  • Views housing as a common good rather than solely a market commodity

“Housing is not a luxury; it’s a basic life necessity.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Reduce housing costs through economic reform

Evans includes housing affordability in his overall cost-of-living reduction framework, aiming to lower expenses by curbing inflation and regulatory burdens.

  • Identifies housing affordability as a key legislative focus
  • Links housing costs to broader inflationary pressure and government regulation

“I'll work to make essentials like food, energy, healthcare, and housing affordable.”

07

Energy and environmental regulation

medium salience

Rutinel sponsored measures banning toxic chemicals and monitoring polluters, whereas Evans focuses on boosting domestic energy production to lower costs.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Regulate polluters and ban toxic chemicals

Rutinel supports environmental enforcement, pollution monitoring, and banning dangerous chemicals in consumer products. He previously served as CEO of Climate Refarm and served on the state Energy and Environment Committee.

  • Sponsored HB24-1388 cracking down on polluters and requiring real-time monitoring
  • Sponsored SB24-081 banning toxic forever chemicals in Colorado products
  • Served on the Colorado House Energy and Environment Committee

“HB24-1388, to crack down on polluters breaking the law and require impact analyses and real-time pollution monitoring.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Boost domestic energy production

Evans advocates expanding domestic energy production to reduce cost of living and support local industry. He serves on the U.S. House Energy and Commerce Committee.

  • Assigned to U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce and Environment subcommittee
  • Advocates domestic energy production to cut living costs and spur economic growth

“Reduce the cost of living by supporting domestic energy production, agriculture, and the free market.”

08

Veterans and military affairs

low salience

Evans focuses on refocusing the military on warfighting capabilities, whereas Rutinel advocates expanding VA medical coverage and mental health screenings.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Expand veteran healthcare and suicide prevention

Rutinel supports expanding VA healthcare coverage for toxic exposures and increasing community-based suicide prevention programs for veterans.

  • Advocates expanding VA cancer coverage for burn pit and radiation exposures
  • Supports community suicide prevention screenings and peer support programs
  • Cosponsored SB25-282 protecting veterans from benefits scams

“The Department of Veterans Affairs should issue new rules to expand the types of cancers for which veterans exposed to radiation, burn pits, or water contamination can get treatment.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Refocus military on warfighting capabilities

Evans draws on his 12 years of Army and Guard service to advocate for a military strictly focused on warfighting and defense rather than political agendas.

  • Served 12 years in U.S. Army and Colorado National Guard as Black Hawk pilot
  • Completed a combat deployment to the Middle East
  • Advocates focusing armed forces exclusively on warfighting readiness

“Ensure our military is focused on warfighting and not politically correct agendas.”

09

Government reform, elections, and artificial intelligence

low salience

Rutinel advocates congressional stock trading bans, campaign finance limits, and AI safety regulations, while Evans signed term limits pledges and voted for federal voter ID requirements.

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Ban stock trading and regulate AI

Rutinel supports banning congressional stock trading, overturning Citizens United, and refusing corporate PAC money. He also proposes strict safety rules, independent reviews, and layoff notification requirements for large AI developers.

  • Pledges not to accept corporate PAC money
  • Supports banning stock trading by members of Congress and exploring approval voting
  • Proposes mandatory AI safety incident reporting and pre-release model reviews

“I will fight to ban stock trading by members of Congress and close lobbyist loopholes. I will fight to reverse Citizens United and get dark money out of politics.”

Republican Gabe Evans

Enact term limits and voter ID

Evans supports term limits for federal and state officials and voted for federal legislation requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register to vote.

  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge
  • Voted for the SAVE Act (H.R.22) requiring proof of citizenship for voting
  • Supports limits on congressional and state tenure

“I support term limits for both state and federal elected officials.”

10

Social Security and Medicare

high salience

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Protect benefits and oppose cuts

Rutinel opposes any attempts to cut Social Security or Medicare benefits, raise the retirement age, or reduce agency staffing. He advocates funding the programs by requiring high earners to pay more in taxes.

  • Opposes raising the retirement age or cutting earned benefit programs
  • Pledges to stop proposed layoffs of Social Security Administration personnel
  • Endorsed by former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O'Malley

“Social Security is not a handout. It’s a promise that every American pays into so they can retire with dignity.”

Republican Gabe Evans No documented position in our sources
11

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Democratic Manny Rutinel

Protect abortion rights and provider immunity

Rutinel supports protecting reproductive freedom and bodily autonomy without government interference. He cosponsored state legislation shielding Colorado abortion providers from out-of-state legal action.

  • Cosponsored SB25-129 shielding abortion providers from out-of-state prosecution
  • Opposes government restrictions on private medical decisions

“When it comes to abortion, the government needs to respect Americans’ freedom to make our own decisions about our own families without interference from politicians or anyone else.”

Republican Gabe Evans No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CO-08 House Election Winner

74.5% Democrats
24.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 74.5REPUBLICANS 24.5

Kalshi ↗

CO-08 House winner?

78.0% Manny Rutinel
24.0% Gabe Evans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16RUTINEL 78.0EVANS 24.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.