Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Tilt D

California’s 48th District race

Portrait of Marni von Wilpert

Democrat

Marni von Wilpert

In California's 48th Congressional District, Democratic San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert faces Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond to succeed retiring Republican incumbent Darrell Issa in a seat redrawn under Proposition 50. The redistricting dramatically altered the district's partisan makeup, shifting it from a district Donald Trump won by 15 points in 2024 to one Kamala Harris would have won by 3 points. House. The race hinges on sharp contrasts over economic affordability, housing costs, immigration and ICE enforcement, energy policy, and reproductive freedom.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
95.0%
Republicans
4.5%
Kalshi ↗
Marni von Wilpert
94.2%
Jim Desmond
6.2%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and housing

high salience

Desmond emphasizes lowering taxes, deregulation, and free-market business growth, whereas von Wilpert focuses on cutting red tape specifically for affordable housing, anti-price-gouging measures, and strengthening labor unions.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Combating price gouging and expanding housing

Marni von Wilpert focuses on lowering everyday expenses by taking on corporate price gouging, opposing tariffs, and creating affordable housing. She supports expanding downpayment grants, cutting red tape to build homes near job centers, and passing the PRO Act to raise wages.

  • Cut red tape to fast-track affordable housing near job centers.
  • Oppose tariffs and crack down on corporate price gouging and grocery digital-coupon restrictions.
  • Pass the PRO Act to protect workers' rights to organize and bargain for higher wages.
  • Created downpayment grants for local teachers in San Diego.

“will cut red tape and make it easier to build more affordable housing to make sure people can live closer to where they work.”

“Marni will fight against Trump’s tariff war that has made essential goods more expensive – and take on the corporations raising prices to boost their profits”

Republican Jim Desmond

Lowering taxes and reducing regulation

Jim Desmond argues that government overregulation and rising taxes have made California unaffordable for families and seniors. He advocates for cutting red tape, empowering small businesses, and reducing energy and tax burdens to restore economic opportunity.

  • Lower taxes and curb out-of-control costs for insurance, gas, and electricity.
  • Reduce overregulation to support small businesses and job growth.
  • Promote energy choice to prevent rising utility costs.

“Making life more affordable by lowering taxes, reducing overregulation, and curbing out-of-control costs that are driving seniors and families out of the state.”

02

Immigration and border security

high salience

Desmond focuses on strict border control and mandatory off-shore asylum filing, while von Wilpert opposes aggressive ICE tactics in local communities and prioritizes citizenship pathways for Dreamers and long-term residents.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Reforming ICE and creating citizenship pathways

Marni von Wilpert strongly opposes aggressive ICE operations in local communities and demands government accountability. She advocates for comprehensive immigration reform that maintains secure borders while providing earned pathways to citizenship for long-term residents and Dreamers.

  • Get masked ICE personnel off local streets and hold ICE accountable for unconstitutional practices.
  • Provide legal pathways to citizenship for long-term residents and Dreamers.
  • Led San Diego's effort to join municipal legal action against ICE practices.

“In Congress, she will work to get ICE's masked mobs off our streets, stand up to Trump’s attacks, and protect our neighbors from lawless government overreach.”

“She supports meaningful reform that keeps our borders secure and provides legal pathways to citizenship for hardworking long-term residents and Dreamers who have grown up here as Americans.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Securing borders and enforcing immigration laws

Jim Desmond prioritizes border security and enforcement of existing immigration laws to prevent illegal border crossings. He advocates for requiring asylum claims to be processed abroad, providing Border Patrol with more resources, and creating streamlined legal pathways that prevent line-skipping.

  • Provide Border Patrol agents with tools, training, and resources.
  • Require asylum claims to be filed at U.S. embassies or designated centers abroad.
  • Enforce existing laws to stop illegal border crossings and visa overstays.

“Require asylum claims to be filed at U.S. embassies or designated centers abroad.”

“Protect our borders from illegal crossings.”

03

Energy and environmental policy

medium salience

Desmond opposes electric vehicle mandates and promotes nuclear energy and fossil fuel use, whereas von Wilpert opposes offshore drilling and focuses on corporate polluter litigation and green energy transitions.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Fighting climate change and corporate polluters

Marni von Wilpert views climate change as an urgent threat requiring robust protection of natural resources and transition to clean energy. She pledges to block coastal oil drilling, hold corporate polluters accountable, and invest in clean energy jobs.

  • Protect California beaches and coastal waters from offshore oil drilling.
  • Hold corporate polluters legally responsible for environmental contamination.
  • Reverse Trump-era environmental rollbacks and promote renewable energy jobs.

“Marni will protect our beaches and waters from Trump’s plan to drill for oil on our coast.”

“As a prosecutor, Marni took on corporate polluters like Monsanto for contaminating our waterways, and she’ll bring that same approach to Congress”

Republican Jim Desmond

Promoting energy choice and traditional fuels

Jim Desmond supports a balanced energy strategy that protects families from costly mandates like mandatory electric vehicles. He advocates for leveraging fossil fuels responsibly alongside nuclear power expansion, hydrogen, and carbon capture technology.

  • Oppose mandatory electric vehicle transitions and income-based electricity pricing.
  • Expand nuclear power through small modular reactors and modernized facilities.
  • Hold Mexico accountable for raw sewage spills impacting local California coastlines.
  • Support technological innovation in carbon capture and hydrogen energy.

“By forcing costly energy solutions and electric vehicles on people, we’re driving hardworking Californians out of the state.”

“Develop next-generation technologies, such as small modular reactors, to provide clean, reliable power 24/7.”

04

Healthcare and Social Security

medium salience

von Wilpert proposes expanding ACA with a public option and extending Medicare coverage, while Desmond focuses on reducing tax burdens and protecting seniors from rising living expenses.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Expanding ACA and protecting entitlements

Marni von Wilpert advocates for strengthening the Affordable Care Act, introducing a public option, and protecting Social Security against cuts or privatization. She supports capping prescription costs, empowering Medicare drug price negotiations, and adding dental, vision, and mental healthcare coverage.

  • Protect and expand the Affordable Care Act and introduce a public healthcare option.
  • Oppose any cuts or privatization of Social Security.
  • Expand Medicare's power to negotiate prescription drug prices and cap out-of-pocket expenses.
  • Extend coverage to include dental, hearing, vision, and mental health.

“Marni will fight to protect and expand the Affordable Care Act, restore ACA tax credits, and include a public option that gives families more affordable choices.”

“She will also stand up to protect Social Security, oppose any cuts or privatization, and ensure the program is strengthened for current and future retirees.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supporting seniors, caregivers, and veterans

Jim Desmond outlines support for seniors, caregivers, and veterans as part of his broader effort to protect vulnerable populations from high living costs. He opposes new taxes and bureaucratic mandates that burden fixed-income seniors.

  • Support seniors on fixed incomes facing rising costs of living.
  • Oppose new taxes and fees that increase healthcare and living expenses.
  • Prioritize veterans' healthcare access through dedicated support.

“seniors on fixed incomes are being forced out of their homes due to skyrocketing costs of insurance, gas, and electricity.”

05

Gun safety and public safety

medium salience

von Wilpert champions strict federal gun controls including bans on ghost guns and assault weapons, whereas Desmond emphasizes traditional law enforcement support.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Enacting strict gun control legislation

Marni von Wilpert supports comprehensive gun violence prevention legislation, citing her experience coming of age during the Columbine high school shooting. She authored California's first law banning untraceable ghost guns and supports federal assault weapon bans and universal background checks.

  • Ban assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.
  • Require universal background checks and strengthen red flag laws.
  • Wrote California's first municipal ban on untraceable ghost guns.
  • Hold firearm manufacturers legally accountable for gun violence.

“Marni wrote the first law in California banning the sale of untraceable ghost guns — and won her lawsuit when the gun lobby sued her.”

“She’ll keep fighting to pass gun violence prevention laws that protect our communities and put our safety first, including banning assault weapons and high-capacity magazines, requiring universal background checks”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supporting law enforcement and public safety

Jim Desmond emphasizes supporting law enforcement personnel and restoring public safety through strong community policing. He earned endorsements from major law enforcement associations across San Diego County.

  • Support law enforcement officers and public safety personnel.
  • Prioritize public safety across local communities.
  • Endorsed by the Deputy Sheriffs Association of San Diego County and Oceanside Police Officers' Association.

“restoring public safety by supporting law enforcement”

06

Government reform and democracy

medium salience

Desmond targets government reform through mandatory term limits, while von Wilpert focuses on banning congressional stock trading and federal voting rights legislation.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Banning stock trading and protecting voting rights

Marni von Wilpert prioritizes ethics reform and voting rights protection to curb political corruption. She advocates for banning congressional stock trading, passing federal voting rights legislation, and overturning Citizens United to eliminate dark money in elections.

  • Ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks.
  • Pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the For the People Act.
  • Overturn Citizens United to remove dark money from federal campaigns.

“Marni will crack down on corruption by banning members of Congress from trading stocks and using their positions for personal gain.”

“we must pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the For the People Act to protect free and fair elections and expand access to the ballot, and overturn Citizens United to get dark money out of our elections.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supporting congressional term limits

Jim Desmond focuses government reform on accountability and term limits for elected officials. He advocates for cutting through political bureaucracy and putting constituents before party loyalty.

  • Enact mandatory term limits for members of Congress.
  • Promote government transparency and accountability.
  • Prioritize constituent needs over party line voting.

“We absolutely need term limits.”

“Public service isn’t about party loyalty or personal ambition—it’s about standing up for the people you represent”

07

Foreign policy and defense

medium salience

Desmond focuses his military policy on creating vocational training programs for service members, whereas von Wilpert focuses on diplomatic engagement, supporting NATO and Ukraine, and opposing unauthorized military actions.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Strengthening alliances and diplomatic engagement

Marni von Wilpert advocates for a diplomacy-first foreign policy that strengthens international alliances like NATO and supports global health programs. She opposes unauthorized military interventions, supports Ukraine against Russian aggression, and advocates for a two-state solution in the Middle East.

  • Oppose unauthorized foreign military engagements and reallocate resources home.
  • Support Ukraine, NATO, and a negotiated two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians.
  • Restore funding for USAID and global health programs like PEPFAR.

“In the Middle East, she’ll push for a two-state solution that ensures lasting peace and security for both Israelis and Palestinians, stand with Ukraine in its fight against Putin’s aggression, and support America’s role in NATO.”

“Marni opposes Trump’s unauthorized wars that rip away, and she’ll work to rebuild America’s alliances and standing in the world.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Expanding vocational military education

Jim Desmond proposes creating a Vocational Military Education program to connect military service with high-quality technical job training. As a Navy veteran, he seeks to incentivize enlistment while equipping service members with transferable civilian career skills.

  • Establish a Vocational Military Education program offering free vocational training for volunteer service.
  • Incentivize military enlistment while filling national workforce shortages in technical trades.
  • Provide service members with transferable skills in engineering, healthcare, coding, and skilled trades.

“The Vocational Military Education program is a transformative initiative that redefines how we support both our military and workforce development.”

“encourage volunteer military service by offering free, high-quality vocational education and training in diverse fields”

08

Homelessness and mental health

medium salience
Democratic Marni von Wilpert No documented position in our sources

Republican Jim Desmond

Treatment-first approach with accountability

Jim Desmond champions a treatment-first response to homelessness that targets underlying addiction and mental health disorders. He advocates for expanding treatment facilities, removing Medicaid barriers for psychiatric hospitals, and allowing involuntary care for individuals in crisis.

  • Fund treatment-first programs for addiction and mental health rather than temporary housing alone.
  • End the Medicaid rule restricting funding for larger psychiatric hospitals.
  • Empower doctors and first responders to authorize involuntary care during severe crisis.
  • Tie federal homeless funding directly to measurable reductions in street populations.

“Fund treatment-first programs that address the root causes of homelessness: addiction and mental illness.”

“Give doctors and first responders the ability to intervene when lives are at risk, including involuntary care for those in crisis.”

09

Abortion and reproductive rights

medium salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Codifying Roe v. Wade federally

Marni von Wilpert is a vocal defender of reproductive rights who authored municipal protections in San Diego following the Dobbs decision. In Congress, she promises to vote to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law and restore funding to Planned Parenthood.

  • Vote to codify Roe v. Wade protections into federal law.
  • Reverse federal cuts to Planned Parenthood.
  • Protect healthcare clinics and patients from harassment and intimidation.

“When Roe v. Wade was overturned, Marni passed a law in San Diego to protect abortion rights, and she'll lead the fight to codify Roe into federal law.”

“Marni will lead the charge to reverse Trump’s cuts to Planned Parenthood and be a deciding vote to codify Roe v. Wade into law”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources
10

LGBTQ+ rights

low salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Passing the Equality Act and protecting rights

Marni von Wilpert, a member of the LGBTQ+ community, promises to pass the Equality Act to prohibit nationwide discrimination. She opposes bans on gender-affirming care, book bans targeting LGBTQ+ voices, and conversion therapy.

  • Pass the federal Equality Act to guarantee anti-discrimination protections nationwide.
  • Protect access to gender-affirming care and oppose school-based restrictions.
  • Oppose book bans targeting LGBTQ+ authors and ban conversion therapy.

“In Congress, she will work to pass the Equality Act so the protections that Californians enjoy are guaranteed nationwide.”

“She will face the attacks head-on, from bans on gender-affirming care to efforts to silence LGBTQ+ students in our schools.”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources
11

Technology and innovation

low salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Providing regulatory clarity for emerging tech

Marni von Wilpert supports setting trustworthy standards for emerging technologies to bolster economic growth and protect consumers. She endorses bipartisan legislation providing regulatory framework for new technologies.

  • Support legislation such as the CLARITY Act and the GENIUS Act.
  • Establish clear regulatory standards for safe development of emerging technologies.
  • Ensure technological advancements benefit workers, small businesses, and the broader economy.

“Marni supports legislation like the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and similar efforts that provide regulatory clarity for the safe development of emerging technologies”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

CA-48 House Election Winner

95.0% Democrats
4.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 95.0REPUBLICANS 4.5

Kalshi ↗

CA-48 House winner?

94.2% Marni von Wilpert
6.2% Jim Desmond
255075100AUG 5AUG 27SEP 18OCT 10OCT 31WILPERT 94.2DESMOND 6.2

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.