Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Tilt D

California — 48th District

Portrait of Marni von Wilpert

Democrat

Marni von Wilpert

The 2026 election for California's 48th Congressional District features Democratic San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert against Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, following the retirement of Republican incumbent Darrell Issa. Mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50 dramatically altered the district's boundaries, shifting a seat won by Donald Trump in 2024 to a 50-47 majority for Kamala Harris. Strategic control of the U.S. House hinges on battleground seats like CA-48, with major forecasters rating the race as Lean Democratic (Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball), Likely Democratic (Decision Desk HQ), and Tilt Democratic (Inside Elections).

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
88.5%
Republicans
11.5%
Kalshi ↗
Marni von Wilpert
88.0%
Jim Desmond
10.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living

high salience

Von Wilpert advocates lowering costs through corporate price enforcement, tariff opposition, and stronger labor protections, whereas Desmond seeks affordability through tax cuts, deregulation, and reining in government spending.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports labor protections and lower costs

Von Wilpert promises to lower everyday expenses by opposing tariffs and taking on corporate price gouging. She emphasizes her record as an Obama administration labor attorney, supporting the PRO Act, banning digital-only grocery coupons, and cracking down on wage theft.

  • Opposes tariffs that raise prices on consumer goods
  • Supports passing the PRO Act to strengthen labor union rights and wages
  • Cracked down on wage theft and digital-only grocery store coupons in San Diego

“Marni will fight against Trump’s tariff war that has made essential goods more expensive – and take on the corporations raising prices to boost their profits”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports tax cuts and deregulation

Desmond focuses on restoring California's economic competitiveness by lowering taxes, cutting regulations, and reining in government spending. He highlights the impact of rising gas, electricity, and insurance costs on families and seniors on fixed incomes.

  • Opposes new taxes and advocates lowering tax burdens for families and seniors
  • Supports reducing regulatory burdens on small businesses
  • Seeks to curb skyrocketing energy, gas, and utility costs

“lower costs that are driving seniors and families out of the state”

02

Border security

high salience

Von Wilpert focuses on curtailing federal ICE tactics and establishing pathways to citizenship, while Desmond prioritizes strict border enforcement, requiring overseas asylum processing, and ending illegal entry.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports ICE accountability and immigration reform

Von Wilpert opposes aggressive immigration enforcement tactics and supports legal pathways to citizenship for long-term residents and Dreamers. On the San Diego City Council, she led challenges against ICE tactics and opposes federal raids in local communities.

  • Supports legal pathways to citizenship for Dreamers and long-term residents
  • Opposes aggressive ICE raids and weapons training in local communities
  • Led local efforts to join lawsuits challenging ICE enforcement tactics

“In Congress, she will work to get ICE's masked mobs off our streets, stand up to Trump’s attacks, and protect our neighbors from lawless government overreach.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports border enforcement and line-standing immigration

Desmond calls for strict border enforcement, requiring asylum claims to be filed at foreign embassies, and eliminating incentives for illegal entry. He also proposes streamlining legal immigration for skilled workers and essential economic sectors while addressing cross-border sewage pollution.

  • Requires asylum claims to be filed at U.S. embassies abroad rather than at the border
  • Demands full enforcement of border security laws and enhanced tools for Border Patrol
  • Advocates modernizing legal immigration for skilled workers, families, and agriculture
  • Holds Mexico accountable for cross-border sewage pollution

“Our nation is built on the strength of its people and the rule of law. It’s time to fix our broken immigration system by securing our border, creating a legal process that works, and ensuring that no one skips the line.”

03

Homelessness

high salience

Von Wilpert prioritizes municipal downpayment grants and fast-tracking affordable housing construction, while Desmond focuses on treatment-first homelessness policies, involuntary mental health care, and psychiatric hospital funding.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports affordable housing and downpayment grants

Von Wilpert focuses on expanding affordable housing supply by cutting red tape and fast-tracking low-income housing construction. She highlights her municipal record of creating downpayment grant programs for local public servants like teachers.

  • Supports cutting red tape to fast-track construction of affordable housing
  • Created downpayment grant programs for local teachers in San Diego
  • Advocates workforce housing to allow workers to live near their jobs

“Marni will cut red tape and make it easier to build more affordable housing to make sure people can live closer to where they work.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports treatment-first policies and involuntary care

Desmond advocates a four-step, treatment-first approach to homelessness, focusing on mandatory mental health and addiction recovery over temporary shelter. He proposes expanding psychiatric facility capacity by amending federal Medicaid rules and authorizing medical intervention for individuals in crisis.

  • Proposes treatment-first funding tied to addiction recovery and mental health care
  • Seeks to repeal the Medicaid rule limiting funding for larger psychiatric hospitals
  • Supports empowering doctors and first responders to provide involuntary crisis care
  • Demands federal spending transparency tied to tangible reductions in street homelessness

“Fund treatment-first programs that address the root causes of homelessness: addiction and mental illness.”

04

Energy

high salience

Von Wilpert advocates corporate pollution accountability and banning offshore drilling, whereas Desmond emphasizes energy choice, nuclear power expansion, and protecting fossil fuel access to keep utilities affordable.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports clean energy and coastal protection

Von Wilpert treats climate change as an urgent crisis, pledging to hold corporate polluters accountable and reverse environmental rollbacks. She opposes offshore oil drilling along California's coast and supports clean energy investments to create jobs and lower household costs.

  • Opposes offshore oil drilling along California's coastline
  • Supports holding corporate polluters legally and financially accountable for contamination
  • Advocates clean energy infrastructure to achieve energy independence and job growth

“As a prosecutor, Marni took on corporate polluters like Monsanto for contaminating our waterways, and she’ll bring that same approach to Congress”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports energy choice and nuclear expansion

Desmond opposes EV mandates and income-based utility rates, calling for a balanced energy strategy that retains natural gas and fossil fuels. He supports expanding nuclear power, small modular reactors, and agricultural innovation to ensure energy reliability and affordability.

  • Opposes electric vehicle mandates and income-based electricity pricing
  • Supports expanding nuclear power, including small modular reactors and regulatory streamlining
  • Promotes consumer choice among natural gas, renewables, and hybrid technologies
  • Advocates agricultural R&D funding for water efficiency and local food security

“Common-sense climate solutions can protect our environment, provide clean water, lower costs, and support our communities—without sacrificing livelihoods or our energy independence.”

05

Healthcare

medium salience

Von Wilpert supports creating a public option and expanding Medicare benefits, while Desmond focuses on reforming Medicaid rules for psychiatric care and protecting fixed-income seniors.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports expanding ACA and public option

Von Wilpert pledges to defend and expand the Affordable Care Act with a public option, while protecting Social Security against cuts or privatization. She supports expanding Medicare to cover dental, vision, hearing, and mental health services, alongside capping out-of-pocket drug costs.

  • Supports expanding the ACA with a public option and restored tax credits
  • Advocates expanding Medicare coverage to include dental, vision, hearing, and mental health
  • Supports Medicare drug price negotiations and out-of-pocket cost caps
  • Opposes any cuts or privatization of Social Security

“Marni will fight to protect and expand the Affordable Care Act, restore ACA tax credits, and include a public option that gives families more affordable choices.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports senior care and Medicaid reform

Desmond addresses healthcare primarily through senior care and reform of federal Medicaid restrictions that limit funding for larger psychiatric care facilities. He emphasizes supporting caregivers, seniors on fixed incomes, and expanding mental health treatment infrastructure.

  • Supports lifting federal Medicaid limitations on funding large psychiatric treatment facilities
  • Advocates policy support and resources for seniors, caregivers, and veterans
  • Focuses on lowering overall healthcare and living costs for fixed-income seniors

“Expand resources to build treatment facilities and end the Medicaid rule that blocks funding for larger psychiatric hospitals.”

06

Guns

medium salience

Von Wilpert focuses on strict gun control regulations including ghost gun and assault weapon bans, whereas Desmond emphasizes backing law enforcement and traditional public safety measures.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports assault weapon bans and ghost gun bans

Von Wilpert advocates comprehensive gun control legislation, including federal assault weapon bans, universal background checks, and red flag laws. On the San Diego City Council, she authored California's first municipal ban on untraceable ghost guns.

  • Authored California's first municipal ban on untraceable ghost guns
  • Supports federal bans on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines
  • Advocates universal background checks, red flag laws, and holding gun manufacturers liable

“Marni wrote the first law in California banning the sale of untraceable ghost guns — and won her lawsuit when the gun lobby sued her.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports law enforcement and public safety

Desmond focuses on public safety by strongly supporting law enforcement agencies and officers. He has earned endorsements from local police associations and deputy sheriff groups while opposing policies he views as soft on crime.

  • Supports law enforcement officers and public safety agencies
  • Endorsed by the Oceanside Police Officers' Association and San Diego Deputy Sheriffs Association
  • Advocates restoring public safety through law enforcement backing and crime deterrence

“restoring public safety by supporting law enforcement”

07

Democracy

medium salience

Von Wilpert targets ethics reforms such as stock-trading bans and voting rights legislation, whereas Desmond focuses on enacting congressional term limits.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports stock trading bans and voting rights expansion

Von Wilpert prioritizes ethics and election reform, advocating a ban on stock trading by members of Congress and pushing for federal voting rights legislation. She supports passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, the For the People Act, and overturning Citizens United.

  • Supports banning members of Congress from trading individual stocks
  • Advocates passing the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and For the People Act
  • Supports overturning Citizens United to eliminate dark money in campaigns

“Marni will crack down on corruption by banning members of Congress from trading stocks and using their positions for personal gain.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports congressional term limits

Desmond advocates government accountability through strict term limits for elected officials and reining in federal spending. He stresses putting constituents over party politics and maintaining independence in office.

  • Supports implementing congressional term limits
  • Pledges independent oversight and accountability for federal agencies
  • Emphasizes putting community needs ahead of party loyalty

“We absolutely need term limits.”

08

Foreign policy

medium salience

Von Wilpert outlines detailed foreign policy commitments to NATO, Ukraine, and a two-state solution, while Desmond focuses on military veteran support and vocational service programs.

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports NATO, diplomacy, and two-state solution

Von Wilpert advocates strong international alliances, supporting NATO, aid to Ukraine, and a two-state solution in the Middle East. Drawing on her Peace Corps service, she supports foreign aid programs like PEPFAR and USAID while opposing unauthorized military engagements.

  • Supports NATO, aid to Ukraine against Russian aggression, and a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine
  • Advocates maintaining global health programs like PEPFAR and restoring USAID funding
  • Opposes unauthorized military actions and slashing domestic spending for military conflicts
  • Demanded an official return date for the deployed USS Abraham Lincoln naval crew

“In the Middle East, she’ll push for a two-state solution that ensures lasting peace and security for both Israelis and Palestinians, stand with Ukraine in its fight against Putin’s aggression, and support America’s role in NATO.”

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports military service and veteran transition

Desmond approaches national security through the lens of military service, drawing on his background as a U.S. Navy veteran. He focuses on military readiness and facilitating career transitions for active-duty personnel into civilian workforce trades.

  • Advocates for veterans' care and military readiness programs
  • Leverages U.S. Navy veteran background to support active-duty service members
  • Proposes integrating vocational trade education with military service

“As someone who’s served as a U.S. Navy veteran, airline captain, and County Supervisor, I believe the job is about leadership, responsibility, and putting people before politics”

09

Abortion

medium salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports codifying federal abortion rights

Von Wilpert strongly supports protecting abortion access, promising to vote to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law and stop nationwide abortion restrictions. She highlights her local legislation in San Diego shielding providers and patients from harassment.

  • Supports codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law
  • Opposes a nationwide abortion ban and restrictions on reproductive care
  • Passed San Diego city ordinance protecting local abortion providers and patients

“When Roe v. Wade was overturned, Marni passed a law in San Diego to protect abortion rights, and she'll lead the fight to codify Roe into federal law.”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources
10

LGBTQ+ rights

medium salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports Equality Act and civil rights protections

As an LGBTQ+ community member and civil rights attorney, von Wilpert pledges to pass the Equality Act to secure non-discrimination protections nationwide. She opposes restrictions on gender-affirming care, school book bans, conversion therapy, and efforts to limit marriage equality.

  • Supports passing the Equality Act for nationwide LGBTQ+ non-discrimination protections
  • Opposes bans on gender-affirming care and book bans targeting LGBTQ+ authors
  • Pledges to defend marriage equality, adoption rights, and outlaw conversion therapy nationwide

“In Congress, she will work to pass the Equality Act so the protections that Californians enjoy are guaranteed nationwide.”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources
11

Veterans

low salience
Democratic Marni von Wilpert No documented position in our sources

Republican Jim Desmond

Supports free vocational education for military service

Desmond proposes a Vocational Military Education program that offers free, high-quality trade and technical training—such as plumbing, coding, healthcare, and engineering—to individuals who enlist in the military. The initiative aims to boost military enlistment while filling national shortages in skilled trade and STEM sectors.

  • Proposes free vocational trade training in fields like coding, plumbing, and healthcare for military volunteers
  • Aims to boost military enlistment and address national skilled labor and STEM shortages
  • Provides transferable workforce skills and economic mobility for active-duty members and veterans

“The Vocational Military Education program is a transformative initiative that redefines how we support both our military and workforce development. The concept is simple yet powerful: encourage volunteer military service by offering free, high-quality vocational education and training”

12

Technology

low salience

Democratic Marni von Wilpert

Supports regulatory framework for emerging tech

Von Wilpert advocates federal legislation establishing regulatory clarity for emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and digital assets. She supports initiatives like the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act to ensure technological innovation benefits workers and protects public trust.

  • Supports regulatory clarity legislation like the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act for emerging tech
  • Advocates standards for emerging technology that protect workers and expand financial access
  • Promotes American leadership in global technology innovation

“Marni supports legislation like the CLARITY Act, the GENIUS Act, and similar efforts that provide regulatory clarity for the safe development of emerging technologies that are essential to growing the American economy.”

Republican Jim Desmond No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-48 House Election Winner

88.5% Democrats
11.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 88.5REPUBLICANS 11.5

Kalshi ↗

CA-48 House winner?

88.0% Marni von Wilpert
10.0% Jim Desmond
255075100AUG 5AUG 16AUG 27SEP 7SEP 16WILPERT 88.0DESMOND 10.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.