Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Tilt D

California — 45th District

Incumbent Democratic Representative Derek Tran faces Republican nominee Chuong Vo in California's 45th Congressional District for the November 3, 2026 general election. Following mid-decade redistricting under California Proposition 50, the district shifted from D+1 to D+5 by adding Democratic-leaning areas of Los Angeles County, though forecasters expect it to remain highly competitive. Tran advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with 53.8% of the vote, while Vo emerged as the top Republican candidate with 15.3%. Forecasters currently rate the general election between Likely Democratic and Lean/Tilt Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
92.0%
Republicans
8.5%
Kalshi ↗
Derek Tran
93.3%
Chuong Vo
6.3%

All markets →

01

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Tran supports raising the minimum wage and investing in clean energy manufacturing, whereas Vo calls for cutting federal spending and auditing agencies to combat inflation.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports living wage and middle-class tax cuts

Tran advocates raising the minimum wage to a living wage and cutting taxes for middle-class families and small businesses. Drawing on his experience as a workers' rights attorney and small business owner, he supports investments in clean energy and advanced manufacturing to expand high-paying jobs.

  • Advocates raising the minimum wage to a living wage
  • Pushes for middle-class and small business tax cuts
  • Supports investments in domestic advanced manufacturing and clean energy jobs

“Derek is fighting to make the minimum wage a living wage so families can keep up with rising costs, advocate for safer working conditions, and ensure that all workers can afford housing and look forward to a secure retirement.”

“working to cut taxes for middle-class families and small businesses and bring back more good-paying jobs in clean energy and advanced manufacturing”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports spending cuts and auditing waste

Vo focuses on curbing federal spending to reduce inflation, applying municipal fiscal discipline to federal budgets, and auditing agencies to eliminate fraud and waste. He advocates streamlining infrastructure permits to lower everyday costs for families.

  • Pledges to vote for cuts to wasteful federal spending to curb inflation
  • Proposes agency-wide audits to target fraud and duplication
  • Supports streamlining regulatory permits to lower consumer costs

“Families feel it in their wallets: at the pump, the grocery store, and in their insurance bills. I’ll vote to cut wasteful spending that fuels inflation”

“audit waste and fraud across all agencies; streamline permits and infrastructure that lower costs”

02

Public safety and fentanyl

high salience

Vo prioritizes harsher penalties for drug trafficking and organized retail theft task forces, while Tran combines police funding with investments in violence prevention and rehabilitation.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports police funding and community violence prevention

Tran advocates putting more law enforcement officers on the street while investing in violence prevention and rehabilitation programs. He has secured federal funding for local fire and police infrastructure in district cities including Fullerton, Garden Grove, and Artesia.

  • Secured nearly $1 million for public safety infrastructure in Artesia and $250,000 for Fullerton
  • Supports increased law enforcement presence paired with violence prevention and rehabilitation programs
  • Introduced the Hazardous Materials Transparency Act following an industrial safety incident in Garden Grove

“He’s worked to put more police on the streets to crack down on rising crime and put dangerous criminals in prison. And Derek has fought for more investments in violence prevention and rehabilitation programs to address the root causes of crime.”

“Congressman Derek Tran Secures Nearly $1 Million to Strengthen Public Safety in Artesia”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports law enforcement funding and fentanyl penalties

Drawing on his 28 years in law enforcement, Vo prioritizes increasing federal penalties for fentanyl trafficking, targeting international supply chains, and deploying task forces against organized retail theft. He supports funding police equipment and de-escalation training.

  • Pushes to increase penalties for fentanyl trafficking and target cartel supply chains
  • Supports federal task forces and data-sharing to combat organized retail theft
  • Advocates fully funding law enforcement equipment, body-worn cameras, and de-escalation training

“I’ll always back law enforcement and work to strengthen trust with standards that work for both local and federal authorities: body-worn cameras, de-escalation training, and proven community-policing tactics.”

“increase penalties for fentanyl trafficking; expand data-sharing against organized theft; fully fund training and equipment”

03

Immigration and border security

high salience

Vo emphasizes completing physical border technology and infrastructure, while Tran focuses on reforming detention facility oversight and protecting immigrant civil rights.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports targeted enforcement and immigrant protections

Tran voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act requiring detention of undocumented individuals arrested for theft offenses, but opposed broad measures like the SAVE Act and DUI deportation legislation. He introduced legislation targeting abusive ICE detention facilities and opposes discrimination against immigrant communities.

  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5)
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) and DUI deportation legislation (H.R. 875)
  • Introduced legislation to oversight and reform abusive ICE detention centers

“With our democracy under threat from Donald Trump and his MAGA allies, Derek has fought to defend our rights and values. He will fight back against the extremists who want to... discriminate against LGBTQ+, immigrant, and minority communities”

“Congressman Derek Tran Introduces Bill to Fight Back Against Abusive ICE Detention Centers”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports border technology and modernizing legal immigration

Vo advocates finishing border technology and physical infrastructure while speeding up asylum and visa processing. As an immigrant, he supports modernizing the legal immigration system to help families and employers navigate the process without delays.

  • Pushes to complete border infrastructure and technology
  • Calls for accelerating asylum and visa processing times
  • Supports modernizing legal immigration pathways for families and employers

“finish border technology and infrastructure; speed up asylum and visa processing; and modernize legal immigration so families and employers can follow the law without years of delay”

04

Healthcare and reproductive rights

medium salience

Tran actively campaigns on protecting federal abortion rights and lowering drug costs, whereas Vo's healthcare platform focuses strictly on Medicare solvency and anti-fraud measures.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports abortion rights and lowering drug costs

Tran is pro-choice, supporting federal protections for abortion, funding for Planned Parenthood, and access to contraception. Drawing on his background as a pharmacy owner, he advocates lowering prescription drug prices and defending Medicare and Medicaid against cuts.

  • Supports federal protections for abortion rights, birth control, and Planned Parenthood funding
  • Voted for bipartisan legislation lowering prescription drug costs
  • Opposes Republican attempts to reduce funding for Medicaid and Medicare

“As the father of a young daughter, Derek is 100% pro-choice and has stood strong to protect funding for Planned Parenthood and access to critical women’s health services like birth control and cancer screenings.”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports Medicare solvency through anti-fraud enforcement

Vo focuses his healthcare platform on protecting Medicare and Social Security for current seniors by cracking down on program fraud and duplication to ensure long-term solvency. His platform text does not document a position on abortion rights.

  • Pledges to protect earned Social Security and Medicare benefits for seniors
  • Advocates cracking down on fraud, waste, and duplication to ensure benefit solvency

“protect Social Security and Medicare for today’s seniors, and apply a mayor’s discipline to every dollar: targeting fraud and duplication”

05

Foreign policy, China, and local anti-communist measures

medium salience

While both candidates strongly oppose the Chinese Communist Party, Vo advocates municipal bans on Vietnamese Communist entities using local public property, whereas Tran focuses on human rights advocacy for Vietnamese political prisoners and supply chain independence.

Democratic Derek Tran

Opposes Chinese aggression and advocates human rights in Vietnam

As the son of Vietnamese refugees, Tran opposes Chinese Communist Party aggression and supports reducing reliance on Chinese supply chains. He has led bipartisan legislation to curb CCP influence and advocated for political prisoners and human rights in Vietnam.

  • Led bipartisan legislative efforts to protect against Chinese Communist Party influence
  • Pushes to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains and counter unfair trade practices
  • Advocates for political prisoners and human rights in Vietnam, including journalist Le Huu Minh Tuan

“Derek’s family fled a murderous communist regime in Vietnam. He knows firsthand the devastating impact of totalitarian governments and is committed to standing firm against Chinese Communist rule.”

“Congressman Tran Leads Bipartisan Effort to Protect Americans From Chinese Communist Party Influence”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports Taiwan defense and bans on Vietnamese Communist influence

Vo advocates strengthening Taiwan's defense and economic ties under the Taiwan Relations Act to counter CCP aggression. Locally, he calls for prohibiting the Vietnamese Communist Party and its affiliates from acquiring, leasing, or renting public property in California cities like Westminster and Garden Grove.

  • Supports strengthening Taiwan's defensive capabilities and economic ties against CCP coercion
  • Proposes banning Vietnamese Communist Party affiliates from acquiring or leasing public property in California
  • Pledges oversight on foreign aid while avoiding open-ended foreign conflicts

“In Congress, I will stand firmly with the people of Taiwan and push back against CCP aggression, coercion, and intimidation.”

“I support protecting Westminster and Garden Grove’s public assets from influence by the Vietnamese Communist government and its affiliates and I support banning them from acquiring, leasing, or renting city property in those cities or anywhere in California.”

06

Government ethics and reform

medium salience

Both candidates explicitly support banning congressional stock trading, but Tran places additional emphasis on campaign finance reform while Vo emphasizes budget audits and lobbying penalties.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports stock trading bans and campaign finance reform

Tran introduced and led efforts in Congress to ban stock trading by members of Congress. He advocates for campaign finance reform, increasing donor transparency, and limiting special interest lobbyist influence.

  • Led efforts in Congress to ban congressional stock trading
  • Supports campaign finance reform and lobbyist restrictions
  • Promotes transparent campaign disclosures to prevent corporate election buying

“Derek will fight to end this culture of corruption in our politics. He supports efforts to limit the influence and power of lobbyists and special interests, and supports strong campaign finance reforms and more transparency”

“ICYMI: Congressman Derek Tran Leads Effort to Ban Congressional Stock Trading”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports congressional stock trading ban and ethics enforcement

Vo promises to end congressional insider stock trading, demand full budget transparency, and strengthen penalties for ethics and lobbying violations. He cites his local record of returning campaign contributions received after municipal council elections.

  • Pledges to vote for a complete ban on stock trading by members of Congress
  • Demands full budget transparency and tough federal audits
  • Supports stronger penalties for ethics and lobbying violations

“I’ll fight to end congressional insider stock trading. I’ll demand transparent budgets, tough audits, and stronger ethics rules, because taxpayer dollars should go to results, not insiders.”

07

Education

medium salience

Vo emphasizes parental rights and keeping politics out of schools, while Tran focuses on raising teacher salaries and opposing gender-based sports restrictions.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports teacher pay raises and public school investments

Tran advocates raising teacher salaries, investing in community public schools, and expanding early childhood and vocational education. He voted against H.R. 28, which restricts transgender athletes in women's sports, and carries endorsements from major teachers' unions.

  • Supports raising wages for public school teachers and investing in public schools
  • Advocates expanding vocational, STEM, and early childhood education programs
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act (H.R. 28)

“Derek has fought to ensure every child has a quality education by working to raise wages for teachers, investing in community public schools, supporting programs like early childhood education that give students more opportunities to succeed, and providing more vocational education and job training.”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports parental rights and expanding CTE and STEM

Vo advocates keeping politics out of classrooms, expanding Career Technical Education (CTE) and STEM pathways, and protecting parental involvement in schools. He supports increased funding for evidence-based literacy instruction and tutoring.

  • Pushes to keep classrooms focused on academic performance rather than politics
  • Supports expanding CTE and STEM educational pathways
  • Advocates for evidence-based reading instruction and parental rights in education

“Parents should be partners in education. Let’s raise reading, math, and science performance, expand CTE and STEM pathways, and keep classrooms focused on learning, not politics.”

08

Homelessness and housing

medium salience

Vo advocates auditing homeless funding and enforcing no-camping bans near parks and schools, whereas Tran focuses on securing federal funding for affordable housing construction.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports federal funding for affordable housing

Tran advocates for federal support to increase housing affordability for working families. He secured $250,000 for affordable housing in Orange County and called for the passage of bipartisan federal housing legislation.

  • Secured $250,000 in federal funds for affordable housing in Orange County
  • Advocates for legislation to ensure workers can afford housing
  • Urges passage of bipartisan federal housing legislation

“Congressman Derek Tran Secures $250,000 for Affordable Housing in Orange County”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports homeless funding audits and no-camping enforcement

Vo demands strict accountability for federal homeless grants, advocating to strip funding from ineffective programs and tie treatment funding to measurable results. He supports enforcing no-camping rules near schools and parks.

  • Pledges to audit federal homeless grants and defund ineffective programs
  • Prioritizes addiction and mental health treatment beds tied to outcomes
  • Supports enforcing no-camping bans near public schools and parks

“Funding must come with accountability and outcomes: treatment, shelter, and recovery that move people off the streets, while enforcing no-camping rules near schools and parks.”

09

Veterans and defense policy

low salience

Tran voted to end U.S. military funding to Israel, whereas Vo strongly supports military aid to Israel while opposing open-ended U.S. troop deployments.

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports veteran employment protections and ending Israel military aid

An Army veteran, Tran introduced legislation to reinstate federal veteran employees and defend disabled veterans' healthcare access. On foreign affairs, he voted to end U.S. military funding to Israel and voiced criticism of military engagements in Iran.

  • Introduced legislation to protect and reinstate federal jobs held by military veterans
  • Voted to end U.S. military funding to Israel
  • Opposed foreign military actions without congressional war powers authorization

“Congressman Derek Tran Issues Statement After Voting to End U.S. Military Funding to Israel”

“Congressman Derek Tran Champions Disabled Veterans’ Access to Affordable Healthcare Amid VA Cuts”

Republican Chuong Vo

Supports military aid to Israel while avoiding foreign troop deployments

Vo strongly supports military aid to Israel as vital to U.S. national security while advocating foreign aid oversight. He opposes sending U.S. ground troops into open-ended foreign conflicts.

  • Unequivocally supports military aid to Israel for U.S. national security
  • Opposes deploying U.S. ground forces in open-ended foreign conflicts
  • Calls for strict oversight and accountability on all foreign aid

“I support Israel because it is unequivocally in the national security interests of the United States.”

“reserve U.S. forces for extraordinary circumstances like saving American lives. We do not need boots on the ground and endless wars that cost too many American lives and treasure.”

10

Gun safety

medium salience

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports universal background checks and assault weapon bans

Tran advocates for stricter gun safety measures, including universal background checks and bans on assault weapons. He earned the 2026 Gun Sense Candidate distinction from Moms Demand Action.

  • Supports universal background checks for gun sales
  • Advocates for a federal ban on assault weapons
  • Earned Moms Demand Action Gun Sense distinction

“He has taken on the NRA by fighting for common-sense gun safety laws like universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons.”

“Moms Demand Action Awards Congressman Derek Tran 2026 Gun Sense Candidate Distinction”

Republican Chuong Vo No documented position in our sources
11

Emerging technology and cryptocurrency

low salience

Democratic Derek Tran

Supports federal regulatory framework for stablecoins and blockchain

Tran advocates establishing clear federal regulations for blockchain technology and digital assets. He voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) to create a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins.

  • Voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S. 1582) establishing stablecoin regulation
  • Advocates clear blockchain regulation to foster financial innovation and safeguard consumers

“Establishing clear regulations for this technology will foster growth, safeguard consumers, and enhance national security.”

Republican Chuong Vo No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-45 House Election Winner

92.0% Democrats
8.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 92.0REPUBLICANS 8.5

Kalshi ↗

CA-45 House winner?

93.3% Derek Tran
6.3% Chuong Vo
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16TRAN 93.3VO 6.3

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.