Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Toss-up

California — 22nd District

Portrait of David G. Valadao

Republican

David G. Valadao

The 2026 general election for California's 22nd Congressional District features a battleground matchup between Republican incumbent David G. Valadao and Democratic challenger Randy Villegas. Following the passage of Proposition 50 in 2025, district boundaries were redrawn, creating a competitive Central Valley seat that voted for Joe Biden by 17 points in 2020 but favored Donald Trump by 2 points in 2024. Forecasters rate the race as Toss-up (Cook Political Report), Tilt Republican (Inside Elections), and Lean Democratic (Sabato's Crystal Ball and Decision Desk HQ). The election hinges on economic relief, healthcare access, water infrastructure, agricultural policy, and immigration reform in a district vital to House control.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
87.5%
Republicans
12.5%
Kalshi ↗
Randy Villegas
91.8%
David G. Valadao
9.9%

All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

Villegas advocates for a single-payer Medicare for All system with federal drug price caps, whereas Valadao supports a market-based model designed to increase private insurance options.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports Medicare for All and price caps

Villegas views healthcare as a human right and strongly advocates for a Medicare for All system to eliminate medical debt and claims denials. He supports capping prescription drug costs, negotiating prices directly with pharmaceutical companies, making insulin $35 for everyone, and expanding Medicare to cover dental and vision.

  • Support Medicare for All including dental and vision coverage
  • Cap prescription drug prices, including $35 insulin
  • Directly negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies

“In Congress I’ll fight for Medicare for All, take on big Pharma by negotiating the price of prescription drugs directly, bringing down costs like making insulin $35 for everyone.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports market-based healthcare reform

Valadao supports a market-based healthcare approach aimed at lowering costs and expanding competitive insurance choices while protecting vulnerable populations such as seniors, low-income families, and individuals with pre-existing conditions. He opposes federal government control over healthcare choices.

  • Implement market-based reforms with competitive health insurance choices
  • Maintain access and protections for seniors, the poor, and pre-existing conditions
  • Prevent federal government takeover of patient medical decisions

“David believes the best healthcare is a market-based approach to healthcare reform that provides individuals with competitive choices and addresses the needs of those unable to afford healthcare insurance.”

02

Cost of living and Economy

high salience

Villegas seeks to ease cost-of-living pressures through higher minimum wages, corporate price controls, and higher taxes on the wealthy, while Valadao emphasizes tax cuts, federal spending reductions, and regulatory relief.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Advocates for working families and fair taxes

Villegas focuses on lowering the cost of living by cracking down on corporate price gouging in groceries, housing, and energy. He advocates raising the federal minimum wage, implementing paid family leave, passing the PRO Act for labor unions, and increasing taxes on the top 1% to give working families a tax break.

  • Pass the PRO Act to strengthen labor union organizing rights
  • Raise the federal minimum wage and institute paid family leave
  • Increase taxes on the top 1% of earners and corporations to relieve burdens on working families

“Whether it’s groceries, energy bills, or your rent or mortgage, the richest corporations in this country are squeezing us for everything we have.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Advocates tax cuts and regulatory relief

Valadao prioritizes curbing inflation and bringing down gas prices by slashing burdensome federal regulations and lowering taxes on small businesses. He supports balancing the federal budget to address national debt and signed a taxpayer protection pledge against tax hikes.

  • Reduce taxes and regulatory burdens on small businesses
  • Balance the federal budget to curb national debt
  • Signed the Americans for Tax Reform Taxpayer Protection Pledge

“We need to protect our water, put an end to out-of-control inflation and outrageous gas prices, work to bring new jobs and job training to the Central Valley, and stand up for seniors and veterans to ensure they get the benefits they deserve.”

03

Water and Infrastructure

high salience

Villegas focuses on job-creating infrastructure repairs and rural drinking water access, whereas Valadao focuses on expanding reservoir storage and delivering water allocations to agriculture.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports infrastructure investments and clean water

Villegas supports federal investments in regional infrastructure to repair roads and bridges and expand broadband internet to rural areas. He emphasizes guaranteeing safe, clean, and affordable drinking water for all Central Valley communities.

  • Invest in repairing crumbling roads, bridges, and water systems
  • Expand broadband internet access to rural and underserved communities
  • Ensure safe, clean drinking water access for local communities

“We have the power to create millions of well-paid jobs that also serve the needs of our community by building and repairing our crumbling infrastructure, including broadband internet to rural and underserved areas.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Advocates expanding water supply and reservoirs

Valadao prioritizes securing a reliable water supply for Central Valley agriculture and communities by expanding reservoir storage and aging water infrastructure. He authored the San Joaquin Valley Emergency Water Delivery Act and co-led passage of the WIIN Act.

  • Build new reservoirs and expand aging water infrastructure
  • Co-led bipartisan passage of the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation (WIIN) Act
  • Authored the San Joaquin Valley Emergency Water Delivery Act (H.R. 3964)

“In the Central Valley, life as we know it is dependent upon securing a reliable and clean supply of water.”

04

Agriculture

high salience

Villegas emphasizes farmworker safety protections and ending trade tariffs, while Valadao relies on his background as a dairy farmer to promote regulatory relief and competitive tools for growers.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Protects farmworkers and opposes tariffs

Villegas aims to protect Central Valley agriculture by opposing retaliatory tariffs that harm local farm income and supporting small family farms against corporate monopolies. He also emphasizes safeguarding farmworkers from extreme heat and environmental hazards.

  • End trade tariffs that hurt local farm revenues
  • Support small local farms against corporate monopolies
  • Protect farmworker health and safety during extreme heat

“But angering our trading partners with frivolous tariffs has killed the revenue of farmers, and small businesses across the country.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Champions Central Valley agricultural competitiveness

Valadao draws on his experience as a local dairy farmer to champion policies that keep California agriculture globally competitive. He works to ensure growers and ranchers have regulatory tools, water resources, and international market access.

  • Promote policies supporting California's $35 billion agricultural economy
  • Ensure farmers have regulatory flexibility to remain internationally competitive
  • Leverage personal experience as a dairy farmer and agricultural leader

“As a dairy farmer, David understands the challenges that our farmers and ranchers face as a part of California’s competitive agriculture industry.”

05

Immigration

medium salience

Both candidates favor a pathway to citizenship, but Villegas highlights stopping mass deportations and repatriating deported veterans, while Valadao emphasizes agricultural guest worker programs and criminal law enforcement priorities.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports legal pathway and ending deportations

Villegas calls for comprehensive immigration reform providing an earned path to citizenship for undocumented residents. He opposes blanket detentions and mass deportations, advocates bringing home deported U.S. military veterans, and supports addressing origin-country root causes.

  • Provide an earned path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
  • End blanket detention and enforcement policies that divide families
  • Bring home deported military veterans and address root causes of migration

“We need a working system that protects our communities while providing a path to citizenship so our undocumented neighbors, friends and coworkers aren’t forced to live in the shadows.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports citizenship path and agricultural guest workers

Valadao supports a responsible pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents living in the U.S. He advocates creating an agricultural guest-worker program to secure a reliable farm labor force and directing law enforcement focus toward criminal offenders.

  • Support a reasonable pathway to citizenship for undocumented residents
  • Establish an agricultural guest worker program for farm labor stability
  • Focus law enforcement tools on undocumented immigrants who commit serious crimes

“David supports a reasonable and responsible pathway to citizenship for those wishing to enter our country and those already here.”

06

Government Reform and Corruption

medium salience

Villegas focuses on campaign finance reform, banning corporate PACs, and prohibiting stock trading, while Valadao emphasizes curbing federal bureaucracy and maintaining local representative accessibility.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Opposes corporate money and congressional stock trading

Villegas refuses corporate PAC donations and advocates overturning Citizens United to eliminate corporate spending in elections. He supports banning stock trading for members of Congress, prohibiting former lawmakers from becoming lobbyists, and enacting congressional term limits.

  • Reject corporate PAC money and work to overturn Citizens United
  • Ban congressional stock trading and prohibit post-office lobbying careers
  • Support term limits for members of Congress

“I’m proud to be the only candidate in this race that has never taken corporate PAC money, because I’m here to work for the people, not special interests.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Advocates transparency and federal bureaucracy reform

Valadao stresses congressional transparency, accountability, and accessibility by remaining rooted in his local community. He supports reforming government agencies to serve taxpayers rather than Washington bureaucrats.

  • Promote lawmaker transparency and accessibility to local voters
  • Reform federal agencies to curb bureaucratic overreach
  • Maintain primary residence on his Hanford dairy farm

“David believes the role of government agencies is to serve the interest of every American, not what is best for bureaucrats in Washington.”

07

Education

medium salience

Villegas advocates tuition-free public higher education and increased pay for school staff, whereas Valadao stresses local educational control and expanding technical trade programs.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports tuition-free public college and higher teacher pay

Villegas supports making public colleges, community colleges, and trade schools tuition-free to address student loan debt. Drawing on his experience as a school board trustee, he calls for higher salaries for teachers and support staff and expanded community apprenticeship centers.

  • Provide tuition-free public higher education, community colleges, and trade schools
  • Raise wages for teachers, custodians, and school support staff
  • Expand local technical education and job training centers

“In order to build up our young people to enter the competitive global workforce, we must make public colleges - career, technical and community - tuition free, and take on the out-of-control student debt crisis.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports local educational control and trade schools

Valadao opposes federal "one-size-fits-all" education mandates, advocating local flexibility for parents and educators. He supports expanding vocational, technical, and trade school options to prepare students for local jobs.

  • Oppose federal education mandates in favor of local community control
  • Expand vocational and trade school choices for students
  • Ensure parents and local educators direct community education needs

“A “one-size-fits-all” approach of Washington bureaucrats only hinders the education of our nation’s children.”

08

Energy and Environment

medium salience

Villegas advocates transitioning to renewable energy with job protections and polluter accountability, while Valadao supports expanding traditional fossil fuel and renewable production by cutting federal regulations.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports renewable transition and polluter accountability

Villegas supports transitioning to renewable energy while guaranteeing secure, well-paid jobs for traditional oil and gas workers. He advocates holding corporate polluters accountable for air and water contamination, protecting public lands, and calling for a moratorium on new data centers.

  • Transition to renewable energy while protecting wages and job security for oil and gas workers
  • Enforce accountability for corporate polluters affecting regional air and water quality
  • Called for a moratorium on new data center construction

“Any transition to clean and affordable renewable energy must guarantee that all energy workers have well-paid, secure jobs and better wages, so they can keep their own lights on too.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports expanding all domestic energy production

Valadao advocates expanding domestic energy production across traditional oil/natural gas and renewable solar and hydro resources. He opposes regulations and litigation that he argues kill jobs and raise energy prices, and opposes state high-speed rail spending.

  • Expand domestic oil, natural gas, solar, and hydroelectric energy production
  • Eliminate regulatory red tape and litigation impeding energy development
  • Oppose high-speed rail construction spending

“David supports expanding our domestic energy potential to reduce our dependence on foreign energy and save money here at home.”

09

Veterans

low salience

Villegas prioritizes bringing home deported military veterans, while Valadao focuses on VA administrative reform and expanding medical care access.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Supports deported veterans and service benefits

Villegas focuses his veterans platform on halting the deportation of military veterans who served the nation and bringing home those who were deported. He advocates for full recognition and service benefits for all military personnel.

  • Repatriate deported military veterans
  • Ensure full healthcare, education, and economic support for veterans

“I will act with urgency to bring our veterans home, and fight for an immigration system that recognizes the dignity of everyone who has bravely served our country.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports VA reform and veteran healthcare access

Valadao advocates reforming the Department of Veterans Affairs to deliver high-quality physical and mental healthcare. He co-sponsored legislation improving healthcare access for veterans and supports post-service employment and educational opportunities.

  • Restore VA healthcare standards for physical and mental health care
  • Co-sponsored legislation improving healthcare access for veterans
  • Support employment, job training, and education resources for former service members

“The VA has been falling short in their duty to veterans and needs to be restored to the pinnacle of care for our heroes.”

10

Foreign Policy and National Security

low salience

Villegas calls for ending foreign military interventions and redirecting tax dollars to domestic programs, while Valadao supports defense spending through his Appropriations Defense Subcommittee role.

Democratic Randy Villegas

Opposes foreign wars and prioritizes domestic investment

Villegas advocates ending U.S. involvement in foreign military conflicts and reducing overseas military spending. He proposes redirecting tax dollars toward domestic healthcare, education, and community infrastructure rather than foreign military intervention.

  • End involvement in foreign military conflicts including in the Middle East
  • Reallocate tax dollars from foreign military interventions to domestic community investment
  • Maintain foreign aid for extreme poverty relief while ending foreign war funding

“Whether it’s Iraq, Afghanistan, or Palestine - Americans are sick of endless wars.”

Republican David G. Valadao

Supports strong national defense funding

Valadao serves on the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense and consistently supports federal defense appropriations. He advocates equipping service members with necessary resources to preserve national security and protect freedom.

  • Serves on the House Committee on Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense
  • Supports federal funding packages for defense readiness and military personnel
  • Ensure service members have tools and health support during and after duty

“We owe a great debt of gratitude to those who fight to preserve our freedom. Whether it be ensuring they have the tools to stay safe in battle, access to high quality healthcare, or education and employment opportunities here at home, our men and women in uniform deserve our gratitude and our support.”

11

Housing

low salience

Democratic Randy Villegas

Bans corporate home buying and builds affordable housing

Villegas proposes banning Wall Street firms and corporate landlords from purchasing single-family homes to prevent local housing inflation. He advocates for a federal housing program to build affordable homes while creating union jobs.

  • Ban corporate landlords and Wall Street firms from purchasing single-family homes
  • Establish a federal construction initiative for affordable housing with union jobs

“I will fight to end corporate ownership of single-family homes.”

Republican David G. Valadao No documented position in our sources
12

Artificial Intelligence

low salience

Democratic Randy Villegas

Regulates AI safety, worker protections, and data privacy

Villegas advocates establishing strict federal regulations for artificial intelligence to protect workers from job replacement. He supports data privacy rights, age verification for high-risk AI platforms, and a moratorium on new data center construction.

  • Protect worker job security against AI automation replacement
  • Enact data privacy guardrails preventing commercial data exploitation
  • Require age verification and parental consent for high-risk AI tools

“Technology should be a tool for workers, not a threat of replacement.”

Republican David G. Valadao No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-22 House Election Winner

87.5% Democrats
12.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 87.5REPUBLICANS 12.5

Kalshi ↗

CA-22 House winner?

91.8% Randy Villegas
9.9% David G. Valadao
255075100AUG 3AUG 15AUG 27SEP 8SEP 16VILLEGAS 91.8VALADAO 9.9

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.