Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Safe D

California — 18th District

Portrait of Zoe Lofgren

Democrat

Zoe Lofgren

Incumbent

Incumbent Democratic Representative Zoe Lofgren faces Republican challenger Shane Lewis in California's 18th Congressional District following the June 2, 2026 top-two primary. The matchup hinges on contrasting visions regarding immigration reform, economic and tax policy, water and energy resources, and federal governance. Major election rating outlets, including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill, rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
97.4%
Republicans
2.4%
Kalshi ↗
Zoe Lofgren
94.9%
Shane Lewis
3.5%

All markets →

01

Immigration and border security

high salience

Lewis advocates combining strict border security and enforcement with legal assimilation reform, while Lofgren consistently opposes Republican immigration enforcement and voter documentation bills.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Opposes restrictive border legislation

Lofgren, an immigration attorney who serves on the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement, opposes conservative border enforcement and deportation bills. She voted against measures requiring documentary proof of citizenship for voting registration and mandatory detention for undocumented individuals accused of theft.

  • Voted against the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) mandating DHS detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for theft or burglary.
  • Voted against the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) requiring documentary proof of citizenship for federal voting registration.
  • Voted against H.R. 875 making DUI convictions grounds for deportation or inadmissibility.

“As an immigration attorney, I understand the frustrations inherent in dealing with our immigration service agencies.”

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports rule of law and immigration reform

Lewis advocates for practical immigration reform that pairs border security and enforcement with legal naturalization pathways and assimilation. He criticizes Lofgren for blocking border reforms and trapping undocumented workers in conditions of exploitation.

  • Proposes combining Republican respect for law and order with Democratic principles of liberty.
  • Pledges to protect American workers and end migrant exploitation.
  • Identifies naturalization and immigration policy as a primary legislative focus.

“Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren has repeatedly blocked reforms to secure the border and policies that protect citizens and migrants alike.”

“I will combine the best of both sides — Republican respect for law and order with Democratic love of liberty — to pass practical immigration reform that ends exploitation, protects American families first, and restores hope.”

02

Economy and tax policy

high salience

Lewis proposes replacing current income tax codes with a low flat tax and deregulation, whereas Lofgren opposes Republican budget reconciliation bills and spending cuts.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Opposes Republican budget reconciliation cuts

Lofgren opposes Republican tax cuts and spending reductions, citing systemic economic flaws and corporate greed. She voted against major House Republican fiscal packages, including debt limit restrictions and budget reconciliation bills.

  • Voted against H.R. 1 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act reconciliation package).
  • Voted against the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (H.R. 2811).
  • Voted against FY2025 and FY2026 continuing appropriations bills.

“It is now clear that systemic flaws in our economy combined with unscrupulous greed on Wall Street very nearly toppled our entire economy.”

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports flat tax and MAHA tax breaks

Lewis supports replacing complex tax structures with a simple, low flat tax on wages and salaries to reward hard work and promote financial independence. He also proposes Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) tax breaks and regulatory reductions.

  • Proposes a simple, low flat tax on wages and salaries.
  • Advocates for Make America Healthy Again (MAHA)/ Bill of Rights tax breaks.
  • Calls for regulatory relief to limit government authority over individuals and localities.

“We need a simple, low flat tax on wages and salaries that rewards hard work, promotes financial independence, and reduces the burden on working families.”

“Regulations exist to control government to promote liberty, public safety, and our way of life and not the other way around.”

03

Water and energy resources

medium salience

Lewis advocates expanding regional water storage, desalination, and hydropower infrastructure, while Lofgren opposes Republican fossil-fuel energy development legislation.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Opposes fossil-fuel deregulation legislation

Lofgren serves on the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology and opposes Republican measures aimed at loosening environmental rules to boost domestic fossil fuel production.

  • Voted against the Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1).
  • Serves on the Science, Space, and Technology subcommittees on Energy and Environment.

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports water infrastructure and clean hydropower

Lewis prioritizes expanding water and energy infrastructure across the district, highlighting dam safety retrofits, desalination projects, clean hydropower, and wildfire management to safeguard agriculture and lower energy costs.

  • Proposes wildfire prevention, watershed protection, dam retrofits, and clean hydropower expansion in the Central Valley.
  • Advocates for desalination, groundwater restoration, and critical dam upgrades in Salinas Valley and Monterey County.
  • Focuses on securing affordable power and water while protecting family farms.

“By combining smart wildfire management, hydropower expansion, desalination, and dam safety, we can secure affordable water and power, protect family farms, and strengthen food security for California and the nation.”

04

Government accountability and election integrity

medium salience

Lofgren emphasizes executive oversight and high-profile roles in federal impeachments, while Lewis advocates strictly limiting federal power through constitutional adherence.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Supports presidential oversight and election reforms

Lofgren has taken leading roles in constitutional oversight, serving as an impeachment manager during Donald Trump's 2020 trial and supporting state redistricting reforms like Prop 50. She also publicly urged President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.

  • Served as a House impeachment manager in the 2020 trial of Donald Trump.
  • Supported California Proposition 50 regarding legislative congressional redistricting maps.
  • Urged President Joe Biden to step aside from the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination.
  • Voted for the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405).

“Simply put, your candidacy is on a trajectory to lose the White House and potentially impact crucial House and Senate races down ballot.”

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports constitutional limits and government transparency

Lewis anchors his political philosophy in the Bill of Rights and Federalist Papers, advocating for strict limits on government authority, transparency, and grassroots public involvement.

  • Advocates incorporating Bill of Rights principles directly into federal public policy.
  • Emphasizes complete government financial transparency and accountability.
  • Cites Federalist Papers as foundational texts for limiting government power.

“In everything the government does there should be transparency and accountability.”

“Every power a state or federal government has is derived from the will of the people.”

05

Education

low salience

Lewis prioritizes parental involvement and core academic skills in public schools, while Lofgren opposes federal restrictions on gender identity in school sports programs.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Opposes federal restrictions on transgender athletics

Lofgren cites her background in local education governance and opposes conservative federal mandates directing school sports policies.

  • Voted against the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28).
  • Highlights past service on the San Jose-Evergreen Community College District Board.

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports parent-teacher partnerships and core skills

Lewis emphasizes strengthening parent-teacher partnerships, improving core competencies in math and reading, expanding civics and financial education, and opposing state policies that restrict parental notification.

  • Focuses on preserving and elevating the parent-teacher partnership in schools.
  • Prioritizes core competencies in math, literacy, civics, and financial investment skills.
  • Opposes state policies encouraging schools to withhold student health information from parents.

“The Santa Clara County Board of Education must support the parent-teacher partnership.”

“Currently, the districts are failing on core competencies; literacy and Math. Therefore, we need to flush out these areas and focus on these areas.”

06

Healthcare

low salience

Lofgren views healthcare as a basic entitlement right requiring federal support, while Lewis addresses healthcare through MAHA tax incentives.

Democratic Zoe Lofgren

Supports universal access to affordable healthcare

Lofgren views healthcare access as a fundamental right and supports federal efforts to guarantee quality, affordable care for all Americans.

  • Advocates for universal access to affordable, quality healthcare.

“Access to affordable, quality health care is a right all Americans deserve. I have spent my entire career working to make that simple statement a reality.”

Republican Shane Lewis

Supports MAHA healthcare tax incentives

Lewis incorporates healthcare into his economic platform by proposing Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) tax breaks.

  • Proposes Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) tax incentives.

“We need Make America Healthy Again (MAHA)/ Bill of Rights tax breaks.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-18 House Election Winner

97.4% Democrats
2.4% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 97.4REPUBLICANS 2.4

Kalshi ↗

CA-18 House winner?

94.9% Zoe Lofgren
3.5% Shane Lewis
255075100AUG 2AUG 15AUG 26SEP 6SEP 16LOFGREN 94.9LEWIS 3.5

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.