Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Safe D

California’s 14th District race

AW

Democrat

Aisha Wahab

Portrait of Melissa Hernandez

Democrat

Melissa Hernandez

California's 14th Congressional District general election features two Democratic candidates, Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, who advanced from the top-two primary following the departure of incumbent Eric Swalwell. The contest hinges on intra-party policy contrasts and local leadership experience, with Wahab emphasizing progressive platform commitments on cost of living, housing, and social safety nets.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
99.5%
Republicans
0.2%
Kalshi ↗
Aisha Wahab
91.0%
Melissa Hernandez
8.0%
Kalshi ↗
Aisha Wahab
99.0%
Rakhi Israni Singh
4.0%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
2.0%
Wendy Huang
1.0%
Matt Ortega
1.0%
Carin Elam
1.0%
Melissa Hernandez
1.0%

All markets →

01

Cost of living

high salience

Democratic Aisha Wahab

Supports lowering everyday living costs

Wahab pledges to lower essential everyday costs for working families, seniors, and young people. Her economic platform targets corporate price-gouging, Wall Street landlords, and special interests to bring down prices across key sectors.

  • Lower costs for housing, healthcare, childcare, groceries, gas, and utilities.
  • Take on corporate price-gougers and Wall Street landlords.
  • Prioritize policies that put working people over powerful special interests.

“Make life affordable again. I will fight to lower the cost of housing, healthcare, childcare, groceries, gas, and utilities so working families, seniors, and young people can breathe again.”

— Ballotpedia

“Put working people over powerful interests. I will take on billionaires, corporate price-gougers, Wall Street landlords, and special interests so government works for the people who work hard, play by the rules, and deserve a fair shot.”

— Ballotpedia
Democratic Melissa Hernandez No documented position in our sources
02

Housing

high salience

Democratic Aisha Wahab

Supports expanding affordable housing and tenant protections

Wahab considers housing a core public policy priority, citing her personal experience being priced out during the Great Recession. She advocates expanding affordable housing, strengthening renter protections, and establishing pathways to homeownership.

  • Expand the supply of affordable housing units.
  • Strengthen protections for renters against high costs and displacement.
  • Create accessible pathways to homeownership for working families.

“That starts with housing — because no one can build a stable life without a safe, affordable home. I know what it feels like to lose housing and be priced out, & I will fight to expand affordable housing, protect renters, & create real pathways to homeownership.”

— Ballotpedia
Democratic Melissa Hernandez No documented position in our sources
03

Public safety

medium salience

Democratic Aisha Wahab

Supports victim-first public safety policies

Wahab supports public safety strategies centered on victim protections and holding violent offenders accountable. Her approach focuses on targeting repeat offenders and organized crime while keeping communities safe.

  • Implement a victim-first approach to public safety.
  • Hold violent, repeat, and organized crime offenders accountable.
  • Maintain community safety while defending civil rights.

“Protect our freedoms and keep communities safe. I will defend democracy, women’s rights, civil rights, and immigrant families while supporting victim-first public safety that holds violent, repeat, and organized offenders accountable.”

— Ballotpedia
Democratic Melissa Hernandez No documented position in our sources
04

Social services and safety net

medium salience

Democratic Aisha Wahab

Supports strengthening government safety nets

Wahab advocates robust social safety nets to assist vulnerable communities through economic and personal crisis. She focuses on supporting children in foster care, seniors, people with disabilities, and individuals experiencing homelessness.

  • Expand support systems for foster children, seniors, and disabled individuals.
  • Provide assistance and services for people experiencing homelessness and survivors of crisis.
  • Ensure government programs help individuals regain economic stability.

“I'm committed to social services and safety nets that help people through crisis — children in foster care, seniors, people with disabilities, working families, survivors, and those experiencing homelessness.”

— Ballotpedia

“Government should help people get back on their feet, not leave them behind; I'll build a country where hard work means dignity, stability, and a fair shot at the American Dream.”

— Ballotpedia
Democratic Melissa Hernandez No documented position in our sources
05

Civil rights and democracy

medium salience

Democratic Aisha Wahab

Supports defending civil and reproductive rights

Wahab emphasizes defending democratic norms, civil liberties, and equality. Her platform explicitly highlights protecting women's reproductive freedom and supporting immigrant families.

  • Defend democratic institutions and civil rights.
  • Protect women's rights and reproductive freedoms.
  • Support and protect immigrant families.

“I will defend democracy, women’s rights, civil rights, and immigrant families while supporting victim-first public safety that holds violent, repeat, and organized offenders accountable.”

— Ballotpedia
Democratic Melissa Hernandez No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 3

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

CA-14 House Election Winner

99.5% Democrats
0.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 99.5REPUBLICANS 0.2

Kalshi ↗

CA-14 House winner?

91.0% Aisha Wahab
8.0% Melissa Hernandez
255075100AUG 3AUG 27SEP 19OCT 12OCT 31WAHAB 91.0HERNANDEZ 8.0

Kalshi ↗

CA-14 special election winner

99.0% Aisha Wahab
4.0% Rakhi Israni Singh
2.0% Victor Aguilar Jr.

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 23SEP 14OCT 6OCT 27WAHAB 99.0SINGH 4.0JR. 2.0HERNANDEZ 1.0ORTEGA 1.0HUANG 1.0ELAM 1.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.