2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Tilt D
California’s 13th District race
In 2024, Gray unseated Republican incumbent John Duarte by only 187 votes out of more than 210,000 cast. The 2026 general election matchup hinges on inflation and cost of living, Central Valley water allocation and agricultural policy, public safety, and border security.
The pulse
updated Oct 31Cost of living and economy
high salienceGray emphasizes legislative fixes to lower health care, energy, and tariff costs, whereas Lincoln focuses on cutting federal spending and lowering taxes.
Democratic Adam Gray
Lowers costs through targeted legislation
Gray focuses on reducing household expenses for food, healthcare, utilities, and trade tariffs. He introduced legislation to reverse Medicaid cuts, lower energy costs through geothermal regulation, and limit unilateral presidential tariffs.
- Introduced the Protecting Health Care and Lowering Costs Act of 2025 to reverse Medicaid cuts and extend ACA tax credits
- Cosponsored the Stopping a Rogue President on Trade Act to restrict unilateral tariffs that raise consumer prices
- Introduced the Stop Raising Prices on Food Act to protect farmers and consumers from tariff-related price increases
- Introduced the bipartisan HEATS Act to lower energy costs by easing regulations around geothermal energy
“Central Valley families know the affordability crisis firsthand, and Adam is working nonstop to lower the costs of food, housing, health care, utilities, and other everyday expenses.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Supports tax cuts and spending reductions
Lincoln attributes elevated grocery, gas, and housing prices to federal spending policies. He advocates cutting government spending and lowering taxes, pointing to his record of balancing municipal budgets as Mayor of Stockton without raising taxes.
- Proposes cutting wasteful federal spending and lowering taxes for Central Valley families
- Highlights his mayoral record in Stockton balancing municipal budgets without raising taxes
- Promises a fiscal policy focused on reducing national debt to lower consumer costs
“D.C. politicians have done little to address the cost of groceries, gas, and housing for Valley families. Now more than ever, we need a leader who will put people before politics.”
Border security and immigration
high salienceGray combines border enforcement with legal pathways for farmworkers and Dreamers, whereas Lincoln focuses strictly on border enforcement and stopping illegal drug trafficking.
Democratic Adam Gray
Supports comprehensive reform and border enforcement
Gray supports comprehensive immigration reform that combines border infrastructure funding with legal pathways for farmworkers and Dreamers. While he voted for the Laken Riley Act requiring DHS detention for theft offenses, he opposed a DHS appropriations bill due to lack of ICE and CBP accountability reforms.
- Reintroduced the bipartisan DIGNITY Act to overhaul visa systems and invest in border security infrastructure
- Cosponsored the American Dream and Promise Act of 2025 to provide pathways to citizenship for Dreamers, TPS, and DED recipients
- Introduced the Farm Workforce Modernization Act of 2025 to allow undocumented farmworkers to earn legal status through agricultural employment
- Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring DHS detention of undocumented immigrants arrested for burglary or theft
“Adam knows that the Central Valley cannot function without our immigrant community, and he has supported multiple immigration reform measures to ensure both security and opportunity.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Favors strict border enforcement
Lincoln treats border security as a national security issue, blaming border policies for enabling human trafficking and illicit drug entry into Central Valley communities. He pledges to enforce federal immigration laws and restore border enforcement.
- Pledges to secure the border, enforce federal immigration laws, and restore law and order
- Frames border security as necessary to combat the influx of illicit fentanyl into local communities
“As a Marine Veteran, Kevin Lincoln believes that national security starts with border security.”
Public safety and crime
high salienceBoth candidates oppose soft-on-crime policies, but Gray emphasizes federal public safety grants and anti-fentanyl legislation while Lincoln highlights police budget and pay increases enacted as Mayor.
Democratic Adam Gray
Supports law enforcement and anti-crime laws
Gray highlights his backing of law enforcement agencies, anti-fentanyl legislation, and public safety infrastructure. He actively opposed California state propositions allowing zero bail, reduced sentencing, and early prisoner release.
- Introduced the bipartisan Combatting Fentanyl Poisonings Act to fund awareness campaigns and equipment for law enforcement
- Secured $1,031,000 for Modesto police communications and $850,000 for fire station rehabilitation
- Opposed zero bail (Prop 25), reduced sentencing (Prop 47), and early release (Prop 57)
“Adam strongly supports law enforcement at the local, state, and national levels, holding a deep respect for their bravery and delivering solutions to bolster their efforts to keep our communities safe.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Supports police funding and tougher sentencing
Lincoln campaigns on 'backing the blue,' highlighting police pay raises and budget increases delivered during his mayoral tenure in Stockton. In Congress, he pledges to oppose soft-on-crime policies and early prisoner release programs.
- Delivered an 18% pay raise and $42 million budget increase for Stockton police as Mayor
- Opposes early prisoner release and reduced sentences for repeat offenders
- Focuses on reducing violent crime through increased law enforcement resources
“While politicians in Washington and Sacramento defunded the police, Kevin Lincoln backed the blue, delivering an 18% pay raise and a $42 million budget increase to keep officers on the streets.”
Water access and agriculture
high salienceGray has authored multi-bill packages to authorize specific water storage projects and amend federal farm legislation, whereas Lincoln focuses broadly on defending water allocations and cutting farm regulations.
Democratic Adam Gray
Advocates expanding water storage and farm support
Gray prioritizes expanded water storage infrastructure and regulatory streamlining for Valley agriculture. He introduced bills to authorize 21 water storage projects and voted for the multiyear Farm Bill with provisions protecting specialty crop growers.
- Introduced the End the California Water Crisis Package and Central Valley Water Solution Act to authorize 21 water storage projects
- Supported the Build Now Act and SPEED Act to ease permitting obstacles under NEPA and the Endangered Species Act
- Secured amendments in the Farm, Food and National Security Act of 2026 protecting the Specialty Crop Block Grant Program and USMCA trade reporting
- Cosponsored the bipartisan PRECISE Act to incentivize private financing for precision agriculture technology
“The number one issue that Adam hears about in the district is access to water.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Supports regulatory reduction for Valley farms
Lincoln pledges to defend local agriculture by protecting Central Valley water supplies and reducing regulatory burdens on farmers and ranchers.
- Pledges to protect Valley water allocations for agricultural production
- Advocates cutting federal regulatory burdens affecting farmers and ranchers
“We must protect our local agriculture economy by protecting Valley water, and by cutting endless and burdensome regulations.”
Technology and digital innovation
medium salienceGray voted for stablecoin regulatory frameworks in Congress, while Lincoln presents an explicit tech platform favoring deregulation for AI, cryptocurrency leadership, and self-custody rights.
Democratic Adam Gray
Supports cryptocurrency regulatory framework
Gray voted in favor of the GENIUS Act (S.1582) to establish a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins and digital assets.
- Voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S.1582) creating a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Promotes AI innovation and crypto deregulation
Lincoln advocates for American leadership in artificial intelligence and digital assets. He endorses the President's AI Action Plan, supports the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act, opposes IRS broker rules on software developers, and defends self-custody rights.
- Supports the President's AI Action Plan to remove regulatory burdens and build domestic AI infrastructure
- Supports the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act to establish clear regulatory pathways for digital assets
- Opposes IRS broker rules that treat software developers like financial intermediaries
- Defends the right of Americans to self-custody digital assets
“Kevin believes digital assets and blockchain technology represent the next frontier of American economic leadership, and Congress must create clear pathways for this industry to grow here rather than drive it offshore.”
Veterans affairs
medium salienceGray points to a list of sponsored and cosponsored federal veteran bills, while Lincoln highlights his military background as a Marine veteran.
Democratic Adam Gray
Supports expanding veteran healthcare and benefits
Gray has introduced and cosponsored legislative measures to relieve veterans of erroneous VA medical copay debts, establish peer support mental health programs, and allow concurrent receipt of military retired pay and disability compensation.
- Introduced the STRIVE Act of 2025 to relieve veterans of $272 million in erroneous VA copay debt
- Cosponsored the PFC Joseph P. Dwyer Peer Support Program Act for veteran mental health
- Cosponsored the Major Richard Star Act and Retired Pay Restoration Act for combat-injured retirees
“Adam has worked across the aisle to support common sense legislation to support our veterans: rolling back red tape, expanding access to high-quality, affordable care, working to ensure they are receiving the benefits they rightfully earned in service to our country.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Advocates improving veteran healthcare and benefits
Lincoln, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran who served on Marine One, pledges to improve healthcare access and benefit delivery for military veterans and their families.
- Emphasizes his personal experience as a U.S. Marine Corps veteran
- Pledges direct legislative action to improve healthcare services and benefits for military families
“As a Marine Corps veteran, I am fully committed to supporting and improving healthcare and benefits for our nation's veterans.”
Education
medium salienceGray focuses on funding public schools, special education, and agricultural vocational facilities, whereas Lincoln advocates for parental rights, charter schools, and removing political ideology from classrooms.
Democratic Adam Gray
Supports funding public education and workforce training
Gray supports robust funding for public schools, special education, school mental health facilities, and higher education programs focused on job training and ag-tech.
- Secured $366,000 for Gustine Unified School District school-based mental health facilities
- Cosponsored the IDEA Full Funding Act to support special education for children with disabilities
- Supported funding for the AgTEC Innovation Center at Merced College and transitional kindergarten expansion
“From elementary and high school through college, Adam believes that learning, training, and job preparation provided by good schools will propel students into the world ready to tackle the issues we face.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Supports parental rights and charter schools
Lincoln advocates for expanding parental influence in public education, supporting charter schools, and eliminating political ideology from classroom instruction.
- Supports expanding parental voice in education decision-making
- Supports charter school expansion and educational innovation
- Opposes teaching political ideology in public classrooms
“Parents should have a greater voice in their child's education, not special interests or D.C. bureaucrats thousands of miles away.”
Foreign policy and national defense
low salienceGray highlights his congressional vote restricting unauthorized executive military actions, while Lincoln frames national defense around technological competition with China and border security.
Democratic Adam Gray
Opposes unauthorized military interventions
Gray voted for a War Powers Resolution to direct the President to halt unauthorized military actions in Iran, opposing politically motivated foreign wars and emphasizing congressional authority over war declarations.
- Voted for a War Powers Resolution to direct the President to end military activity in Iran unless authorized by Congress
- Opposes endless, politically motivated foreign wars that deploy service members without clear objectives
“Adam’s focus in international affairs is steadfastly on protecting American interests – both security and economic – at home and abroad, and on the safety of our brave service members and their families.”
Republican Kevin Lincoln II
Emphasizes national security and global competitiveness
Lincoln ties national security to domestic border enforcement and strategic technological dominance over foreign rivals such as China.
- Connects national security directly to securing the southern border
- Advocates prioritizing domestic AI innovation and infrastructure to maintain leadership over China
“The United States is locked in a defining competition with China and other rivals to dominate artificial intelligence, and America must win.”
Healthcare
medium salienceDemocratic Adam Gray
Supports expanding ACA coverage and rural care
Gray focuses on lowering healthcare costs and addressing rural physician shortages. He introduced bills to reverse Medicaid cuts, permanently extend ACA premium tax credits, expand telehealth access, and build medical education facilities in underserved areas.
- Introduced the Protecting Health Care and Lowering Costs Act of 2025 to reverse Medicaid cuts and extend ACA tax credits
- Introduced the Telehealth Network and Telehealth Resource Centers Grant Program Reauthorization Act
- Introduced the bipartisan Midwives for MOMS Act to expand rural maternity care
- Introduced the Expanding Medical Education Act to support medical school construction in underserved areas like UC Merced and UCSF Fresno
“Adam is working to lower costs and increase coverage when it comes to health care access.”
Culture and social policy
medium salienceRepublican Kevin Lincoln II
Opposes woke DEI mandates and policies
Lincoln opposes diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) mandates, gender identity policies regarding bathroom access, and gender transition procedures for minors.
- Opposes federal DEI mandates in government and public institutions
- Opposes policies permitting biological men in women's bathrooms
- Opposes gender transition surgeries for children
“In Congress, Kevin Lincoln will fight the radical liberal agenda and stop it from reaching the Central Valley.”
Prediction markets 2
updated Oct 31Polymarket ↗
CA-13 House Election Winner
Kalshi ↗
CA-13 House winner?
Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.