Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Tilt D

California — 13th District

Portrait of Kevin Lincoln II

Republican

Kevin Lincoln II

The 2026 general election for California's 13th Congressional District features Democratic incumbent Adam Gray against Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln II, a U.S. Marine Corps veteran and former mayor of Stockton. The race takes place following mid-decade redistricting under California Proposition 50, which added Stockton to the district and shifted its partisan baseline to D+6. Despite the Democratic voter edge, the election hinges on cost-of-living concerns, water rights, public safety, and border security in a district where Latino voters have recently trended right. Major forecasters rate the contest as Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic, making it a critical House battleground.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
90.0%
Republicans
9.5%
Kalshi ↗
Adam Gray
94.4%
Kevin Lincoln
5.2%

All markets →

01

Water access and infrastructure

high salience

Gray has sponsored specific federal legislation and secured targeted infrastructure appropriations, whereas Lincoln focuses on deregulation and protecting existing local water supplies from federal intervention.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports expanding water storage and easing permitting

Gray considers water access the top issue in the district and has authored multiple bills to expand water storage capacity. He advocates easing regulatory barriers under NEPA and ESA while securing federal funding for municipal water infrastructure.

  • Introduced the End the California Water Crisis Package and Central Valley Water Solution Act to authorize 21 water storage projects
  • Introduced the WATER Act and Valley Water Protection Act to modify environmental review timelines
  • Secured $1,000,000 for Le Grand Athlone and Chowchilla Water Districts and $1,092,000 for Dos Palos Wastewater Facility

“The number one issue that Adam hears about in the district is access to water.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports protecting local water for agriculture

Lincoln promises to protect local Valley water rights to support agriculture against federal regulations and bureaucracy. He argues federal policies consistently put special interests ahead of Central Valley farmers.

  • Pledges to protect Valley water to support the local agricultural economy
  • Advocates cutting federal regulations that hinder water utilization

“We must protect our local agriculture economy by protecting Valley water, and by cutting endless and burdensome regulations.”

02

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Gray seeks to lower consumer costs through targeted legislative fixes and tariff limits, while Lincoln advocates broad spending cuts and tax reductions.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports lowering costs and reforming trade policy

Gray focuses on lowering prices for food, housing, healthcare, and energy through targeted bipartisan legislation. He opposes unilateral presidential tariffs and introduced bills to reduce geothermal regulation and reverse Medicaid cuts.

  • Introduced the Protecting Health Care and Lowering Costs Act of 2025 to reverse Medicaid cuts and extend ACA tax credits
  • Cosponsored the Stopping a Rogue President on Trade Act and introduced the Stop Raising Prices on Food Act to limit tariffs
  • Introduced the HEATS Act to lower energy costs through geothermal regulatory relief
  • Voted Nay on the reconciliation bill (H.R.1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act)

“Central Valley families know the affordability crisis firsthand, and Adam is working nonstop to lower the costs of food, housing, health care, utilities, and other everyday expenses.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports cutting spending and reducing taxes

Lincoln argues that federal policies and inflation have made daily necessities unaffordable for Valley families. He pledges to lower taxes and curb wasteful government spending, emphasizing his mayoral record of balancing budgets.

  • Promises to cut wasteful government spending and lower federal taxes
  • Highlights balancing municipal budgets without raising taxes as Mayor of Stockton
  • Criticizes federal economic and spending policies for driving up consumer costs

“In Congress, he will work to cut wasteful government spending, lower taxes, and put more money back in the pockets of hardworking Central Valley families.”

03

Border security and immigration

high salience

Gray supports combining border security with earned legal pathways for farmworkers and Dreamers, whereas Lincoln focuses strictly on border enforcement and stopping illegal crossings.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports border security with legal pathways

Gray advocates for comprehensive immigration reform that balances border enforcement with legal protections for farmworkers and Dreamers. He supported key reform bills while demanding accountability from federal border agencies.

  • Reintroduced the bipartisan DIGNITY Act for comprehensive immigration reform and border investment
  • Cosponsored the American Dream and Promise Act of 2025 and the Farm Workforce Modernization Act of 2025
  • Voted Yea on the Laken Riley Act (S.5) requiring detention of noncitizens arrested for theft offenses
  • Voted against DHS Appropriations bill citing lack of ICE and CBP accountability reforms

“Adam knows that the Central Valley cannot function without our immigrant community, and he has supported multiple immigration reform measures to ensure both security and opportunity.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports strict border enforcement and security

Lincoln treats border security as a top national security concern, linking illegal immigration to illicit drug trafficking and fentanyl in local communities. He promises to enforce existing immigration laws and restore law and order.

  • Pledges to secure the southern border and strictly enforce federal immigration laws
  • Focuses on stopping fentanyl trafficking and criminal activity tied to border crossings
  • Criticizes federal border policies for creating community safety risks

“As a Marine Veteran, Kevin Lincoln believes that national security starts with border security.”

04

Public safety and crime

high salience

Both candidates strongly back law enforcement and oppose soft-on-crime policies, with Gray emphasizing federal grants and legislative opposition to ballot measures, while Lincoln highlights his mayoral budget increases for police.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports law enforcement and anti-drug measures

Gray supports law enforcement through federal funding for equipment and fentanyl awareness campaigns. His record includes opposing progressive state criminal justice ballot measures like zero bail and reduced sentencing.

  • Introduced the bipartisan Combatting Fentanyl Poisonings Act
  • Secured $1,031,000 for Modesto Police Department radio systems and $850,000 for Fire Station #1
  • Opposed Proposition 25 (zero bail), Proposition 47 (reduced sentencing), and Proposition 57 (early release)
  • Endorsed by the Modesto Police Officers' Association

“Adam strongly supports law enforcement at the local, state, and national levels, holding a deep respect for their bravery and delivering solutions to bolster their efforts to keep our communities safe.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports police funding and tougher sentencing

Lincoln emphasizes his record as Stockton Mayor in raising police pay and funding. In Congress, he promises to oppose soft-on-crime policies such as reduced sentences and early release.

  • Increased Stockton's police budget by $42 million and delivered an 18% pay raise for officers as Mayor
  • Opposes early prisoner release and reduced sentences for repeat offenders
  • Endorsed by former President Donald Trump and local Republican groups

“While politicians in Washington and Sacramento defunded the police, Kevin Lincoln backed the blue, delivering an 18% pay raise and a $42 million budget increase to keep officers on the streets.”

05

Agriculture

medium salience

Gray relies on his House Agriculture Committee record and specific bill amendments, while Lincoln focuses on broad regulatory relief and curbing federal bureaucracy.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports specialty crops and farm legislation

Gray serves on the House Agriculture Committee and voted for the Farm Bill. He secured amendments protecting specialty crop grants, evaluating USMCA impacts, and expanding local fresh produce access.

  • One of 14 House Democrats to support the Farm Bill
  • Secured unanimous amendment prohibiting USDA cost-sharing requirements on Specialty Crop Block Grants
  • Cosponsored PRECISE Act for precision agriculture and Livestock Indemnity Program Improvement Act of 2025
  • Serves on subcommittees for Commodity Markets and Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry

“Representing one of the world’s largest agricultural regions, Adam has worked to deliver results for farmers, ranchers, and dairymen across the board...”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports regulatory relief for growers

Lincoln promises to support Valley farms and ranches by cutting federal regulatory burdens and protecting agricultural water supplies.

  • Pledges to cut burdensome regulations affecting local agriculture
  • Advocates protecting Valley water for farm and ranch production
  • Criticizes federal bureaucracy for prioritizing special interests over local growers

“Nowhere is Washington’s neglect of our Valley clearer than when it consistently puts special interests and bureaucracy ahead of supporting our local farmers and ranchers.”

06

Education

medium salience

Gray focuses on funding public schools, special education, and local medical training, while Lincoln emphasizes parental rights, charter schools, and removing political ideology from classrooms.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports public education and medical training

Gray, a UC Merced instructor, supports expanding public education programs, funding special education, and expanding medical school development in the Central Valley.

  • Introduced Expanding Medical Education Act to build medical schools in underserved areas like UC Merced
  • Cosponsored the bipartisan IDEA Full Funding Act for students with disabilities
  • Secured $366,000 for Gustine Unified School District mental health facility
  • Supported state funding for universal transitional kindergarten and VOLT Institute job training

“As a proud graduate of Merced College who now teaches at UC Merced, Adam knows that access to quality education opens opportunities for the next generation.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports parental rights and charter schools

Lincoln advocates for expanding parental influence in public schools, supporting charter school options, and removing political ideology from classroom curricula.

  • Supports increasing parental authority over children's education
  • Advocates for charter schools and educational innovation
  • Opposes political ideology in public school classrooms

“Parents should have a greater voice in their child’s education, not special interests or D.C. bureaucrats thousands of miles away.”

07

Veterans

medium salience

Gray highlights legislative achievements such as relieving VA copay debt, whereas Lincoln emphasizes his personal experience as a Marine Corps veteran.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports expanding veteran benefits and relief

Gray introduced legislation to eliminate VA copay debt caused by agency processing delays and cosponsored several bipartisan veteran benefit bills.

  • Introduced the STRIVE Act of 2025, leading the VA to relieve $272 million in veteran copay debt
  • Cosponsored the Major Richard Star Act and Retired Pay Restoration Act for military retirees
  • Cosponsored the PFC Joseph P. Dwyer Peer Support Program Act and Service Dogs Assisting Veterans Act

“Adam has worked across the aisle to support common sense legislation to support our veterans: rolling back red tape, expanding access to high-quality, affordable care...”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports improving veteran healthcare and services

As a U.S. Marine Corps veteran, Lincoln pledges to improve healthcare and benefits for veterans through concrete legislative action.

  • Emphasizes military service background in the U.S. Marine Corps
  • Pledges to improve VA healthcare delivery and benefits for military families
  • Signed the U.S. Term Limits Pledge

“As a Marine Corps veteran, I am fully committed to supporting and improving healthcare and benefits for our nation’s veterans.”

08

Artificial intelligence and emerging technology

low salience

Gray voted for stablecoin regulatory legislation, while Lincoln outlines an extensive platform favoring domestic AI infrastructure buildout, regulatory relief, and crypto self-custody rights.

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports stablecoin regulatory frameworks

Gray supported establishing a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins by voting for the GENIUS Act.

  • Voted Yea on the GENIUS Act (S.1582) to establish regulatory guidelines for payment stablecoins

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Supports domestic AI and crypto regulation

Lincoln supports the President's AI Action Plan to promote domestic innovation against foreign rivals like China. He also advocates for clear cryptocurrency regulation, supporting the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act while protecting self-custody rights.

  • Supports the President's AI Action Plan to build domestic infrastructure and remove regulatory burdens
  • Supports the CLARITY Act and GENIUS Act for digital assets
  • Opposes IRS broker rules treating software developers as financial intermediaries
  • Defends individual self-custody rights for digital assets

“The future of AI must be built in America, by Americans, and put to work growing our economy and keeping us ahead of the rest of the world.”

09

Healthcare

medium salience

Democratic Adam Gray

Supports ACA extension and expanded access

Gray advocates for reversing federal Medicaid cuts, extending ACA premium tax credits, and increasing healthcare access in rural areas. He authored legislation to address regional doctor shortages and expand telehealth.

  • Introduced Protecting Health Care and Lowering Costs Act of 2025 to reverse Medicaid cuts and extend ACA tax credits
  • Helped pass 3-year ACA tax credit extension in the Breaking the Gridlock Act
  • Introduced Telehealth Network Reauthorization Act and Midwives for MOMS Act
  • Introduced Expanding Medical Education Act to fund medical schools in underserved areas

“Adam is working to lower costs and increase coverage when it comes to health care access.”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II No documented position in our sources
10

Foreign policy and national defense

low salience

Democratic Adam Gray

Opposes unauthorized military actions and forever wars

Gray voted for a War Powers Resolution regarding military actions in Iran, asserting that ending foreign conflicts protects service members and reduces economic burdens at home.

  • Voted for War Powers Resolution to direct the President to end unauthorized military activity in Iran
  • Cosponsored the Stopping a Rogue President on Trade Act to prevent unilateral tariffs
  • Opposes long-term foreign military interventions without clear congressional authorization

“Adam’s focus in international affairs is steadfastly on protecting American interests – both security and economic – at home and abroad...”

Republican Kevin Lincoln II No documented position in our sources
11

Diversity, equity, and social policies

low salience
Democratic Adam Gray No documented position in our sources

Republican Kevin Lincoln II

Opposes woke DEI and gender policies

Lincoln opposes DEI mandates, gender transition surgeries for minors, and policies allowing transgender women in women's restrooms, promising to block radical liberal agendas in Congress.

  • Opposes federal DEI mandates in government and public institutions
  • Opposes policies permitting transgender individuals into women's restrooms
  • Opposes gender transition procedures for minors

“In Congress, Kevin Lincoln will fight the radical liberal agenda and stop it from reaching the Central Valley.”

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-13 House Election Winner

90.0% Democrats
9.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 90.0REPUBLICANS 9.5

Kalshi ↗

CA-13 House winner?

94.4% Adam Gray
5.2% Kevin Lincoln
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16GRAY 94.4LINCOLN 5.2

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