Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Lean D

California’s 6th District race

KK

No party preference

Kevin Kiley

Incumbent

The 2026 election for California's 6th Congressional District features Democrat Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator, facing off against incumbent Representative Kevin Kiley in a district re-drawn under California Proposition 50. Pan's campaign focuses heavily on his background in public health, defending healthcare access, and combating anti-science policies. The matchup hinges on whether Pan can mobilize the district's Democratic base around public health, gun safety, and economic protection against federal policy shifts.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
96.0%
Republicans
1.9%
Kalshi ↗
Richard Pan
94.4%
Kevin Kiley
5.9%
Republicans
0.3%

All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports expanding ACA and lower prescription costs

Pan centers his platform on protecting public healthcare access and drawing on his career as a physician and former state senator. He pledges to defend the Affordable Care Act and Medicare from federal cuts while preventing insurance companies from denying doctor-prescribed care. In state government, he authored laws to reduce insulin prices and broaden coverage across California.

  • Authored state legislation that capped insulin costs and extended healthcare coverage to millions of Californians
  • Pledges to defend the Affordable Care Act and Medicare against federal rollbacks
  • Proposes federal action to prohibit insurance companies from denying doctor-prescribed treatments and lower prescription drug prices

“Dr. Pan has dedicated his career to ensuring everyone has access to quality affordable healthcare.”

“In Congress, Dr. Pan will stop Trump from gutting the Affordable Care Act, protect Medicare, stop insurance companies from denying critical care prescribed by doctors, and fight to lower prescription drug costs.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
02

Public health and science policy

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Defends science-based public health policies

Pan positions himself as a defender of scientific integrity and public health regulations against political interference. He highlights his record of passing state child safety and immunization laws in California despite opposition from vaccine skeptics. In Congress, he promises to oppose RFK Jr. and Donald Trump's public health proposals while ensuring federal policies are grounded in scientific evidence.

  • Led California legislation ensuring children are protected from preventable diseases in schools
  • Pledges to oppose federal rollbacks of public health, vaccination, and environmental protection standards
  • Vows to protect civil servants and military personnel from partisan interference in scientific policy

“Dr. Pan will fight for facts and science, not personal politics and vendettas, to guide federal policy on vaccination, public health, and the environment.”

“Now, Dr. Pan will take on Trump and RFK Jr. in Washington, roll back their reckless, harmful policies, follow science, call out disinformation, and save kids from preventable diseases like measles and polio.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
03

Cost of living and economy

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports lowering everyday consumer costs

Pan advocates for federal interventions to reduce living expenses for working families, focusing on housing, groceries, and education. He criticizes federal tariff policies for driving up consumer prices in California. His platform includes student loan debt relief and expanding assistance for essential household goods.

  • Passed state measures supporting housing affordability and grocery access for low-income families
  • Opposes federal tariff policies that increase prices on consumer goods in California
  • Supports student loan debt relief and programs making basic necessities more affordable

“In Washington, he will prioritize making necessities more affordable, loan relief for educational debt and fight to roll back Trump's tariff taxes that are raising prices on Californians.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
04

Gun safety

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports federal gun control measures

As a pediatrician, Pan treats gun violence as a critical public health crisis affecting children. He has earned the Moms Demand Action Gun Sense Candidate distinction and advocates for strict federal gun regulations. His platform includes implementing universal background checks, banning assault weapons, and funding gun violence research.

  • Recognized as a Moms Demand Action Gun Sense Candidate
  • Supports federal legislation for universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons
  • Advocates for safe firearm storage regulations, federal gun violence research, and community violence prevention programs

“Dr. Pan understands that gun violence is the leading cause of death for children in America.”

“In Congress he’ll work to institute universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
05

Reproductive rights

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports federal abortion rights protections

Pan maintains a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California and has consistently advocated for reproductive healthcare coverage. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, he worked to protect state abortion access and contraception coverage. In Congress, he commits to voting to codify Roe v. Wade into federal law.

  • Earned a 100% rating from Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California
  • Protected state-level abortion access and contraception coverage after Roe v. Wade was overturned
  • Pledges to support federal legislation codifying Roe v. Wade

“Rated 100% by Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Dr Pan protected abortion rights after Roe v. Wade was overturned and ensured coverage for abortion access and contraception.”

“In Congress he will work to codify Roe.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
06

Immigration

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports path to legal citizenship

Pan, the son of Taiwanese immigrants, views immigration as essential to American economic growth and technological innovation. He advocates for a legal pathway to citizenship and expanded legal assistance for immigrants. He also calls for replacing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) with an agency focused on fair enforcement and constitutional rights.

  • Supported state efforts assisting immigrants with legal services to protect constitutional rights
  • Supports establishing a legal pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants
  • Calls for replacing ICE with a federal enforcement agency that respects civil rights and prevents family separation

“Dr. Pan helped immigrants obtain legal assistance to protect their rights and will fight for a path to citizenship.”

“Dr. Pan believes Trump's ICE must be overhauled and replaced with an agency that doesn't kill Americans and separate families, enforces the law fairly, and protects people's constitutional rights.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
07

Public safety and emergency services

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports funding first responders and prevention

Pan emphasizes community safety through investments in emergency responders and preventative mental health infrastructure. As a state legislator, he secured funding for local firefighters and emergency personnel. In Congress, he proposes expanding federal grants for mental health, first responders, and local crime prevention programs.

  • Secured millions in state funding for emergency responders and local firefighters
  • Supports federal funding for first responder training, equipment, and resources
  • Backs federal grants for mental health treatment and community-based violence prevention

“Dr. Pan was proud to secure millions in new funding for local firefighters and emergency responders, and in Congress he’ll invest in first responders, mental health grants, and community-based violence prevention programs that stop crime before people are hurt.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
08

Small business

low salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports local business capital and training

Citing his background as a small business owner, Pan focuses on policies that aid local entrepreneurs and job growth. He advocates for reducing regulatory red tape, increasing access to affordable business capital, and promoting apprenticeship programs. He also opposes market domination by large corporate monopolies.

  • Proposes reducing federal administrative red tape and expanding access to affordable small business loans
  • Supports federally funded workforce training and apprenticeship partnerships
  • Opposes corporate monopolies in order to protect local small business competitiveness

“In Congress, Dr. Pan will work to reduce unnecessary red tape, expand access to affordable capital, and push back on policies that increase uncertainty and drive up costs for small businesses.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

CA-06 House Election Winner

96.0% Democrats
1.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 96.0REPUBLICANS 1.9

Kalshi ↗

CA-06 House winner?

94.4% Richard Pan
5.9% Kevin Kiley
0.3% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 25SEP 17OCT 10OCT 31PAN 94.4KILEY 5.9REPUBLICANS 0.3

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.