Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · California Lean D

California — 6th District

KK

No party preference

Kevin Kiley

Incumbent

The 2026 election for California's 6th Congressional District features Democratic nominee Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator, competing against incumbent Kevin Kiley, who is running with no party preference. The district boundaries were adjusted prior to the 2026 cycle following California voters' approval of Proposition 50 in November 2025. Major race rating outlets view the district as leaning to solid Democratic, with Cook Political Report rating it Solid Democratic, Decision Desk rating it Safe Democratic, Sabato's Crystal Ball rating it Likely Democratic, and Inside Elections rating it Lean Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
94.9%
Republicans
3.4%
Kalshi ↗
Richard Pan
93.6%
Kevin Kiley
6.5%
Republicans
0.5%

All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports expanding healthcare and protecting ACA

Dr. Pan advocates for universal access to quality affordable healthcare. He opposes federal efforts to gut the Affordable Care Act, supports protecting Medicare, preventing insurance denials for doctor-prescribed care, and reducing prescription drug costs.

  • Authored state legislation as a California State Senator that cut insulin costs and expanded healthcare coverage to millions of state residents.
  • Pledges to protect the Affordable Care Act and Medicare from federal funding cuts.
  • Supports capping prescription drug costs and blocking insurance companies from denying doctor-prescribed care.

“In Congress, Dr. Pan will stop Trump from gutting the Affordable Care Act, protect Medicare, stop insurance companies from denying critical care prescribed by doctors, and fight to lower prescription drug costs.”

“In the California State Senate, he authored and led legislation that secured health care for millions of Californians”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
02

Public health and science

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Defends science-based public health policies

Pan positions his campaign around defending public health agencies and scientific consensus against political interference. He emphasizes his legislative record in California opposing vaccine misinformation and supporting disease prevention in schools.

  • Pledges to hold federal leadership accountable for attacks on healthcare and public health science.
  • Advocates for grounding federal vaccine and environmental policies in peer-reviewed science rather than political agendas.
  • Highlights past legislative battles in California against RFK Jr. and anti-vaccine groups to enforce school vaccination standards.

“Dr. Pan will fight for facts and science, not personal politics and vendettas, to guide federal policy on vaccination, public health, and the environment.”

“In the California State Senate, he authored and led legislation that secured health care for millions of Californians, championed landmark child safety laws, and defeated RFK Jr. and MAGA to ensure that children are safe from preventable diseases at school.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
03

Cost of living

high salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports lowering costs for working families

Pan focuses on lowering everyday costs for families by targeting housing affordability, grocery prices, and corporate price gouging. He opposes broad federal tariffs, arguing they raise prices on consumers.

  • Passed state-level legislation to assist lower-income families with housing and food access.
  • Pledges to roll back broad tariffs that increase consumer prices in California.
  • Supports federal student loan debt relief.

“In Washington, he will prioritize making necessities more affordable, loan relief for educational debt and fight to roll back Trump's tariff taxes that are raising prices on Californians.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
04

Gun control

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports stricter gun control measures

Pan treats gun violence as a major public health crisis, drawing on his experience as a pediatrician. He advocates for strict federal firearm regulation, including bans on military-style firearms and universal background checks.

  • Earned the Moms Demand Action Gun Sense Candidate distinction.
  • Supports federal universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons.
  • Advocates for federal grants funding community violence prevention programs, secure firearm storage, and gun violence research.

“In Congress he’ll work to institute universal background checks and a ban on assault weapons.”

“Dr. Pan is committed to keeping our communities safe and has taken on the NRA by fighting for common-sense gun safety laws.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
05

Abortion

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports codifying federal abortion rights

Pan supports strong federal protections for reproductive rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade. His state record includes voting to expand insurance coverage for abortion care and contraception.

  • Earned a 100% legislative scorecard rating from Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California.
  • Supported state measures to safeguard access to abortion care and contraception.
  • Pledges to vote to codify the protections of Roe v. Wade into federal statute.

“Rated 100% by Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, Dr Pan protected abortion rights after Roe v. Wade was overturned and ensured coverage for abortion access and contraception. In Congress he will work to codify Roe.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
06

Immigration

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports path to citizenship and ICE reform

Pan advocates for immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship and legal protections for immigrants. He calls for overhauling ICE, arguing the agency must respect constitutional rights and avoid family separations.

  • Supports creating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.
  • Supported state programs providing legal assistance to immigrants.
  • Calls for replacing ICE with a federal enforcement agency focused on fair enforcement and constitutional protections.

“Dr. Pan believes Trump's ICE must be overhauled and replaced with an agency that doesn't kill Americans and separate families, enforces the law fairly, and protects people's constitutional rights.”

“Dr. Pan helped immigrants obtain legal assistance to protect their rights and will fight for a path to citizenship.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
07

Small business

medium salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Supports small business growth and deregulation

Drawing on his experience as a small business owner, Pan supports federal policies to assist local employers. He focuses on cutting red tape, improving access to capital, and funding local workforce training programs.

  • Advocates for streamlining federal regulations to reduce burden on local small businesses.
  • Supports expanded access to capital for small business owners.
  • Backs federal support for apprenticeship and job training programs.

“In Congress, Dr. Pan will work to reduce unnecessary red tape, expand access to affordable capital, and push back on policies that increase uncertainty and drive up costs for small businesses.”

“Dr. Pan will stand with small businesses, not corporate monopolies, and fight to keep our local economy strong.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources
08

Rule of law and governance

low salience

Democratic Richard Pan

Defends rule of law and civil service integrity

Pan emphasizes protecting democratic institutions, maintaining equal justice under law, and protecting career nonpartisan civil servants and military personnel from partisan executive overreach.

  • Pledges to defend equal justice and institutional checks and balances.
  • Supports protecting career civil servants and military personnel from political pressure.

“He will support servicemembers and civil servants who work for the American people over serving the partisan agendas of the President. Dr. Pan will defend the rule of law and equal justice for all Americans.”

No party preference Kevin Kiley No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

CA-06 House Election Winner

94.9% Democrats
3.4% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 94.9REPUBLICANS 3.4

Kalshi ↗

CA-06 House winner?

93.6% Richard Pan
6.5% Kevin Kiley
0.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 14AUG 26SEP 7SEP 16PAN 93.6KILEY 6.5REPUBLICANS 0.5

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.