Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Arizona Safe D

Arizona’s 3rd District race

Portrait of Yassamin Ansari

Democrat

Yassamin Ansari

No Republican nominee

Also on the ballot David Redkey (Green) Alan Aversa (No Labels Party)

The 2026 general election for Arizona's 3rd Congressional District features freshman Democratic incumbent Yassamin Ansari facing Republican write-in candidate Jacob Parkman, alongside minor-party contenders. The race hinges on sharp policy contrasts between Ansari's progressive federal agenda—focused on climate action, worker rights, housing supply, and abortion access—and Parkman's conservative platform emphasizing school choice, constitutional limits on federal power, and community-based solutions.

The pulse

updated Oct 31
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
98.8%
Republicans
1.2%
Kalshi ↗
Yassamin Ansari
96.7%
Republicans
2.9%

All markets →

01

Economy and Housing Affordability

high salience

Ansari advocates direct federal investment and comprehensive zoning reforms to solve housing shortages, while Parkman emphasizes deregulation, individual ownership, and workforce development.

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports pro-housing investments and lower costs

Ansari prioritizes lowering living costs for working families by building more housing and cracking down on price gouging. She advocates for federal housing funding, zoning reform, and tax relief for middle- and lower-income households.

  • Allocated over $120 million in American Rescue Plan Act funds to affordable housing, rental assistance, and homelessness mitigation in Phoenix.
  • Supports federal zoning reform, expansion of Housing Choice Vouchers, and incentives for social housing projects.
  • Advocates expanding the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit while raising taxes on corporations and high earners.

“Young Arizonans can't afford housing, gas or health care”

“Building more housing so we have the supply we need will be a top priority for Yassamin in Congress.”

No Republican nominee
02

Education

high salience

Ansari focuses on funding traditional public education and student debt cancellation, whereas Parkman favors educational choice options and vocational technical training.

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports public education and debt forgiveness

Ansari supports increased federal funding for public schools and teachers, student loan debt forgiveness, and expanding rural broadband. On the Phoenix City Council, she created the Phoenix Promise scholarship to cover community college tuition for low-income students.

  • Created the Phoenix Promise program supporting 800 low-income students pursuing community college degrees.
  • Advocates federal student loan forgiveness to give younger generations financial flexibility.
  • Supports increased federal funding for public school teachers and expanding rural broadband access.

“Access to education is a vital tool for Americans to empower themselves and their communities, but Arizonans face high barriers to entry with the quality and costs of education.”

No Republican nominee
03

Climate Change and Energy

high salience

Ansari promotes aggressive federal clean energy mandates and net-zero targets by 2050, while Parkman emphasizes market-driven technological innovation without broad federal mandates.

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports transition to renewable energy

A former UN climate advisor, Ansari advocates accelerating the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. She urges FEMA to classify extreme heat as a natural disaster and supports green public transit infrastructure.

  • Passed Phoenix's Climate Action Plan, Transportation Electrification Action Plan, and a plan to electrify the city bus fleet by 2040.
  • Supports reaching 100% net zero by 2050 and investing in clean energy grids and high-speed rail.
  • Calls on FEMA to declare extreme heat a natural disaster to unlock federal relief resources.

“The climate crisis is the defining issue of our time.”

“If we want to reduce the worst impacts of climate change and save lives, we need to reach 100% net zero by 2050 and establish programs that mitigate extreme heat.”

No Republican nominee
04

Government Role, Governance, and Democracy

medium salience

Ansari advocates major federal voting legislation and judicial structural reform, whereas Parkman favors strict constitutional bounds on federal authority in favor of local, private, and faith-based responsibility.

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports voting rights and ethics reforms

Ansari supports expanding federal voting protections, ending the Senate filibuster, expanding the Supreme Court, and banning stock trading for members of Congress. In the 119th Congress, she voted Nay on the SAVE Act and NORRA while voting Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

  • Supports the Freedom to Vote Act, the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act, and ending the Senate filibuster.
  • Backs banning congressional stock trading and imposing stricter regulations on former members becoming lobbyists.
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) and H.R. 1526 (NORRA) while voting Yea on H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act).

“To restore and strengthen our democracy, Yassamin will support: The Freedom to Vote Act, which ends partisan gerrymandering, cracks down on dark money in politics...”

No Republican nominee
05

Reproductive Rights

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports codifying abortion rights federally

Ansari has made defending reproductive freedom a central commitment. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, she authored a Phoenix City Council resolution deprioritizing law enforcement of state abortion restrictions, and she pledges to codify abortion access nationally.

  • Passed a Phoenix City Council ordinance instructing police to make state abortion laws their lowest enforcement priority.
  • Supports codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law and funding the Violence Against Women Act.
  • Endorsed by Reproductive Freedom for All, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, and EMILYs List.

“When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Yassamin passed an ordinance to direct the Phoenix Police Department to make harsh state abortion laws its lowest priority for enforcement...”

No Republican nominee
06

Immigration and Border Security

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports comprehensive reform and pathway to citizenship

Ansari advocates for legal pathways to citizenship and access to legal counsel for migrants, citing her background as a daughter of immigrants. In Congress, she voted against the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation grounds while sharply criticizing federal immigration enforcement tactics.

  • Created Phoenix's first Office of Refugee Support to connect migrant families with services.
  • Supports the American Dream and Promise Act and Dignity for Detained Immigrants Act.
  • Voted Nay on S. 5 (Laken Riley Act) and H.R. 875 (DUI deportation grounds), and publicly condemned ICE conduct during traffic stops.

“Migrant families should no longer be treated as political pawns and they deserve comprehensive immigration reform.”

“Witnesses Described It as an Execution”

No Republican nominee
07

Healthcare

medium salience

Ansari supports expanded federal assistance and government intervention to lower medical costs, whereas Parkman favors market transparency and patient-centered reform.

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports lowering healthcare and drug costs

Ansari supports federal legislation to reduce healthcare, prescription, and childcare costs for working families and senior citizens. She backed local health facility infrastructure measures, including Proposition 409.

  • Pledges to lower prescription drug and medical care expenses through federal policy.
  • Endorsed Maricopa County Proposition 409 for Valleywise Health Healthcare Facilities.

“Young Arizonans can't afford housing, gas or health care”

No Republican nominee
08

Labor and Workers' Rights

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports unions, heat safety, and higher minimum wage

Ansari maintains a strong pro-union platform, having led Phoenix's Worker Heat Safety Ordinance and prevailing wage rules. In Congress, she supports raising the federal minimum wage and passing the PRO Act.

  • Spearheaded Phoenix's Worker Heat Safety Ordinance to protect 10,000 outdoor workers.
  • Supports raising the federal minimum wage and passing the Protect the Right to Organize (PRO) Act.
  • Endorsed by major unions including the Arizona AFL-CIO, Teamsters Local 104, and AFSCME.

“Labor unions uplift the middle class and help the working class build economic power.”

No Republican nominee
09

Civil Rights and LGBTQ+ Equality

low salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports Equality Act and non-discrimination laws

Ansari advocates for equal rights and non-discrimination protections for LGBTQ+ individuals. She supports the Equality Act and Respect for Marriage Act, and voted Nay on H.R. 28 regarding sports participation.

  • Supports the federal Equality Act to ban discrimination in housing, employment, and public accommodations.
  • Voted Nay on H.R. 28 (Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025).
  • Hosted downtown Phoenix's Pride On The Block festival to direct funds to local LGBTQ+ service groups.

“Yassamin will continue to fight for a world strengthened by our diversity, where our laws and society treat all people equally.”

No Republican nominee
10

Foreign Policy and National Security

low salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Opposes military intervention and supports human rights

Ansari opposes foreign military strikes and advocates for diplomacy and human rights. She criticized foreign war operations in Iran and pushed for the impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

  • Condemned U.S. military strikes in Iran and called for accountability following civilian casualties.
  • Endorsed by Foreign Policy for America and the Public Affairs Alliance of Iranian Americans.

“Children were murdered in the first days of Trump’s illegal, pointless war that has wreaked havoc across the world”

No Republican nominee

Prediction markets 2

updated Oct 31

Polymarket ↗

AZ-03 House Election Winner

98.8% Democrats
1.2% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31DEMOCRATS 98.8REPUBLICANS 1.2

Kalshi ↗

AZ-03 House winner?

96.7% Yassamin Ansari
2.9% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 24SEP 16OCT 9OCT 31ANSARI 96.7REPUBLICANS 2.9

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.