Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Arizona Safe D

Arizona — 3rd District

Portrait of Yassamin Ansari

Democrat

Yassamin Ansari

JP

Republican

Jacob Parkman

In Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, freshman Democratic Representative Yassamin Ansari faces Republican write-in candidate Jacob Parkman in the general election on November 3, 2026. The race hinges on Ansari's progressive policy record on climate, housing, and worker protections, contrasted against a write-in challenger. Major election handicappers—including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Decision Desk HQ, and Sabato's Crystal Ball—rate the election as Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
98.2%
Republicans
0.5%
Kalshi ↗
Yassamin Ansari
99.9%
Republicans
0.6%

All markets →

01

Climate change and energy

high salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports ambitious climate action and clean energy transition

Ansari views climate change as a defining challenge and advocates for net-zero emissions by 2050. She previously helped pass Phoenix's Climate Action Plan and Transportation Electrification Action Plan, and created the nation's first Office of Heat Response and Mitigation. In Congress, she advocates accelerating the transition to clean energy, weatherizing homes, expanding high-speed transit, and declaring heat a natural disaster under FEMA.

  • Achieve 100% net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 and a 100% clean energy grid
  • Work with FEMA to declare extreme heat a natural disaster to unlock emergency resources
  • Expand public transit, high-speed rail, and bus fleet electrification
  • Defend and build upon the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law

“The climate crisis is the defining issue of our time.”

“Accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
02

Abortion and reproductive rights

high salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports federal abortion rights and reproductive freedom

Ansari advocates for bodily autonomy and codifying federal abortion protections. Following the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade, she passed a municipal resolution ordering the Phoenix Police Department to make enforcement of state abortion laws its lowest priority. In Congress, she supports codifying Roe v. Wade, passing the Equal Rights Amendment, and fully funding the Violence Against Women Act.

  • Codify Roe v. Wade into federal law to restore nationwide abortion access
  • Directed Phoenix police to make state abortion restrictions their lowest enforcement priority while serving on City Council
  • Support the Equal Rights Amendment and fund the Violence Against Women Act

“When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, Yassamin passed an ordinance to direct the Phoenix Police Department to make harsh state abortion laws its lowest priority for enforcement”

“Protect a woman’s right to choose by codifying Roe v. Wade”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
03

Housing affordability and homelessness

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports federal housing construction funds and homelessness services

Ansari focuses on expanding housing supply to address regional housing shortages and rising rents. On the Phoenix City Council, she directed over $120 million in American Rescue Plan funds toward affordable housing, rental assistance, and legalizing accessory dwelling units. In Congress, she supports federal funding for affordable housing construction, zoning reforms, eviction prevention, and social housing projects.

  • Expand federal funding for affordable housing construction and Housing Choice Vouchers
  • Encourage comprehensive municipal zoning reform to ease building restrictions
  • Incentivize social housing models and outlaw source-of-income housing discrimination
  • Provide federal funding for municipal wraparound services, emergency shelters, and transitional housing

“Building more housing so we have the supply we need will be a top priority for Yassamin in Congress.”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
04

Economy and labor

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports higher minimum wage, worker protections, and higher taxes on high earners

Ansari supports expanding collective bargaining rights and raising wages for working families. As Vice Mayor of Phoenix, she spearheaded municipal prevailing wage rules and a municipal Worker Heat Safety Ordinance for outdoor workers. In Congress, she advocates raising the federal minimum wage, passing the PRO Act, expanding tax credits for working families, and raising taxes on Wall Street and the top 1%.

  • Increase the federal minimum wage and pass the Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act
  • Permanently expand the Child Tax Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit
  • Enact a comprehensive tax system requiring corporations and the wealthiest 1% to pay higher taxes
  • Voted against the Republican H.R. 1 reconciliation bill in the 119th Congress

“Strengthening unions and workers’ rights is fundamental to building an equitable economy.”

“Increase the federal minimum wage”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
05

Immigration and border policy

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports comprehensive immigration reform and legal protections for immigrants

Ansari supports comprehensive immigration legislation that establishes pathways to citizenship and expands legal protections for migrants and refugees. On the Phoenix City Council, she created the city's first Office of Refugee Support. In Congress, she voted against strict enforcement bills like the Laken Riley Act and DUI deportation legislation, and has vocalized sharp criticism of federal ICE actions.

  • Co-sponsor the American Dream and Promise Act and Dignity for Detained Immigrants Act
  • Expand legal access and representation for asylum seekers and refugees
  • Voted Nay on the Laken Riley Act (S. 5) and the Protect Our Communities from DUIs Act (H.R. 875)
  • Publicly condemned ICE enforcement actions following fatal traffic stop encounters

“Migrant families should no longer be treated as political pawns and they deserve comprehensive immigration reform.”

“Witnesses Described It as an Execution”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
06

Democracy and electoral reform

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports federal voting rights legislation and government ethics reform

Ansari prioritizes expanding voter participation, reforming campaign finance, and tightening ethics rules for government officials. She supports federal legislation to eliminate partisan gerrymandering, ban congressional stock trading, and restrict post-congressional lobbying. She voted against Republican election measures like the SAVE Act in the 119th Congress while voting for government disclosure measures like the Epstein Files Transparency Act.

  • Pass the Freedom to Vote Act and John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act
  • End the Senate filibuster and expand the U.S. Supreme Court
  • Prohibit members of Congress from trading individual stocks and restrict lobbying after leaving office
  • Voted Nay on the SAVE Act (H.R. 22) and Yea on the Epstein Files Transparency Act (H.R. 4405)

“The Freedom to Vote Act, which ends partisan gerrymandering, cracks down on dark money in politics, establishes automatic voter registration, and combats voter suppression.”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
07

LGBTQ+ rights

medium salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports federal anti-discrimination laws and LGBTQ+ equality

Ansari supports comprehensive legal protections against discrimination based on gender identity and sexual orientation. On the City Council, she hosted annual LGBTQ+ community events and directed municipal grant funding to local LGBTQ+ service providers. In Congress, she opposes restrictions on transgender participation in sports and supports passing the Equality Act.

  • Pass the federal Equality Act to ban anti-LGBTQ+ discrimination in housing, employment, and public spaces
  • Protect marriage equality nationwide through the Respect for Marriage Act
  • Ban conversion therapy practices, particularly for minors
  • Voted Nay on the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act of 2025 (H.R. 28)

“The Equality Act, which prohibits discrimination in housing, employments and public accommodations based on sexual orientation and gender identity”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
08

Education

low salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Supports increased public education funding and student loan forgiveness

Ansari advocates for lowering higher education cost barriers and increasing investments in public schools. In local office, she established the Phoenix Promise program to grant community college scholarships to low-income students. In Congress, she advocates for forgiving student debt and expanding broadband access for rural school districts.

  • Increase federal funding for public school teachers and students
  • Forgive student loan debt to promote long-term economic mobility
  • Expand rural broadband infrastructure to support access for students and teachers

“Forgive student loan debt so that younger generations can use their education to work towards economic freedom”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources
09

Foreign policy and national defense

low salience

Democratic Yassamin Ansari

Opposes foreign military intervention and criticizes military strikes

Ansari, who served as a UN climate advisor prior to entering elected office, advocates for diplomacy and opposes aggressive foreign interventions. She publicly condemned US military action in Iran during the 119th Congress and pushed for cabinet accountability.

  • Denounced US military escalation in Iran as an illegal war
  • Revived congressional impeachment effort against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth following military strikes

“Children were murdered in the first days of Trump’s illegal, pointless war that has wreaked havoc across the world”

Republican Jacob Parkman No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

AZ-03 House Election Winner

98.2% Democrats
0.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 98.2REPUBLICANS 0.5

Kalshi ↗

AZ-03 House winner?

99.9% Yassamin Ansari
0.6% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16ANSARI 99.9REPUBLICANS 0.6

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.