Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Arizona Toss-up

Arizona — 1st District

The 2026 election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District features Democratic nominee Amish Shah, an emergency room physician and former state representative, against Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and sports analyst. The seat became open after 15-year incumbent Republican David Schweikert opted to run for governor. Forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic battleground that could help decide control of the U.S. House.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Democrats
73.0%
Republicans
26.5%
Kalshi ↗
Amish Shah
72.0%
Jay Feely
31.0%

All markets →

01

Economy and Cost of Living

high salience

Shah focuses on eliminating federal tariffs to lower consumer prices, whereas Feely emphasizes deregulation and extending Trump-era tax cuts.

Democratic Amish Shah

Opposes tariffs and advocates middle-class tax relief

Shah promises to lower costs on housing, groceries, and healthcare by rolling back federal tariffs, which he characterizes as a tax on working families. He emphasizes his legislative record in the Arizona House cutting taxes and supporting small businesses.

  • Roll back federal tariffs on imported goods to lower prices on groceries, gas, cars, and housing.
  • Cut middle-class taxes and expand affordable housing and healthcare options.
  • Revive job growth and small business investment by ending tariff chaos.

“These tariffs are a tax on Arizona families that will raise costs on groceries, gas, cars, and housing, hurt small businesses, and hurt our economy.”

Republican Jay Feely

Supports tax cuts and slashing regulations

Feely advocates for expanding Trump-era tax cuts and cutting federal regulations to lower inflation and spur job creation. He focuses on restoring upward mobility and fiscal restraint to curb national debt.

  • Extend and expand the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
  • Slash federal bureaucracy and red tape to stimulate domestic manufacturing.
  • Reduce federal spending to combat inflation and national debt.

“In Congress, I’ll fight to slash red tape, expand Trump-era tax cuts, unleash domestic manufacturing, and drive down inflation.”

02

Border Security and Immigration

high salience

Feely demands physical wall completion and mass deportations, while Shah focuses primarily on fentanyl interdiction and law enforcement resources.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports border security and fentanyl interdiction

Shah emphasizes stopping the flow of illicit drugs across the southern border through increased federal funding and interdiction efforts. He ties border security directly to public safety and law enforcement support.

  • Increase funding to stop the trafficking of illegal fentanyl across the border.
  • Support law enforcement and first responders in border communities.

“In Congress, he’ll continue to work to keep our communities safe by taking action to reduce gun violence, fully funding our police, and stopping the flow of fentanyl across the border.”

Republican Jay Feely

Supports border wall completion and mass deportations

Feely calls for restoring Trump-era border policies, including completing the southern border wall and enacting mass deportations of violent undocumented offenders. He strongly criticizes current border enforcement leadership.

  • Finish construction of the southern border wall.
  • Execute mass deportations targeting violent illegal immigrants.
  • Fully back ICE and Border Patrol agents while dismantling open-border policies.

“In Congress, I’ll fight to finish the wall, dismantle the Biden/Harris open-borders agenda, and deliver results. That includes supporting mass deportations of violent offenders, fully backing our police, Border Patrol and ICE agents, and working to eradicate fentanyl before it reaches our neighborhoods.”

03

Education

low salience

Shah calls for robust federal investment in public schools and teacher pay, while Feely focuses on removing federal mandates from schools.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports public education funding and teacher pay raises

Shah emphasizes defending public school funding, increasing teacher compensation, and preserving the federal Department of Education. He also advocates reducing student debt for higher education.

  • Defend the federal Department of Education against attempts to dismantle it.
  • Increase federal funding for public schools and raise teacher salaries.
  • Lower the cost of higher education and trade training.

“In Congress, Amish will defend the Department of Education, champion increased funding for public schools, and push for better teacher pay.”

Republican Jay Feely

Opposes federal educational mandates

Feely opposes federal mandates on local schools and advocates placing educational authority back with local communities and parents.

  • Stop intrusive federal mandates affecting local public schools.

“That means protecting our water, standing up for our farmers and ranchers, defending our Second Amendment rights, and stopping out-of-control federal mandates that hurt our families, small businesses, and schools.”

04

Gun Rights and Public Safety

low salience

Shah supports gun violence reduction legislation alongside police funding, whereas Feely focuses strictly on protecting Second Amendment rights.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports gun safety legislation and police funding

Shah advocates taking federal action to curb gun violence while fully funding law enforcement and supporting local first responders.

  • Pass federal measures to reduce gun violence.
  • Provide full federal funding for police departments and first responders.

“In Congress, he’ll continue to work to keep our communities safe by taking action to reduce gun violence, fully funding our police, and stopping the flow of fentanyl across the border.”

Republican Jay Feely

Supports Second Amendment rights and police backing

Feely promises to defend Second Amendment rights against federal restrictions and pledges steadfast backing for law enforcement officers.

  • Protect gun owner rights under the Second Amendment.
  • Fully back local police, Border Patrol, and federal law enforcement.

“That means protecting our water, standing up for our farmers and ranchers, defending our Second Amendment rights, and stopping out-of-control federal mandates that hurt our families, small businesses, and schools.”

05

Healthcare and Reproductive Rights

high salience

Shah outlines a detailed platform defending abortion rights and expanding healthcare, whereas Feely presents no documented platform on abortion or healthcare.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports universal healthcare access and abortion rights

Drawing on his background as an emergency physician, Shah champions universal healthcare, lower prescription drug costs, and defending Medicaid. He strongly supports codifying abortion access and protecting reproductive medication.

  • Codify Roe v. Wade into federal law to guarantee abortion access.
  • Protect access to reproductive medications like mifepristone.
  • Expand healthcare coverage and lower prescription drug costs.
  • Reverse cuts to Medicaid and defend senior Medicare benefits.

“Dr. Shah has a 100% pro-choice voting record, and he will continue protecting a woman’s right to choose in Congress by codifying Roe v. Wade.”

Republican Jay Feely No documented position in our sources
06

Social Security and Medicare

medium salience

Shah explicitly opposes raising the Social Security age and cutting Medicare, whereas Feely offers no documented stance on senior entitlement programs.

Democratic Amish Shah

Opposes retirement benefit cuts and eligibility age increases

Shah pledges to defend Social Security and Medicare against federal funding cuts or eligibility changes proposed by congressional Republicans. He also pledges to reverse Medicaid reductions that impact vulnerable seniors.

  • Block proposals to raise the Social Security retirement age or reduce benefit payouts.
  • Protect Medicare benefits and work to lower healthcare premiums.
  • Reverse recent federal reductions to Medicaid.

“In Congress, Amish will always stand up to protect Social Security and Medicare and ensure that all Arizona seniors receive the benefits they paid for and earned.”

Republican Jay Feely No documented position in our sources
07

Democracy and Elections

medium salience

Shah proposes federal campaign finance reform and bans on gerrymandering, while Feely has no published position on democracy reforms.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports voting rights and electoral reform

Shah prioritizes protecting democratic institutions against election denialism, dark money, and partisan gerrymandering. He promises to enforce constitutional checks on executive power.

  • End partisan gerrymandering and eliminate dark money from federal campaigns.
  • Protect the integrity of voting systems and uphold election results.
  • Uphold constitutional checks and balances against executive overreach.

“In Congress, he will continue to uphold our Constitution and protect democratic institutions. Amish will combat partisan gerrymandering and is dedicated to eliminating dark money from politics and stopping corrupt politicians from enriching themselves in office.”

Republican Jay Feely No documented position in our sources
08

Energy and Environment

medium salience

Feely strongly backs fossil fuel production and deregulation, while Shah's platform does not contain a documented energy platform.

Democratic Amish Shah No documented position in our sources

Republican Jay Feely

Supports traditional energy expansion and energy independence

Feely advocates expanding domestic production of oil, natural gas, and clean coal while slashing environmental regulations. He explicitly rejects Green New Deal policies.

  • Unleash domestic production of oil, natural gas, and clean coal.
  • Eliminate federal regulatory hurdles for energy infrastructure.
  • Oppose Green New Deal mandates and subsidies.

“I proudly support President Trump’s America-First energy agenda—and I’ll work to unleash the full power of American oil, natural gas, clean coal, and the next generation of innovation.”

09

Foreign Policy and Israel

medium salience

Feely explicitly pledges staunch support for Israel and anti-antisemitism initiatives, whereas Shah has no published foreign policy platform.

Democratic Amish Shah No documented position in our sources

Republican Jay Feely

Supports strong U.S.-Israel ties and combating domestic antisemitism

Feely strongly endorses robust diplomatic and military backing for Israel and pledges to combat antisemitism, particularly on college campuses.

  • Strengthen U.S. diplomatic and military support for Israel.
  • Confront and penalize antisemitism on American college campuses.
  • Re-establish a firm America-First foreign policy posture.

“In Congress, I will stand unapologetically with Israel and fight to strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship. That includes fighting antisemitism right here at home—especially on college campuses where Jewish students are being harassed and targeted simply for being who they are.”

10

Gender and Culture Issues

medium salience

Feely makes barring biological males from women's athletics a core platform priority, while Shah takes no public position on gender restriction laws.

Democratic Amish Shah No documented position in our sources

Republican Jay Feely

Opposes transgender women competing in female athletics

Feely calls for federal legislation prohibiting biological males from participating in women's sports categories, drawing on his personal background as a former athlete, coach, and parent.

  • Codify federal restrictions barring biological men from women's sports categories.
  • Protect title opportunities and fair competition standards for female athletes.

“In Congress, I will fight to protect girls’ and women’s sports by codifying common-sense laws that ensure fair competition and keep women's titles out of men's hands.”

11

Animal Welfare

low salience

Shah lays out an explicit platform banning animal cruelty practices, while Feely lists no documented position on animal welfare.

Democratic Amish Shah

Supports anti-cruelty legislation and humane testing standards

Shah champions federal animal protection measures, including bans on puppy mills, animal fighting, and horse slaughter, while pushing for non-animal research testing methods.

  • Outlaw puppy mills, staged animal fighting, and horse slaughter for food.
  • Phase out the use of dogs and primates in medical testing in favor of modern alternatives.
  • Protect state and local authority to pass humane farming rules.

“Stop puppy mills, staged animal fighting, and horse slaughter for human consumption.”

Republican Jay Feely No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 2

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

AZ-01 House Election Winner

73.0% Democrats
26.5% Republicans
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16DEMOCRATS 73.0REPUBLICANS 26.5

Kalshi ↗

AZ-01 House winner?

72.0% Amish Shah
31.0% Jay Feely
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16SHAH 72.0FEELY 31.0

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.