2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Arizona Toss-up
Arizona — 1st District
The 2026 election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District features Democratic nominee Amish Shah, an emergency room physician and former state representative, against Republican nominee Jay Feely, a former NFL player and sports analyst. The seat became open after 15-year incumbent Republican David Schweikert opted to run for governor. Forecasters rate the general election as a Toss-up or Lean Democratic battleground that could help decide control of the U.S. House.
The pulse
updated Sep 16Economy and Cost of Living
high salienceShah focuses on eliminating federal tariffs to lower consumer prices, whereas Feely emphasizes deregulation and extending Trump-era tax cuts.
Democratic Amish Shah
Opposes tariffs and advocates middle-class tax relief
Shah promises to lower costs on housing, groceries, and healthcare by rolling back federal tariffs, which he characterizes as a tax on working families. He emphasizes his legislative record in the Arizona House cutting taxes and supporting small businesses.
- Roll back federal tariffs on imported goods to lower prices on groceries, gas, cars, and housing.
- Cut middle-class taxes and expand affordable housing and healthcare options.
- Revive job growth and small business investment by ending tariff chaos.
“These tariffs are a tax on Arizona families that will raise costs on groceries, gas, cars, and housing, hurt small businesses, and hurt our economy.”
Republican Jay Feely
Supports tax cuts and slashing regulations
Feely advocates for expanding Trump-era tax cuts and cutting federal regulations to lower inflation and spur job creation. He focuses on restoring upward mobility and fiscal restraint to curb national debt.
- Extend and expand the 2017 Trump tax cuts.
- Slash federal bureaucracy and red tape to stimulate domestic manufacturing.
- Reduce federal spending to combat inflation and national debt.
“In Congress, I’ll fight to slash red tape, expand Trump-era tax cuts, unleash domestic manufacturing, and drive down inflation.”
Border Security and Immigration
high salienceFeely demands physical wall completion and mass deportations, while Shah focuses primarily on fentanyl interdiction and law enforcement resources.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports border security and fentanyl interdiction
Shah emphasizes stopping the flow of illicit drugs across the southern border through increased federal funding and interdiction efforts. He ties border security directly to public safety and law enforcement support.
- Increase funding to stop the trafficking of illegal fentanyl across the border.
- Support law enforcement and first responders in border communities.
“In Congress, he’ll continue to work to keep our communities safe by taking action to reduce gun violence, fully funding our police, and stopping the flow of fentanyl across the border.”
Republican Jay Feely
Supports border wall completion and mass deportations
Feely calls for restoring Trump-era border policies, including completing the southern border wall and enacting mass deportations of violent undocumented offenders. He strongly criticizes current border enforcement leadership.
- Finish construction of the southern border wall.
- Execute mass deportations targeting violent illegal immigrants.
- Fully back ICE and Border Patrol agents while dismantling open-border policies.
“In Congress, I’ll fight to finish the wall, dismantle the Biden/Harris open-borders agenda, and deliver results. That includes supporting mass deportations of violent offenders, fully backing our police, Border Patrol and ICE agents, and working to eradicate fentanyl before it reaches our neighborhoods.”
Education
low salienceShah calls for robust federal investment in public schools and teacher pay, while Feely focuses on removing federal mandates from schools.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports public education funding and teacher pay raises
Shah emphasizes defending public school funding, increasing teacher compensation, and preserving the federal Department of Education. He also advocates reducing student debt for higher education.
- Defend the federal Department of Education against attempts to dismantle it.
- Increase federal funding for public schools and raise teacher salaries.
- Lower the cost of higher education and trade training.
“In Congress, Amish will defend the Department of Education, champion increased funding for public schools, and push for better teacher pay.”
Republican Jay Feely
Opposes federal educational mandates
Feely opposes federal mandates on local schools and advocates placing educational authority back with local communities and parents.
- Stop intrusive federal mandates affecting local public schools.
“That means protecting our water, standing up for our farmers and ranchers, defending our Second Amendment rights, and stopping out-of-control federal mandates that hurt our families, small businesses, and schools.”
Gun Rights and Public Safety
low salienceShah supports gun violence reduction legislation alongside police funding, whereas Feely focuses strictly on protecting Second Amendment rights.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports gun safety legislation and police funding
Shah advocates taking federal action to curb gun violence while fully funding law enforcement and supporting local first responders.
- Pass federal measures to reduce gun violence.
- Provide full federal funding for police departments and first responders.
“In Congress, he’ll continue to work to keep our communities safe by taking action to reduce gun violence, fully funding our police, and stopping the flow of fentanyl across the border.”
Republican Jay Feely
Supports Second Amendment rights and police backing
Feely promises to defend Second Amendment rights against federal restrictions and pledges steadfast backing for law enforcement officers.
- Protect gun owner rights under the Second Amendment.
- Fully back local police, Border Patrol, and federal law enforcement.
“That means protecting our water, standing up for our farmers and ranchers, defending our Second Amendment rights, and stopping out-of-control federal mandates that hurt our families, small businesses, and schools.”
Healthcare and Reproductive Rights
high salienceShah outlines a detailed platform defending abortion rights and expanding healthcare, whereas Feely presents no documented platform on abortion or healthcare.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports universal healthcare access and abortion rights
Drawing on his background as an emergency physician, Shah champions universal healthcare, lower prescription drug costs, and defending Medicaid. He strongly supports codifying abortion access and protecting reproductive medication.
- Codify Roe v. Wade into federal law to guarantee abortion access.
- Protect access to reproductive medications like mifepristone.
- Expand healthcare coverage and lower prescription drug costs.
- Reverse cuts to Medicaid and defend senior Medicare benefits.
“Dr. Shah has a 100% pro-choice voting record, and he will continue protecting a woman’s right to choose in Congress by codifying Roe v. Wade.”
Democracy and Elections
medium salienceShah proposes federal campaign finance reform and bans on gerrymandering, while Feely has no published position on democracy reforms.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports voting rights and electoral reform
Shah prioritizes protecting democratic institutions against election denialism, dark money, and partisan gerrymandering. He promises to enforce constitutional checks on executive power.
- End partisan gerrymandering and eliminate dark money from federal campaigns.
- Protect the integrity of voting systems and uphold election results.
- Uphold constitutional checks and balances against executive overreach.
“In Congress, he will continue to uphold our Constitution and protect democratic institutions. Amish will combat partisan gerrymandering and is dedicated to eliminating dark money from politics and stopping corrupt politicians from enriching themselves in office.”
Energy and Environment
medium salienceFeely strongly backs fossil fuel production and deregulation, while Shah's platform does not contain a documented energy platform.
Republican Jay Feely
Supports traditional energy expansion and energy independence
Feely advocates expanding domestic production of oil, natural gas, and clean coal while slashing environmental regulations. He explicitly rejects Green New Deal policies.
- Unleash domestic production of oil, natural gas, and clean coal.
- Eliminate federal regulatory hurdles for energy infrastructure.
- Oppose Green New Deal mandates and subsidies.
“I proudly support President Trump’s America-First energy agenda—and I’ll work to unleash the full power of American oil, natural gas, clean coal, and the next generation of innovation.”
Foreign Policy and Israel
medium salienceFeely explicitly pledges staunch support for Israel and anti-antisemitism initiatives, whereas Shah has no published foreign policy platform.
Republican Jay Feely
Supports strong U.S.-Israel ties and combating domestic antisemitism
Feely strongly endorses robust diplomatic and military backing for Israel and pledges to combat antisemitism, particularly on college campuses.
- Strengthen U.S. diplomatic and military support for Israel.
- Confront and penalize antisemitism on American college campuses.
- Re-establish a firm America-First foreign policy posture.
“In Congress, I will stand unapologetically with Israel and fight to strengthen the U.S.-Israel relationship. That includes fighting antisemitism right here at home—especially on college campuses where Jewish students are being harassed and targeted simply for being who they are.”
Gender and Culture Issues
medium salienceFeely makes barring biological males from women's athletics a core platform priority, while Shah takes no public position on gender restriction laws.
Republican Jay Feely
Opposes transgender women competing in female athletics
Feely calls for federal legislation prohibiting biological males from participating in women's sports categories, drawing on his personal background as a former athlete, coach, and parent.
- Codify federal restrictions barring biological men from women's sports categories.
- Protect title opportunities and fair competition standards for female athletes.
“In Congress, I will fight to protect girls’ and women’s sports by codifying common-sense laws that ensure fair competition and keep women's titles out of men's hands.”
Animal Welfare
low salienceShah lays out an explicit platform banning animal cruelty practices, while Feely lists no documented position on animal welfare.
Democratic Amish Shah
Supports anti-cruelty legislation and humane testing standards
Shah champions federal animal protection measures, including bans on puppy mills, animal fighting, and horse slaughter, while pushing for non-animal research testing methods.
- Outlaw puppy mills, staged animal fighting, and horse slaughter for food.
- Phase out the use of dogs and primates in medical testing in favor of modern alternatives.
- Protect state and local authority to pass humane farming rules.
“Stop puppy mills, staged animal fighting, and horse slaughter for human consumption.”
Prediction markets 2
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Social Security and Medicare
medium salienceShah explicitly opposes raising the Social Security age and cutting Medicare, whereas Feely offers no documented stance on senior entitlement programs.
D Democratic Amish Shah
Opposes retirement benefit cuts and eligibility age increases
Shah pledges to defend Social Security and Medicare against federal funding cuts or eligibility changes proposed by congressional Republicans. He also pledges to reverse Medicaid reductions that impact vulnerable seniors.