Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Alabama Safe R

Alabama — 1st District

The 2026 special election for Alabama's 1st Congressional District features Democratic candidate Clyde Jones, a retired U.S. Army veteran, facing Republican candidate Jerry Carl, a former U.S. Representative who previously represented the district from 2021 to 2025. The race takes place following a rescheduled primary date resulting from mid-decade redistricting legislation passed after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, with incumbent Republican Barry Moore not running for re-election. Key drivers in the matchup include healthcare access, economic affordability, federal budget spending, and border security. Major election handicappers, including Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball, rate the special general election as Solid Republican or Safe Republican.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
95.0%
Democrats
2.5%
Kalshi ↗
Jerry Carl
98.2%
Clyde Jones
1.7%
Kalshi ↗
Jerry Carl
99.9%
James Richardson
5.0%
Joshua McKee
4.0%
Austin Sidwell
2.0%
John Mills
2.0%
Jimmy Dees
1.7%
Rhett Marques
0.1%

All markets →

01

Healthcare

high salience

Jones advocates for comprehensive, universal healthcare to protect citizens from health emergency costs, while Carl consistently voted against federal health mandates and healthcare subsidy extensions.

Democratic Clyde Jones

Supports comprehensive healthcare for all

Jones identifies healthcare as a top personal passion and central campaign theme. He advocates for universal healthcare coverage without exceptions so that working families do not face financial ruin due to medical emergencies.

  • Proposes comprehensive healthcare for all without exceptions.
  • Focuses on preventing financial ruin for Alabama taxpayers caused by health emergencies.

“Comprehensive healthcare for all. No exceptions and nobody left behind.”

“Hard working taxpayers of Alabama should never have to fear financial ruin from a health emergency.”

Republican Jerry Carl

Opposes federal health mandates

Carl opposes federal healthcare expansions and government mandates. During his tenure in Congress, he voted to terminate federal COVID-19 vaccine mandates for foreign travelers, end the COVID-19 national emergency, and opposed the Inflation Reduction Act.

  • Voted Yea on H.R. 185 to terminate CDC COVID-19 proof of vaccination requirements for foreign travelers.
  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res. 7 to end the national coronavirus state of emergency.
  • Voted against the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, which extended Affordable Care Act subsidies.
02

Economy and Spending

high salience

Jones prioritizes worker rights and consumer affordability, while Carl focuses on limiting federal spending, imposing work requirements on public benefits, and pledging against tax increases.

Democratic Clyde Jones

Supports worker rights and affordability

Jones highlights affordability and workers' rights among his primary policy passions. He advocates for a government focused on delivering honest representation and financial relief to everyday working taxpayers.

  • Identifies affordability and workers' rights as primary public policy passions.
  • Emphasizes holding government accountable to working taxpayers.

“1) Health Care 2) Work's Rights 3) Affordability”

Republican Jerry Carl

Supports fiscal restraints and tax relief

Carl signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and consistently voted to curb federal spending, impose debt limit caps, and add work requirements to assistance programs. He opposed major spending bills such as the American Rescue Plan and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

  • Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge committing to oppose tax increases.
  • Voted Yea on Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 (H.R. 2811) to cap federal spending and expand SNAP and TANF work requirements.
  • Voted Yea on Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023 (H.R. 3746) to cap non-defense spending.
  • Voted Nay on American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.
03

Government Governance and Elections

medium salience

Jones centers his message on total transparency and constituent accountability, whereas Carl has consistently voted against federal overhauls of voting access and election laws.

Democratic Clyde Jones

Supports complete government transparency

Jones makes government transparency and representative accountability core pillars of his platform. He emphasizes that members of Congress must answer directly to their constituents rather than political party leaders or the White House.

  • Pledges total government transparency, honesty, and accountability for citizens.
  • Emphasizes that elected representatives work for district residents over political party interests.

“Total government transparency. No politics. No excuses. 100% honesty and accountability for our citizens.”

“Congress needs to remember who they work for-not their party, not the White House, but the people in their district.”

Republican Jerry Carl

Opposes federal election administration overhaul

Carl voted against federal election reform legislation proposed by Democrats that aimed to establish national standards for voting access and campaign finance. He also voted against federal updates to the electoral vote counting process.

  • Voted Nay on For the People Act of 2021 (H.R. 1).
  • Voted Nay on Freedom to Vote: John R. Lewis Act.
  • Voted Nay on Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Improvement Act of 2022.
04

Veterans and Defense

medium salience

Jones emphasizes his personal 21-year active duty military career and combat record, while Carl points to his congressional committee service and votes authorizing defense budgets and veteran toxic-exposure healthcare.

Democratic Clyde Jones

Highlights decorated military leadership service

Jones grounds his qualifications in his 21-year career in the U.S. Army as a First Sergeant and Bronze Star recipient. He highlights his combat service in Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom II as foundational to his leadership approach.

  • Served 21 years as a Signal Communications Soldier in the U.S. Army (1984–2005).
  • Combat veteran of Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom II awarded the Bronze Star.

“He is a Retired U.S. Army First Sergeant with 21 years of service as a Signal Communications Solider. He is also a Desert Storm and Operation Iraqi Freedom II Veteran as well as a Bronze Star Recipient.”

Republican Jerry Carl

Supports defense authorization and veterans

Carl served on the House Committee on Armed Services and consistently supported national defense authorization legislation. He also voted to expand healthcare access and benefits for veterans exposed to toxic substances during military service.

  • Assigned to the House Committee on Armed Services during the 117th Congress.
  • Voted Yea on the PACT Act of 2022 (S. 3373) for toxic-exposed veterans.
  • Voted Yea on National Defense Authorization Acts (NDAA) for FY 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025.
05

Border Security and Immigration

high salience
Democratic Clyde Jones No documented position in our sources

Republican Jerry Carl

Supports strict border enforcement

Carl supports stringent border security policies and strict immigration enforcement. He voted to restrict asylum eligibility, mandate workplace legal status verification, and impeach the Secretary of Homeland Security.

  • Voted Yea on Secure the Border Act of 2023 (H.R. 2) to limit asylum eligibility and mandate E-Verify.
  • Voted Yea on H.Res. 863 to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
  • Voted Nay on American Dream and Promise Act of 2021 (H.R. 6).
06

Energy and Environment

medium salience
Democratic Clyde Jones No documented position in our sources

Republican Jerry Carl

Supports expanding domestic energy production

Carl favors expanding domestic oil, natural gas, and coal production while streamlining environmental permitting rules. He has voted to repeal green energy tax credits and block corporate environmental, social, and governance (ESG) retirement rules.

  • Voted Yea on Lower Energy Costs Act (H.R. 1) to increase fossil fuel production and lower permitting restrictions.
  • Voted Yea on H.J.Res. 30 to nullify Labor Department rules permitting ESG considerations in retirement plan investments.
  • Voted to repeal green energy tax credits under H.R. 2811.
07

Gun Policy

medium salience
Democratic Clyde Jones No documented position in our sources

Republican Jerry Carl

Opposes federal gun control restrictions

Carl opposes federal limits on firearm sales and ownership. During his time in the House, he voted against bans on semiautomatic assault weapons, universal background check mandates, and red flag grant funding.

  • Voted Nay on Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 (H.R. 1808).
  • Voted Nay on Bipartisan Background Checks Act of 2021 (H.R. 8).
  • Voted Nay on Bipartisan Safer Communities Act (S. 2938).
08

Abortion

medium salience
Democratic Clyde Jones No documented position in our sources

Republican Jerry Carl

Opposes federal abortion access protections

Carl opposes federal legislation establishing abortion rights. In Congress, he voted against measures prohibiting governmental restrictions on abortion access.

  • Voted Nay on Women's Health Protection Act of 2021 (H.R. 3755).

Prediction markets 3

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

AL-01 House Election Winner

95.0% Republicans
2.5% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 95.0DEMOCRATS 2.5

Kalshi ↗

AL-01 House winner?

98.2% Jerry Carl
1.7% Clyde Jones
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CARL 98.2PARTY 94.6PARTY 3.0JONES 1.7

Kalshi ↗

AL-01 Republican nominee?

99.9% Jerry Carl
5.0% James Richardson
4.0% Joshua McKee

+4 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16CARL 99.9RICHARDSON 5.0MCKEE 4.0SIDWELL 2.0MILLS 2.0DEES 1.7MARQUES 0.1

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.