Pluribus AI 2026 Election

2026 Midterms · U.S. House · Alaska Likely R

Alaska — At-Large District

Portrait of Nicholas Begich

Republican

Nicholas Begich

The 2026 election for Alaska's At-large Congressional District features incumbent Republican Nicholas Begich facing Democratic nominee Eric Hafner. Hafner notably qualified for the ballot while serving a 20-year federal prison sentence in New York for threatening elected officials. Major political forecasters—including Cook Political Report, Decision Desk HQ, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball—rate the race as 'Likely Republican'. The matchup hinges on resource development versus green transition policies, addressing Alaska's high cost of living, federal land access, and the district's top-four primary and ranked-choice voting dynamics.

The pulse

updated Sep 16
Polymarket ↗
Republicans
81.0%
Democrats
7.0%
Kalshi ↗
Bill Hill
99.0%
John Brendan Williams
99.0%
Nicholas Begich
97.0%
Matthew Schultz
39.0%
Matthew Williams
1.0%
Kalshi ↗
Republicans
85.0%
Bill Hill
15.0%
Democrats
4.9%
Kalshi ↗
Nicholas Begich
85.0%
Bill Hill
17.0%
Matt Schultz
1.2%
Gavin Solomon
0.3%
John Williams
0.2%

All markets →

01

Energy and natural resources

high salience

Begich supports long-term expansion of Alaska's oil, gas, and mineral industries, whereas Hafner opposes ANWR drilling and calls for halting fossil fuel expansion to transition toward green energy.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Opposes ANWR drilling and favors green transition

Hafner opposes oil drilling in ANWR and favors transitioning away from fossil fuels toward a green economy. He advocates for halting oil expansion while developing alternative revenue sources and protecting pristine waters.

  • Expresses firm opposition to oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR).
  • Calls for discontinuing fossil fuel expansion to support a transition to green energy.
  • Emphasizes protecting salmon habitats and pristine waters from mining and drilling pollution.

“I remain opposed to drilling in ANWR.”

“The world is moving toward a greener approach, away from environmentally damaging fossil fuels.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports expanded oil, gas, and mineral development

Begich advocates an 'American Energy First' platform, stating that oil and gas will remain central to Alaska's economy for the next 50-100 years. He pushes for robust domestic production, mining expansion for critical minerals, and rotational timber leasing.

  • Promotes an 'all-of-the-above' strategy for oil, gas, and North Slope natural gas pipeline infrastructure.
  • Supports expanding mining for base metals, precious metals, and critical minerals essential for supply chains.
  • Advocates restoring smart, rotational timber leases in Southeast Alaska.

“Alaska’s oil and gas resources are a critical part of America’s energy mix and help to ensure that American families and businesses have the energy needed to heat homes, drive to and from work, operate factories, and more.”

“Oil and gas will continue to be crucial to Alaska's economy for the next 50-100 years.”

02

Economy and cost of living

high salience

Begich focuses on Jones Act exemptions and low taxes to lower shipping and consumer costs, whereas Hafner advocates deploying federal supply networks to remote areas and establishing public housing.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports military-style supply deployment and public supports

Hafner proposes direct federal interventions to address Alaska's high cost of living, including shipping supplies using military PX-style distribution systems. He also emphasizes federal funding to end homelessness and provide public housing for all.

  • Proposes federal deployment of supplies to remote Alaska residents similar to military PX operations.
  • Advocates for public housing for all and prioritizing support for homeless veterans.
  • Supports a national 'War on Poverty' and federal investments in working-class communities.

“America can provide supplies throughout the world if we are deployed-the same effort can support our residents in Alaska. Food can be provided the same way the PX serves our military families”

“homelessness should not be part of America's landscape.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Favors Jones Act exemption and tax cuts

Begich addresses Alaska's high living expenses by advocating for Jones Act exemptions, tax cuts, and regulatory streamlining. He also focuses on expanding road and rail networks to reduce expensive air transport dependencies.

  • Advocates for exempting Alaska from the Jones Act to reduce maritime shipping costs.
  • Supports keeping taxes low and cutting red tape to stimulate job creation.
  • Proposes infrastructure expansion, including roads and railways, to connect remote hubs and lower goods transportation costs.

“Advocating for an exemption from the Jones Act for Alaska could reduce shipping costs, making everyday items more affordable for Alaskans.”

“Maintaining low taxes is crucial for fostering a business-friendly environment that attracts investment and supports job creation.”

03

Healthcare and reproductive rights

high salience

Hafner favors single-payer universal healthcare and protected abortion access, while Begich endorses free-market healthcare competition and Medicaid work requirements.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports universal healthcare and abortion rights

Hafner supports a single-payer universal healthcare system ('Healthcare For All') and protecting abortion rights nationwide. He believes medical decisions belong exclusively between a patient and provider and favors free access to contraception.

  • Supports implementing a universal public single-payer healthcare system.
  • Advocates for complete reproductive freedom and free access to contraceptives.
  • Views healthcare access as a fundamental right and American healthcare as currently disgraceful.

“Healthcare decisions are between a woman and her medical provider.”

“Healthcare For All including the Right to Choose”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports free market healthcare reforms and Medicaid work rules

Begich emphasizes market-based reforms to address Alaska's high healthcare costs, such as direct primary care and prescription drug price negotiations. He also favors implementing work requirements for able-bodied Medicaid recipients.

  • Promotes direct primary care and price transparency innovations.
  • Supports negotiating prescription drug prices and increasing market competition.
  • Advocates tightening work requirements for able-bodied Medicaid recipients.

“We can find cost savings by increasing competition, negotiating prescription drug prices, and tightening work requirements for able-bodied Medicaid recipients.”

04

Education

medium salience

Begich supports school choice vouchers and federal block grants for local control, whereas Hafner advocates making all public colleges and universities tuition-free.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports tuition-free public college

Hafner advocates for tuition-free public college education across the United States. He also promotes lifelong learning agendas and using Alaska's university system to attract higher-tuition international students.

  • Proposes making public college education completely free, treating it as an extension of public K-12 education.
  • Advocates lifelong learning programs to re-skill workers for new economic opportunities.
  • Encourages recruiting international students to higher education institutions to offset costs.

“College should be free for all to attend, just like public K-12 education.”

“Education w/lifelong learning agendas will prepare Alaskans for successful careers.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports school choice and block grants

Begich advocates for school choice policies where funding follows the student among public, private, and homeschool options. He supports shifting federal education funding into state block grants to maximize local control and parental rights.

  • Supports school choice options, including public, private, and homeschool voucher models.
  • Proposes converting federal education funding into state block grants for local decision-making.
  • Emphasizes parental rights and open dialogue between educators and parents regarding curriculum.

“Parents must have the opportunity to place their children in the educational environment that best meets their needs and gives those children the best chance at success.”

“Further, any federal education funding should come in the form of block grants to the states, allowing a greater level of local control over how such funds are deployed in the classroom.”

05

Fisheries and maritime economy

medium salience

Begich emphasizes bycatch management, scientific research, and predator control to balance fisheries, while Hafner focuses on preventing industrial pollution and securing Native subsistence rights.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports protecting pristine waters and Native subsistence fishing

Hafner highlights the protection of pristine waters from industrial pollution to maintain Alaska's salmon and commercial fishing industries. He stresses the vital necessity of respecting and funding Native subsistence fisheries.

  • Opposes mineral and oil extraction that poses pollution risks to salmon habitats.
  • Endorses federal protection and support for Alaska Native subsistence fishing rights.
  • Promotes marketing Alaska's high-protein seafood industries across national markets.

“Support of Alaska fisheries, especially Native is vital to substance & economy.”

“Salmon & fishing industries require pristine waters. Already they pollution impost has been detrimental.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports balancing user groups and bycatch management

Begich treats fisheries as essential to food security and economic sustainability, advocating a balance between subsistence, commercial, and sport interests. He focuses on limiting bycatch, managing overfishing through science, and conducting predator control.

  • Pushes for managing fisheries to achieve maximum sustainable yield across all user sectors.
  • Supports investments in scientific ocean research to reduce bycatch and track ocean food chains.
  • Advocates predator monitoring and control to preserve fish stocks.

“Limiting bycatch and overfishing; investing in ongoing research focused on ocean food chains, currents, population variance, genetics; and predator monitoring and control will all help ensure that Alaska’s fisheries remain reliable and predictable sources of sustenance, enjoyment, and revenue for generations to come.”

06

Infrastructure and federal spending

medium salience

Begich opposes congressionally directed earmarks in favor of resource access and major transit builds, while Hafner favors robust federal spending on universal public services.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports universal federal service spending and targeted Alaskan funding

Hafner advocates for expansive federal spending on universal public services that directly benefit residents, such as housing and education. He rejects zero-sum competition between states for federal dollars while noting Alaska's high per-capita spending needs.

  • Supports universal federal expenditures that elevate basic quality of life across all states.
  • Rejects political competition that trades federal spending in one state against another.
  • Favors heavy federal funding for public housing, education, and healthcare infrastructure.

“I support services that directly benefit each Alaskan. I also support service expenditures for all states that help folks live a healthy quality of life.”

“We don't have to trade one state against another.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports major transportation builds and opposes earmarks

Begich supports major infrastructure projects like roads, railways, bridges, and tunnels to connect Alaska's remote communities. However, he explicitly opposes congressionally directed spending (earmarks), preferring land access and resource-driven economic growth.

  • Supports major projects like the A2A Railway, Knik Arm Bridge, and Ambler District Road.
  • Explicitly opposes congressionally directed spending (earmarks) for Alaska.
  • Advocates for expanding broadband digital infrastructure and Arctic deep-water ports.

“No, I do not support the use of congressionally directed spending for Alaska.”

“Expanding and improving our transportation infrastructure is essential for reducing costs and enhancing connectivity.”

07

Foreign policy and national security

medium salience

Begich advocates strengthening Alaska's strategic military infrastructure and Arctic posture, whereas Hafner calls for cutting defense spending and halting arms shipments to Israel.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports Israel-Palestine ceasefire and defense cuts

Hafner calls for an immediate cease-fire in the Israel-Palestine conflict and an end to U.S. arms shipments to Israel. In earlier platforms, he also advocated cutting overall national defense spending.

  • Calls for an immediate cease-fire in the Israel-Palestine conflict.
  • Opposes U.S. foreign military arms shipments, arguing Israel can defend itself.
  • Advocated cutting U.S. defense spending in campaign platforms.

“I don't think America should have started supplying arms. Israel is very capable of defending itself & has a trained military to do so.”

“Call for an immediate cease fire.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports Alaska defense footprint and Arctic deterrence

Begich emphasizes Alaska's strategic position in American national defense, highlighting cold-weather combat training, missile defense, and Arctic deterrence. He supports maintaining advanced fighter presence and defense infrastructure.

  • Highlights Alaska's role as a primary gateway for Arctic access and Pacific military operations.
  • Supports maintaining missile defense readiness and 5th-generation military fighter deployments in Alaska.
  • Advocates for defense-related technological innovation and Arctic security research.

“Alaska is a critical component of America’s national security strategy.”

“With more 5th generation fighters now positioned in Alaska than any other single location on earth, Alaska is poised to support America’s defense missions both at home and in the Pacific.”

08

Tribal relations and land management

medium salience

Hafner emphasizes respecting Native land claims and rectifying historical tribal injustices, while Begich focuses on 10th Amendment state rights to unlock federal lands for development.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports Native sovereignty, cultural education, and historical justice

Hafner emphasizes respecting Alaska Native land claims, Indigenous sovereignty, and subsistence hunting traditions. He acknowledges historical injustices such as forced residential schooling and advocates for integrating accurate history into education.

  • Calls for respecting Alaska Native land claims and Indigenous sovereignty.
  • Recognizes historical injustices including forced residential schools that harmed Native identity.
  • Defends Native hunting rights for survival and cultural continuity.

“Native Indigenous peoples have considerable claim to areas. It's long overdue to respect these realities.”

“Recognizing these heartbreaking injustices is the first step.”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Supports 10th Amendment state control over federal lands

Begich focuses on 10th Amendment state rights, pushing for congressionally mandated access to federal lands in Alaska for resource development and infrastructure growth. He argues federal restrictions improperly stifle state self-determination.

  • Cites the 10th Amendment to limit federal regulatory authority over land management.
  • Advocates for congressionally mandated access to federal lands for state resources.
  • Encourages public-private partnerships to fund infrastructure across undeveloped lands.

“Under the 10th Amendment, “the powers not delegated to the United States by the Constitution, nor prohibited by it to the States, are reserved to the States respectively, or to the people.””

09

Financial policy and cryptocurrency

low salience

Begich champions private cryptocurrencies and opposes government-backed CBDCs, whereas Hafner previously proposed nationalizing private banks.

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports nationalizing banks and building socialism

In earlier survey responses, Hafner proposed nationalizing banks and building a socialist economic structure to combat corporate corruption and protect working-class interests.

  • Proposed nationalizing banks to protect working people from corporate greed.
  • Advocated for building a socialist economic system.
  • Criticized corporate corruption and economic inequality in financial systems.

“nationalize the banks, and end the prison industrial complex.”

“Building Socialism”

Republican Nicholas Begich

Opposes CBDCs and supports cryptocurrencies

Begich supports private cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and precious metals as hedges against inflation and currency debasement. He opposes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) over financial surveillance concerns.

  • Opposes Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) to protect privacy and individual autonomy.
  • Endorses private cryptocurrencies and precious metals to preserve financial sovereignty.
  • Pledges to foster a light-touch regulatory environment that encourages private market financial innovation.

“I oppose CBDCs as they centralize power rather than democratize it, threatening to compromise the individual freedom and privacy that is foundational to our financial sovereignty.”

“By supporting financial innovation within the private marketplace, we can ensure a future where economic power and privacy are restored to the people”

10

Guns and Second Amendment rights

medium salience
Democratic Eric Hafner No documented position in our sources

Republican Nicholas Begich

Opposes gun control restrictions

Begich strongly defends Second Amendment rights as foundational to American self-determination and liberty. He opposes federal gun control legislation and restrictions on firearm possession.

  • Takes an originalist stance that firearm ownership is a foundational constitutional right.
  • Opposes federal restrictions on gun ownership, hunting, and personal defense arms.
  • Views an armed citizenry as essential for self-defense, national security, and guarding against tyrannical governance.

“Whether it be for defense of tyrannical governance, national security, personal defense, or hunting, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

11

Criminal justice and drug policy

low salience

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports legalizing all drugs and voting rights for prisoners

Hafner advocates for legalizing all drugs, shifting from a 'War on Drugs' to a 'War on Poverty'. He also supports voting rights for prisoners, ending police misconduct, and dismantling the prison industrial complex.

  • Calls for nationwide legalization of all drugs.
  • Supports restoring voting rights to incarcerated individuals.
  • Advocates ending police misconduct and the prison industrial complex.

“Ending Police Misconduct, Legalizing All Drugs, Building Socialism”

“allow prisoners to vote, build public housing for all, implement a universal public healthcare system, nationalize the banks, and end the prison industrial complex.”

Republican Nicholas Begich No documented position in our sources
12

Immigration

low salience

Democratic Eric Hafner

Supports bipartisan negotiation without theatrics

Hafner calls on Congressional stakeholders to convene and remain in negotiations until reaching a consensus immigration reform plan, criticizing political theatrics and media posturing.

  • Urges stakeholders to negotiate behind closed doors until an agreement is finalized.
  • Demands an end to Congressional procrastination and attention-seeking theatrics on border issues.

“Get all the stakeholders in one room. Close the door. You don't leave until you agree on a forward plan.”

Republican Nicholas Begich No documented position in our sources

Prediction markets 4

updated Sep 16

Polymarket ↗

AK-AL House Election Winner

81.0% Republicans
7.0% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 81.0DEMOCRATS 7.0

Kalshi ↗

AK-AL primary: Who will advance?

99.0% Bill Hill
99.0% John Brendan Williams
97.0% Nicholas Begich

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16HILL 99.0WILLIAMS 99.0BEGICH 97.0SCHULTZ 39.0WILLIAMS 1.0

Kalshi ↗

Alaska House winner?

85.0% Republicans
15.0% Bill Hill
4.9% Democrats
255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16REPUBLICANS 85.0HILL 15.0DEMOCRATS 4.9

Kalshi ↗

Alaska U.S. House winner? (Person)

85.0% Nicholas Begich
17.0% Bill Hill
1.2% Matt Schultz

+2 more outcomes

255075100AUG 1AUG 13AUG 25SEP 6SEP 16BEGICH 85.0HILL 17.0SCHULTZ 1.2SOLOMON 0.3WILLIAMS 0.2

Prices are the market's latest daily close, expressed as an implied win probability. Follow a source link for live prices and volume.