--- title: "Early vs. Carter: 2026 Texas’ 31st District race" url: "https://www.2026election.com/race/2026-house-tx-31" updated: "2026-08-01" source: "Candidates' campaign sites and Ballotpedia, quoted verbatim" publisher: "Pluribus" --- # 2026 Texas’ 31st District race: Justin Early (D) vs. John Carter (R) Rating: Safe R · Election: November 3, 2026 · Ballot checked: October 9, 2026 · Positions captured: August 1, 2026 In Texas's 31st Congressional District, 12-term Republican incumbent John Carter faces Democratic nominee Justin Early in the 2026 general election under Texas's redrawn congressional boundaries. The race hinges on Carter's long tenure and senior leadership on the House Appropriations Committee versus Early's platform focused on worker rights, VA modernization, cybersecurity, and strict AI and datacenter guardrails. ## Candidates - **Justin Early** (Democrat) · [Campaign site](https://www.votejustinearly.com/) · [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) - **John Carter** (Republican, incumbent) · [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) ## Issues ### Veterans' Affairs Salience: high Early calls for reversing Trump-era VA budget cuts and increasing medical staffing, while Carter highlights his leadership as Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman overseeing military construction and veterans funding. **Justin Early:** Expand VA funding and modernize services Early promises to reverse VA funding cuts and eliminate claims backlogs. He advocates modernizing VA facilities with updated technology and hiring more doctors and nurses to reduce wait times for veterans. - Reverse VA funding cuts made during the Trump administration - Clear claims and care backlogs while reducing administrative red tape - Modernize VA facilities and technology infrastructure - Recruit and retain additional VA doctors and nurses > “I’ll never threaten the lives of our vets with crappy healthcare at the VA.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “Veterans fought for us, and I’ll fight for them by restoring the funding needed to provide the care and services they deserve.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** Funds military construction and veterans programs Carter serves as Chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies. His legislative record emphasizes directing federal resources to military infrastructure and veterans' programs, particularly supporting Fort Hood. - Serves as Chairman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies - Voted for the 2026 Continuing Appropriations Act funding military construction and veterans affairs ### Immigration & Border Security Salience: high Carter supports mandatory DHS detention for certain non-citizen arrestees and strict border enforcement, whereas Early advocates ending private detention and establishing a clear pathway to citizenship. **Justin Early:** Supports humane border policies and citizenship pathways Early advocates ending family separations and private detention centers while providing clear pathways to citizenship for legal immigrants and Dreamers. He also supports reforming immigration courts and addressing the root causes of migration. - Provide a clear pathway to citizenship for legal immigrants and permanent protections for Dreamers - End family separation policies and the use of private detention facilities - Reform immigration courts and overturn Trump-era policies targeting minority communities - Address root causes of migration through global partnerships > “America’s success depends on hardworking immigrant families, and we must treat them with dignity.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “No child should be torn from their parents in the name of politics or deterrence. I will ensure families are treated with humanity and dignity.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** Supports strict border enforcement and deterrence Carter favors strict border security measures, punishing illegal entry, and empowering law enforcement to stop drug cartels. In 2025, he voted for the Laken Riley Act requiring DHS to detain non-citizens arrested for theft or burglary. - Voted for the Laken Riley Act (S.5) mandating DHS detention of non-citizens arrested for theft or burglary - Supports punishing illegal entry while encouraging legal immigration - Previously chaired the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security > “It’s important we fix the broken immigration system that continues to encourage the drug cartels to sneak people and drugs into this country illegally.” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) > “We must create a system that encourages immigrate legally and punishes those who enter illegally!” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) ### Economy, Taxes & Labor Salience: high Early advocates for tax cuts for working families funded by higher taxes on billionaires along with federal paid leave mandates, while Carter opposes tax increases and advocates federal spending cuts and deregulation. **Justin Early:** Supports worker protections and progressive tax reform Early proposes lowering taxes for working families while shifting the tax burden to billionaires. He advocates for federally guaranteed paid family leave, vacation, and sick leave, alongside stronger union protections and penalties for abusive employers. - Shift the tax burden off working families and onto billionaires - Guarantee paid family leave, vacation time, sick leave, and bereavement leave for all workers - Strengthen labor unions and empower workers against wage theft and workplace harassment - Penalize employers who prevent workers from voting > “Lower taxes for everyday Americans—if you work hard, you shouldn’t pay more than billionaires.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “Push for guaranteed family leave—if billionaires get vacations, why not hardworking Americans?” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** Supports spending cuts, deregulation, and tax pledges Carter advocates cutting federal spending, loosening regulatory burdens, and preserving lower tax rates to stimulate business growth. He signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge and voted for the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1). - Signed the Taxpayer Protection Pledge opposing net tax increases - Voted for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1) addressing tax policy and spending reconciliation - Voted for H.Con.Res.14 establishing the congressional budget framework through 2034 - Advocates cutting federal spending and reducing regulatory oversight > “The President and the Democrat Senate need to cut spending, tighten the budget and demand regulators to loosen their vice-grip on our economy!” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) > “Forty-nine percent of jobs over the last decade have been created in Texas! Texas is leading our country out of this sluggish economy...” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) ### Voting Rights & Election Integrity Salience: medium Carter voted for federal mandates requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote, whereas Early advocates federal legislation to curb voter suppression and gerrymandering. **Justin Early:** Supports expanding voter access and protecting elections Early supports federal protections against voter suppression, gerrymandering, and election interference. He proposes penalizing employers who hinder employee voting access and combating AI-driven disinformation. - Protect voting rights against suppression and gerrymandering - Penalize employers who prevent employees from voting - Safeguard elections from AI deepfakes and foreign cyber interference > “Every American deserves an equal voice in our democracy, free from voter suppression, gerrymandering, or interference.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “Punish employers who prevent workers from voting, undermining our democracy.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** Supports proof of citizenship for voting Carter voted for the SAVE Act (H.R.22) to require proof of citizenship for federal election registration. In January 2021, he voted against certifying electoral vote counts from Arizona and Pennsylvania. - Voted for the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act (H.R.22) - Voted against certifying the 2020 presidential electoral vote counts for Arizona and Pennsylvania ### Artificial Intelligence & Data Centers Salience: medium **Justin Early:** Supports strict regulations on AI and data centers Early proposes strict guardrails on artificial intelligence, including bans on autonomous lethal weapons and AI-controlled nuclear launches. He also advocates regulating large-scale data centers to protect power grid stability, local water supplies, and neighborhood noise levels. - Prohibit AI from making autonomous lethal weapons decisions or controlling nuclear launch capabilities - Prevent AI sentience and demand corporate transparency for AI algorithm behavior - Regulate AI in employment screening to prevent bias and surveillance overreach - Enforce regulations on data center development to protect electric grid stability, clean water, and community noise standards > “AI Without Guardrails Is a Risk Texans Did Not Agree To” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “Ban AI from deciding when to launch nukes—this should always remain in human hands.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** No documented position in our sources ### Social Security & Senior Care Salience: medium **Justin Early:** Opposes privatization and supports benefit expansion Early opposes Social Security privatization and advocates raising funding by eliminating the payroll tax cap for high earners. He supports expanding benefits, adjusting COLA formulas to match real living expenses, and opposing increases to the retirement age. - Remove the payroll tax contribution cap on high-income earners - Oppose Social Security privatization and attempts to raise the retirement age - Expand benefits and adjust COLA mechanisms to cover senior living expenses - Secure Social Security Administration databases against cyberattacks > “Social Security will always remain a public program because it is a social contract, not a gamble on Wall Street.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “The current system unfairly caps contributions for the wealthy. Let’s remove the income cap so billionaires pay into the program like everyone else.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** No documented position in our sources ### Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Salience: medium **Justin Early:** Supports hardening critical infrastructure and data protection Drawing on his background in cybersecurity and DIA systems administration, Early emphasizes protecting the electrical grid, clean water supply, fuel systems, and hospital networks against cyber threats and natural disasters. - Fortify the electrical grid, transportation networks, and fuel sources against cyberattacks - Protect personal financial and healthcare data from cybercriminals and foreign entities - Protect clean drinking water systems and community hospital emergency funding > “cybersecurity affects everything and everyone. America must be rock solid against nefarious hackers and other threats to our safety.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “From power plants to transportation networks, our infrastructure is vulnerable to hackers. I’ll push for stronger cybersecurity measures to protect the systems we rely on every day.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** No documented position in our sources ### Education Salience: medium **Justin Early:** Supports free public education and opposes vouchers Early supports expanding access to free public education and investing in career and technical education programs. He opposes national school voucher programs that redirect public tax dollars to private or religious schools. - Provide free, accessible public education for all students - Invest in career and technical education (CTE) - Oppose national school voucher schemes to keep public tax dollars in public schools > “Public dollars belong in public schools, not diverted to unaccountable private or religious institutions.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “I’ll work to ensure every child, no matter their zip code, has access to a quality education that prepares them for the future.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** No documented position in our sources ### Abortion & Pro-Life Policies Salience: medium **Justin Early:** No documented position in our sources **John Carter:** Opposes abortion and supports pro-life policies Carter opposes abortion, stating that human life begins at conception. He is endorsed by Texas Alliance For Life and supports federal restrictions on abortion. - Maintains that human life begins at conception - Endorsed by Texas Alliance For Life - Supports federal restrictions on abortion > “I believe that life begins at conception and that all life is a precious gift from God.” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) > “we must fight for the lives of the hundreds of thousands of unborn children who are aborted in the U.S. every year.” > — John Carter, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/John_Carter_%28Texas%29) ### Healthcare Salience: medium **Justin Early:** Supports affordable healthcare and hospital funding Early supports measures to make healthcare affordable so workers are not forced into financial ruin or job loss over medical bills. He also advocates for fully funding community hospitals. - Make healthcare affordable to prevent workers from quitting jobs due to medical bills - Protect community hospitals from federal funding cuts > “Make healthcare affordable so no one has to quit their job to pay medical bills.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) > “Hospitals are lifelines for our communities. I’ll ensure they remain fully funded and prepared for emergencies.” > — Justin Early, via [Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Justin_Early) **John Carter:** No documented position in our sources ## Polls and markets _Updated Oct 31._ - [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/tx-31-house-election-winner) — TX-31 House Election Winner: Republicans 95.0%, Democrats 4.9% - [Kalshi](https://kalshi.com/events/KXHOUSERACE-TX31-26) — TX-31 House winner?: John Carter 94.0%, Justin Early 6.4% [View this race on 2026election.com](https://www.2026election.com/race/2026-house-tx-31)